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March 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Pretty incredible proof of the LRC rearing it's ugly head this year. You can see proof of the big ridge that has affected us in the Central US. Gary wrote about this in his morning blog. If we don't see rain in the next couple of weeks the drought will only continue to expand. 

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Just finished up some 20 yard sprints at the park (while doing a 16 hour fasting)...it feels like summer out there!  Currently at 75F...lovin' every minute of it...that is, until the pneumonia front hits after 6:00pm...doh!

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huge bust today here in Omaha. Forecast high was 67 and we haven't made it out of the upper 40s. also haven't seen much rain from this system when earlier this week it looked like it was going to produce over an inch. we'll see what happens tonight into tomorrow morning

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No joke, its like comparing these fronts to what it would be like experiencing heavy snow fall and have it changeover to 33F rain and melt all of your snow!  No bueno!  I actually got some color hanging out outside all day so I'll take what I can.

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From what I can tell, this is only the 3rd time that Chicago has had an 80+ degree temperature and a 6"+ snowstorm 10 days or less apart, and the first time it's happened in March. The 1910 case appears to have been a slow moving cutoff low, so it's included even though it spanned 5 days.

 

 

 

4/22-26/1910: 6.4"; high of 86 on 4/29

 

10/18-20/1989: 6.3"; high of 83 on 10/15

 

3/12-14/2017: 7.7"; high of 82 on 3/24

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Dreary, chilly, raw and wet morning over here.  The summer tease, was just that...a big tease...getting some good stratiform rains.  Nice comma shape look to this system.  E NE/IA/IL getting some good soaking rains.

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I picked up a disappointing, but decent 0.53" from this system.  I certainly hope the Euro is right about more wet systems lifting through the area next week and beyond.  The GFS has gone suppressed and dry.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Last 25 days have had around 2.25 inches of rain down here. Still need to catch up. Multiple systems forecast to come through over the next 2 weeks will continue to help with the drought. Myself and volunteer firemen are pretty happy for what rains we've had though. It appears to me that the long term central US ridge has moved to the west recently.

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Last weeks Pneumonia Front almost tied a record temp drop since records began in 1872.  It missed it by 1 degree when it dropped 30 degrees in 1 hour back in 1908.

 

 

 

  • For Chicago (O'Hare), the temperature dropped 29° in one hour, dropping from 77° at 5:15 pm to 48° at 6:15 pm.  
    • ​The record dating back to 1872 for largest one hour temperature drop in Chicago was 30°, from 71° to 41° from 2 to 3 pm on March 26, 1908.
  • For Waukegan, IL (far northern Chicago metropolitan area), the temperature dropped 20° in just five minutes!  It dropped from 79° at 3:05 pm to 59° at 3:10 pm.  The one hour drop was 31° from 79° to 48°.
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Another very wet storm system looks to target the southern Plains Tue/Wed period along with more severe wx down by OK.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017032712/nam3km_apcpn_scus_20.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017032712/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_58.png

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18z NAM 3km dumping heavy rains right where the need it most in the S/C Plains...

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/current/current_usdm.png

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017032718/nam3km_apcpn_scus_20.png

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It's amazing how in the winter, it seemed like every storm track cut hard northwest and left us with no snow or rain first and a little snow.  

Now the track has set up way south and is giving us rain on the cool side of all these systems and no real thunder threat. 12Z GFS has a very active southerly storm track too for the next 2 weeks. Had an inch of rain a few days ago, and the storm mid week looks to just give us a cold rain from Tuesday night all the way to Thursday morning. Could see another 1-2" of rain. Not the fast start to severe weather around here yet. Imagine if this could have all been snow!

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It's amazing how in the winter, it seemed like every storm track cut hard northwest and left us with no snow or rain first and a little snow.  

Now the track has set up way south and is giving us rain on the cool side of all these systems and no real thunder threat. 12Z GFS has a very active southerly storm track too for the next 2 weeks. Had an inch of rain a few days ago, and the storm mid week looks to just give us a cold rain from Tuesday night all the way to Thursday morning. Could see another 1-2" of rain. Not the fast start to severe weather around here yet. Imagine if this could have all been snow!

ORD managed to get 1.02" of liquid over the weekend with another 1-2" of rain Thu-Fri.  Highs all week only in the mid/upper 40's with a wind off the lake.  Hello Spring in Chicago!

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