March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[IbrChris]

I don't think Andrew Breitbart would have supported Trump nor would he have taken Breitbart media in the direction Steve Bannon has.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's more like it   

 

I heeded your advice!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think Andrew Breitbart would have supported Trump nor would he have taken Breitbart media in the direction Steve Bannon has.

 

Disagree with the first part, agree with the 2nd. 

 

He was a hero to a lot of Libertarians so they don't want to think he would have supported Trump. I get that, when someone passes away who we revere we kind of try to remake or project them in our own image.

[epiceast]

That's actually what happened in March 1951.

I would have easier time buying this in January or December, because of sun angles. I think any march event would have fairly supportive upper level dynamics, not just a thin 850-700mb layer.

[epiceast]

Final February Stats

 

Is Silver Falls just not good at scoring snow for a foothills location? Maybe the broad valley which has the road up to Detroit have something to do with it?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is Silver Falls just not good at scoring snow for a foothills location? Maybe the broad valley which has the road up to Detroit have something to do with it?

 

Please clarify? For 1600' in the W. Cascade foothills this was a pretty typical total for this February. We haven't had great snow patterns for foothills snow in NW Oregon this year (The Coast Range is another story.). 

 

Someone I know who lives at 1000' in Sandy says they've only had about 8" this whole wither and I believe Mark Nelsen has only recorded 15" at 1100' near the mouth of the gorge. Compared to that my totals are pretty robust. 

 

Generally my area does pretty well by Oregon Cascade foothill standards. Detroit isn't much higher, but gets a lot more snow because it is much deeper into the Cascades and surrounded by 4-5,000' mountains which do a good job trapping cold air. 

[epiceast]

Please clarify? For 1600' in the W. Cascade foothills this was a pretty typical total for this February. We haven't had great snow patterns for foothills snow in NW Oregon this year (The Coast Range is another story.). 

 

Someone I know who lives at 1000' in Sandy says they've only had about 8" this whole wither and I believe Mark Nelsen has only recorded 15" at 1100' near the mouth of the gorge. Compared to that my totals are pretty robust. 

 

Generally my area does pretty well by Oregon Cascade foothill standards. Detroit isn't much higher, but gets a lot more snow because it is much deeper into the Cascades and surrounded by 4-5,000' mountains which do a good job trapping cold air. 

I'm just looking at your signature and it says you have to go all the way back to 2011-2012 to see a good snow year. This year will probably only end up being decent. I feel like 1600' in north oregon cascades foothills should be doing a lot better, maybe a 40" average in past 5 years.

[ShawniganLake]

I'm just looking at your signature and it says you have to go all the way back to 2011-2012 to see a good snow year. This year will probably only end up being decent. I feel like 1600' in north oregon cascades foothills should be doing a lot better, maybe a 40" average in past 5 years.

It's been a stretch of mild winters in the NW. Not much cold onshore flow. Obviously this year has been cold.

[BLI snowman]

I would have easier time buying this in January or December, because of sun angles. I think any march event would have fairly supportive upper level dynamics, not just a thin 850-700mb layer.

 

The -20c 850mb line does briefly cross into MT around 192 on the 12z Euro. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm just looking at your signature and it says you have to go all the way back to 2011-2012 to see a good snow year. This year will probably only end up being decent. I feel like 1600' in north oregon cascades foothills should be doing a lot better, maybe a 40" average in past 5 years.

 

The past few years have not had much in the way of cold onshore flow which is what really racks up the snow totals here. 2007-08 probably had close to 150" here, and 2008-09 and 2010-11 probably had 75-100". 

 

It is interesting, good setups for valley snow are not always good setups for snow here. I think March 21, 2012 was the only time since I have lived here where the valley had widespread snow and I got signifcantly more. December 14, January 7th, January 10-11 this year the valley did better, and February 2014 I got about the same as the valley. 

 

Often with the overrunning types of events the foothills get warm nosed, it happens more often than you think and it happens even with pretty weak WAA. 

[Phil]

Analyzing the DJF 500mb geopotential bright anomalies, the closest match may actually be 1992/93.

[Phil]

Unless the (low frequency) domain of anomalous tropical convection shifts east of 140E, this setup favors a very troughy spring and summer across northwest North America, including the PNW and Northern Rockies.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Analyzing the DJF 500mb geopotential bright anomalies, the closest match may actually be 1992/93.

Kind of makes sense actually.

[Jesse]

Unless the (low frequency) domain of anomalous tropical convection shifts east of 140E, this setup favors a very troughy spring and summer across northwest North America, including the PNW and Northern Rockies.

:wub:

[Jesse]

pdx already up to 50 spring has sprung their

[Timmy Supercell]

I'm just looking at your signature and it says you have to go all the way back to 2011-2012 to see a good snow year. This year will probably only end up being decent. I feel like 1600' in north oregon cascades foothills should be doing a lot better, maybe a 40" average in past 5 years.

 

Don't tell me you forgot, 3 of the past 5 winters were drought seasons. Probably should check out my signature as well

 

The cascades did horribly during that time period.

[Timmy Supercell]

Looks like the last 6 days of February made a significant impact on my warm running Mean (was +4.8 first 22 days), now the Mean for last month is +1.6 from normal. High was actually -0.6 (was +2.4 first 22 days), with the Low at +3.9. Well that deescalated quickly...

[TT-SEA]

That's actually what happened in March 1951.

 

I sure hope we find a way to follow the 1951 template for the rest of spring as well.     

[Jesse]

Not a lot of ensemble support for the 12z Euro's crazy pattern evolution days 7-10.

 

Par for the climo I suppose. Although I would not complain about a March 1951 redux at all.

[Jesse]

I sure hope we find a way to follow the 1951 template for the rest of spring as well.

I agree, that was a very nice Spring.

 

I wonder if the long range pattern signals Phil is picking up on favor troughing centered slightly to our east. That is where 1951 went later on.

[MossMan]

I sure hope we find a way to follow the 1951 template for the rest of spring as well.     

If myself and jetskis were around in 1951 would I have been on the lake a lot?

[TT-SEA]

If myself and jetskis were around in 1951 would I have been on the lake a lot?

 

You would have been on the lake many times in April that year... lots of warm, sunny days.    Although the nights were cool.  

 

1951 featured one of the nicest months of April ever.   Rain on only 4 days... many days in the 60s and 70s and some low 80s.  

 

The summer of 1951 was also spectacular.   

[Phil]

I agree, that was a very nice Spring.

 

I wonder if the long range pattern signals Phil is picking up on favor troughing centered slightly to our east. That is where 1951 went later on.

Need to get through the "spring barrier" for lower frequency tropical predictability first, but I think there's a good chance this will be a cooler, troughier summer than 2016 was. I'm just not sure exactly where the offshore ridge will set up.

 

Could set up near/south of the Aleutians like 2011, with the corresponding trough over the coastal PNW/GOA. Or it could set up slightly farther east, in the GOA, which would be a cool/dry pattern as opposed to a cool/wet pattern.

 

All depends where the convection sets up during M/A/M. If you'd like links to sites that track this, let me know.

[Jesse]

If myself and jetskis were around in 1951 would I have been on the lake a lot?

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPAE/1951/3/1/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Everett&req_state=WA&reqdb.zip=98201&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999#calendar

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPAE/1951/4/1/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Everett&req_state=WA&reqdb.zip=98201&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999#calendar

[TT-SEA]

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPAE/1951/3/1/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Everett&req_state=WA&reqdb.zip=98201&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999#calendar

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPAE/1951/4/1/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Everett&req_state=WA&reqdb.zip=98201&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999#calendar

Everett was much cooler than my area in April 1951.

[Jesse]

Everett was much cooler than my area in April 1951.

Yeah, it's hard to tell how it was at Mossman's. I tried to look up Arlington but the wunderground calendar feature didn't go back that far for that location.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, it's hard to tell how it was at Mossman's. I tried to look up Arlington but the wunderground calendar feature didn't go back that far for that location.

 

His area is usually colder than my area in the warm months and warmer than my area in the cold months.  

 

Out here in April 1951 there were 15 days at 70 degrees or warmer and 3 days in the low 80s with measurable rain on only 4 days in the month. That is about the most perfect April possible around here.  

[Bryant]

Look, you had your winter. Can you just **** off and let us normal people enjoy some good weather now?

 

I'll be bummed if it's dark and rainy all summer.

I'd love that kind of spring, do I get to **** off too?

[Timmy Supercell]

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPAE/1951/3/1/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Everett&req_state=WA&reqdb.zip=98201&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999#calendar

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPAE/1951/4/1/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Everett&req_state=WA&reqdb.zip=98201&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999#calendar

 

I just noticed KLMT now goes back to even further. When did they add all this info? I remember I couldn't go further than 1970 or 1975 here for Klamath.

 

Time to compile some more thunderstorm data!!! 

[Jesse]

His area is usually colder than my area in the warm months and warmer than my area in the cold months.

 

Out here in April 1951 there were 15 days at 70 degrees or warmer and 3 days in the low 80s with measurable rain on only 4 days in the month. That is about the most perfect April possible around here.

That's amazing. Even down here there were only ten 70+ days and one in the low 80s.

[TT-SEA]

That's amazing. Even down here there were only ten 70+ days and one in the low 80s.

 

70 degrees or better on 4/2, 3, 6, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26

 

I miscounted though... 14 days not 15.

[TT-SEA]

Slow melting here... the ground is still covered.

 

[Front Ranger]

I sure hope we find a way to follow the 1951 template for the rest of spring as well.     

 

The following the templates of previous year thing always works out.

[Front Ranger]

His area is usually colder than my area in the warm months and warmer than my area in the cold months.  

 

Out here in April 1951 there were 15 days at 70 degrees or warmer and 3 days in the low 80s with measurable rain on only 4 days in the month. That is about the most perfect April possible around here.  

 

That's very warm. How does it compare to April 2004 for your area?

[TT-SEA]

That's very warm. How does it compare to April 2004 for your area?

 

I remember that being a great month as well.    

 

Looks like 10 days over 70 that month and 3 of those days in the low 80s.

[TT-SEA]

The following the templates of previous year thing always works out.

 

Never does!   But I can still hope.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Slow melting here... the ground is still covered.

 

 

I was surprised to see there was still snow cover here this evening when I got home. Still a solid 2-3". Hasn't been below freezing in about 36 hours. 45/35 so far today. 

[snow_wizard]

 

Hard to complain about the ECMWF today. That would really be a cherry on top for this winter if it verified.

[seattleweatherguy]

Hard to complain about the ECMWF today. That would really be a cherry on top for this winter if it verified.

Mouth watering go into details if you got time

[Jesse]

Mouth watering go into details if you got time

 

About the best pattern you could ask for for widespread lowland snow in March. Especially later on in the run. Very 1951-esque.