February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Eh. I don't think it is that bad of a call. Unlikely anyone sees 2 inches, but a little bit of snow followed by some freezing rain certainly still looks possible. Might as well warn people. 

 

Brofight!

[FroYoBro]

Eh. I don't think it is that bad of a call. Unlikely anyone sees 2 inches, but a little bit of snow followed by some freezing rain certainly still looks possible. Might as well warn people. 

 

Actually, I just saw a sounding from the 12z WRF-GFS and it looks really unimpressive. It pretty much just shows some cold rain. 

[umadbro]

It all looks really unimpressive. Even the band down around Eugene isn't reaching the ground.

[Bryant]

Euro doesn't look to improve. Hard to tell with limited access though

[bainbridgekid]

At least we still have the JMA 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2017020112/jma_T850_us_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2017020112/jma_T850_us_7.png

[bainbridgekid]

Euro doesn't look to improve. Hard to tell with limited access though

Euro's way warmer for Friday too.

[BLI snowman]

Actually, I just saw a sounding from the 12z WRF-GFS and it looks really unimpressive. It pretty much just shows some cold rain. 

 

Yeah, snow to freezing rain would be one thing but at this point nothing is actually supporting snow and any zr accumulations look to be exremely light.

 

A freezing rain advisory for places near the gorge would be the way to go, not a regionwide winter storm watch.

[Timmy]

Yeah, snow to freezing rain would be one thing but at this point nothing is actually supporting snow and any zr accumulations look to be exremely light.

 

A freezing rain advisory for places near the gorge would be the way to go, not a regionwide winter storm watch.

noticed the latest rpm took all westside snow away even in the coast range.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro doesn't look to improve. Hard to tell with limited access though

It's pretty much crap south of the border.  Maybe 2-3" around Bellingham.  Trace to 1" or 2 south of there, but temps are pretty marginal.  It shows close to 10" for Shawnigan Lake Friday and another 8-10" Sunday.  But shifting the track of Sundays storm even 100miles will have huge implications.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well, that de-escalated quickly!

[Deweydog]

City of Portland having a press conference this afternoon to outline how they're going to handle the winter storm. Tune in and save the ones you love!

[Jesse]

Well now what?

[HighlandExperience]

Crap is our default here. It was fun to dream at least.

[jakeinthevalley]

Well now what?

Pitchers and Catchers??

[umadbro]

Pitchers and Catchers??

I'm predicting the mariners to win the division. With this team we have on paper, there is no reason they can't barring any major injuries.

[FroYoBro]

Well now what?

 

We all wait until our inevitable death. 

[jakeinthevalley]

Will NWS PDX drop the WSW?

[Phil]

Well, the wave-2 follow up fails, and the vortex returns. These events are just so unstable and unpredictable sometimes.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

[Phil]

The models will continue to struggle in the medium and long term, going forward. Don't give up on anything yet.

[Jesse]

We all wait until our inevitable death.

Matt?

[Deweydog]

Matt?

You asked...

[Jesse]

You asked...

Pedro?

[Jesse]

PDX up to 40.

 

Looking likely they won't even score a sub-40 high or sub-freezing low with this setup.

[Deweydog]

Pedro?

You needed guidance and you got it. The best days are behind you.

[Jesse]

You needed guidance and you got it. The best days are behind you.

I've lost track of what we are even talking about.

[FroYoBro]

I've lost track of what we are even talking about.

 

You wasted your potential. You could have been great. Sad!

[Jesse]

You wasted your potential. You could have been great. Sad!

I yelled the same thing at the sky today.

[FroYoBro]

I yelled the same thing at the sky today.

 

We had a pretty good run. I am actually looking forward to warm weather this spring. 

[Jesse]

We had a pretty good run. I am actually looking forward to warm weather this spring.

No doubt we did!

 

I want to see the Puget Sound region score before winter is over though.

 

As for spring, I am looking forward to lots of mountain snow and lowland highs in the mid-40s. Frequent cold hail showers.

[Deweydog]

I've lost track of what we are even talking about.

That happens when you lose all hope.

[Jesse]

That happens when you lose all hope.

A January with an average temp in the low-30s is more than I could have ever hoped for!

[luvssnow_spokane]

The models will continue to struggle in the medium and long term, going forward. Don't give up on anything yet.

Too late... 

[Brennan]

Looking at the larger scale upper level pattern... The difference between a foot of snow (yesterday's runs) and hardly anything (today's)... is extremely small. The results for us are worlds different, yet when looking at the entire pattern for North America... this general area is the only area greatly affected. I mean, the pattern STILL predicted is a lot different than the one being shown before things changed drastically for the better a couple of days ago. 

[Bryant]

Looking at the larger scale upper level pattern... The difference between a foot of snow (yesterday's runs) and hardly anything (today's)... is extremely small. The results for us are worlds different, yet when looking at the entire pattern for North America... this general area is the only area greatly affected. I mean, the pattern STILL predicted is a lot different than the one being shown before things changed drastically for the better a couple of days ago.

You're holding on to hope... just let it go and be free.

 

I hope we can scrape up something near the end of the month when tropical forcing returns to the La Ninã regions

[Deweydog]

A January with an average temp in the low-30s is more than I could have ever hoped for!

Well now what?

[Jesse]

Well now what?

A coolish March would be fun.

[MossMan]

Looking at the latest PNA forecast I think after the possible slop/rain on Friday I would say winter is pretty much wrapped up. Such a shame, at least my daughter and I were able to build one snowman back before Christmas. I can never remember a winter where we had SO much potential that just crapped on us Puget Sounders over and over again. Oh well!

[stuffradio]

A coolish March would be fun.

It would be better than cold hailstorms the whole time. That would destroy all my vegetables!

[Jesse]

It would be better than cold hailstorms the whole time. That would destroy all my vegetables!

I'm hoping for the hailstorms too.

[stuffradio]

Looking at the latest PNA forecast I think after the possible slop/rain on Friday I would say winter is pretty much wrapped up. Such a shame, at least my daughter and I were able to build one snowman back before Christmas. I can never remember a winter where we had SO much potential that just crapped on us Puget Sounders over and over again. Oh well!

The latest GFS and 00z ECMWF shows the PNA staying negative until the 9th or 10th.