Tom Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Parts of the Midwest/Lakes will end Feb in Spring fashion with a large area under the risk of severe wx. Meanwhile, north of the "cheddar curtain" and in N MI snow will fall....but how much??? A dynamic frontal system will have all the ingredients in play to produce some interesting wx around these parts. Let's discuss... 12z NAM - Para is showing some intense warm front rains in IA/IL around dinner time today... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017022812/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_15.png Squall line forms and the potential for over night Tornado's are on the table in S IL/MO/IN.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017022812/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_18.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017022812/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_23.png Snow potential... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017022812/nam3km_asnow_ncus_39.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Been a long time since I had this in my zone 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Futurecast shows SMI filling in and changing over to snow on the back side of the SLP vs those maps above. Hmm...guess we'll see who's right soon enough 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Severe storm near MSN and heading towards NW burbs of MKE and near Money that is producing large hail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Dynamic setup for you guys in illinois. This is cooking up to be a monster outbreak. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Dynamic setup for you guys in illinois. This is cooking up to be a monster outbreak.Should be interesting around here to say the least. 2 severe wx set ups in a February to Remember...this particular one looks to finish off with a bang... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 So what are we looking for with this storm? We're getting precip, but the models aren't agreeing when it'll change from rain to snow? Is that where the difference in totals comes from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Wow, SPC just updated a wide area of Moderate Risk... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/activity_loop.gif 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Wow, SPC just updated a wide area of Moderate Risk... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/activity_loop.gif Shear values are incredible it looks like. Haven't seen the SPC issue a 15% hatched risk for tornadoes in I don't know how long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Shear values are incredible it looks like. Haven't seen the SPC issue a 15% hatched risk for tornadoes in I don't know how long.This severe wx season is going to be quite interesting I'd imagine. If the LRC's ridge develops in the south/central Plains I can see many "Ring of Fire" patterns developing. Meantime, looks like the clouds are clearing in IA/MO...day time heating starting up... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Shear values are incredible it looks like. Haven't seen the SPC issue a 15% hatched risk for tornadoes in I don't know how long. And just about exactly 5 yrs sine the March 5th 2012 event. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Great severe setup for you to the SE. Strange to see moderate risk areas that far north in Feb. North of there we may sneak in a few inches of snow in the last hours of the month to avoid any snowless records. Go figure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 EURO cut back on totals. 4 inches now in he max Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 EURO cut back on totals. 4 inches now in he maxMore like 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 SPC just issued a Meso. with 80% Tornado Watch issuance likely for most of the CWA. Wondering if it will be a PDS watch, though I am young, I can't remember the last time in February my area, this far N, was in an enhanced risk for severe weather. Definitely going to be active to say the least. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 S/C Wisco issued a WWA for 3-5" of snow... http://www.weather.gov/images/mkx/snowaccum/SnowMap_WI.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Tornado Watch just issued for all of IL!!! Impressive.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Cool to see an entire state the size of IL under a tornado watch. Also cool to see a WWA 2 counties north of there in WI. Spring storms for the win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Cool to see an entire state the size of IL under a tornado watch. Also cool to see a WWA 2 counties north of there in WI. Spring storms for the win.March rolling in like a Lion! To bad this couldn't be a full blown blizzard some where... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 55 degrees in Oregon wi...45 in Madison wi a little earlier. Crazy temp gradient! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 My forecast has it all, from severe weather later tonight, flooding, very strong winds, possibly record warmth, colder air arriving and potential for accumulating snowfall later tomorrow afternoon and evening (generally in the 1-3inch category "Big Woop"). Too bad it cant be a full blown snowstorm with 12"+. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Storms are already firing up in E IA/W IL and some are spawning Tornado warnings.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Tornado Watch just issued for all of IL!!! Impressive....Something you don't usually see often, that's for sure. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 I wonder if this storm has potential to overachieve in accumulations. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Tornado touchdown near Clinton, IA and heading east into W IL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Tornado OTG near Ottawa/Morris area near I-80....just heard my first clap of thunder as storms are firing up! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Tornado OTG near Ottawa/Morris area near I-80....just heard my first clap of thunder as storms are firing up!Heard it damaged a nursing home...not good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Heard it damaged a nursing home...not good.Baseball size hail...craziness Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Baseball size hail...crazinessOf course Chicago's radar dies during this too. Joliet better buckle up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 2 more cells follow right in the path of that tornado warned cell headed towards Channahon and Joliet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Of course Chicago's radar dies during this too. Joliet better buckle up.The radar is down due to the tornado that rolled through near it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Training storms galore...gosh, I keep having to scratch my head and reminding myself it is Feb 28th! Seems like late April to me... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Tom that line forming between DeKalb and Rockford has its right blinker on. Might be fun for you in a bit. Man severe wx is so much better than tracking winter storms. I now see 1-3" in my point for tonight. We might get more snow in the first hour of March than we did all of Feb. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Tom that line forming between DeKalb and Rockford has its right blinker on. Might be fun for you in a bit. Man severe wx is so much better than tracking winter storms. I now see 1-3" in my point for tonight. We might get more snow in the first hour of March than we did all of Feb.Explosive radar tonight! That batch of storms might miss me to the NW and hit McHenry and Lake county. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2017 Report Share Posted February 28, 2017 Washburn Tornado: https://twitter.com/mkg81/status/836723348797288453/photo/1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2017 Washburn Tornado: https://twitter.com/mkg81/status/836723348797288453/photo/1That's huge! F3 possibly? We'll see tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 1, 2017 Report Share Posted March 1, 2017 The scary thing about this set up is the peak isn't supposed to be until after dark. Tornado threat should continue pretty much all night which is the worst. Already one confirmed death. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 1, 2017 Report Share Posted March 1, 2017 The radar is down due to the tornado that rolled through near it.It's been down since yesterday according to the radar status message: 361NOUS63 KLOT 272103FTMLOTMessage Date: Feb 27 2017 21:04:27 The KLOT WSR-88D will be offline Until Further Notice due to equipment failure.Replacement parts have been backordered, and may not be here for a few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 1, 2017 Report Share Posted March 1, 2017 Mesoscale models are all on the north side of guidance with the snow piece of the system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 1, 2017 Report Share Posted March 1, 2017 Mesoscale models are all on the north side of guidance with the snow piece of the system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.