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2017 ENSO Discussion


Tom

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Now that I'm fine with a solid Nina I guess that's good news Tom. I may go out on a limb yet, though it won't be for our backyards

Depends on how much that ridge will want to fight back this year.  Seeing signs it may be something to deal with.

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Not me! Absolutely horrible snow here, and I don't mean horribly high.

 

Sadly (since we share a forum) what works for you guys fails for us and vice-versa. Rare will be the season that both ends of this wide forum region has a banner winter.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Sadly (since we share a forum) what works for you guys fails for us and vice-versa. Rare will be the season that both ends of this wide forum region has a banner winter.

2000-2001 says hello

 

How was 2003-04 over there? Awesome here, though it ended way early.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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2000-2001 says hello

 

How was 2003-04 over there? Awesome here, though it ended way early.

 

A decent storm right at Christmas (always unique and scores a lot of bonus points in my book) and one solid 10" storm in end of Jan I think it was. Those two events were winter, not the best of seasons in my book.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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With technically a second year "CP based" Niña this year and clear forcing west of the dateline, 2000 is looking stronger. One of the craziest weather Decembers in my area. Cold icy and snowy for a solid month.

CFSv2 leading the pack of all the global models since early summer on the idea of a La Niña. Latest ECMWF monthlies finally caught onto the Nina for Winter. I think we see a central based Nina which will bode better for you.

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Huge blob of cold waters growing and lurking just below the surface...notice the placement of the coldest anomalies between 160W-120W suggesting a central-based Nina is in the works.

 

CFSv2 for the win???

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

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Squarely puts 2000-01 and 2010-11 back in good spots on an analog list imo.

For me that'd be a choice tween an awesome winter that was only 6 wks in duration, or a winter that didn't really get legs until GHD.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It's official, CPC has issued a La Nina Watch: 55-60% likelihood

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure07.gif

:D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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"notice the placement of the coldest anomalies between 160W-120W suggesting a central-based Nina is in the works."

 

So, how's a central help vs an east biased? You're much more studied in these things Than myself

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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"notice the placement of the coldest anomalies between 160W-120W suggesting a central-based Nina is in the works."

 

So, how's a central help vs an east biased? You're much more studied in these things Than myself

From the research I have done, a central based Niña doesn't have much different impacts compared to a east based Niña. On the flip side, when your talking about central or east based Niño events there is a big difference.

 

I think the strength of the Niña will play a key role and dominate the northern stream. I did read that a central based Niña supports a +NAO so we'll have to see how that plays out.

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z

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Boy, the ECMWF was really bad trying to figure out the Nina.  Look at the last 3 month period and where it is trending.  CFSv2 by far was the better model out of them all.  I knew it would trend cooler this month.

 

June...

 

ps2png-atls13-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

 

July...

 

ps2png-atls14-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

Aug...

 

ps2png-atls14-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

Sept...(current period)

 

ps2png-atls13-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

 

The flip to cooler is about as bad as the JMA from previous run for OND...

 

Last month...

 

ps2png-atls12-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

Current run...

 

ps2png-atls12-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

 

 

The Euro had no clue a Nina was coming last month for boreal Winter...

 

August run...

 

ps2png-atls15-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

 

vs...Sept (current run)

 

ps2png-atls13-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

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The Euro had no clue a Nina was coming last month for boreal Winter...

 

Yeah, everything's got it's strengths and weaknesses, and you've done a great job of illustrating the mighty Euro's Achilles Heel - Season to bi-annual range stuff. Nice work tracking this stuff bud!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Prepared by Climate Prediction Center/ NCEP:  Lots of useful information

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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  • 2 weeks later...

Wow, check out this gigantic blob of cold waters lurking just beneath the surface of the equatorial PAC...approaching -4C/-5C!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

Yeah, in that winter vid I posted, it's noted that the CFSv2 is the model really dragging the avg down on the NMME graphs, but it may just be schooling the other models!  :o

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like they're a little more bullish on a Nina (as of 9-14):

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like they're a little more bullish on a Nina (as of 9-14):

 

attachicon.gif20171002 ENSO chart from 9-14.PNG

Liking the looks of it so far.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I know it looks crazy cold but I'm still hanging around the -0.8 mark at best.

 

And tbh, 2013-14 was neutral and we in SMI have some of our best winters with a La Nada, so I'm only "into" any stronger Nina as a means to secure a wetter season ala 07-08

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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And tbh, 2013-14 was neutral and we in SMI have some of our best winters with a La Nada, so I'm only "into" any stronger Nina as a means to secure a wetter season ala 07-08

In most mod-major Niña events (2010 being an awesome exception) I get dry and warm so yes, you would be cool and wet and all of my snow stays out west of I-44 until late spring. That's the worst case scenario possible if you ask me. If you erase 2 major events from 2010-11, it really would have been an average winter for me. The atmosphere just worked at a time it really wasn't supposed to. A "perfect storm" of events I guess. Lol.

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Per BAMwx

 

Heading down into Nina territory again

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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FYI from Hoosier @ Amwx:

  

Just a note... there's a new data set for ONI calculations, and the change makes it so that the anomalies are warmer than the previous data... i.e., the 2015-16 super El Nino now has a "warmer" peak trimonthly of +2.6 (compared to +2.3 before).  This means that it's going to be more unlikely to have this upcoming Nina peak at moderate via ONI, and depending on how things develop, it might even struggle to get into weak territory for the required 5 consecutive tri-month overlap period.

 

When I read that a few days back, I couldn't help but think that "they moved the goalposts!" Kind of like changing the formula for how an MLB player's batting avg is calculated if you ask me. What do you do with historical data??  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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When I read that a few days back, I couldn't help but think that "they moved the goalposts!" Kind of like changing the formula for how an MLB player's batting avg is calculated if you ask me. What do you do with historical data??

I saved as much data as I could find back in 2007 and 2008, then printed as much of it as I could find and put it in binders.

 

It's easier to move the goalposts than to learn to kick better. Lol. Sad but true. Sadly the last 10 years, in my opinion, we've seen a lot of things like that. I remember when forecasters actually forecasted and reasoned a little bit (right or wrong) rather than riding a model worse than I do. Now they have an excuse. ("We were wrong, BUT 'The model said...'") Lol. Just an overshare of an opinion but that's what stuff like that makes me think about.

 

I should have went into climatology out of high school. I respect honest research too much to compromise it's integrity.

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When I read that a few days back, I couldn't help but think that "they moved the goalposts!" Kind of like changing the formula for how an MLB player's batting avg is calculated if you ask me. What do you do with historical data??  

 

Why did they changed ONI format again? Seems kind of weird

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I ask too many questions to believe everything they say anymore. Like how can you adjust global temps upward since 1998 but still contend that a Nino of (officially, for now at least) the exact same strength in 2015-16 is higher relative to average? Stuff like that cannot make sense to me.

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Why did they changed ONI format again? Seems kind of weird

Very good question, and it does make you wonder about their real motives?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Expert opinion in agreement for a weak La Nina development.

 

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Expert opinion in agreement for a weak La Nina development.

 

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html

 

Perhaps, but not overwhelmingly so.

 

Key takeaways:

 

 

In summary:

  • Sea surface temperatures in eastern tropical Pacific have recently cooled, approaching La Niña levels, while atmospheric patterns have largely remained ENSO-neutral;
  • Models surveyed and expert opinion suggest that weak La Niña conditions may develop, with about 50-55% probability, in the final quarter of 2017;
  • If La Niña conditions do develop before the end of 2017, they are likely to be weak, and would likely return to ENSO-neural in the first quarter of 2018;
  • Continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions is also a plausible scenario, with 45-50% likelihood;
  • Emergence of El Niño can be practically ruled out.

 

Sounding more La Nida-ish every update!  Perfect if you ask me. Split the uprights ftw!!  :lol:

 

-QBO with "La Nida" ENSO:

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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