January 14th-17th Winter Storm Cocktail

[Niko]

This storm will give me rain and mild temps. What a strange January this has been so far. I have a shot at 50s next week. Unreal!

[Niko]

St Louis currently at 70° and under a Winter Storm Watch for up to 0.5" of ice starting tomorrow night. Wild stuff.

Crazy!

[Money]

GFS farther west/stronger with the HP so far..low is weaker though by about 1-2 mb 

[Grizzcoat]

and slightly further S with 540 thicknesses

[Money]

The low explodes though and it's pretty warm because of how strong it is..

[gabel23]

and slightly further S with 540 thicknesses

Heavy defo band of sleet/ snow along platte river, that's a good sign.

[Grizzcoat]

Yep-- warmer and more NW with ice is my guess

[Grizzcoat]

GFS has consistently being running on the warm side with this -- the opposite with the EURO-- something has to give.

[gabel23]

Lots of snow for central Nebraska, I hope the the gfs is too warm, this could be a hell of a snowstorm for us.

[Money]

GFS Snow:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011200/120/snku_024h.us_c.png

[Money]

GFS Ice:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011200/120/zr_acc.us_mw.png

[Snowlover76]

Looks like lots of sleet forvhere I'd assume

[gabel23]

Nightmare city...............

[Money]

GFS has consistently being running on the warm side with this -- the opposite with the EURO-- something has to give.

 

If the GFS is even a degree or two off, that's a lot of ice in WI/IA. Looks like a lot of the precip falls when it's 33/34 degrees 

[gabel23]

I'm separated by 20 miles of 11" of snow or 3/4 inch ice.

[GDR]

[Snowlover76]

I'm separated by 20 miles of 11" of snow or 3/4 inch ice.

Heaviest snow is always by the mix line. Gotta smell the rain to get the best snow

[ToastedRavs]

If the GFS is even a degree or two off, that's a lot of ice in WI/IA. Looks like a lot of the precip falls when it's 33/34 degrees

Even if air temp is 34, ground temps are colder and more icing will occur. We had that happen Tuesday here. Air temp was 36, but lots of ice on roads because of the ground temps

[Tom]

CentralNeb has been MIA...hope he gets his big snow out of this and those in NE

[Money]

GEM:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017011200/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017011200/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017011200/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

[NEJeremy]

Reading most AFD's they say the GFS is too warm at the surface and feel the Euro is going to be more accurate.

[gabel23]

GEM:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017011200/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017011200/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017011200/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

Is it me or is this coming in stronger?? That's a healthy comma head by both models tonight!

[Money]

GEM hammers gosaints area with snow 

[Money]

GEM 1 foot+ from central/northern NE, SE SD, N. Iowa, southern MN, central/NC WI 

[Money]

GEM would not be good for a lot of areas. Hope it's too cold, because this would be a devastating ice storm in many areas if it's right.. (will post maps once storm's done. Out through hr 90 right now) 

[Money]

GEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011200/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011200/126/snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

Freezing Rain:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011200/126/zr_acc.us_c.png

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011200/126/zr_acc.us_mw.png

[gabel23]

GEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011200/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011200/126/snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

Freezing Rain:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011200/126/zr_acc.us_c.png

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011200/126/zr_acc.us_mw.png

The thermal profile is all messed up on that model. it show 3" of snow for me, no ice and an inch of precip. This will be a nightmare of a forecast.

[gabel23]

Total qpf.

[NEJeremy]

Is the rest sleet?!

 

The thermal profile is all messed up on that model. it show 3" of snow for me, no ice and an inch of precip. This will be a nightmare of a forecast.

[NEJeremy]

Not sure if the freezing rain maps include sleet....

[Money]

The thermal profile is all messed up on that model. it show 3" of snow for me, no ice and an inch of precip. This will be a nightmare of a forecast.

 

It's showing quite a bit of sleet 

[Money]

Purple is sleet:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011200/102/prateptype.us_mw.png

[ToastedRavs]

Not sure if the freezing rain maps include sleet....

That would be negative, ghost Rider

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie is slower.--

[Money]

I think the reason why WI/MN has more snow this run is because of the increase in snowcover? I know Wausau has 12+ on the ground from the last 2 days, and same can be said in central/western WI and I know MN got hit pretty good also.

 

You can kind of see it in the temps on the GEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011200/114/sfct.us_mw.png

[clintbeed1993]

Please no sleet.  That's a complete slap in the face for a snowlover.

[Snowlover76]

The GFS looks like it's the warmest so far. From what I know it usually has issues with lower level cold

[Money]

Please no sleet.  That's a complete slap in the face for a snowlover.

 

I would take sleet over freezing rain any day of the week.

 

Barely had any today and it was still a pain in the a** to drive in

[Grizzcoat]

Being that this system will be so challenging thermally for the models-- I would lay my $$ on the superior physics of the Euro. I know it has not worked out great this winter,,, but lets wait and see on this cocktail.

[Money]

Still a WIDE range of solutions on the GEFS:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017011200/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_18.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017011200/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png