February 7th/8th Possible Major Winter Storm???

[Tom]

Folks, will there be a major winter storm or not???  That is the question...today's 12z suite of runs are now back to advertising what may be one of the bigger snow systems to hit some of our members.  

 

Lets discuss...

 

 

 

 

[Tony]

Going to take a wild guess here: anyone north of a Chicago line will be the winners with regards to snow. South of us could see a nasty setup for severe weather. In between will be a cold rain.

[Tom]

Going to take a wild guess here: anyone north of a Chicago line will be the winners with regards to snow. South of us could see a nasty setup for severe weather. In between will be a cold rain.

Yup, I could see that happening. Or maybe a rain to snow transition for us on the back end.

[Tom]

If the HP along the Canadian border could slide east a little slower than currently prog it would benefit a lot more members.

[Tom]

12z NAVY model with a GL bomb...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017020212/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_24.png

[james1976]

Lot of models showing a bomb. Gonna be a lot of wind.

[St Paul Storm]

That's one hell of a precip shield on the navy. Looks like a shipwrecker.

[jaster220]

Folks, will there be a major winter storm or not???  That is the question...today's 12z suite of runs are now back to advertising what may be one of the bigger snow systems to hit some of our members.  

 

Lets discuss...

 

So professional, such the diplomatic flare you exude Tom  

 

Here's the AmWx thread lead-in: "There will be some sort of interesting weather during this period at least."

 

SLIGHT contrast in flavor here vs. there   

[jaster220]

Lot of models showing a bomb. Gonna be a lot of wind.

 

If I can't get SN, then gimme wind as a consolation

[jaster220]

That's one hell of a precip shield on the navy. Looks like a shipwrecker.

 

Can't remember seeing the Navgem that amped for anything. Too bad it's so north, supposed to have a SE bias. Oh well..

[Tony]

Can't remember seeing the Navgem that amped for anything. Too bad it's so north, supposed to have a SE bias. Oh well..

Give it another model run and you will have your SE bias.

[Tom]

Surprised how far north the 12z EPS went today...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017020212/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017020212/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_7.png

[Tom]

18z GFS went north...

[Tom]

Holy wind!  Widespread 40-60mph wind gusts...

[Tony]

Slower...stronger...farther north.

[gosaints]

Holy wind! Widespread 40-60mph wind gusts...

Really nice wind ingredients no matter the track. I like the chances of a bit of a bowling ball just need it to dig more

[gosaints]

Thats a weenie storm.

[Tom]

We finally seem to be getting our first bowler of the season but its trending the wrong way!

[Money]

Low tracks right over head pretty much

 

Shows some decent wrap around snows with 40 mph gusts

[Tony]

You would think the H pressure would kick it farther south.

[Tony]

Seconday starting to take shape but that one will probably end up south of us.

[Tom]

You would think the H pressure would kick it farther south.

It's not really that strong of a HP.  Need it to be in the mid/upper 1030's+ to shift such a large storm...

 

Plus, it's to far east when the storm wraps up...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020218/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_19.png

[gosaints]

It's not really that strong of a HP. Need it to be in the mid/upper 1030's+ to shift such a large storm...

 

Plus, it's to far east when the storm wraps up...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020218/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_19.png

Ya a storm that size can do funny things in regards to traveling into high pressures

[Tom]

18z GFS...

[Niko]

From NOAA:

 

The plains to Great Lakes system will swing an associated cold
front through the region Sunday, bringing in chances for light
snow across the area. A brief break in systems is still currently
timed for Monday. Meanwhile, a complex and more intense area of
low pressure is expected to develop over the north Pacific and
central Plains Monday. This system continues to bear watching, as
it could generate a significant mix of winter weather conditions
for all of SE Michigan, likely beginning Tuesday morning and
continuing into Thursday. 

[Tom]

18z GEFS didn't budge much and have way more 970's...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020218/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020218/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_22.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020218/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_23.png

[jaster220]

It's not really that strong of a HP.  Need it to be in the mid/upper 1030's+ to shift such a large storm...

 

Plus, it's to far east when the storm wraps up...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020218/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_19.png

 

Fujiwara?

[jaster220]

GEFS seem awfully strong for an ensemble. You sure that's not a mis-labeled Operational run???

 

Fwiw, CPC's release today re-oriented the snow shield allowing part of SEMI to join the party. Niko..I see you

 

 

[Snoorani]

Is there any chance this can go further south so we all can have a good snowstorm?

[jaster220]

GRR afd is the most interesting read I can remember..Answers my question as why this is modeled so strong without any classic phase job between tht streams. This may be historic for the lucky peeps who get it.

 

 

 

LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Issued at 323 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017

 

It is looking more and more likely that there will be a storm in the

Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. Locally, we anticipate

significant impacts in the Tuesday into Wednesday (maybe Thursday)

time frame. We currently are concerned about significant impacts

from strong winds with lake effect snow and temperatures falling

into the teens by Wednesday afternoon. Significant ice accumulations

will also be possible in some areas.

 

The GFS and ensemble means of the GEFS and 00z ECMWF (ECE) all show

the track of the surface low through central to southern Lower

Michigan. Since 01/12Z, the deterministic ECMWF has kept the track

of the storm south of I-96. Also since 01/12Z, GFS operational runs

have been tracking the storm successively farther south while

remaining farther north than most of the recent ECWMF runs. The

Canadian model has been all over the place with the track of this

system so I am not buying that 12z run of the GEMS for the storm

track. It should also be noted that the GFS parallel run is

significantly farther south than the GFS operational runs.

 

This storm is associated with the storm I have been writing about

over the past few days - i.e., the one that came out of China,

crosses Japan, and then moves north from the western Pacific towards

Kamchatka. The storms builds that huge blocking upper level high

over the Bering Sea this coming weekend. Some of that storm`s energy

goes under the blocking high and merges with a storm digging south

off the Coast of British Columbia. The storm from British Columbia

by itself merges with a closed upper low off the coast of California

prior to the western Pacific system reaching that area. This

suggests this storm may have the merged energy of at least 3 systems

when it crosses the Rocky Mountains early next week. What seems to

be modulating the track of this storm is just how much digging there

is on the down stream side of the blocking high. Another aspect to

this is there is still the northern stream system (polar vortex???)

which is being driven south from the northern arctic. It does not

seem to me the southern stream storm really merges with that

northern stream, even as it tracks up the east coast of Canada late

next week.

 

The harder part to forecast is what happens Tuesday as the main

system comes out into the Great Lakes. The operational ECMWF does

not seem to bring the surface temperature above freezing along I-96

and north (GRR east) Tuesday. This could mean a significant icing

event. Even if we do go to rain in GRR, areas north and east of here

could see over a 1/4 inch of ice from this storm. Heavy snowfall is

possible Tuesday north of the freezing rain area. So, bottom line,

we still do not know the track of this storm yet but it seems clear

there will be a storm in the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. The

lake effect will likely continue into Thursday.

 

We will continue to monitor this storm over the next few days to

better ascertain possible impacts to our area.

[jaster220]

Is there any chance this can go further south so we all can have a good snowstorm?

Read that afd. With so many moving parts to this scenario, I would say this is no where near settled. Chicago still in the chase, at least for nice impacts if not feet of SN.

[Niko]

GEFS seem awfully strong for an ensemble. You sure that's not a mis-labeled Operational run???

 

Fwiw, CPC's release today re-oriented the snow shield allowing part of SEMI to join the party. Niko..I see you

 

hazards_d3_7_contours.png

[gosaints]

Thats a nice windmaker if nothing else once again

[Money]

Still showing nice back end snow

[gosaints]

Still showing nice back end snow

You do well.

[bud2380]

I'm rooting for 60 degrees by my birthday. Feb 23rd. Get this winter over with

[Madtown]

Madison rain?

[Money]

Ukie and GGEM much farther south

[bud2380]

Ggem surface low runs through Iowa then into eastern Wisconsin. Track looks pretty locked in. Iowa has been the low pressure magnet this year. Just about every decent storm this year has had the surface low track right through the state.

[Money]

GEFS:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020300/gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_20.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020300/gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_21.png