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January 30th-31st Clipper

Tom

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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A Clipper is forecast to originate out of the Yukon Territories of far NW Canada and dive south through Manitoba, CA to close out the month of January.  Models are varying on the strength/track of this system.  Let's discuss the potential to add on more snow to this paltry month in the snow dept.

 

Here was the 06z GFS...

 

 

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Tony
Tony

If we could get a couple weeks like that year for February and then throw in a Blizzard then I would consider this a win for this winter. We would quickly forget how terrible January was.  

Tom
Tom

00z GFS came in a touch south and looks like Snowshoe/Money and north side of DTX get hit...    

Tom
Tom

06z GFS....looking better for MI posters...even WI

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Since it's a clipper I would be watching the trends of the Canadian as it should have a better feel for these type of systems.

I remember using the Canadian during our epic '13/'14 season and it did very well along with the NAM.  Something to consider.

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Tony Enthusiast

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I remember using the Canadian during our epic '13/'14 season and it did very well along with the NAM.  Something to consider.

If we could get a couple weeks like that year for February and then throw in a Blizzard then I would consider this a win for this winter. We would quickly forget how terrible January was.  

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Tom Grand Master

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If we could get a couple weeks like that year for February and then throw in a Blizzard then I would consider this a win for this winter. We would quickly forget how terrible January was.  

If that would happen, we would quickly forget about January!

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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Lets see how this clipper reacts to SMI. Time ta give. January was a complete waste.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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I am hoping I can maybe squeeze out an inch or so from this clipper. Haven't used my snowblower in awhile. Well, I will probably use a broom to clean off the inch or so . :blink:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Probably want this clipper south if those in the lakes want the superbowl storm to deliver

 

For sure. Hate having to rely on the EC and GEM to bring a clipper south like they're trending today, but since we haven't had any clipper pattern this season, we don't even have anything to base an assumption on. Gonna have to ride it out and hope for the best over here in synoptic dead-zone

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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00z GFS...insisting north camp....

 

GFS's MO it seems. With this last storm in the plains, how far out when it finally came a bit south more aligned with other models? Like only a day or 2 iirc? When it comes to clippers though, staying north is more the norm tbh.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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GFS's MO it seems. With this last storm in the plains, how far out when it finally came a bit south more aligned with other models? Like only a day or 2 iirc? When it comes to clippers though, staying north is more the norm tbh.

I believe the GFS came around 2-3 days out.  So far, it does look like a track through N WI/N MI is the way to go.  You will prob see some lake enhancement out of this and have a "white" ground for sure.  On the other hand, this side of LM will continue to stare at bare ground!  Hope somehow this can benefit the both of us.

 

At least the cold from recent days has re-frozen the warm ground so when the snow comes you won't see much melt.

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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I believe the GFS came around 2-3 days out.  So far, it does look like a track through N WI/N MI is the way to go.  You will prob see some lake enhancement out of this and have a "white" ground for sure.  On the other hand, this side of LM will continue to stare at bare ground!  Hope somehow this can benefit the both of us.

 

At least the cold from recent days has re-frozen the warm ground so when the snow comes you won't see much melt.

Exactly.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Posted

I believe the GFS came around 2-3 days out.  So far, it does look like a track through N WI/N MI is the way to go.  You will prob see some lake enhancement out of this and have a "white" ground for sure.  On the other hand, this side of LM will continue to stare at bare ground!  Hope somehow this can benefit the both of us.

 

At least the cold from recent days has re-frozen the warm ground so when the snow comes you won't see much melt.

 

It finally hit freezing in Marshall yesterday evening but hardly a hard plummet scenario, lol. We've got our work cut out to get soil back to frozen solidly to any meaningful depth. My ground was actually white (grass only attm) since the squalls that started about 4:30 yesterday. Again, the real stuff (2-3") hit the 2 counties between work and home where the ground is nicely white, though plows weren't needed or used on the freeways (chemical plow as they say worked fine with the temps). Lakeshore had flakes flying all day, but nothing stuck til you got inland a few miles. About 10 miles inland was like you drove through an invisible curtain into winter!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

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It finally hit freezing in Marshall yesterday evening but hardly a hard plummet scenario, lol. We've got our work cut out to get soil back to frozen solidly to any meaningful depth. My ground was actually white (grass only attm) since the squalls that started about 4:30 yesterday. Again, the real stuff (2-3") hit the 2 counties between work and home where the ground is nicely white, though plows weren't needed or used on the freeways (chemical plow as they say worked fine with the temps). Lakeshore had flakes flying all day, but nothing stuck til you got inland a few miles. About 10 miles inland was like you drove through an invisible curtain into winter!

I find it interesting how warm it is for adjacent lakeside counties in the dead of winter from the above normal and ice free waters of LM.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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12z GGEM...still not backing down on the snowy idea...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012712/gem_asnow_ncus_19.png

 

:D Today's suite trends are our friends across SWMI..that'd be a sweet hit right there on the GEM...Navgem likes us as well:

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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:D Today's suite trends are our friends across SWMI..that'd be a sweet hit right there on the GEM...Navgem likes us as well:

 

attachicon.gif20170127 NAVGEM 6z 96-102hr Surf.PNG

:o 6+" for you. Sweet.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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:o 6+" for you. Sweet.

 

yeah, lovin it, but tbh I think that's all the little clippers together across SWMI since the map doesn't say "48hr snowfall", etc..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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12z Euro similar to the Canadian with track...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012712/ecmwf_T850_ncus_5.png

 

Have any 2M wind maps by any chance? And/or the GEFS at this range to go with the post below from gosaints?

 

For a 96 hour prog all 3 models are pretty locked in

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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@ Jaster, here were the 18z GEFS precip maps....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012718/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_20.png

Thx but meant SLP clustering map tbh

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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06z GEFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012806/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_12.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012806/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_14.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012806/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_19.png

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