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2017 ENSO Discussion


Tom

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Could there be another El Nino brewing???  I know there isn't much talk about this in many circles, but I find it interesting that the possibility of another Nino is on the table.  Some mets believed the oceans would be cooling in the central Pacific after a very strong Nino a year ago.  Mother Nature may have another trick up her sleeve.

 

Let's discuss...

 

Thus far, the CFSv2 model has a modiki-type El Nino brewing by June/July of this year.  By June, SST's are warming...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017011718/cfs-mon_01_ssta_cpac_5.png

 

 

 

By July, a moderate El Nino has formed...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017011718/cfs-mon_01_ssta_cpac_6.png

 

 

 

By October, a classic modiki signature Nino in the works.  This could be very important to next year's LRC pattern.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017011718/cfs-mon_01_ssta_cpac_9.png

 

 

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The latest JAMSTEC has a weak Nino during the summer months and trends cooler by next Winter...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jan2017.gif

 

 

Summer months....

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2017.1jan2017.gif

 

Autumn...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1jan2017.gif

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Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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The latest JAMSTEC has a weak Nino during the summer months and trends cooler by next Winter...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jan2017.gif

 

 

Summer months....

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2017.1jan2017.gif

 

Autumn...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1jan2017.gif

 

The weakest and shortest El Nino ever? I'm not sure if an El Nino will develop this year?

Edited by Thunder98
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I'm skeptical.

 

It would be unprecedented to have another El Nino so soon after a major multi year event just finished early last year.  Besides that we are at very low solar activity now.  If there is one it should be weak and short lived.  A lot going against this.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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I'm skeptical.

 

It would be unprecedented to have another El Nino so soon after a major multi year event just finished early last year.  Besides that we are at very low solar activity now.  If there is one it should be weak and short lived.  A lot going against this.

 

I agree.  It doesn't seem like the atmospheric conditions would hold together for a long duration Nino.  Something like what the JAMSTEC is indicating may make more sense.

 

Warmer subsurface anomalies are growing of late...colder waters are disappearing rather quickly...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

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Something on the order of a weaker (or warm neutralish) 09-10 type with low solar, enhanced -NAO/-AO and a favorable QBO could be great next winter.

Would be ideal to see it a central based weak Nino, if not warm/neutral as you said.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Latest CFSv2 run showing a solid Modiki El Nino forming in the central PAC by July...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd6.gif

 

 

Intensifies as we approach Oct...this will be an interesting forecast going forward if in fact we see an El Nino.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017013018/cfs-mon_01_ssta_cpac_9.png

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Latest CanSIPS model is trending towards an El Nino late Summer into the Fall/Winter...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017020100/cansips_ssta_noice_cpac_7.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017020100/cansips_ssta_noice_cpac_9.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017020100/cansips_ssta_noice_cpac_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017020100/cansips_ssta_noice_cpac_12.png

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SST subsurface anomalies are surging in the eastern equatorial regions...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

 

ENSO 1.2 region is warming dramatically of late...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif

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From TWC:  La Niña has officially faded away and there is a chance El Niño could develop later this year, according to an update issued Thursday by meteorologists at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Generally weak La Niña conditions have been in place since late fall, meaning cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures stretched across most of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

But an analysis of recent sea surface temperatures indicates water temperatures in that region have retreated to levels that are just slightly below average, and therefore, no longer meeting La Niña criteria.

"Even though it was fairly weak and short-lived ... it did leave impacts," Mike Halpert of NOAA told The Associated Press.

One prominent feature consistent with La Niña this winter has been the above-average temperatures we've seen in the South and mid-Atlantic. The northern Plains saw colder-than-average temperatures in December, which is also consistent with La Niña, but was then near or slightly above average in January.

Perhaps the most pronounced features of La Niña's impact on the atmosphere is the impressively heavy snow and persistent cold in the West, and heavy rainfall near Indonesia. 

(MORE: Winter Storms of 2016-17 Season, So Far)

dec-ssts.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe

The blue area in the red box indicates cooler than average water temperatures during late-December 2016 in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. That indicates La Niña conditions were present. (NOAA)

NOAA expects neutral conditions to persist through the spring, meaning water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean will neither be in the La Niña nor El Niño state.

Looking ahead to later this year, it's possible that El Niño could make a reappearance as some climate models are suggesting. NOAA is giving that about a 50 percent chance of happening sometime September-November.

The colored lines on the image below are various model forecasts for water temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region that is used to determine whether La Niña, El Niño or neutral conditions are present in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Neutral conditions means that neither La Niña or El Niño is present.

Through spring, those lines are clustered between the 0.5 and -0.5 degrees Celsius anomalies, meaning neutral conditions are present as NOAA is forecasting. By late summer or fall, the lines for some of the models exceed an anomaly of 0.5 degrees Cesisus, which means El Niño is forecast by those models. Other the other hand, numerous other models are forecasting neutral conditions to persist during that time. 

NOAA-CPC did caution, however, that these El Niño/La Niña model forecasts this time of year are very uncertain and that the atmospheric response described above remains very typical of La Niña, despite the recent warming of the sea-surface in the equatorial Pacific.

(MORE: Days Getting Longer, Temperatures Turning Warmer)

enso-plumes.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db

Dynamical and statistical model forecasts of three-month mean sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region from spring through next fall. (IRI/CPC)

If El Niño did develop later this year it could have impacts on hurricane season, and possibly weather conditions in the United States next fall or winter. But it's far too early to speculate on that, especially since El Niño may never emerge to begin with.

Last winter (2015-16) featured one of the strongest El Niño events on record, with far-reaching impacts around the globe.

Snowfall for Winter 2024 -25 for Metro Detroit Area 

 

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Summer/Fall SST Anomalies...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2017.1feb2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1feb2017.gif

 

So, did the PDO flip back to the state that favors Nino's? Just wondering cuz it looks like we're on our way to a second spiking Nino in 3 yrs :o

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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So, did the PDO flip back to the state that favors Nino's? Just wondering cuz it looks like we're on our way to a second spiking Nino in 3 yrs :o

There are some differences on how this El Nino develops compared to the '15-'16 Super Nino which was very warm in the eastern equatorial PAC late Summer/Fall and then migrated westward during the winter.  This Nino seems to be evolving more central-based during the summer.

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Unbelievable SOI crash happening.  I've never seen it down to -51..

 

SOI values for 17 Feb 2017 Average for last 30 days -2.33

Average for last 90 days 1.47

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -51.97

 

 

 

The response has been a rapid increase in SST's in the central PAC...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

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Please not a 1.5+ Nino. I'm itching for a decent winter :( unless that's good for our area because it's central based, but it's probably not.

Its hard enough to forecast the nino itself. If anyone pretends they can predict what type nino will show up they are gonna have to get lucky. Its like gfs and its ensembles trying to predict teleconnections in the 8-14 day range

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CFSv2 Weeklies seem to be all-in on a summer El Nino...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd4.gif

 

 

 

 

 

By early Autumn, a central based Nino is present as ENSO 1.2 cools some...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif

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Subsurface warm anomalies starting to really blossom...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

The entire equatorial PAC is nearly at, or above normal now...this has been a fast warming period.  El Nino is coming around the corner.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

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Looks like pretty good placement to me. Still wouldn't put an extreme amount of faith in a nino of much significance though.

Still to far out to pin point any details, but I find this map interesting from the CFSv2.  Here is a comparison from the Fall 2015 Nino to the forecast Nino this Fall in terms of velocity potential.  #Modiki

 

C5_YAK7UsAEcL1_.jpg

 

 

 

 

C5_YBOzVMAAqzYF.jpg

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