3/13 - 3/14 Midwest/Lakes Snow System

[Trinomial]

LOT has my grid at:

Tonight: 1 - 3

Monday 2 - 4

Monday night 1 - 2

Tuesday 1 - 2

 

That would be impressive if it reached the high end of that!

[FV-Mike]

Looking forward to it Tom. I remember a couple of times getting the lake effect this far west. Always a cool thing

[james1976]

Looks a bit heavier for my area compared to last run

gosaints looks to be in a prime spot again. Amazing winter for Rochester..

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2017031220/021/snku_acc.conus.png

[gosaints]

gosaints looks to be in a prime spot again. Amazing winter for Rochester..

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2017031220/021/snku_acc.conus.png

Best stuff just south of here it looks like. We will see. Coming down good now

[Tom]

LOT's take regarding the possibility of expanding the Lake Effect Snow Watch farther west...

 

 

 

Confidence in lake effect snow showers occurring during the
period is fairly high. However, given that lake effect bands of
heavy snow can and typically are rather localized, and can in some
cases be more transient, there remains somewhat lower confidence
with the specifics of duration of the heavy snow over any given
location over far northeastern Illinois into northwestern Indiana.
However, given the strong signal for a potent lake effect band of
heavy snow impacting northeastern Illinois, possibly for several
hours Monday night into Tuesday, I felt it prudent to highlight
the Monday night through Tuesday time period with a lake effect
snow watch, for the possibility for localized areas of 6+ inches
of additional snowfall. At the present, I have only included Lake
Illinois, Dupage and Cook counties in this watch. It is possible
some of the heavier snow bands could impact the inland adjacent
counties, but at the present we have opted to leave the inland
counties out of the watch.

 

 

 

 

 

Looking forward to it Tom. I remember a couple of times getting the lake effect this far west. Always a cool thing

The trend in the higher rez modeling is very similar to the Jan 20-21st 2014 Lake Effect snowstorm storm that dumped 6-8" in NE IL...

 

We will probably see a band similar to this one...

 

 

  

[WBadgersW]

Still snowing in Chicago

 

[Bellona]

Starting to snow at a good rate in Waterloo now.

[gimmesnow]

I have been disappointed so much this winter, and I am finally going to get some snow. I don't even know how to feel. Like, it should be snowing 30 miles north of me and we should be getting rain or something. But it's so close there's no way it's going to disappoint.  I'm under WWA for 4-7 inches, ski hill going to be open all day tomorrow. I have not skied on real snow that hasn't been rained on in months.

 

Weather Channel's future map has a little finger of snow growing to reach out to me on their future radar. I am amazed.

[Tom]

Local Grid Forecast calling for 4-7" under WWA and 4-8" with Lake Effect...hoping for a middle ground 8-10"....up by Lake county they are forecasting 8-16"....

[Tony]

@ Tony/FV-Mike...you guys look like your going to cash in on the lake effect...

It usually does not add up this far West of the lake but maybe this could be the exception. Tom, you should do well with setup. Hope it exceeds 12" for lakeshore areas

[Niko]

With so many of the major model runs showing nuisance level totals here I'm really surprised at my headlines over here. Always a head-scratcher with that office I swear!

 

SEMI on the other hand should have one! Good luck over there, bet you wish you were back in NYC

Looking like a 4-7" event here in SMI. Will see how this turns out.

 

For something this extreme in snowfall, you bet.

[jaster220]

The 00z WRF had a broad band of heavy snow from S MN/N IA/S WI into N IL...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2017031200/wrf-nmm_apcpn_ncus_48.png

Would like to know why the WRF has way more qpf over SWMI than any other model?? Such a tease. That's the kind of moisture that would really make the headlines legit. Too bad it's all alone in it's solution.

[Niko]

I don't get the whole thing about watching other's mega-storms :-\ ??

 

Be different if we also got them, and it was just "their turn", but come on, this is like the 3rd or 4th bliz over there. makes me wanna puke tbh

Tbh, I cannot wait to see the EC blizzard radar. Even if its not our storm, I find it fascinating to watch big storms in other locations, even if they have cashed in big.

[WBadgersW]

How well do the WRF models usually handle Les/lehs? They show substantially more snow than most other models.

[james1976]

bout 3/4" here so far.
mostly pixie dust

[Niko]

http://i64.tinypic.com/14b2c0n.png

 

18z Canadian snowfall thru 48 hours. I like the way some of the moisture stretches further west. Perhaps more moisture for SEMI.

[Tom]

WRF usually runs a bit hot but can give the idea of heavier banding features.

[gosaints]

Tiny flakes

[Tom]

ORD is sitting at just over 18" for the season and by this time of the year, we should be at close to 30" on average.  Let's see how close we can get.

[St Paul Storm]

Tons of accidents on the roads here. The dry nature of the snow is making the roads super slick. Under one of the pop up weenie bands now. It's rockin out there. My call of 2" is going to bust low.

[gosaints]

Its rippin snow

[james1976]

Comin down hard. Just measured 2.1"

[james1976]

Not likeing the dry air in W IA moving in

[Money]

You can see the LE band really well on the HRRR:

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/841073524072681474

[gosaints]

Killing pretty good in this band...

[Tom]

RPM pounds NE IL with Lehs/LE snow...it has the 7" mark all the way out towards Bartlet and down towards Joliet.  Looks like Lake/Dupage/Cook county get the brunt of the snow.  ORD maxes out at 8.5" with 9.7" near Kenosha.  The lake plume just sits in the same areas for hours and finally pivots through after 7:00pm Tuesday.  I think some spots will exceed a Foot of snow.

[Tom]

Lake/Porter county in IN do well with 6-9"...

[Tom]

Killing pretty good in this band...

The radar is looking healthy out west...redevelopment out in SD/W MN

 

E IA boys look like they are cashing in.  How is out by you Bud/Hawkeye???

[gosaints]

The radar is looking healthy out west...redevelopment out in SD/W MN

 

E IA boys look like they are cashing in. How is out by you Bud/Hawkeye???

The best stuff might slow down in a bit but should snow lightly at least past midnight

[VMB443]

RPM pounds NE IL with Lehs/LE snow...it has the 7" mark all the way out towards Bartlet and down towards Joliet.  Looks like Lake/Dupage/Cook county get the brunt of the snow.  ORD maxes out at 8.5" with 9.7" near Kenosha.  The lake plume just sits in the same areas for hours and finally pivots through after 7:00pm Tuesday.  I think some spots will exceed a Foot of snow.

Does it indicate the situation a bit further north in Milwaukee?

[Hawkeye]

E IA boys look like they are cashing in.  How is out by you Bud/Hawkeye???

 

Very dry.  I had a bit of light snow an hour ago with an initial band, but I'm still waiting for the main batch, currently over me on radar, to saturate the column.  Bud has not seen a flake, yet.

[Tom]

Very dry.  I had a bit of light snow an hour ago with an initial band, but I'm still waiting for the main batch, currently over me on radar, to saturate the column.  Bud has not seen a flake, yet.

It's knocking on your door step.

 

Does it indicate the situation a bit further north in Milwaukee?

MKE and points south along the lake seem to be the theme of heaviest accumulations on the RPM.  The convergence zone takes over Monday night into Tuesday as winds shift more northerly over the land up your way.  The Lehs that hits on Monday is MKE's best stuff until the winds veer more N/NE.

[Tom]

All the models look fine and dandy, but now we need Mother Nature to perform....

[Tom]

Easterly flow off the lake may already be trying to saturate the column up by Waukegan/Kenosha...

 

 

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/LOT_0.png

 

[james1976]

Just crushing here.  3.4" now
1.3" in past 45mins

[james1976]

25 degrees. heavy snow. no wind. perfect

[Bellona]

Got 2.5 here in Waterloo...snowing hard!

[james1976]

Big gap in radar...but the heavy stuff is back building a bit west past I35.....maybe that gap will fill in.

[Bellona]

Dmx said dry slot should stay out there. Let's hope so!

[GDR]

Hit in hard here