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January 14th-17th Winter Storm Cocktail


Tom

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00Z Euro---  catastrophic  if it verifies

 

OMA-

MON 06Z 16-JAN  -1.8     0.9    1024      82      98    0.10     565     546   
MON 12Z 16-JAN  -1.7     3.6    1020      89      98    0.36     563     547   
MON 18Z 16-JAN  -0.3     3.5    1016      96      95    0.62     559     547   
TUE 00Z 17-JAN   0.0     3.6    1013      97      73    0.15     554     544   
TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -0.4     2.3    1010      98      96    0.20     550     542   
TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -1.4    -0.7    1008      94      92    0.09     546     539   
TUE 18Z 17-JAN  -1.9    -3.3    1010      84      66    0.09     547     539

 

LNK-

MON 00Z 16-JAN  -1.2     1.4    1025      61      87    0.03     565     545   
MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.3     1.8    1023      89      97    0.16     564     546   
MON 12Z 16-JAN  -2.1     3.6    1018      93      99    0.49     561     547   
MON 18Z 16-JAN  -0.7     3.2    1015      96      94    0.54     558     546   
TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -0.7     3.2    1012      96      73    0.11     553     543   
TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -1.1     1.2    1011      95      97    0.22     549     541   
TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -2.5    -2.0    1010      92      98    0.16     547     539   
TUE 18Z 17-JAN  -2.2    -2.6    1011      81      59    0.08     549     541

 

even MSP goes RA and FZRA--- a bad sign overall that the WAA is winning out--

TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -3.7     0.1    1021      79      98    0.05     561     544   
TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -1.2     2.8    1016      88      94    0.18     558     545   
TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -0.1     2.4    1010      93      85    0.08     553     544   
TUE 18Z 17-JAN   1.3     1.0    1006      94      97    0.06     547     542   
WED 00Z 18-JAN   0.4    -1.3    1005      99      92    0.13     544     540   
WED 06Z 18-JAN   0.1    -0.8    1006      98      74    0.01     546     541

 

HSI

MON 00Z 16-JAN  -2.5     0.6    1025      73      94    0.03     564     545   
MON 06Z 16-JAN  -3.0     1.4    1023      84      98    0.08     563     545   
MON 12Z 16-JAN  -3.1     2.4    1017      92      96    0.35     559     546   
MON 18Z 16-JAN  -2.8    -1.8    1016      93      86    0.35     556     543   
TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -3.3    -1.3    1015      92      95    0.10     552     540   
TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -3.9    -2.7    1014      90      87    0.08     550     539   
TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -4.3    -3.0    1013      88      82    0.03     549     539

 

DSM-

MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.0     1.6    1026      71      98    0.02     566     545   
MON 12Z 16-JAN  -1.6     3.8    1022      89      99    0.22     565     548   
MON 18Z 16-JAN  -0.4     5.6    1018      96      97    0.54     563     549   
TUE 00Z 17-JAN   0.8     5.8    1013      99      92    0.20     558     548   
TUE 06Z 17-JAN   2.2     4.0    1009      99      79    0.19     554     547   
TUE 12Z 17-JAN   2.0    -2.1    1007      96      55    0.00     548     543   
TUE 18Z 17-JAN   1.9    -0.2    1006      89      88    0.01     545     540   
WED 00Z 18-JAN  -0.3    -2.9    1010      78      56    0.01     551     543

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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follow $$'s details and the above raw #'s with this QPF and it's just not a good situation-- one thing to think about is that the Euro has gradually been shifting the ice N and W with time. If that trend continues,, it will be Sioux City to FSD  to MSP that see the crap.

ecmwfued-null--usnc-180-A-72hrqpf.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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MHK (Manhattan,KS)   I don't even know if something like this has happened before in these areas in recorded history--

 

FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.8     1.4    1038      36      75    0.01     574     545   
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.2     2.6    1037      57      40    0.01     574     546   
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -4.5     3.5    1036      54      90    0.00     575     547   
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -4.2     3.1    1035      57      35    0.01     574     546   
SAT 18Z 14-JAN  -2.4     3.9    1034      46      55    0.00     574     547   
SUN 00Z 15-JAN  -2.5     4.0    1032      70      94    0.04     573     548   
SUN 06Z 15-JAN  -3.1     3.1    1031      80      92    0.24     572     547   
SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -3.2     3.0    1029      88      98    0.15     569     546   
SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -2.7     3.9    1026      94      99    0.56     568     547   
MON 00Z 16-JAN  -2.1     5.1    1023      95     100    0.28     567     549   
MON 06Z 16-JAN  -1.8     7.1    1019      97      99    0.66     565     550   
MON 12Z 16-JAN  -0.2     6.6    1011      98      82    0.65     560     551   
MON 18Z 16-JAN   4.0     6.1    1009      99      62    0.05     554     547   
TUE 00Z 17-JAN   3.1     1.4    1008      99      90    0.10     549     543   
TUE 06Z 17-JAN   0.3     0.3    1010      98      81    0.02     550     542   
TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -1.4    -0.8    1011      91      83    0.01     549     540

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Guest Snowball

Weather Channel can't stop talking about the ice event this weekend. That's all they been talking about since 5:30. Cantore is in Lake tahoe. They have had 114 inches of snow in 3 days. Much more higher up

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Weather Channel can't stop talking about the ice event this weekend. That's all they been talking about since 5:30. Cantore is in Lake tahoe. They have had 114 inches of snow in 3 days. Much more higher up

One spot got 38" in 24 hours...pure heaven!

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Disclamer - when you see the CO front range, Dakotas to UP of Mich getting slammed with snow, you got a season that's at least behaving like a Nino, regardless of what ENSO graphs say. Call it delayed response or due to Modiki signature or whatever you want to call it, but it is what it is and there's no white washing it for those that keep getting warm rainers.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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My forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies along with cold temps this weekend. It keeps the storminess to my south. :unsure:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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As I am likely one of the younger members on this forum, I have never actually experienced an ice storm. That being said, I do not really want to... Hopefully the models are incorrect on this one as it would be catastrophic for much of the central CONUS. The models seemed to have been trending north a bit lately bringing those of us in MN into the mess this system could create.

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It's almost a game of QPF now. How much ice do we get  vs. if it will happen.  It's such a vast area I don't think there's any question as to if we don't get any. Crazy that the EURO/CMC/GFS all show ice in the catastrophic category for Eastern Nebraska, esp. towards the Lincoln/Hastings area. 

 

EDIT: Where is CentralNebWeather at?!?! Looks like he'll actually get some snow out of this.

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Well, GFS is a devastating ice storm from Texas up thru Nebraska and on East with heavy snow off to the Northwest. The Canadian has a little more snow on top of the ice. This is looking like a mess........

 

Hard to tell from total maps, what comes first? Are you saying that it's ice > snow for those lucky enough to get snow, or is it more the reverse? Snow > ice > rain even?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hard to tell from total maps, what comes first? Are you saying that it's ice > snow for those lucky enough to get snow, or is it more the reverse? Snow > ice > rain even?

Looks to me like rain/ice first....then a deformation band forms with the snow as the low shifts off to the northeast. Talk about a slow mover, looks like a 2 day event. 

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It's almost a game of QPF now. How much ice do we get  vs. if it will happen.  It's such a vast area I don't think there's any question as to if we don't get any. Crazy that the EURO/CMC/GFS all show ice in the catastrophic category for Eastern Nebraska, esp. towards the Lincoln/Hastings area. 

 

EDIT: Where is CentralNebWeather at?!?! Looks like he'll actually get some snow out of this.

I think he lives in Holdrege, it looks like ice over to snow for him. I"m right on the line of ice changing to snow. It's still way to early in the game to talk temp profiles though, it will be a thread the needle situation for a lot of folks! 

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He think he lives in Holdrege I think, it looks like ice over to snow for him. I"m right on the line of ice changing to snow. It's still way to early in the game to talk temp profiles though, it will be a thread the needle situation for a lot of folks! 

True, definitely a thread the needle type of event.

 

I don't like my chances of snow in Lincoln, too far south. I think our chances of freezing rain are compromised even. We'll see. If these pan out, then there's going to be major problems for this city.

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This GFS run brings the storm in Sunday-ish now compared to Wed on last run haha. Lines up more with the other models. This is looking more and more like an ice storm for a lot of us. The last big one i experienced was Feb 07 when we had nearly 2" of ice. Poles were snapped.....lines down....power was out for 3 days...up to a week in some areas.

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This GFS run brings the storm in Sunday-ish now compared to Wed on last run haha. Lines up more with the other models. This is looking more and more like an ice storm for a lot of us. The last big one i experienced was Feb 07 when we had nearly 2" of ice. Poles were snapped.....lines down....power was out for 3 days...up to a week in some areas.

I remember that. It was crazy!!

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Looks like the GFS is a bit warmer than the other models through the weekend. Something to keep an eye on. Also of importance is the role that the deep fresh snowpack will have on surface temps for those in the northern part of the sub (assuming precip makes it that far).

 

One of the more complex storms we've seen in a while for sure.

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Looks like the GFS is a bit warmer than the other models through the weekend. Something to keep an eye on. Also of importance is the role that the deep fresh snowpack will have on surface temps for those in the northern part of the sub (assuming precip makes it that far).

 

One of the more complex storms we've seen in a while for sure.

 

Peeps saying be careful with GFS's apparent warm 2m temps as it handles low level cold rather poorly. Shorter range guidance all pointing to the freezing line being well south of GFS's portrayal for first wave of precip fwiw.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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