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2017 ENSO Discussion


Tom

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Can you see the overall basin-wide PAC cooling trend???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

Between this and your "Arctic Chill" it looks like Ice Age incoming! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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So we're looking at a cool summer and a cold winter? Didn't we have a summer like this before that one super good winter a few years ago?

I believe in 2013 we did. Also we had a similar summer in 2009 if I'm not mistaken.

 

Edit. Did some quick checking and looks to me like 2009 would be the perfect match for this summer as far as temp anomalies are concerned.

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I believe in 2013 we did. Also we had a similar summer in 2009 if I'm not mistaken.

 

Edit. Did some quick checking and looks to me like 2009 would be the perfect match for this summer as far as temp anomalies are concerned.

Yeah 09 and 13 were chilly. Great winters to follow.
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Boy, here is another model really backing off the Nino for this Summer.  Latest CanSIPS run suggesting a meager Nino, if that???

 

Summer...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017060100/cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_global_1.png

 

 

Autumn...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017060100/cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_global_4.png

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Not sure if I buy it, but CPC's long lead forecast still trying to paint a weak Nino with a warmer E PAC for the Summer...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/casst_anom.0.gif

 

 

 

 

Autumn...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/casst_anom.3.gif

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Well, well, well...latest June NMME run is no longer showing an El Nino, but rather, an ENSO-Neutral La Nada during the course of this Summer/Autumn and next Winter????

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/nino34.rescaling.NMME.png

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png

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@ Tom

 

Just see last Dec-March for how that could play out. Namely, other drivers will hold sway and it can go great, or crappy. Thus, not guaranteed. I never bought into a bounce-back to Nino winter. That being said, if this changed from 3 mos ago, what's to say it doesn't paint an entirely different picture 3 mos from today? Maybe it's "trending"? :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Really doubting the chances for an El Niño at this point.

 

Also, odds of a repeat of the last 2 winters would be very slim in my opinion. The QBO flip and low solar will see to that. I'm really looking forward to this coming winter.

Fresh Hot Off the Press:

 

 

 

IRI ENSO Forecast CPC/IRI ENSO Update Published: June 8, 2017

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued jointly by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017.

 

 

Trends are not favoring an El Nino at this points.

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Well, I guess I made 2 very timely posts today. :)

 

#FailNiño

I'm curious what the JAMSTEC/EURO/JMA seasonal will be showing for this month.  I think the public Euro comes out on the 15th and the JAMSTEC give or take a few days around then.  JMA will be out next week Thursday.

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Tbh, we are due for a harsh winter...its been a while. FWIW...I miss seeing a full blown blizzard. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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A bit more cooling off the coast of Mexico/Baja

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

 

 

June 7th depth anomalies showing some small pockets of warmer water trying to upwell...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

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A bit more cooling off the coast of Mexico/Baja

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

 

 

June 7th depth anomalies showing some small pockets of warmer water trying to upwell...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

I've always thought that warmth near Baja in the late autumn and winter months would be a good thing for my area but the last 2 years have proven it not to be. Maybe this year I will get to study if there really was any effect at all from the water Temps in that region and off cali on winter precipitation and temperatures here and points east.

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Could it be possible?? :o

 

https://youtu.be/fCLBfROEw6w

 

Don't buy the hype..don't fall for it man

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Don't buy the hype..don't fall for it man

How could you not though, those maps are so amazing. :lol: Tbh, sometimes those type of people who forecast end up being correct, instead of the experts. ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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How could you not though, those maps are so amazing. :lol: Tbh, sometimes those type of people who forecast end up being correct, instead of the experts. ;)

 

Oh, for sure, but I don't think even the experts are taking any serious stabs at next winter from this range :lol:  And I'll add, that his video calls for a "weak Nino" which looks less and less likely at this point. That's so hard to pull off, has to be the least frequent ENSO state of all time. Ofc, because it's the one that produced stuff of legend in SMI like this:

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Oh, for sure, but I don't think even the experts are taking any serious stabs at next winter from this range :lol:  And I'll add, that his video calls for a "weak Nino" which looks less and less likely at this point. That's so hard to pull off, has to be the least frequent ENSO state of all time. Ofc, because it's the one that produced stuff of legend in SMI like this:

 

attachicon.gifBlizzard-1978-Michigan-Highway.jpg

Dang! :o

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Drum roll please.....latest JAMSTEC says, "No El Nino for the Summer"...since April, most modeling was insisting on a Strong to nearly borderline Super Nino but over the course of just 2 months the models are now collaborating an ENSO neutral Summer season in the equatorial PAC.

 

Here was the JAMSTEC's April run...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2017.1apr2017.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1apr2017.gif

 

 

Here is today's latest June run...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2017.1jun2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2017.gif

 

 

 

Maybe, just maybe we squeak out a weak Modiki Nino during next Winter...but that is looking less and less likely to get 3-months of .5C or higher.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.ninomdk.fcst.1jun2017.gif

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The JMA, along with all the other climate models, are all flipping much cooler in the PAC.  In fact, the JMA is not showing any signs of warmer waters along the equatorial PAC.  Instead, it's almost signaling a ENSO-Neutral look.

 

 

August...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201706.D1000_gls.png

 

Sept...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201706.D1000_gls.png

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Last but not least, the Euro is following the trends of every other climate model.  #SummerNinoFail...

 

Here were the last 3 months of runs starting from April...

 

ps2png-atls17-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

ps2png-atls19-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

ps2png-atls00-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

 

There is still a lot of variability as to what happens next Fall/Winter but it's not looking very favorable for an El Nino at this stage of the game.  Many more negative anomaly plumes showing up for the first time.

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Here was the IRI/CPC mid-May Plume...

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/figure4-2.gif

 

 

Compare that to the recent mid-June Plume...clearly, the trend is backing away...

 

 

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/figure4.gif

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Makes me wonder whether all this has any positive or negative factors in our upcoming winter, or, if any. :unsure:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The cooling trend in the eastern equatorial PAC continues...I wonder if the cold Antarctic winter is aiding in this development...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

 

You can see the colder anomalies growing up from the south...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif

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I'm going to change the name of this thread to a general "2017 ENSO Discussion".  

 

Or "hunting the ever-elusive weak Nino", which looks to escape capture once again. Did you at one time post a graphic showing the weak nino happens only 20% of the time (that there's a nino, that is)?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Or "hunting the ever-elusive weak Nino", which looks to escape capture once again. Did you at one time post a graphic showing the weak nino happens only 20% of the time (that there's a nino, that is)?

I don't think so.  It may have been someone else.  With that being said, ENSO-neutral conditions would be ideal for many of us on here for next winter if you want the cold.

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I don't think so.  It may have been someone else.  With that being said, ENSO-neutral conditions would be ideal for many of us on here for next winter if you want the cold.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't we go into last winter in NEUT range, only to have the winter play out like a Nino, thus all the "Nino hang-over" talk? Certainly Cali folks got the Nino treatment a year later than expected

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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