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2017 Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread


Tom

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00z EURO showing a strong low tracking through W NE up towards the western Lakes.  This would be ideal for severe wx for a lot of posters in the Plains.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017031700/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_8.png

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The pattern is about to get real active as strong storms will begin to pound the west as the LRC's long term long wave trough sets up in the west for the remainder of March and into April.  The potential is there for a very active Spring severe wx season for the central CONUS.  What happens in the Summer is still up in the air as to how dry the pattern gets and where the "Ring of Fire" pattern aligns.  

 

Let's discuss the possible storm systems and pattern leading up to what will be a fun season of storm tracking.

 

CFSv2 still showing a very wet pattern in April...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

 

May...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd2.gif

 

 

 

 

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I'm liking those blobs of heavy moisture over Nebraska in April and May. Could be a fun, but hopefully not too dangerous/destructive severe weather season.

This could be your year for tracking severe wx.  I like the chances of an active season for you guys out that way.

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@ CFS maps

 

Glad to see "avg" precip for mby in SMI. Don't need/want tons of rain and not a huge severe wx fan. Y'all out west of me can have fun with that though.

 

Footnote on winter though. Amazing stat for Binghampton, NY Last winter they got only 32" total of snow (avg ~83") which was their all-time lowest total ever. After the Tue-wed bliz they're at almost 128" and just a few inches shy of their all-time snowiest winter. Talk about getting extremes!  :o 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I like these met's maps for severe wx potential later next week...still plenty of time for change...if this map comes close to verifying, I can see a pattern already developing since our severe wx outbreak in Feb.

 

 

 

C7M-MdwXgAAmq8x.jpg

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Severe wx threat shifting west...

 

C7R8T88XQAAdBEf.jpg

Going to have to keep pulling it west as the system is moving much slower now. Also not looking like much of a threat for Thursday anymore with limited moisture/CAPE. Friday might end up being the bigger day this way as now the Euro moves the lower further north/northeast vs previous runs

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Pretty impressive nocturnal MCS overnight and likely will be a theme heading into this Spring/Summer season.  Almost seems like a summer time pattern but a couple months early???  Spring has officially sprung in an active way around here.  Big time heat ridge over the southern plains provided fuel for the fire last night.

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Pretty impressive nocturnal MCS overnight and likely will be a theme heading into this Spring/Summer season.  Almost seems like a summer time pattern but a couple months early???  Spring has officially sprung in an active way around here.  Big time heat ridge over the southern plains provided fuel for the fire last night.

 

LOL, I had the exact same thoughts that it reminded me of the ROF pattern just earlier in the year. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Both GFS/EURO looking very similar for Fri...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017032012/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_5.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017032012/gfs_mslp_uv850_us_17.png

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SPC has NE outlooked for severe wx...

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/activity_loop.gif

 

 

 

 

...Central Plains, southern High Plains...
Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop in
a regime of intense/deep mixing near the dryline and move
northeastward across the central/southern High Plains from late
afternoon into early evening. Activity will cross a narrow corridor
of relatively maximized MLCINH corresponding to strong heating,
steep low/middle-level lapse rates, increasing large-scale lift, and
a proximal surface moist axis characterized by dew points generally
50s F. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main concerns,
amidst vertical wind profiles suitable for both supercells and
organized multicellular structures. Some of this activity may
congeal into a broken band of convection this evening as the
overtaking Pacific front supplies additional low-level forcing;
however, weakening near-surface instability with time and eastward
extent will help to mitigate lingering severe threat therewith.

Farther north, a mesoscale reservoir of relatively maximized
low-level moisture -- characterized by dew points mid-upper 50s F on
11Z-12Z surface charts and 0.8-1.1-inch PW in GPS readings -- was
evident over northwestern OK and southern KS, and was sampled to
some extent by the 12Z DDC sounding. This area of moisture may
reach the vicinity of the developing frontal zone over
southern/central NE relatively unperturbed by strong mixing, while
underlying a regime of cold air aloft with 8.5-9 deg C/km midlevel
lapse rates this afternoon, amidst weakening MLCINH and
strengthening lift. That combination may support a pocket of
2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE amidst 50-kt effective-shear magnitude,
suitable for supercell character with any relatively
sustained/discrete storm(s) t
hat can develop and move into the
regime. While coverage of any such convection is in question,
precluding a greater unconditional probability line at this time,
isolated very large hail or even a tornado cannot be ruled out.
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3 people killed in car accident while chasing a tornado in TX. Just a reminder of the inherited risk that comes along with chasing.

I read somewhere that it looks like someone blew past a stop sign which caused the fatal accident.

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I remember watching him yesterday afternoon streaming live near Lubbock, TX tracking a Tornado warned storm.  Literally, this was prob right before the accident happened.  How fragile life can be.  I will remember hearing his gentle, southern accent on TWC.  God bless him, his friends who passed away, as well as his family.  

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Some of you know I do quite a bit of chasing and honestly this is what scares me the most about chasing, not getting hurt or killed by a storm, but rather the driving and risks that come along with that especially when you can have so many people congested in one place. I feel like I have always given attention to intersections and stop signs, and when I have my chase partner with, he does a good job looking as well. Of course it only takes one time, and I'm sure I've missed something a time or two.

I remember shortly after the El Reno tornado having what happened to Tim Samaras and his partners on my mind all the time when chasing which slowly faded away. Now this will definitely be on my mind as well this season and hopefully going forward for future years. Condolences to everyone involved.

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The driver blew through multiple stop signs through the chase at least from the stream I saw which is irresponsible

The video I saw on the TWC looked like his car was streaming live and they cut the next scene right before the accident.  So what your saying is making sense.

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The video I saw on the TWC looked like his car was streaming live and they cut the next scene right before the accident.  So what your saying is making sense.

Yeah his live stream from yesterday that lasted for a couple of hours showed him running at least 3-4 stop signs from what other people are saying. Definitely not responsible.

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Yeah his live stream from yesterday that lasted for a couple of hours showed him running at least 3-4 stop signs from what other people are saying. Definitely not responsible.

I've never chased so don't know any better, but are you expected to obey the rules of the road when a tornado is in close proximity? Also don't know the situation that unfolded here - were they speeding towards or away from the storm?

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I've never chased so don't know any better, but are you expected to obey the rules of the road when a tornado is in close proximity? Also don't know the situation that unfolded here - were they speeding towards or away from the storm?

I think it is expected that everyone follows the rules at all times. Now if a tornado was racing at me at 60 mph, I might not follow all the rules. :D I know how to chase though and where to be so I have yet to have that happen to me.

Unfortunately, you see a lot of dumb people out chasing that don't follow the rules, whether that be speeding, stopping in the middle of the road, passing multiple cars at a time, etc. Out in the country, I think a fair amount of people choose not to always obey stop signs at seemingly desolate intersections because they assume no one will be coming from the other way.

From my understanding yesterday, these people weren't in any kind of danger where they were having to drive recklessly away from a storm. They were chasing it, presumably heading towards it or parallel to it or however you want to call it. It just sounds like the driver of one of the vehicles was either distracted or chose to ignore the stop sign.

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I am looking forward to damaging storms, although, not tornadic activity. Wouldn't want any damage done on my home. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I am looking forward to damaging storms, although, not tornadic activity. Wouldn't want any damage done on my home. :D

We want tornadic activity. Just in places where it won't cause any property or personal damage. :rolleyes:

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Next Monday looks like there could be another large swath of severe wx across the eastern corn belt/Lakes region...

 

C8lnbkYXYAEymoz.jpg

Please god give us some severe weather out here. Even that is managing to go around us right now, I would KILL for a good storm to roll through this weekend!

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Can't wait until NAM comes into range with this severe wx threat. It'll help to let us know of any location biases the GFS may potentially be having. Euro is a nudge more West with the better severe threats, which bleeds into my forecast territory. Not seeing the same long-lasting tornado threat I saw with yesterday's model runs, but this does have the potential to be an outbreak of general severe weather. The question, aside from location is a) Can a pretty strong cap be broken and b ) Will EHI values trend more upward, as that and LL Lapse Rates seem to be the greatest weaknesses right now.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Can't wait until NAM comes into range with this severe wx threat. It'll help to let us know of any location biases the GFS may potentially be having. Euro is a nudge more West with the better severe threats, which bleeds into my forecast territory. Not seeing the same long-lasting tornado threat I saw with yesterday's model runs, but this does have the potential to be an outbreak of general severe weather. The question, aside from location is a) Can a pretty strong cap be broken and b ) Will EHI values trend more upward, as that and LL Lapse Rates seem to be the greatest weaknesses right now.

 

I'm hoping the tornado threat comes back. No I don't want destruction either but those type of outbreaks are always accustomed by more intense severe threats as well. Hope the EURO is on to something, I'm also really anxious to see the NAM.

 

Also, it's supposed to be 76 and sunny on Saturday!! Can't wait to lay out and grill all day :D #daydrinking

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