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2017 ENSO Discussion

Tom

By Tom
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OKwx2k4
OKwx2k4

I saved as much data as I could find back in 2007 and 2008, then printed as much of it as I could find and put it in binders.   It's easier to move the goalposts than to learn to kick better. Lol. Sad

OKwx2k4
OKwx2k4

I'd do a 100 year repeat. 60 days of snowcover and depths over 3ft at times would be pandemonium here in modern times. Lol   Incredibly similar climate period now also but nowadays people don't use da

OKwx2k4
OKwx2k4

This is one of the best SST maps I've honestly ever seen from where I stand. I have never seen more features that argue for a lengthy cold winter in my life.  

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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My call was ENSO 3.4 region to bottom out around -1.2 during the heart of winter.  Latest Euro run more bullish with the Nina...which has been the trend over the last several months.  It'll be close, but a moderate Nina is probably not happening, however, reaching moderate intensity during the DFM period is on the table.  

 

 

ps2png-atls13-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

 

 

I did some digging, and the winter of 1995-96 was rated a moderate strength Nina (-0.9C).  Technically, this should we categorized as a weak Nina but for the sake of comparison, let's just roll with it.  See link

 

 

Climate models are predicting a similar strength ENSO event for this winter.  Ironically, look at how cold Nov '95 was and compare it to this year thus far.

 

 

 

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Difference being the stunning temp gradient this year. A better scenario imho.

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Impressive La Nina forcing ongoing is setting new lows in the ENSO 3.4 region...

 

Other than rollercoaster temps, are we going to see the much anticipated moisture facet of a Nina tho? Sure would be nice..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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