March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[WeatherArchive]

Indeed. Hopefully a summer with lots of wild swings, more like 2008 than 2009. Heat spikes, thunderstorm outbreaks, drizzly marine later days. Those are the best kinds of summers.

mmmmmmmmm

[TT-SEA]

Officially now the wettest Feb/Mar ever at SEA with copious rain coming over the next 24 hours.     

 

And it looks like April starts out very wet... so its possible we could have the wettest Feb/Mar/Apr ever as well.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Officially now the wettest Feb/Mar ever at SEA with copious rain coming over the next 24 hours.     

 

And it looks like April starts out very wet... so its possible we could have the wettest Feb/Mar/Apr ever as well.  

 

Go big or go home. 

[TT-SEA]

Go big or go home. 

 

I actually feel the same.   Just wish this very wet period would end now given the time of year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I actually feel the same.   Just wish this very wet period would end now given the time of year. 

 

Me too. I actually am really trying to do a lot of things on my property this year, Been composting the garden spot all fall/winter, so I need to rototill, clearing the lower pasture, putting new fencing in, etc... I've been working outside about 1-2 hours every evening after work, but its been miserable in the rain. 

[Jesse]

Some sunny, 65/35 stuff would be amazing right now. November in March getting old.

[ShawniganLake]

Has your area been over 100F historically?

The cowichan valley, where I live, historically tops out around 99-102 or so. Inland Vancouver island (such as Port Alberni) tops out around 105/106 with longer stretches of 90+ much more common.

[Phil]

Perfect. Heatwaves around here are generally very enjoyable. Especially compared to what you're used to.

As long as the dewpoint stays under 70 degrees, I'm good.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The total for March so far is right around 6" here. Not overly wet but it's been persistent with just 2 totally dry days this month.

 

The pattern we're getting today is usually a big rainmaker here, with steady westerly flow the rain shadow has slipped further south. I've recorded 4 dry days this month, though there were a lot of days with under 0.1" of rain.

[ShawniganLake]

As long as the dewpoint stays under 70 degrees, I'm good.

.

That won't be a problem. Where are you going fishing?

[newtobc]

In Squamish we've had 15.5" of rain so far in march not including the almost 2' of snow at the start of the month. 29" for the year, most of which fell the last two months.

[Front Ranger]

Officially now the wettest Feb/Mar ever at SEA with copious rain coming over the next 24 hours.     

 

And it looks like April starts out very wet... so its possible we could have the wettest Feb/Mar/Apr ever as well.  

 

Still no 60 in sight yet at SEA, which is pretty incredible. Slight chance they get there on Friday/Saturday, but after that it looks like another 3-4 days almost certainly in the 50s.

[TT-SEA]

Still no 60 in sight yet at SEA, which is pretty incredible. Slight chance they get there on Friday/Saturday, but after that it looks like another 3-4 days almost certainly in the 50s.

 

April 11th is the latest ever... certainly looks possible to break that record.

 

1. April 11: 1954
2. April 8: 1957
3. April 7: 1959
4. April 4: 1950
5. April 4: 1971
6. April 3: 2002
7. April 2: 1967
8. March 31: 2000
9. March 30: 1976
10. March 29: 2003
11. March 28: 1964
12. March 27: 1955
13. March 25: 1969
14. March 25: 1997
15. March 25: 2013

[stuffradio]

I'm almost at 13" of precip this month.

 

Edit: I lied. I have almost 14".

[BLI snowman]

 

April 11th is the latest ever... certainly looks possible to break that record.

 

1. April 11: 1954
2. April 8: 1957
3. April 7: 1959
4. April 4: 1950
5. April 4: 1971
6. April 3: 2002
7. April 2: 1967
8. March 31: 2000
9. March 30: 1976
10. March 29: 2003
11. March 28: 1964
12. March 27: 1955
13. March 25: 1969
14. March 25: 1997
15. March 25: 2013

 

 

Most of those were cooler summers, too.

[epiceast]

 

April 11th is the latest ever... certainly looks possible to break that record.

 

1. April 11: 1954
2. April 8: 1957
3. April 7: 1959
4. April 4: 1950
5. April 4: 1971
6. April 3: 2002
7. April 2: 1967
8. March 31: 2000
9. March 30: 1976
10. March 29: 2003
11. March 28: 1964
12. March 27: 1955
13. March 25: 1969
14. March 25: 1997
15. March 25: 2013

 

Still only a 58 here. I wonder if Missoula's latest 60 is in the same neighborhood as well.

[DareDuck]

You don't have to go too far for dry weather. Here in Bend, I don't think we've even received an inch this month. Throughout this entire wet pattern the last two months, we haven't received more than .10-.15" in a day.

[epiceast]

You don't have to go too far for dry weather. Here in Bend, I don't think we've even received an inch this month. Throughout this entire wet pattern the last two months, we haven't received more than .10-.15" in a day.

2" here in March, half of that falling in 4 days. We have stolen some completely sunny days and cold clear nights, but it's generally between at least 3 days between those events.

[Front Ranger]

The pattern Mar 30 - Apr 4 will probably end up more decent/variable than the past week for most of you. After that, 12z Euro goes nuts with GOA troughing...but a little bit westward shift with that would result in much warmer/drier weather for the PNW.

[TT-SEA]

The pattern Mar 30 - Apr 4 will probably end up more decent/variable than the past week for most of you. After that, 12z Euro goes nuts with GOA troughing...but a little bit westward shift with that would result in much warmer/drier weather for the PNW.

 

We have seen that promised many times and it does not happen.   I will believe when I see it.  

[Front Ranger]

Downtown Seattle north to Everett has been quite a bit drier today than other places thanks to the Olympic rain shadow. 

 

In fact, WFO Seattle has seen almost 2" less rain in Feb/Mar than SEA. Still a lot of rain, but a significant difference. 

[BLI snowman]

Downtown Seattle north to Everett has been quite a bit drier today than other places thanks to the Olympic rain shadow.

 

In fact, WFO Seattle has seen almost 2" less rain in Feb/Mar than SEA. Still a lot of rain, but a significant difference.

Perfectly normal gradient in a predominantly SW flow pattern as we've had.

[Front Ranger]

Perfectly normal gradient in a predominantly SW flow pattern as we've had.

 

Indeed. Though I would say a bit more pronounced north of Seattle than normal with the persistent S/SW flow.

 

I've said it before...spring is typically the season more than any other where Seattle proper is drier/sunnier than most of the western lowlands. Obviously this pattern hasn't been dry or sunny for the most part, but that rain shadow still makes a difference and will continue to over the next month or two, especially with more westerly flow patterns.

 

Tim was talking last night about "copious" rain amounts today. BFI has a grand total of .03" since 3 am. And they've been on the very southern end of the rain shadow. 

[stuffradio]

I've received 1.75" of rain as of 5PM.

[TT-SEA]

Indeed. Though I would say a bit more pronounced north of Seattle than normal with the persistent S/SW flow.

 

I've said it before...spring is typically the season more than any other where Seattle proper is drier/sunnier than most of the western lowlands. Obviously this pattern hasn't been dry or sunny for the most part, but that rain shadow still makes a difference and will continue to over the next month or two, especially with more westerly flow patterns.

 

Tim was talking last night about "copious" rain amounts today. BFI has a grand total of .03" since 3 am. And they've been on the very southern end of the rain shadow. 

 

I really meant tonight for SEA.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snuck in a mostly dry day. Light rain starting now as the sun sets.

[TT-SEA]

IO appears to have warmed up a little over the last week.   Also the eastern ENSO regions have cooled.

 

7 day change...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[Phil]

IO appears to have warmed up a little over the last week. Also the eastern ENSO regions have cooled.

 

7 day change...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

The EPAC has definitely cooled, but the IO looks neutral to me given the cooling E/NE of Madagascar. Relative to the global SSTA mean, the IO remains an icebox:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

 

Which is why the models keep subsidence locked there:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D228C5F1-5360-4F90-9643-B6E1B22B2533_zpse5nvxbxq.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BE8B81C9-CCDD-4ECA-998C-85D9388BA84B_zpsrxjuojoh.png

[FroYoBro]

The Blazers are still going to the playoffs btw. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Silver Falls January Stats are out. They actually picked up a little more snow than I did in January. Their coldest day was 25/13 compared to my 24/13. Very solid cold month overall.

 

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=2017&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[BLI snowman]

The Blazers are still going to the playoffs btw.

They will likely sweep the Warriors.

[TT-SEA]

I like the KOMO update tonight... 

 

Our record breaking pace of rainfall will continue. Both March and February are proving to be excruciating, even by Northwest standards. So here are the lovely details. Steady rain returns overnight and will be around virtually the entire day on Wednesday. In addition, wind will be in the neighborhood of 15 to 30 mph which almost guarantees a typically slow commute on both sides of the clock.

High temperatures will stay in the mid-50s so at least we won't be shivering along with being drenched. If you are ready for a break, (and who isn't at this point) rain will taper off through Thursday night. On Friday we have a decent chance of partly to mostly sunny skies with high temperatures near 60°. After that, it’s right back to a chance of rain. Finally, and I hesitate to bring this up, the long range precipitation models indicate that April will also be cooler AND wetter than normal. If all of this is making you consider packing a suitcase and heading to SeaTac to go anywhere with sun, you might turn around and see me standing in the line right behind you.

[Jesse]

I like the KOMO update tonight... 

 

Our record breaking pace of rainfall will continue. Both March and February are proving to be excruciating, even by Northwest standards. So here are the lovely details. Steady rain returns overnight and will be around virtually the entire day on Wednesday. In addition, wind will be in the neighborhood of 15 to 30 mph which almost guarantees a typically slow commute on both sides of the clock.

High temperatures will stay in the mid-50s so at least we won't be shivering along with being drenched. If you are ready for a break, (and who isn't at this point) rain will taper off through Thursday night. On Friday we have a decent chance of partly to mostly sunny skies with high temperatures near 60°. After that, it’s right back to a chance of rain. Finally, and I hesitate to bring this up, the long range precipitation models indicate that April will also be cooler AND wetter than normal. If all of this is making you consider packing a suitcase and heading to SeaTac to go anywhere with sun, you might turn around and see me standing in the line right behind you.

 

It would be great if a bunch of people left the PNW for good. It is getting overcrowded up here. Unfortunately the opposite seems to be true and people are moving here in droves. Maybe we will get lucky and a few wet and gloomy springs and summers will put an end to that, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

[Jesse]

It's funny, I could definitely go for a break from the rain, but it doesn't have me crawling out of my skin and wanting to rush down to the airport. Seems more like a spoiled yuppie issue than anything.

 

Friday and Saturday are looking "nice" right now. That is more than enough to keep me happy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It would be great if a bunch of people left the PNW for good. It is getting overcrowded up here. Unfortunately the opposite seems to be true and people are moving here in droves. Maybe we will get lucky and a few wet and gloomy springs and summers will put an end to that, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

Yeah its amazing how many people are moving here. Its a nice place I don't necessarily blame them. My friend and her husband just made an offer on a house in Tigard for 354K, 1400 square foot house. You could buy a 40 acre place with about 3500' square feet for that in Oklahoma. lol

 

Not to mention my house is bigger with 3 acres and I paid a little over half that 6 years ago...Buy low...

 

It is kind of sad, bust your a** to make a 6 figure salary to buy some shitty house in some crappy suburb. No wonder people live in the Dallas Metroplex or Atlanta, etc... You can buy a nice place and still have money left over. 

[epiceast]

It's funny, I could definitely go for a break from the rain, but it doesn't have me crawling out of my skin and wanting to rush down to the airport. Seems more like a spoiled yuppie issue than anything.

 

Friday and Saturday are looking "nice" right now. That is more than enough to keep me happy.

I'm a little disappointed we're going to get those nice days immediately following a 1'-2' dump in west montana. We're terrible at getting those big snowfalls in late spring, and we're also wasting the nice weekend warming up the fresh snow, so the skiing will suck too. 

[TT-SEA]

It would be pretty bad if there was a mass exodus up here... abandoned houses?    I think of Detroit. 

 

Rapidly shrinking cities are never good places to live.  

 

It won't happen.   There will always be new people willing to move in and fill the void if there was lots of people moving out.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It would be pretty bad if there was a mass exodus up here... abandoned houses?    I think of Detroit. 

 

Rapidly shrinking cities are never good places to live.  

 

It won't happen.   There will always be new people willing to move in and fill the void if there was lots of people moving out.  

 

My childhood friend lives in Detroit, he actually likes it. Bought a decent house for about 40K. Lives a pretty comfortable lifestyle with his wife and kid, only makes about 60K a year, but lives very well. 

[Jesse]

It would be pretty bad if there was a mass exodus up here... abandoned houses?    I think of Detroit. 

 

Rapidly shrinking cities are never good places to live.  

 

It won't happen.   There will always be new people willing to move in and fill the void if there was lots of people moving out.  

 

Until they discover the horrors of our maritime climate. Quick, I need an airplane!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Until they discover the horrors of our maritime climate. Quick, I need an airplane!

 

First class to Michigan!

 

http://cdn01.cdn.justjared.com/wp-content/uploads/headlines/2017/03/eminem-daughter-hailie-scott-all-grown-up.jpg