February 7th/8th Possible Major Winter Storm???

[Tom]

Warm tongue shooting temps near 60F here on Tuesday....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020318/gfs_T2m_ncus_17.png

[gosaints]

Warm tongue shooting temps near 60F here on Tuesday....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020318/gfs_T2m_ncus_17.png

If the.weenie gfs runs play out the severe will be interesting

[Tom]

Down into the teens the next day...ouch, that's not gonna feel good after a "mini" torch...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020318/gfs_T2m_ncus_22.png

[Tony]

The GFS can have the "pitty backend snow" and send it somewhere else. It's all or none for me at this point of the winter.

[jaster220]

Spring-like extremes sheesh! Would perfectly portray the season in mby actually. Torch>>>>LES. How it kicked-off in Nov and looks to continue the theme. Considering a short work day Wed to chase farther north. Wanna see legit bliz conditions if any way possible. Once in 30 yrs on the table with this...By the time it comes back around I won't be chasing anything but my mis-placed dentures

[jaster220]

Down into the teens the next day...ouch, that's not gonna feel good after a "mini" torch...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020318/gfs_T2m_ncus_22.png

Cruelist of fates for those who see nada - uggh!!

[jaster220]

18z GFS bombs out from a 996mb storm in the Plains down to a 972 mb beast just north of DTX...

Op's catching up with ens's. Wowza! @ the potential dynamics with this!

[St Paul Storm]

MPX says 'meh' for the Twin Cities. They throw out a very very early 2-4" type snow for the metro, but they'll start really guessing tomorrow. Shouldn't take long to burn off when the torch arrives later next week.

[jaster220]

MPX says 'meh' for the Twin Cities. They throw out a very very early 2-4" type snow for the metro, but they'll start really guessing tomorrow. Shouldn't take long to burn off when the torch arrives later next week.

So much mimicks last winter's big storm..Too warm and too late phasing thus delivering it's best to Ontario well north of the populated regions.

[jaster220]

18z GFS bombs out from a 996mb storm in the Plains down to a 972 mb beast just north of DTX...

At least gives N IN something plastered to vertical surfaces no doubt.

[Niko]

Looking forward towards those winds howling. I am expecting gusts to 40 and 50 mph.

[Niko]

@ Jaster, you should do well with LES behind the system on Wednesday. Wouldn't be surprise if ya get a couple of inches along with blowing and drifting snow.

[jaster220]

GFS the past 2 winter's has repeatedly flashed the elusive bombed storm over Lk Huron..Blind squirrel time??

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

GFS the past 2 winter's has repeatedly flashed the elusive bombed storm over Lk Huron..Blind squirrel time??

 

post-16-1486138391_thumb.png

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

[St Paul Storm]

Interesting path of the low on the 0z GFS. From S/C MN to SW MI to Green Bay. Either way, the heavy snow is quite a bit farther north than one would normally expect relative to the low. Northwoods Special.

[Hoosier]

Interesting path of the low on the 0z GFS. From S/C MN to SW MI to Green Bay. Either way, the heavy snow is quite a bit farther north than one would normally expect relative to the low. Northwoods Special.

Whenever there's a "bouncy" low solution, I take it as a sign that the model is having issues resolving the energy/phasing.

[jaster220]

Whenever there's a "bouncy" low solution, I take it as a sign that the model is having issues resolving the energy/phasing.

Long ways from sampled, correct?

[jaster220]

973mb with winds ripping across S Lk Mich. Should be interesting at the work place Wed am.

 

 

[Niko]

973mb with winds ripping across S Lk Mich. Should be interesting at the work place Wed am.

 

gfs_T850_us_20.png

Brrrr. Arctic Express in the works.

[jaster220]

From APX

 

 

Another round of snow arrives tonight with some lake effect continuing into Sunday. While many details are still fuzzy, confidence is increasing in a potentially significant winter storm for Tuesday into Wednesday. We’ll continue to monitor and provide updates as necessary on this system.

 

 

 

Looking more likely I'd have to go all the way to the "tip-o-the-mitt" region if I want to see the real deal. That may not be an option. March 5th, 2012 conveniently fell on a Friday night which made a trip to the Northland a perfect option.   I remember my wife was a bit nervous that we couldn't see the highway due to the massive flakes and tween towns up north there's nothing but dark forest. It was highway M72 which was my old work commute and I re-assured her that I knew every curve and slope blind-folded so not to worry. Had to have been 8+ inches on the state hgwy but we made it. Only storm I've ever experienced where all the motels filled up due to travelers having to "hunker down". Some areas on the west side of TC had 24" by noon the following day. LOL, 12 days later downstate in GR, it hit 87º

 

This season has a bunch of similarities to that one if you ask me.

[Niko]

Near 50F during this storm on Tuesday and heavy rain along with wind. Some real strong southerly winds will be kicking in. Its going to feel like real Springlike conditions out there.

[St Paul Storm]

Really a non-event for the majority of the sub, unless you like wind.

[gosaints]

Really a non-event for the majority of the sub, unless you like wind.

Zzzzzz

[St Paul Storm]

Euro maybe a tick south on the 12z. 0°C line at 850 south of the cities now on Tuesday. Euro is a few ticks stronger this run and the stronger than GFS and GEM. Grasping for anything at this point.....

[Money]

Euro maybe a tick south on the 12z. 0°C line at 850 south of the cities now on Tuesday. Euro is a few ticks stronger this run and the stronger than GFS and GEM. Grasping for anything at this point.....

 

No precip with it though. All though it has some backside snow for WI/E. MN with 2-4 inches of snow or so 

[St Paul Storm]

No precip with it though. All though it has some backside snow for WI/E. MN with 2-4 inches of snow or so

 

Ah, thanks. Figures there's no precip with it.

[jaster220]

Near 50F during this storm on Tuesday and heavy rain along with wind. Some real strong southerly winds will be kicking in. Its going to feel like real Springlike conditions out there.

Yeah, the temps are like a November storm. Really, most of this winter has been like that!

[GDR]

Is anyone still going to get crushed?

[Snoorani]

Does anyone has the euro snow map? thanks

[St Paul Storm]

Is anyone still going to get crushed?

Nope. This potential phaser has turned into a complete whiff.

[jaster220]

Is anyone still going to get crushed?

da Canucks, eh?

 

Seriously, this is going in the crapper fast..(0z GFS)

[Snowshoe]

If you would have included "Nebraska middle finger" in the title we'd still have a storm to discuss.

[jaster220]

If you would have included "Nebraska middle finger" in the title we'd still have a storm to discuss.

 

LOL..

 

Oh, there's a "storm" all right. Even has a decent track over here. But look at the November outcome in the dead of winter! Beyond laughable how the synoptic snow DZ just can't be shaken this season for Chicago. 

 

 

[jaster220]

 

 

"Oh, there's a "storm" all right. Even has a decent track over here. But look at the November outcome in the dead of winter! Beyond laughable how the synoptic snow DZ just can't be shaken this season for Chicago."

 

Of course, Chicago did finally get a decent storm. More than half my snow came before Christmas! Aside from those two weeks in December, it was an extended with brief interludes of winter.