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January 24th/25th Possible Winter Storm Probable Nebraska Screwjob

clintbeed1993

By clintbeed1993
in East of the Rockies

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bud2380
bud2380

I live in Iowa. So I choose the north central region because it's the best view of Iowa. If you're gonna be a **** about I can stop posting and you can pay the $20/month to see it yourself.

Grizzcoat
Grizzcoat

Since I'am a nice guy-- here is MI along with New Brunswick for you and frankie macdonald..

hlcater
hlcater

Just noticed something, this map would likely be snow for quite a lot of IA, but eurowx is flagging it as rain because surface temps are 33-34, while temps at 925, 850 and 500 are all below zero(celsi

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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24 hour trends on the NAM...

 

Yesterday 18z...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012218/namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png

 

Today's 18z....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012318/namconus_asnow_ncus_21.png

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gabel23 Experienced

gabel23

Posted
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24 hour trends on the NAM...

 

Yesterday 18z...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012218/namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png

 

Today's 18z....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012318/namconus_asnow_ncus_21.png

So it's EURO/NAM vs. GFS and GEM. Who we going with?? 

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gabel23 Experienced

gabel23

Posted
Posted

Sigh...

You remember that surprise blizzard back in March of 2007 or 2008?? I was going to college in Lincoln at the time and before I went to bed they were calling for 1-3", then I woke up and we had blizzard warning up, 8-12" of snow and no school!! Maybe this is that storm again....

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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So it's EURO/NAM vs. GFS and GEM. Who we going with?? 

Tonight's runs should provide better detail.  The main energy is begin fully sampled as it's over the Rockies, however, there is this secondary "kicker" that will hit CA later tonight so it may produce some effect on the main low pressure.

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Snowlover76 Newbie

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

You remember that surprise blizzard back in March of 2007 or 2008?? I was going to college in Lincoln at the time and before I went to bed they were calling for 1-3", then I woke up and we had blizzard warning up, 8-12" of snow and no school!! Maybe this is that storm again....

I'd love for that to happen. Not getting my hopes up though.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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FWIW, 12z EPS ticked south also from yesterday's run...

 

Yesterday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012212/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_4.png

 

Today...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012312/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_3.png

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gabel23 Experienced

gabel23

Posted
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I like hearing this update from this morning out of Hastings! I'm in Polk county, highway 92 goes right through my town. Might be in for a surprise......

 

UPDATE Issued at 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Vsbys are finally starting to improve. Only AUH is still at 1/2SM
but it`s up from 1/4 at 935 AM.

Looking at the newly arriving 12Z GFS/NAM/RGEM...I see nothing to
relieve me of the very uncomfortable feeling I have for this
upcoming wintry event that will be on our doorstep tomorrow
morning. The persistent lack of model agreement this close to an
event is very disconcerting...especially because some models and
model runs are suggesting we may have warning-level snowfall (at
least 6" in 12 hrs) over a fairly small portion of our fcst area.

The 00Z EC nudged back far enough S to bring warning-lvl snowfall
from Sherman-Polk counties north.

For what it`s worth...the GFS/NAM/RGEM do agree with each other:
the 700 mb low will track W-E acrs Nrn Neb. So the fact that the
00Z EC track is along I-80 is troublesome...especially given that
the EC almost always gets heavier weight in my fcst decisions vs
any other model.

My fear is we go to conservative on our snow fcst and we end up
with a surprise somewhere.

More later...

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gabel23 Experienced

gabel23

Posted
Posted

Pockets of 1"+ qpf in NE/N IA/WI...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012318/gfs_apcpn_ncus_11.png

 

 

 

I might see nothing, an inch or even 6"....tough call for my area. 

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE

328 PM CST MON JAN 23 2017

 

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92...

 

NEZ039>041-046>049-240600-

/O.NEW.KGID.WW.Y.0003.170124T0900Z-170125T1500Z/

VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORD...GREELEY...SPALDING...SCOTIA...

WOLBACH...FULLERTON...GENOA...LOUP CITY...SHERMAN RESERVOIR...

LITCHFIELD...ST. LIBORY...CENTRAL CITY...STROMSBURG...OSCEOLA...

SHELBY...POLK

328 PM CST MON JAN 23 2017

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM

CST WEDNESDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE...WHICH IS IN

EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

 

* HAZARD...SNOW AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG COULD ALSO

REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO BELOW ONE HALF MILE.

 

* TIMING...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG FROM 3 AM UNTIL NOON

TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY

AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

 

* PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT THERE

IS A RISK OF LOCALLY MORE THAN 6 INCHES WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE

ADVISORY AREA.

 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 MPH TUESDAY

NIGHT...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.

 

* IMPACT...ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK AND SNOW-COVERED. STRONG WINDS

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

I might see nothing, an inch or even 6"....tough call for my area. 

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE

328 PM CST MON JAN 23 2017

 

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92...

 

NEZ039>041-046>049-240600-

/O.NEW.KGID.WW.Y.0003.170124T0900Z-170125T1500Z/

VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORD...GREELEY...SPALDING...SCOTIA...

WOLBACH...FULLERTON...GENOA...LOUP CITY...SHERMAN RESERVOIR...

LITCHFIELD...ST. LIBORY...CENTRAL CITY...STROMSBURG...OSCEOLA...

SHELBY...POLK

328 PM CST MON JAN 23 2017

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM

CST WEDNESDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE...WHICH IS IN

EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

 

* HAZARD...SNOW AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG COULD ALSO

REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO BELOW ONE HALF MILE.

 

* TIMING...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG FROM 3 AM UNTIL NOON

TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY

AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

 

* PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT THERE

IS A RISK OF LOCALLY MORE THAN 6 INCHES WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE

ADVISORY AREA.

 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 MPH TUESDAY

NIGHT...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.

 

* IMPACT...ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK AND SNOW-COVERED. STRONG WINDS

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW.

Hope you score some decent snow!

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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00z NAM has shifted the track a touch south compared to 12z run this morning...

 

12z run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012312/namconus_asnow_ncus_22.png

 

00z run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012400/namconus_asnow_ncus_18.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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That is one juiced up system...ULL feature is a bit farther south this run and goes through E NE...this will have one heckova defo band...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012400/namconus_apcpn_ncus_19.png

 

 

A lot stronger spin in the Upper Levels of the atmosphere compared to 12z...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012400/namconus_z500_vort_ncus_34.png

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Snowlover76 Newbie

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

00z NAM has shifted the track a touch south compared to 12z run this morning...

 

12z run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012312/namconus_asnow_ncus_22.png

 

00z run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012400/namconus_asnow_ncus_18.png

cmon 50 more miles 

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
Posted

That is one juiced up system...ULL feature is a bit farther south this run and goes through E NE...this will have one heckova defo band...

 

 

 

 

A lot stronger spin in the Upper Levels of the atmosphere compared to 12z...

 

Vertabim it doesnt amount to much this far east, only a 1/2 inch according to snowfall maps. I'd assume this is due to surface temps around 34-35.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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