Tom Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 I'm sure there are many on here who are ready for Spring to arrive. How soon will we see our first 60's, 70's and spring time thunderstorms??? Will we see an El Nino forming this Summer??? I started a separate thread for that possibility and it is certainly on the table as more modeling is picking up on it. Trends in the models are that we will see an early Spring as we flip the calendar into meteorological Spring. Let's Discuss... Here is the latest CFSv2 run for March... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017020118/cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_1.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017020118/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_us_1.png Latest CanSIPS run... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017020100/cansips_T2ma_us_2.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017020100/cansips_apcpna_month_us_2.png The JAMSTEC model is also showing a very warm Spring... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2017.1jan2017.gif Seems a bit to dry in the central CONUS... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.MAM2017.1jan2017.gif There has been some talk of growing concerns of a possible drought this summer in the heartland. The missouri valley has been very dry and if this region expands heading into the Spring, might not be a good growing season for parts of the Midwest/Plains. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/current/current_usdm.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Crossing into severe drought territory here for sure. If there's one thing the La Niña type weather delivered it was this. If we can get the QBO to cycle this time around the way it's supposed to, good chance at a warmer than avg spring fading into a cooler than average summer with more precip in places that need it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 8, 2017 Report Share Posted February 8, 2017 Crossing into severe drought territory here for sure. If there's one thing the La Niña type weather delivered it was this. If we can get the QBO to cycle this time around the way it's supposed to, good chance at a warmer than avg spring fading into a cooler than average summer with more precip in places that need it. That'd be good for sure. While I'd be fine with the early warmth of 2012, I cringe at the thought of your conditions projecting northeast into MI like what I experienced in '88. Neither of those were fun, but '88 was longer and more consistently hot (days of 90+ for up here) than five yrs ago. 2012 was about a month shorter and started to break-down by July. In August things were already back to green and moist. I'd say '88 was 2.5 mos vs '12 at 1.5 mos in duration. I hate drought tbh - worst climo by far! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 JAMSTEC on board with a warm/wet Spring... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2017.1feb2017.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.MAM2017.1feb2017.gif Summer...looks hot and mainly dry http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2017.1feb2017.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2017.1feb2017.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 NASA also seems very warm this Spring/Summer...following the theme of the overall LRC pattern with a cold west and warm east... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png As an El Nino develops this summer, may things be changing later in the Summer??? Wetter??? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season4.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 Weren't there some models showing snow into May? I know probably not realistic (even though it happened a few years ago), and I don't want that to happen. The idea being that it was supposed to be colder longer this winter and spring. I'm guessing that's all out the window now it looks like 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 Weren't there some models showing snow into May? I know probably not realistic (even though it happened a few years ago), and I don't want that to happen. The idea being that it was supposed to be colder longer this winter and spring. I'm guessing that's all out the window now it looks likeI believe that was the Brazilian. It still does show it from time to time on single runs. You never know. There may be a rogue Spring storm late March into April out in the Plains where they typically form. Once we get into the middle part of Spring I think a lot of us will torch. Once we get past mid March, Spring will have sprung...the CPC SST analog forecast says a colder Spring but I'm not buying that now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 By mid March, I am so ready for Spring. No snow is wanted by that point of time and I am sure a lot of posters feel that way as well. We had all of January and February to have fun tracking big winterstorms in the Winter, not now, when Spring arrives. Also, so many negative factors are combined when having a snowstorm in the Springtime, such as high sun angle, longer days, snow not lasting otg as long as it would in the Winter and etc and etc. Tbh, I am surprised that I am sitting on 34.1" thus far this winter season because the way this winter has been trailing along, I should have been somewhere between 10-15". Idk, maybe, early much will produce the "Big One", who knows. One thing is for sure, it has been one heck of a mild winter. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 By mid March, I am so ready for Spring. No snow is wanted by that point of time and I am sure a lot of posters feel that way as well. We had all of January and February to have fun tracking big winterstorms in the Winter, not now, when Spring arrives. Also, so many negative factors are combined when having a snowstorm in the Springtime, such as high sun angle, longer days, snow not lasting otg as long as it would in the Winter and etc and etc. Tbh, I am surprised that I am sitting on 34.1" thus far this winter season because the way this winter has been trailing along, I should have been somewhere between 10-15". Idk, maybe, early much will produce the "Big One", who knows. One thing is for sure, it has been one heck of a mild winter.Sun angle over played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 CPC's Feb Spring Outlook... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t01.2c.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p01.2c.gif Summer.... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t04.2c.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p04.2c.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 JMA monthlies for the Spring months are below... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 Sun angle over played. Maybe at your arctic latitude it is, lol. He's in SEMI and trust me, sun here may not stop snow from falling and accumulating, but it'll kill what's OTG in a NY minute! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 JMA monthlies for the Spring months are below... Nice Tom. March chilly, then game on for April & May. Can't wait 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 As we count down the last days of met Winter, Spring is around the corner. It may be a bit delayed during the first couple weeks of March but I imagine it will come on strong 2nd half of March. Later this week, I will post more forecasts from the Canadian and CPC issues their forecast around the 6th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 We didn't have a winter this year. Not a single snowstorm. Not 1 storm with more than 3 inches in my area. Season total is probably around 12 inches. That has to be top 10 least snow. It's been a complete nightmare. Spring can't get here soon enough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 27, 2017 Report Share Posted February 27, 2017 Maybe we could do a photo contest this year for severe weather? It'll act as an incentive to keep this board active, and not insanely boring like it is around that time normally. Severe thunderstorms themselves are definitely some of the most interesting things to watch, and I think it'd be cool to have a contest on who can snag the best one this year. Just a suggestion! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 27, 2017 Report Share Posted February 27, 2017 Watch our severe season the bed too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2017 The CanSIPS 3-month avg for the Spring and Summer... Spring... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017030100/cansips_T2maMean_month_us_1.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017030100/cansips_apcpna_multimonth_us_1.pngSummer... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017030100/cansips_T2maMean_month_us_4.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017030100/cansips_apcpna_multimonth_us_4.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 1, 2017 Report Share Posted March 1, 2017 Well it looks like I'm in for a nice summer. Hopefully that translates into a good winter. Three bad ones in a row, I don't know if I can take that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2017 CPC's updated SST CA Forecasts for the Spring months... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201702/cat2m_anom.0.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201702/caprec_anom.0.gif Summer Months... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201702/cat2m_anom.3.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201702/caprec_anom.3.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2017 NASA's updated March run suggests a warm Spring and cooler summer in the heartland...it's interesting that the CFSv2 is also suggest a wetter/cooler central CONUS. April/May/June... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png June/July/August... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 Noticing a similar theme with a pool of cool air being forecast for the Spring months. This actually fits how the LRC pattern developed back in Oct/Nov. Several climate models are showing colder air for the northern tier/Rockies/PAC NW. I'm not sure how much cooler it will be for the central Plains, but if the pattern turns wet it could actually end up right. Spring... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2017.1mar2017.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.MAM2017.1mar2017.gif Summer... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2017.1mar2017.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2017.1mar2017.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 Hoping for a dry, warm Spring and a hot, dry Summer. Although, a few rumbles of severe weather would be nice. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 JMA Seasonal suggesting a warm second half of Spring into June over much of our sub-forum... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 17, 2017 Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 JMA Seasonal suggesting a warm second half of Spring into June over much of our sub-forum... :) Where do I sign? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 :) Where do I sign?CPC in agreement... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 21, 2017 Report Share Posted March 21, 2017 You all can keep the heat up there this summer. I'm not interested. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 21, 2017 Report Share Posted March 21, 2017 You all can keep the heat up there this summer. I'm not interested. My sis was in the Army stationed at Fort Sill in Lawton summer of 1980 (hottest on record?) and her image of OK is pretty ugly because of that! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 22, 2017 Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 My sis was in the Army stationed at Fort Sill in Lawton summer of 1980 (hottest on record?) and her image of OK is pretty ugly because of that!The only thing I ever liked about Western OK or SW OK is the quartz and red granite mountains out there. The rest is ugly, hot, dry and windy. Eastern Oklahoma is the place for me. Hills and trees. Can't live without topography. It's cooler but more humid over here though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 22, 2017 Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 1934 and 1980 were tied for hottest ever until 2011 beat them both by 2 degrees. 2011 sucked. There's just no other way of putting it. It was literally oppressive to do anything that year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 22, 2017 Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 1934 and 1980 were tied for hottest ever until 2011 beat them both by 2 degrees. 2011 sucked. There's just no other way of putting it. It was literally oppressive to do anything that year. So I heard. As hot as 2010 was for the DFW region, the next year was worse and so dry all the reservoirs where I was living dried up terribly. That would've been a doubly miserable summer for a Michigander like myself who's accustomed to plenty of lush green and deep blues of the GL's state in the warm season. Really glad I missed that. It does seem it was the precursor to our own heatwave/drought of 2012 which for this region was the worst since the biggie of '88. Drought seems to be an unfortunate reality of our wx cycles in nature but I can't think of one good thing related to that wx phenomena tbh. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 24, 2017 ECMWF ensemble outlook for April...this looks nice... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2017 The latest CanSIPS run for Summer... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017040100/cansips_T2maMean_month_us_3.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017040100/cansips_apcpna_multimonth_us_3.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 2, 2017 Report Share Posted April 2, 2017 1934 and 1980 were tied for hottest ever until 2011 beat them both by 2 degrees. 2011 sucked. There's just no other way of putting it. It was literally oppressive to do anything that year.Tell me about it. I lived in Houston in 2011 and I was in marching band. One practice, the actual temp was 108°. We practiced on an asphalt field. One person brought out a thermometer. We were basically practicing in a humid 135°. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 3, 2017 The latest CFSv2 trends for May... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201705.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201705.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 CPC's latest run of the SST analog package suggesting troughiness in the central CONUS through June...where the wet pattern continues... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201703/cahgt_anom.0.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201703/caprec_anom.0.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201703/cat2m_anom.0.gif Summer...it continues... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201703/cahgt_anom.2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201703/caprec_anom.2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201703/cat2m_anom.2.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 NASA's recent run still showing a cooler than normal pattern for the central CONUS through Spring/Summer...likely a wet pattern. I really wonder if the LRC's ridge will fight back in the heart of Summer. It may be pushed farther south and/or east which which would allow the Plains to escape the worst of the heat this summer. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 The latest run on the NMME suite is suggesting a much warmer look and drier...not buying it... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2017040800/nmme_T2maMean_month_us_2.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2017040800/nmme_apcpna_multimonth_us_2.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted April 9, 2017 Report Share Posted April 9, 2017 Maybe we could do a photo contest this year for severe weather? It'll act as an incentive to keep this board active, and not insanely boring like it is around that time normally. Severe thunderstorms themselves are definitely some of the most interesting things to watch, and I think it'd be cool to have a contest on who can snag the best one this year. Just a suggestion!I like this idea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2017 The latest JAMSTEC is running hot and wet for the majority of our sub forum. If its going to be wet, I doubt we have extended heat waves. I'm sure there will be some periods of hot/muggy weather but I'm not buying into any extended heat waves just yet. Maybe down to the southeastern part of the U.S. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2017.1apr2017.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2017.1apr2017.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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