February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Actually I am not frustrated at all... (not sure if you read my whole post) I am very happy. Just not as epic as some may make it out to be from a real-world view, but the stats sure look good. Although that 12inches looked pretty epic the morning I woke up to it. It was amazing!

It lasted longer than two days also. You exaggerated a bit on that. That having been said this winter far underachieved compared to what could have easily happened. It's really hard to grade this winter because for persistent cold and days with at least some snowfall it has been quite remarkable. I've had snow fall from the sky on about 15 different days. No doubt we are still due for a winter where the Seattle area is the big winner. It probably won't be long before it happens.

 

Very good chance this winter isn't done yet either, which makes it even more amazing. Really interesting season.

[snow_wizard]

Nah, SW WA up to Olympia area has done well, parts of King/Snohomish County have done well. 11.2" at SEA, and they weren't among the places hardest hit with the early Feb snowstorm that dumped 8"+ over much of east Seattle metro.

No doubt Northern Whatcom is the real winner this winter though. I would give them an A-, and that's saying something given the harsh winters they can occasionally have.

[Front Ranger]

No doubt Northern Whatcom is the real winner this winter though. I would give them an A-, and that's saying something given the harsh winters they can occasionally have.

 

Yep, no doubt parts of far northern WA and lower BC have been the biggest winners this winter.

[Jesse]

Lots of city hills did well in Seattle(particularly west), because most of these events were elevation driven and not cold pool/radiationally cooling or even favored by convergence zone. Most of Seattle is just as hilly as the Eastside until you almost get into the exurbs, only reason the eastside does better is because of favorable convergence zone setups. There's a reason why north sound posters are crying wolf.

If you think this winter has been bad, and you are expecting enough global warming to close White Pass and Crystal Mountain over the next few decades, you are in for a lot of disappointment.

[MossMan]

I'm up to around 13" on the winter, the only thing that bums me out a bit is the fact that every single snowfall from December to present has basically melted as soon as the snow stopped falling. Unlike Most areas of Oregon that got blasted with cold air right after their big snow which locked it in for a week...that would have been lovely.

[Trainwreck]

It's funny you bring that up Timmy, around Redmond I hear of snows that happen all year round. According to some old timers it has snowed in every month of the year here, I think they may get snow confused with possibly graupel or hail by chance? All I know is I've lived here for a little over 8 years and have only seen real snow at the latest in early May. Old timers I tell you......

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's funny you bring that up Timmy, around Redmond I hear of snows that happen all year round. According to some old timers it has snowed in every month of the year here, I think they may get snow confused with possibly graupel or hail by chance? All I know is I've lived here for a little over 8 years and have only seen real snow at the latest in early May. Old timers I tell you......

 

I agree. 

[snow maniac]

Only 7 inches total this year, I get shafted by the olympics every time the flow comes out of the north or NW

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Currently sitting at 38F and rainy with the thin remaining layer of snow quickly melting away, about a month ago this likely would have started as snow. I'm up to just over 24" of snow this season, 17" of which fell this month, only 1" of which fell in January. Temperatures have also been solidly below average, YYJ is finishing the month at about 38.4F compared with the seasonal monthly average of 41.1F.

[bainbridgekid]

For those still frustrated by their lack of snow, just a reminder:

 

Chicago has had zero snow on the ground since Christmas. First time since the 1870's they've had a snowless January and February.

[epiceast]

If you think this winter has been bad, and you are expecting enough global warming to close White Pass and Crystal Mountain over the next few decades, you are in for a lot of disappointment.

Jesse,

 

That was posted in the other thread. Don't need to put it in here. And also you can discuss that with me over there, but my point is that Snoqualmie/Stevens will be a lot more resilient to global warming.

 

Finally, they were closed for a winter 2 seasons ago. We can also discuss the semantics of "closed" like we do about everything with Tim here too if you would like.

[umadbro]

I'm at 11" scattered between 5 snow events. 4-5 inches on January 11th

[umadbro]

But about a mile away up the hill into Sherwood was 8" and close to 10 in Tualatin on that january 11th snowstorm.

[HighlandExperience]

For those still frustrated by their lack of snow, just a reminder:

 

Chicago has had zero snow on the ground since Christmas. First time since the 1870's they've had a snowless January and February.

About time.

[umadbro]

For those still frustrated by their lack of snow, just a reminder:

 

Chicago has had zero snow on the ground since Christmas. First time since the 1870's they've had a snowless January and February.

I'm willing to bet the majority of population is more than OK with that.

[Phil]

About time.

Why do you always root against others getting snow?

[HighlandExperience]

[BLI snowman]

Bye winter!!

 

See you next weekend!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Perturbed Member]

GFS continues to show snow Sunday - Monday. Euro ensemble mean for PDX was 2+ inches through that period too and 4+ for HIO.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017030100/156/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

 

I don't buy it for the lowest elevations though. Too much onshore flow. Looks great for places with elevation.

[epiceast]

GFS continues to show snow Sunday - Monday. Euro ensemble mean for PDX was 2+ inches through that period too and 4+ for HIO.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017030100/156/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

 

I don't buy it for the lowest elevations though. Too much onshore flow. Looks great for places with elevation.

March is the only month where onshore flow is not a death sentence for snow. But I don't like the position of 850mb lows it mostly stays off shore or over VI, never really goes to east of the sound to really get the NW flow cranking.

[BLI snowman]

GFS continues to show snow Sunday - Monday. Euro ensemble mean for PDX was 2+ inches through that period too and 4+ for HIO.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017030100/156/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

 

I don't buy it for the lowest elevations though. Too much onshore flow. Looks great for places with elevation.

All about the right precip intensity at the right times in a pattern like that. Looking juicier than the trough last week, at least.

[CTA]

FWIW, the 2/5-2/6 storm at OLM brought .88" of all snow precip. That was a big snowfall for them, and it started much earlier than places further north.

We only got about 4-5" with that. Snowed for several hours but took forever for temp to drop enough for sticking. I'd guesstimate about 10-12" for the entire winter.

[Jesse]

Jesse,

 

That was posted in the other thread. Don't need to put it in here. And also you can discuss that with me over there, but my point is that Snoqualmie/Stevens will be a lot more resilient to global warming.

 

Finally, they were closed for a winter 2 seasons ago. We can also discuss the semantics of "closed" like we do about everything with Tim here too if you would like.

I think you are misunderstanding my point. You seem to be leaning toward a pretty speedy global warming scenario in the PNW. If things play out that way, if this winter doesn't meet your standards you will find few if any that do, going forward.

[epiceast]

I think you are misunderstanding my point. You seem to be leaning toward a pretty speedy global warming scenario in the PNW. If things play out that way, if this winter doesn't meet your standards you will find few if any that do, going forward.

And you didn't understand mine. You're right I'm leaning towards it, but it's not a strong position, I was only assuming that so I could make my strong and primary argument that the Pass ski areas are in much better position against warm winters on 850mb level than west of the crest areas. I'll agree with you that despite the episodic nature of PNW snowfall for about 75% of the times, global warming will not help.  Although it might help here depending on the kind of gradients we get in the cold pool boundaries, if they would affect the storm track & strength positively in the intermountain west.

[Perturbed Member]

All about the right precip intensity at the right times in a pattern like that. Looking juicier than the trough last week, at least.

 

 

Yeah someone will probably score but doesn't seem like a good pattern for stuff that is too widespread. Whoever gets under some sustained moderate-heavy precip and is cool enough I guess.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's nice having the prospect of a coveted weekend snowfall, however temperatures aloft are looking even more marginal than they were last weekend and don't appear to approach snow territory until Monday. Could be a more marginal repeat of what we just had. Doesn't mean some intense convective showers might not popup and give a brief snowcover to smaller areas, but it has a lot more going against it when the 850mbs are above -7C and 925s above -2C.

[snow_wizard]

For those still frustrated by their lack of snow, just a reminder:

 

Chicago has had zero snow on the ground since Christmas. First time since the 1870's they've had a snowless January and February.

Wow!

 

To think that area had their coldest winter since 1893 just a few years back. I think the atmosphere is as insane now as it was in the 1930s. Crazy roller coaster.

[snow_wizard]

I think you are misunderstanding my point. You seem to be leaning toward a pretty speedy global warming scenario in the PNW. If things play out that way, if this winter doesn't meet your standards you will find few if any that do, going forward.

You're forgetting about the solar aspect. I'm betting on 2018-19 to be huge assuming next winter is warm ENSO.

[snow_wizard]

It's nice having the prospect of a coveted weekend snowfall, however temperatures aloft are looking even more marginal than they were last weekend and don't appear to approach snow territory until Monday. Could be a more marginal repeat of what we just had. Doesn't mean some intense convective showers might not popup and give a brief snowcover to smaller areas, but it has a lot more going against it when the 850mbs are above -7C and 925s above -2C.

The WRF is insisting on lowland snow in the 4 to 7 day period.

[snow_wizard]

March is the only month where onshore flow is not a death sentence for snow. But I don't like the position of 850mb lows it mostly stays off shore or over VI, never really goes to east of the sound to really get the NW flow cranking.

My area does very well with cold WSW flow which is depicted on the last few GFS runs.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

My area does very well with cold WSW flow which is depicted on the last few GFS runs.

 

Cold WSW flow seems like a good snow pattern here as well, but so far it's only worked out well when there is a low level northerly flow.

[snow_wizard]

I plugged the SEA and PDX numbers for this winter into my winter ranking system and here are the results. My system uses a combination of...coldest month, 3 month average temp, extreme minimum temp, snowiest month, seasonal snowfall, and greatest 24 hour snowfall. I only do Dec - Feb for temps, but the snowfall includes the entire cold season so we could still add to that part of it.

 

Seattle ended up with 11 points compared to 16 for 2008-09.

 

PDX ended up with 17 points compared to 16 for 2008-09.

 

The combined total of 28 compares to 32 for 2008-09.

 

Portland kicked Seattle's butt this winter, but rest assured there are years Seattle returns the favor.

[snow_wizard]

Cold WSW flow seems like a good snow pattern here as well, but so far it's only worked out well when there is a low level northerly flow.

I've seen snow here a number of times with onshore flow. We can get some cold air damming against the west slopes of the Cascades with situations like what might happen this weekend / early next week. March is the month for snow with onshore flow.

[Front Ranger]

We only got about 4-5" with that. Snowed for several hours but took forever for temp to drop enough for sticking. I'd guesstimate about 10-12" for the entire winter.

Interesting. OLM was 32 for the vast majority of it. I know they tend to do a bit better than Olympia proper.

[Front Ranger]

I plugged the SEA and PDX numbers for this winter into my winter ranking system and here are the results. My system uses a combination of...coldest month, 3 month average temp, extreme minimum temp, snowiest month, seasonal snowfall, and greatest 24 hour snowfall. I only do Dec - Feb for temps, but the snowfall includes the entire cold season so we could still add to that part of it.

 

Seattle ended up with 11 points compared to 16 for 2008-09.

 

PDX ended up with 17 points compared to 16 for 2008-09.

 

The combined total of 28 compares to 32 for 2008-09.

 

Portland kicked Seattle's butt this winter, but rest assured there are years Seattle returns the favor.

Sounds about right.

 

2008-09 was pretty awesome in how even it ended up for pretty much everyone north of Salem.

[CTA]

Interesting. OLM was 32 for the vast majority of it. I know they tend to do a bit better than Olympia proper.

Not sure how accurate that was.  I am same exact elevation (204') and about 2 miles from there.  It was frustrating seeing all that snow melting. 

[Bryant]

12z GFS continues to show potential for next week

[Geos]

February stats here.