Tom Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Could there be another El Nino brewing??? I know there isn't much talk about this in many circles, but I find it interesting that the possibility of another Nino is on the table. Some mets believed the oceans would be cooling in the central Pacific after a very strong Nino a year ago. Mother Nature may have another trick up her sleeve. Let's discuss... Thus far, the CFSv2 model has a modiki-type El Nino brewing by June/July of this year. By June, SST's are warming... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017011718/cfs-mon_01_ssta_cpac_5.png By July, a moderate El Nino has formed... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017011718/cfs-mon_01_ssta_cpac_6.png By October, a classic modiki signature Nino in the works. This could be very important to next year's LRC pattern. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017011718/cfs-mon_01_ssta_cpac_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 The new Euro Seasonal has a modiki - El Nino developing durring MJJ period... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 The latest JAMSTEC has a weak Nino during the summer months and trends cooler by next Winter... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jan2017.gif Summer months.... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2017.1jan2017.gif Autumn... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1jan2017.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted January 19, 2017 Report Share Posted January 19, 2017 (edited) The latest JAMSTEC has a weak Nino during the summer months and trends cooler by next Winter... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jan2017.gif Summer months.... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2017.1jan2017.gif Autumn... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1jan2017.gif The weakest and shortest El Nino ever? I'm not sure if an El Nino will develop this year? Edited January 19, 2017 by Thunder98 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 19, 2017 Report Share Posted January 19, 2017 I'm skeptical. It would be unprecedented to have another El Nino so soon after a major multi year event just finished early last year. Besides that we are at very low solar activity now. If there is one it should be weak and short lived. A lot going against this. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2017 I'm skeptical. It would be unprecedented to have another El Nino so soon after a major multi year event just finished early last year. Besides that we are at very low solar activity now. If there is one it should be weak and short lived. A lot going against this. I agree. It doesn't seem like the atmospheric conditions would hold together for a long duration Nino. Something like what the JAMSTEC is indicating may make more sense. Warmer subsurface anomalies are growing of late...colder waters are disappearing rather quickly... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2017 CFSv2 is showing a weak Nino during the summer months... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd5.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 19, 2017 Report Share Posted January 19, 2017 Something on the order of a weaker (or warm neutralish) 09-10 type with low solar, enhanced -NAO/-AO and a favorable QBO could be great next winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2017 Something on the order of a weaker (or warm neutralish) 09-10 type with low solar, enhanced -NAO/-AO and a favorable QBO could be great next winter.Would be ideal to see it a central based weak Nino, if not warm/neutral as you said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2017 More model guidance suggesting, at best, a weak Nino this summer... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Subsurface waters have been warming in the eastern equatorial regions...more robust warming in the western region... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2017 Latest CFSv2 run showing a solid Modiki El Nino forming in the central PAC by July... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd6.gif Intensifies as we approach Oct...this will be an interesting forecast going forward if in fact we see an El Nino. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017013018/cfs-mon_01_ssta_cpac_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Latest CanSIPS model is trending towards an El Nino late Summer into the Fall/Winter... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017020100/cansips_ssta_noice_cpac_7.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017020100/cansips_ssta_noice_cpac_9.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017020100/cansips_ssta_noice_cpac_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017020100/cansips_ssta_noice_cpac_12.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2017 SST subsurface anomalies are surging in the eastern equatorial regions... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif ENSO 1.2 region is warming dramatically of late... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 10, 2017 Report Share Posted February 10, 2017 From TWC: La Niña has officially faded away and there is a chance El Niño could develop later this year, according to an update issued Thursday by meteorologists at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.Generally weak La Niña conditions have been in place since late fall, meaning cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures stretched across most of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean.But an analysis of recent sea surface temperatures indicates water temperatures in that region have retreated to levels that are just slightly below average, and therefore, no longer meeting La Niña criteria."Even though it was fairly weak and short-lived ... it did leave impacts," Mike Halpert of NOAA told The Associated Press.One prominent feature consistent with La Niña this winter has been the above-average temperatures we've seen in the South and mid-Atlantic. The northern Plains saw colder-than-average temperatures in December, which is also consistent with La Niña, but was then near or slightly above average in January.Perhaps the most pronounced features of La Niña's impact on the atmosphere is the impressively heavy snow and persistent cold in the West, and heavy rainfall near Indonesia. (MORE: Winter Storms of 2016-17 Season, So Far)The blue area in the red box indicates cooler than average water temperatures during late-December 2016 in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. That indicates La Niña conditions were present. (NOAA) NOAA expects neutral conditions to persist through the spring, meaning water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean will neither be in the La Niña nor El Niño state.Looking ahead to later this year, it's possible that El Niño could make a reappearance as some climate models are suggesting. NOAA is giving that about a 50 percent chance of happening sometime September-November.The colored lines on the image below are various model forecasts for water temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region that is used to determine whether La Niña, El Niño or neutral conditions are present in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Neutral conditions means that neither La Niña or El Niño is present.Through spring, those lines are clustered between the 0.5 and -0.5 degrees Celsius anomalies, meaning neutral conditions are present as NOAA is forecasting. By late summer or fall, the lines for some of the models exceed an anomaly of 0.5 degrees Cesisus, which means El Niño is forecast by those models. Other the other hand, numerous other models are forecasting neutral conditions to persist during that time. NOAA-CPC did caution, however, that these El Niño/La Niña model forecasts this time of year are very uncertain and that the atmospheric response described above remains very typical of La Niña, despite the recent warming of the sea-surface in the equatorial Pacific.(MORE: Days Getting Longer, Temperatures Turning Warmer)Dynamical and statistical model forecasts of three-month mean sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region from spring through next fall. (IRI/CPC)If El Niño did develop later this year it could have impacts on hurricane season, and possibly weather conditions in the United States next fall or winter. But it's far too early to speculate on that, especially since El Niño may never emerge to begin with.Last winter (2015-16) featured one of the strongest El Niño events on record, with far-reaching impacts around the globe. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 The latest Feb run of the JAMSTEC certainly has a #El NINO (weak to moderate) by Summer and rolling into next Winter... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1feb2017.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 Hopefully this will trend to be a Modoki Nino... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.ninomdk.fcst.1feb2017.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 Summer/Fall SST Anomalies... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2017.1feb2017.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1feb2017.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 Summer/Fall SST Anomalies... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2017.1feb2017.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1feb2017.gif So, did the PDO flip back to the state that favors Nino's? Just wondering cuz it looks like we're on our way to a second spiking Nino in 3 yrs Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 So, did the PDO flip back to the state that favors Nino's? Just wondering cuz it looks like we're on our way to a second spiking Nino in 3 yrs There are some differences on how this El Nino develops compared to the '15-'16 Super Nino which was very warm in the eastern equatorial PAC late Summer/Fall and then migrated westward during the winter. This Nino seems to be evolving more central-based during the summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 Central based Niño with a more favorable qbo already has me wanting to skip summer and start next winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 Central based Niño with a more favorable qbo already has me wanting to skip summer and start next winter.Dont do this to yourself again 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 Unbelievable SOI crash happening. I've never seen it down to -51.. SOI values for 17 Feb 2017 Average for last 30 days -2.33Average for last 90 days 1.47Daily contribution to SOI calculation -51.97 The response has been a rapid increase in SST's in the central PAC... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 The latest EURO ENSO plume...#El Nino Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 17, 2017 Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 Please not a 1.5+ Nino. I'm itching for a decent winter unless that's good for our area because it's central based, but it's probably not. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 17, 2017 Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 Please not a 1.5+ Nino. I'm itching for a decent winter unless that's good for our area because it's central based, but it's probably not.Its hard enough to forecast the nino itself. If anyone pretends they can predict what type nino will show up they are gonna have to get lucky. Its like gfs and its ensembles trying to predict teleconnections in the 8-14 day range Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 17, 2017 Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 Its hard enough to forecast the nino itself. If anyone pretends they can predict what type nino will show up they are gonna have to get lucky. Its like gfs and its ensembles trying to predict teleconnections in the 8-14 day rangeReally just have to use history as a guide and hope for the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 Really just have to use history as a guide and hope for the best.Ya it will be months until we have a real.idea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 CFSv2 Weeklies seem to be all-in on a summer El Nino... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd4.gif By early Autumn, a central based Nino is present as ENSO 1.2 cools some... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2017 Euro Monthly SST's showing a moderate Nino by July... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Only case study for this I've found since 1950 at a quick glance would be some mid-60s analogs. 62-63 and 64-65 if I'm not mistaken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 Subsurface warm anomalies starting to really blossom... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif The entire equatorial PAC is nearly at, or above normal now...this has been a fast warming period. El Nino is coming around the corner. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2017 The latest CanSIPS model is also suggesting a "Modiki" El Nino for the summer months... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017030100/cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_cpac_4.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2017 Another look from the CanSIPS "Modiki" El Nino in August...central PAC convection... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 1, 2017 Report Share Posted March 1, 2017 Looks like pretty good placement to me. Still wouldn't put an extreme amount of faith in a nino of much significance though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Looks like pretty good placement to me. Still wouldn't put an extreme amount of faith in a nino of much significance though.Still to far out to pin point any details, but I find this map interesting from the CFSv2. Here is a comparison from the Fall 2015 Nino to the forecast Nino this Fall in terms of velocity potential. #Modiki Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 7, 2017 Report Share Posted March 7, 2017 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 9, 2017 Report Share Posted March 9, 2017 As long as forcing stays west of the dateline and the QBO cooperates, everything should be fine. I like the placement of the forcing as modeled. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 9, 2017 Report Share Posted March 9, 2017 I cant wait till summer is here. So sick of this meh cold. I want sun and warmth so I can go fishing a few times each week 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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