March 2014 Observations & Discussion

[clintbeed1993]

How will the cruddy winter of 2013/2014 end?  Will the plains finally see that monster snowstorm we have been waiting for?  How will spring start?  March could be a very interesting month!

 

GFS is showing a snow event during the first week of March.  Wouldn't surprise me to see a large trough come out of the 4 corners and produce a storm during that time.  LRC would indicate around March 4th for that.  We should probably be hoping for a Colorado Low in Nebraska/Iowa.  The current models are wanting to show yet another Panhandle Hook storm, which of course misses us to the East.  We really need a nice bowling bowl Colorado Low to give us that monster snowstorm we have all been waiting for.

 

I know I'm not alone in saying this:  If we don't get a monster snowstorm it might as well just warm up and be spring.  I am tired of these 1-3 inch snows.  I say go big or go home winter!  I am just as ready for severe weather season and tornado chasing.  Let's see what March of 2014 has in store!  Thoughts??

[Sludge]

I am done  lol  lets move on to spring

[clintbeed1993]

I am done  lol  lets move on to spring

 

 

I'm giving this winter one more chance to "put out".  If the storm next weekend doesn't pan out, let's put a giant fork in this God awful winter.

[Jaycee]

I would prefer an early start to severe wx season. Storms are way more fun to track IMO. I think we get it good this year, as this year resembles the 2007-2008 winter, we all know what happened during the severe wx season of 2008. By far the most storms I've ever witnessed aside from Chicago in 2004 which came close. I think we get whalloped with storms, so bring it on.

[WeatherFanOMA]

I would love to see at least one decent storm to come through, but don't think it will happen.  If trends hold true the system will shift north or south in the coming days.  I'm ready for Spring.

[LincWeath]

I haven't been able to keep tabs on the storm for next weekend. Is it already making minor shifts? If so it wouldn't suprise me, just enough shifts to put it in Kansas before Sat night and Sunday. No suprises

[clintbeed1993]

I haven't been able to keep tabs on the storm for next weekend. Is it already making minor shifts? If so it wouldn't suprise me, just enough shifts to put it in Kansas before Sat night and Sunday. No suprises

 

 

I don't believe it is shifting on the models.  GFS has been consistent showing a big snow for the entire state.  Not sure what the other guy is seeing.  He may just be talking about how storms have gone this season.

[LincWeath]

Ya I hear ya. I was thinking the same thing. I hope we can get something out of this one. Either way I'm ready for spring after next weekend, beginning of March and I'm usually ready for spring. Especially after the nice weather last week.

[gabel23]

The one shift that is starting to show up for next weekend's storm is a cutter vs. a colorado low. That is what I'm starting to see in each model run for the past couple of days. Hope I'm wrong; I would like to see one last storm before winter is done! Long ways to go with each model run but how many times have we said that this winter?!?!

[clintbeed1993]

The one shift that is starting to show up for next weekend's storm is a cutter vs. a colorado low. That is what I'm starting to see in each model run for the past couple of days. Hope I'm wrong; I would like to see one last storm before winter is done! Long ways to go with each model run but how many times have we said that this winter?!?!

 

 

We definitely need a Colorado Low.  I just don't think our big snow will come from a cutter.  They always seem to miss us to the east.  That is one of the reasons our winter has been so dry.  Too many cutters/clippers/panhandle hookers.  Not 1 Colorado Low, which is really our best shot.

[gabel23]

We definitely need a Colorado Low.  I just don't think our big snow will come from a cutter.  They always seem to miss us to the east.  That is one of the reasons our winter has been so dry.  Too many cutters/clippers/panhandle hookers.  Not 1 Colorado Low, which is really our best shot.

I meant to say that is bad news; but yeah two reason's this winter has sucked. 1. A northwest flow, more snow for Iowa and areas to our east which has proven true. 2. More cutters vs. no Colorado lows=9.5" of snow for me which means I'm ready for spring! 

[clintbeed1993]

I meant to say that is bad news; but yeah two reason's this winter has sucked. 1. A northwest flow, more snow for Iowa and areas to our east which has proven true. 2. More cutters vs. no Colorado lows=9.5" of snow for me which means I'm ready for spring! 

 

 

Yep, I mentioned the Northwest Flow as a possible problem for our snowfall total during my winter outlook.  October had a lot of Northwest Flow, so I had a feeling that weather pattern might set up during the brunt of winter.  Just can't get any moisture this far west during Northwest Flow.

[clintbeed1993]

GFS still looking beautiful for the snow events this weekend.  Maybe we will get a surprise and finally get dumped on.

[DominicR]

This one looking great for everyone. Lot's of pacific moisture and cold air dome over the area gonna spark off some long duration WAA event.

[NEJeremy]

OAX AFD from last night:

PATTERN TURNS COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND/MONDAY...WITH MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING.

 

I guess we're going to be light snowed to death over the weekend. C'mon I wanna see a biggie!!
 

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings and Goodland sure don't think there are any large storms coming to Nebraska.  They mention cold and small precipitation chances over the weekend, but nothing like is showing up on the GFS or Euro.  Hastings tends to be very conservative, IMO, so things might change this weekend.  Really hoping for a large early March snowstorm but right now I am not holding out alot of hope.

[WeatherFanOMA]

I think the model are just teasing us now.  This is  set up for a HUGE let down this weekend.  I hope i'm wrong, but it seems like no one is buying into these models.

[WeatherFanOMA]

Omaha at least starting to talk about it:

 

ACCUMULATING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A LITTLE WIND THAT COULD WORSEN TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK SUNDAY...WITH SNOW
RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

[clintbeed1993]

Latest GFS.  I really don't know how to feel about this.  The GFS is the most robust for this system, and even it is shifting the heaviest into Iowa and Illinois.  Story of the winter.  I really hope we get a nice surprise from these events, but I'm not counting on it.

[Jaycee]

Latest GFS.  I really don't know how to feel about this.  The GFS is the most robust for this system, and even it is shifting the heaviest into Iowa and Illinois.  Story of the winter.  I really hope we get a nice surprise from these events, but I'm not counting on it.

Clint, is it time for this yet?? Lol, @ :56. Nebraska in a nutshell!

 

[clintbeed1993]

Clint, is it time for this yet?? Lol, @ :56. Nebraska in a nutshell!

 

 

I love posting this every winter when we get butt raped by the dry slots. Haha

 

You know it's almost funny at this point.  Every time a new system shows up on models you think, maybe this will be the one for me.  You think "they can't all miss us right?"  Then reality hits once again when Chicago gets 12" on top of the 65" they already have..lol  Just pathetic.

 

Hopefully we will be pleasantly surprised, but I'm certainly not getting excited until it starts snowing.

[clintbeed1993]

I can only dream of living through a winter like the one in my profile picture.

[Jaycee]

Lol I know man. It's crazy, it seems like every storm does the EXACT same thing this year. Barely includes Eastern Nebraska on the heavy totals, then continuously shifts further and further east and boom, Chicago blizzard with a WWA for us that was issued for 3-5" that ended up being overdone. I have a bad feeling about the EURO, hopefully I'm wrong and things are changing. Then again, being in the bullseye this far out, is NOT a good thing. If this thing wobbles west, we're both crushed. Cross your fingers hombre.

[clintbeed1993]

Lol I know man. It's crazy, it seems like every storm does the EXACT same thing this year. Barely includes Eastern Nebraska on the heavy totals, then continuously shifts further and further east and boom, Chicago blizzard with a WWA for us that was issued for 3-5" that ended up being overdone. I have a bad feeling about the EURO, hopefully I'm wrong and things are changing. Then again, being in the bullseye this far out, is NOT a good thing. If this thing wobbles west, we're both crushed. Cross your fingers hombre.

 

I hear ya brother.  Maybe we should just lay off the models and relax.  I always get so worked up only to get let down in the end.  I think we should take the models with a grain of salt and see how it looks once the system arrives.  We definitely deserve to get hammered, but unfortunately Mother Nature is a stubborn ** who doesn't even put out on prom night..lol

[clintbeed1993]

I hear ya brother.  Maybe we should just lay off the models and relax.  I always get so worked up only to get let down in the end.  I think we should take the models with a grain of salt and see how it looks once the system arrives.  We definitely deserve to get hammered, but unfortunately Mother Nature is a stubborn ** who doesn't even put out on prom night..lol

 

Unless of course you're in Chicago, in that case she is always "open for business"

[WeatherFanOMA]

And the disappointment begins...

 

From Mr. Flowers

UPDATE 6AM Wednesday: Overnight model cycles continue the downward trend. GFS model has .33 total precip and euro has .18". GFS now has temps at 10k ft right at 0deg C which would bring ice pellets into the picture. Snow ratio was up to 12:1, not sure why with temps still warming aloft.

[gabel23]

WOW!!!!!!! My forecast grid is calling for a high of 7 on Saturday, low of -8 that night. Get this, a high of -1 for sunday?!?!?! Low of -14 Monday morning, if this verifies it will be historic for this area! Hoping I have 4-6" of snow that OAX is forecasting for our area on the ground! 

[clintbeed1993]

WOW!!!!!!! My forecast grid is calling for a high of 7 on Saturday, low of -8 that night. Get this, a high of -1 for sunday?!?!?! Low of -14 Monday morning, if this verifies it will be historic for this area! Hoping I have 4-6" of snow that OAX is forecasting for our area on the ground! 

 

 

How did that 4-6 go for ya?  What a freaking bust.  Very fitting for this God awful winter.  I am sooo ready for spring.  I even started a new thread for it on here! lol

[gabel23]

How did that 4-6 go for ya?  What a freaking bust.  Very fitting for this God awful winter.  I am sooo ready for spring.  I even started a new thread for it on here! lol

Ended up with an inch!! What a big time bust, I'm going to go this whole winter without a winter storm warning. I'm ready for this winter to be over big time.

[winterfreak]

One degree and heavy snow currently.

[Andie]

We're at 19* wind chill at 3. Winds at 15 and gusts to 32.

Ice pellets and sleet showers. More out west. Dropping to 12 tonight near 0* wind chill tonight.

36* tomorrow and low of 23.

[NEJeremy]

GFS has been consistent for the last several runs in showing a big storm around the 20th. I know it's in fantasy land, but it's been on every run the last couple of days. Tonight's 0Z run showed a wonderful Colorado low and temps were cold enough for a ton of snow all the way across Nebraska

[gabel23]

GFS has been consistent for the last several runs in showing a big storm around the 20th. I know it's in fantasy land, but it's been on every run the last couple of days. Tonight's 0Z run showed a wonderful Colorado low and temps were cold enough for a ton of snow all the way across Nebraska

That would drop like 2 feet of snow, lol! Too bad it's two weeks away, I would be glad just to see any type of precip at this point.

[CentralNebWeather]

That has now went way north on the 12Z GFS.  Too good to be true as the Colorado Low has disappeared.  It is now a South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota storm.  Raise your hand if you have heard that said this winter.  I sure have.  I am fearful that this winter season will end with no Colorado Lows and at least for our area no Winter Storm Watches.  I don't think I can ever remember that in my lifetime.

[clintbeed1993]

That has now went way north on the 12Z GFS.  Too good to be true as the Colorado Low has disappeared.  It is now a South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota storm.  Raise your hand if you have heard that said this winter.  I sure have.  I am fearful that this winter season will end with no Colorado Lows and at least for our area no Winter Storm Watches.  I don't think I can ever remember that in my lifetime.

 

 

I agree, never thought I would live through a winter with 0 winter storms.  This winter has been a nightmare.

[CentralNebWeather]

From Hastings NWS this morning, March 9.

 

BEYOND: WE STILL SEE A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES
FOR A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT RESULTS IN A WRN USA
LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING AROUND TUE 3/18. THE EC CONTROL RUN AND
EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A CO LOW
HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES. WE HAVE NOT SEE THIS ALL WINTER LONG AS
THE PATTERN HAS NOT SUPPORTED IT. IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT QPF. THE SHIFT TO A -PNA PATTERN SUGGESTS
A PERIOD OF COLD WX TOWARD THE END OF THIS MONTH.

 

We can only hope this comes true.

[tim the weatherman]

From Hastings NWS this morning, March 9.

 

BEYOND: WE STILL SEE A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES

FOR A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT RESULTS IN A WRN USA

LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING AROUND TUE 3/18. THE EC CONTROL RUN AND

EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A CO LOW

HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES. WE HAVE NOT SEE THIS ALL WINTER LONG AS

THE PATTERN HAS NOT SUPPORTED IT. IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD HAVE

POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT QPF. THE SHIFT TO A -PNA PATTERN SUGGESTS

A PERIOD OF COLD WX TOWARD THE END OF THIS MONTH.

 

We can only hope this comes true.

it'will happen.

[CentralNebWeather]

In other news Nebraska is going nuts right now with the basketball victory over Wisconsin. Not a basketball state but hope that is changing

[clintbeed1993]

From Hastings NWS this morning, March 9.

 

BEYOND: WE STILL SEE A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES

FOR A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT RESULTS IN A WRN USA

LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING AROUND TUE 3/18. THE EC CONTROL RUN AND

EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A CO LOW

HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES. WE HAVE NOT SEE THIS ALL WINTER LONG AS

THE PATTERN HAS NOT SUPPORTED IT. IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD HAVE

POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT QPF. THE SHIFT TO A -PNA PATTERN SUGGESTS

A PERIOD OF COLD WX TOWARD THE END OF THIS MONTH.

 

We can only hope this comes true.

 

Colorado Low would definitely be amazing.  Watch it be too warm for snow when it develops..just our luck.

[Jaycee]

Around 252 hr on the GFS it shows a potential severe weather outbreak. I'm like ... 

 

http://s3-ec.buzzfed.com/static/enhanced/web05/2012/9/8/17/anigif_enhanced-buzz-7918-1347140075-11.gif