January 14th-17th Winter Storm Cocktail

[Money]

what about mby and yby?

Not home right now but I saw a map accumulation map and was only through HR 144 but it had the 0.4 line through southern mn and wi

 

Couldn't see farther north than that

[Money]

It also showed NE KS and SE NE with 2 inches of fzr

[Snowlover76]

I'm not worried yet though

[james1976]

I have an eerie feeling about this storm. All models showing an ice storm we havent seen in a while.

[Snowlover76]

I have an eerie feeling about this storm. All models showing an ice storm we havent seen in a while.

I'll worry Friday night if it's still there

[Madtown]

Thunderstorms in mke?

[Grizzcoat]

Not much time right now-- well do more sites when time permits.

 

12Z euro

 

DSM

MON 00Z 16-JAN  -1.9     3.1    1024      81      73    0.01     565     546   
MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.4     4.0    1023      89      73    0.00     565     547   
MON 12Z 16-JAN  -2.4     5.2    1019      95      99    0.32     564     549   
MON 18Z 16-JAN  -0.8     5.3    1016      98      85    0.61     561     548   
TUE 00Z 17-JAN   0.0     6.3    1012      99      86    0.03     556     546   
TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -0.1     2.7    1011      99      86    0.32     551     542   
TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -0.4     0.0    1013      95      59    0.03     555     545

 

OMA-

 

SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -1.7     2.1    1026      66      89    0.01     566     546   
MON 00Z 16-JAN  -1.8     3.2    1023      80      87    0.01     565     547   
MON 06Z 16-JAN  -1.8     4.6    1021      89      89    0.01     565     548   
MON 12Z 16-JAN  -1.8     4.9    1017      95     100    0.48     562     548   
MON 18Z 16-JAN  -0.4     4.4    1015      97      26    0.31     558     546   
TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -0.7     3.1    1013      96      96    0.04     552     541   
TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -0.9     1.2    1014      94      66    0.06     552     541

 

ALO-

 

MON 12Z 16-JAN  -2.1     3.5    1021      75      86    0.02     564     547   
MON 18Z 16-JAN  -1.1     4.0    1018      94      99    0.47     562     547   
TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -0.3     5.0    1015      98      66    0.09     558     546   
TUE 06Z 17-JAN   0.4     5.0    1011      99      97    0.04     553     545   
TUE 12Z 17-JAN   0.1     1.9    1009      99      52    0.20     553     546   
TUE 18Z 17-JAN   1.1     1.2    1012      87      72    0.01     553     543

[Jaycee]

Not much time right now-- well do more sites when time permits.

 

12Z euro

 

DSM

MON 00Z 16-JAN -1.9 3.1 1024 81 73 0.01 565 546

MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.4 4.0 1023 89 73 0.00 565 547

MON 12Z 16-JAN -2.4 5.2 1019 95 99 0.32 564 549

MON 18Z 16-JAN -0.8 5.3 1016 98 85 0.61 561 548

TUE 00Z 17-JAN 0.0 6.3 1012 99 86 0.03 556 546

TUE 06Z 17-JAN -0.1 2.7 1011 99 86 0.32 551 542

TUE 12Z 17-JAN -0.4 0.0 1013 95 59 0.03 555 545

 

OMA-

 

SUN 18Z 15-JAN -1.7 2.1 1026 66 89 0.01 566 546

MON 00Z 16-JAN -1.8 3.2 1023 80 87 0.01 565 547

MON 06Z 16-JAN -1.8 4.6 1021 89 89 0.01 565 548

MON 12Z 16-JAN -1.8 4.9 1017 95 100 0.48 562 548

MON 18Z 16-JAN -0.4 4.4 1015 97 26 0.31 558 546

TUE 00Z 17-JAN -0.7 3.1 1013 96 96 0.04 552 541

TUE 06Z 17-JAN -0.9 1.2 1014 94 66 0.06 552 541

 

ALO-

 

MON 12Z 16-JAN -2.1 3.5 1021 75 86 0.02 564 547

MON 18Z 16-JAN -1.1 4.0 1018 94 99 0.47 562 547

TUE 00Z 17-JAN -0.3 5.0 1015 98 66 0.09 558 546

TUE 06Z 17-JAN 0.4 5.0 1011 99 97 0.04 553 545

TUE 12Z 17-JAN 0.1 1.9 1009 99 52 0.20 553 546

TUE 18Z 17-JAN 1.1 1.2 1012 87 72 0.01 553 543

Could you do LNK by any chance? Thanks Grizz!

[gabel23]

Not much time right now-- well do more sites when time permits.

 

12Z euro

 

DSM

MON 00Z 16-JAN  -1.9     3.1    1024      81      73    0.01     565     546   

MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.4     4.0    1023      89      73    0.00     565     547   

MON 12Z 16-JAN  -2.4     5.2    1019      95      99    0.32     564     549   

MON 18Z 16-JAN  -0.8     5.3    1016      98      85    0.61     561     548   

TUE 00Z 17-JAN   0.0     6.3    1012      99      86    0.03     556     546   

TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -0.1     2.7    1011      99      86    0.32     551     542   

TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -0.4     0.0    1013      95      59    0.03     555     545

 

OMA-

 

SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -1.7     2.1    1026      66      89    0.01     566     546   

MON 00Z 16-JAN  -1.8     3.2    1023      80      87    0.01     565     547   

MON 06Z 16-JAN  -1.8     4.6    1021      89      89    0.01     565     548   

MON 12Z 16-JAN  -1.8     4.9    1017      95     100    0.48     562     548   

MON 18Z 16-JAN  -0.4     4.4    1015      97      26    0.31     558     546   

TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -0.7     3.1    1013      96      96    0.04     552     541   

TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -0.9     1.2    1014      94      66    0.06     552     541

 

ALO-

 

MON 12Z 16-JAN  -2.1     3.5    1021      75      86    0.02     564     547   

MON 18Z 16-JAN  -1.1     4.0    1018      94      99    0.47     562     547   

TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -0.3     5.0    1015      98      66    0.09     558     546   

TUE 06Z 17-JAN   0.4     5.0    1011      99      97    0.04     553     545   

TUE 12Z 17-JAN   0.1     1.9    1009      99      52    0.20     553     546   

TUE 18Z 17-JAN   1.1     1.2    1012      87      72    0.01     553     543

And Columbus, NE when you get a chance please! Code: KOLU. 

[hlcater]

here you go everyone 

 

[Guest Snowball]

From hastings Nws this morning.

 

Issued at 807 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

 

An update was recently published primarily to increase winds and

clouds. Used HRRR is blended nicely with current obs. Once frontal

passage occurs...expect winds to dramatically increase to over 20

kts with gusts to around 30 kts. Highest gust we`ve seen so far

is 33 at ODX.

 

Also updated HWO to indicate we have a potentially significant

event on the boards for this weekend.

 

We are seeing potential for significant amts of ice/sleet. Snow

will probably fall on the Nrn fringe of the pcpn shield...but at

this time it is not expected to be the main player.

 

Believe frzg rain and sleet will be the main show. This cold air

coming in now is underrunning. Winds will remain from the S-SE

this weekend in the 5-10K ft layer and this will probably maintain

a warm nose.

 

Suggest everyone prepare for an impactful storm this weekend and

monitor the latest

[Jaycee]

here you go everyone 

 

ecmwf_runice_144_nc.jpg

Is it me or does that look kind of funky? Maybe because of the sleet accumulation?

[Money]

Is it me or does that look kind of funky? Maybe because of the sleet accumulation?

That map is different than the one I saw

[St Paul Storm]

It does seem a little odd based on the path of the low. I expected more ice to the NW of where it shows.

[NEJeremy]

Omaha has less precip overall and nothing on the maps though for freezing rain, despite what looks like a more favorable profile for freezing rain than the 0Z(never gets above freezing at the surface and the warm tongue at 850 is a bit warmer if I remember correctly). Seems a bit funky to me

[Jaycee]

Omaha has less precip overall and nothing on the maps though for freezing rain, despite what looks like a more favorable profile for freezing rain than the 0Z(never gets above freezing at the surface and the warm tongue at 850 is a bit warmer if I remember correctly). Seems a bit funky to me

I can imagine models probably struggle quite a bit with freezing rain though so that's probably why.

 

Money, would you mind posting the map you saw?

[Snowlover76]

You won't really have an idea of the freezing rain areas till around Friday night Saturday morning.

[Guest Snowball]

Hastings just updated and is really hitting things hard! Winter storm watch likely in the next 24 hrs

[Snowlover76]

Hastings just updated and is really hitting things hard! Winter storm watch likely in the next 24 hrs

yea I read that.  They usually have better discussions than Omaha does 

[hlcater]

its gotta be sleet causing the errors on that map, can't think of any other reason why...

[Snowlover76]

its gotta be sleet causing the errors on that map, can't think of any other reason why...

Id rely more on soundings for determing p-type.  Those maps handle this stuff pretty bad IMO 

[hlcater]

Id rely more on soundings for determing p-type.  Those maps handle this stuff pretty bad IMO 

problem is, eurowx does not provide soundings(that I know of)

[Tom]

18z GFS showing a good amount of snow in NW KS/CO/NE...

[Money]

18z GFS (Top)  12z GFS (Bottom) 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011118/144/zr_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011112/150/zr_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

Here's the map I saw on the Euro btw:

 

 

 

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-13767-1484161690_thumb.png

 

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-13767-1484161697_thumb.png

[Snowlover76]

Here's the map I saw on the Euro btw:

 

 

 

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-13767-1484161690_thumb.png

 

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-13767-1484161697_thumb.png

http://i.imgur.com/HOafOK0.jpg

[St Paul Storm]

substantial changes on that 18z run with the low scooting more east than north. Starting at 114hr.

[Money]

Low is weaker and it looks like there's more cold off to the NW (stronger HP?)

 

Here's the temp differences between the two runs.

 

18z:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011118/132/sfct.conus.png

 

 

12z:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011112/138/sfct.conus.png

[Grizzcoat]

Could you do LNK by any chance? Thanks Grizz!

-

SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -3.0     2.4    1028      55      97    0.01     568     546    SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -2.6     2.9    1026      82      90    0.05     567     546    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -2.3     3.4    1023      90      91    0.02     566     548    MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.4     5.2    1021      96      99    0.04     565     548    MON 12Z 16-JAN  -2.1     4.2    1016      96      99    0.57     560     548    MON 18Z 16-JAN  -0.5     3.7    1014      94      46    0.25     556     545    TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -1.1     0.6    1014      95      92    0.16     551     540    TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -2.3     0.1    1016      89      65    0.06     555     543 

[NEJeremy]

About the best thing I am seeing out of this in the ice area is the winds won't be real strong. Hopefully that will keep the outages and damage down some.

[Grizzcoat]

And Columbus, NE when you get a chance please! Code: KOLU. 

-

MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.4     3.5    1021      78      91    0.01     564     547    MON 12Z 16-JAN  -2.5     3.7    1017      91      99    0.34     560     547    MON 18Z 16-JAN  -1.6     1.0    1016      91      76    0.47     556     543    TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -2.0    -0.8    1016      92      68    0.07     553     540    TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -3.4    -0.8    1017      79      82    0.03     555     541 

[Snowlover76]

About the best thing I am seeing out of this in the ice area is the winds won't be real strong. Hopefully that will keep the outages and damage down some.

warms up pretty good as well after so if there is any outages it wont be as bad.  It will stiull suck, but not as much

[Money]

 

-

SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -3.0     2.4    1028      55      97    0.01     568     546    
SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -2.6     2.9    1026      82      90    0.05     567     546    
MON 00Z 16-JAN  -2.3     3.4    1023      90      91    0.02     566     548    
MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.4     5.2    1021      96      99    0.04     565     548    
MON 12Z 16-JAN  -2.1     4.2    1016      96      99    0.57     560     548    
MON 18Z 16-JAN  -0.5     3.7    1014      94      46    0.25     556     545    
TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -1.1     0.6    1014      95      92    0.16     551     540    
TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -2.3     0.1    1016      89      65    0.06     555     543

That's ugly

 

1.14 qpf frozen and temps stay below 32 even after

[Snowlover76]

still a long way out though 

[Grizzcoat]

Watch thins turn into the monster snow event it was last weekend....

[Jaycee]

Watch thins turn into the monster snow event it was last weekend....

I hope so! 1.14" QPF would be incredible with snow. Unfortunately we're in the jackpot, but for freezing rain it's scary how widespread the area is, and the amount of freezing rain that's dropped. Even without wind, this is a dangerous scenario setting up.

[Money]

Watch thins turn into the monster snow event it was last weekend....

I mean it's still 5 days out and not sampled plenty of time for changes.

[Andrew NE]

I feel like we are trapped in eastern NE, this thing would have to shift a lot to get into even minimal icing senecio based off the 18Z GFS. No bueno.

[Money]

I hope so! 1.14" QPF would be incredible with snow. Unfortunately we're in the jackpot, but for freezing rain it's scary how widespread the area is, and the amount of freezing rain that's dropped. Even without wind, this is a dangerous scenario setting up.

We just had a glazing of ice today and it's nasty on the roads and sidewalks

 

Ice sucks and couldn't imagaine getting 1-2 inches of it

[St Paul Storm]

St Louis currently at 70° and under a Winter Storm Watch for up to 0.5" of ice starting tomorrow night. Wild stuff.