February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

This is a nice tater tot to leave up here for the start of the February thread.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yay!

[snow_wizard]

Maybe this will be the thread of the ages for the Seattle area!

[HighlandExperience]

Maybe this will be the thread of the ages for the Seattle area!

Let's start this month on the right foot. 12 inches of snow!

[catnip]

Let's start this month on the right foot. 12 inches of snow!

 

 

[FroYoBro]

It is still January. These posts are unacceptable! 

[umadbro]

Whoa, I literally had to look at the calender. Got confused fora second

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z is running!!!!

[Deweydog]

18z is running!!!!

Tomorrow's?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Tomorrow's?

[Bryant]

You posted about a model run from January in a February thread

[Timmy Supercell]

This is a nice tater tot to leave up here for the start of the February thread.

 

gem_asnow_nwus_40.png

 

Doesn't seem like a whole lot over Klamath Basin. But that could change.

[snow_wizard]

I'm not even going to comment on tonight's model runs. I hope they go the other way again.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm not even going to comment on tonight's model runs. I hope they go the other way again.

If anything I feel most sad for you!  The runs were truly a sad outcome tonight. -- oh well... 

[snow_wizard]

If anything I feel most sad for you!  The runs were truly a sad outcome tonight. -- oh well...

The GEM and it's ensemble are good. I'll have some hope if the Euro ensemble is good.

[snow_wizard]

Thankfully the 6z snapped back to a better solution.

[ClarkCountyChill]

A lot of members switched back to the cold camp for the 06z ensembles.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Low of 28 this morning, currently 30 and cloudy.

[bainbridgekid]

12z is a step back.

 

Looks more like the 00z with the low getting hung up more to our NW rather than sweeping East towards us. Keeps the cold further NW as a result.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The GEM and it's ensemble are good. I'll have some hope if the Euro ensemble is good.

Honestly if we lose the EURO then all is lost. Which based on this morning runs looks to be the case.

[bainbridgekid]

Meanwhile, the Canadian is coming in pretty snowy for Friday.

 

I have a very hard time trusting this map though. Looks like quite a bit of 35-37 degree rain after a brief period of light snow that morning most likely.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017020112/gem_asnow_nwus_11.png

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS looks very much like the ugly 00Z GFS.    

 

The 06Z run was an outlier.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Meanwhile, the Canadian is coming in pretty snowy for Friday.

 

I have a very hard time trusting this map though. Looks like quite a bit of 35-37 degree rain after a brief period of light snow that morning most likely.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017020112/gem_asnow_nwus_11.png

 

At this point the Friday overrunning event looks like our best hope, it does not look very good after that. Hopefully the low comes in closer to the coast and gets hung up against the cold airmass longer to extend the event.

[FroYoBro]

There is just a little less excitement in here compared to 24 hours ago. 

[ClarkCountyChill]

There is just a little less excitement in here compared to 24 hours ago. 

 

I was really hoping to see the Puget Sound get nailed.

 

At least we still have all of February.

[HighlandExperience]

I was really hoping to see the Puget Sound get nailed.

 

At least we still have all of February.

Sounds nice, but the window is closing fast now. Sadly this might be our last chance for significant snow.

[stuffradio]

If there's one model to make you feel better, it's always the GEM.

 

[ClarkCountyChill]

Sounds nice, but the window is closing fast now. Sadly this might be our last chance for significant snow.

 

Good point!

[HighlandExperience]

If there's one model to make you feel better, it's always the GEM.

 

gem_asnow_nwus_38_12z.png

Gem always makes us feel good. If I recall correctly the GEM was one of the few models spitting out crazy snowfall for Portland in the last event.

[Deweydog]

Doneslowpe!

[Brennan]

Just a little but of snow at Whistler... 12zgfs shows 160"

[Brennan]

Doneslowpe!

Down-SLOP*

[stuffradio]

Gem always makes us feel good. If I recall correctly the GEM was one of the few models spitting out crazy snowfall for Portland in the last event.

It says I will have 3+ feet of snow in the next 10 days.

[stuffradio]

I don't know if you guys have read this yet, but we have accomplished a 2 month streak of cooler than average temps for the first time since 2012!

 

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/nearly-5-year-streak-broken-seattle-finally-has-back-to-back-chilly-months

[ClarkCountyChill]

Doneslowpe!

 

Might have to downgrade to .0125"

[ShawniganLake]

[HighlandExperience]

[umadbro]

Pdx NWS is stubbornly sticking to its guns.

[Perturbed Member]

Sure would be nice if that NAVGEM solution verified. Keep these southern stream lows further south so it doesn't interfere with the progression of that cold trough.

[FroYoBro]

Pdx NWS is stubbornly sticking to its guns.

Eh. I don't think it is that bad of a call. Unlikely anyone sees 2 inches, but a little bit of snow followed by some freezing rain certainly still looks possible. Might as well warn people.