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2017 Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread


Tom

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Here's a site that shows all the reports so far this year. You can see that GA(126), LA(73), MS(63) in the deep south/southeast make up nearly 1/3 of all the tornado reports. Kind of like I figured with the early season severe weather they had.

Nebraska has had 5. SD hasn't even had a tornado report this year and only 28 reports total!

Illinois has had almost as many reports as KS so far this year.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2017_annual_summary.html

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Enhanced risk of severe weather here today. New mesoscale discussion states a new watch will be issued shortly. Cloud tops on the bow echo out in W MN are approaching 50-55k feet. Gusts up to 70mph possible. If this morning activity gets out of the way quickly enough we have a decent shot at some good redevelopment later today.

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Enhanced risk of severe weather here today. New mesoscale discussion states a new watch will be issued shortly. Cloud tops on the bow echo out in W MN are approaching 50-55k feet. Gusts up to 70mph possible. If this morning activity gets out of the way quickly enough we have a decent shot at some good redevelopment later today.

I was thinking the same thing. These storms are coming in a bit ahead of what the models were hitting at. Looks the the first direct hit to MSP of a large storm in quite a long time.

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Glad to see you guys up north getting in on some storms.  Been a very long time as much of May all the storms were south of your area.  The real warmth/instability never made it up that far north during met Spring.

 

Longer range forecasts look like our seasons first "ring of fire" pattern may set up as a huge ridge blossoms over the Rockies and West.

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Here's a pic from my dock when the storm rolled in. Lightning struck a few hundred yards to my right when I was taking the panaramic shot, so thats why the right side of the pic is so much brighter. Picked up an inch of rain in about 20 minutes. Still steady rain now with vivid lightning. Total guess but I'd say the gusts were around 45 mph.

IMG_0995.JPG

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Here's a pic from my dock when the storm rolled in. Lightning struck a few hundred yards to my right when I was taking the panaramic shot, so thats why the right side of the pic is so much brighter. Picked up an inch of rain in about 20 minutes. Still steady rain now with vivid lightning. Total guess but I'd say the gusts were around 45 mph.

The land of 10,000 Lakes!  Love having a place on the water.  Great shot!

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Maybe some boomers by Tuesday and Wednesday in my neck of the woods. Hopefully, severe t'stms. :unsure:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'm currently out in Rapid City SD. It looks like we might get some action tomorrow.

Just after dinner time is when the atmosphere looks to ignite!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061206/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_20.png

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It's funny, all of a sudden OMA/LNK getting in on some morning storms...hearing reports of very large hail in excess of 1.5" near LNK...

We got smoked. 4.5" of rain at my house. So unexpected. Didn't get the huge hail but some decent sized stuff came down. Reports of egg sized hail on the southwest side of town. Pretty awesome!

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You're missing some action back home tonight! Dark enough for streetlights to go on - heaviest storms are north of my location but we have some nasty looking clouds and wind just started.

 

I'm currently out in Rapid City SD. It looks like we might get some action tomorrow.

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This heat wave will certainly dry out the region and I'd imagine the grass will start to turn brown in spots???

 

X-way medians are already bad and some very open grass is all brown. Drought-like feel to it. Since I just re-landscaped my garden and invested in some upgrades I'm watering every evening during this heatwave. With the electricity for the central a/c and water both coming from city of Marshall's over-priced utility dept, I'm sure I'll hate the bill I get next month! :(

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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X-way medians are already bad and some very open grass is all brown. Drought-like feel to it. Since I just re-landscaped my garden and invested in some upgrades I'm watering every evening during this heatwave. With the electricity for the central a/c and water both coming from city of Marshall's over-priced utility dept, I'm sure I'll hate the bill I get next month! :(

I know whatcha mean....hopefully, mother nature can provide some water. :unsure:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Some storm action around dinner time in E NE moving east into IA later this evening...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061306/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_19.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061306/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_21.png

 

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif?1497360955452

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See my post in the June thd for what I think of mby's chances, but I'd love to get lucky with that marginal stripe across SMI

 

Future-cast says it's possible, but I've had 80% likely in my NWS local and not a drop already once this spring, so zero holding of breath, lol

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The MPX office is usually pretty ho hum and rarely shows excitement, which makes this interesting:

We`ll start with this afternoon. First, when looking at forecast

shear/instability parameters along with forecast soundings for

today, the first reaction we have been hearing around the office

is wow. The type of environment forecast to be over MN today is

something that we only see maybe a couple of times a decade up

here. 3000-5000 j/kg of MLCAPE, 40-50 kts of deep shear, h85 jet

increasing to between 40 and 50 kts, and effective storm relative

helicity north of the warm front forecast to get up between 300

and 600 m2/s2. That warm front shows up well on the 0.5 degree

reflectivity from MPX just into the far southern Twin Cities metro

area and by most accounts, it is forecast to get up to or a little north of I-94

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Had an interesting night tonight. We had a gust front/dust front move through around 8:30 tonight. The dust dropped visibility down to a couple hundred feet. Reports show 65-70 mph winds at this time. It was insane! Lots of damage around town including this picture that I took on the east side of town. Here is Hastings write up from the other day. My picture made their page! 

damage2.6-13-17.JPG

damage1.6-13-17.JPG

house2.6-13-17.JPG

house3.6-13-17.JPG

house1.6-13-17.JPG

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Had a nice downpour this morning, which we sorely needed.  We hadn't had any precip the entire month.  But it was short lived and nothing else in store.  We'll see if more storms materialize later this week.  We could use a couple good 1-2" type storms here.  

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Chicago people-- I expect pictures coming in soon! Those storms have clocked 74 mph winds and they are rolling right over you guys right now. Looks intense!!!

I saw a video live feed on FB and it was pouring buckets! Crazy.

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Guessing winds of 60+ here this afternoon. Many trees 15"diameter and bigger down. Power was out for 3 hours.

The rolling hills of Madison...I love driving up to Wisco on the 90 and seeing the rolling hills and green lush forests/farmland.

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Interesting wording coming from the SPC on their Day 3 outlook. It is just a slight risk right now for Eastern Nebraska, Iowa, and Northern Missouri, but towards the end, sounds like they know they're going to increase it. I'm speculating, but from the sounds of this, if it does in fact pan out, someone is going to get an enhanced/moderate risk here in the next couple days:

 

It is possible that activity could consolidate and grow further upscale into one large forward (eastward/southeastward) propagating convective system capable of producing one or more broad swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts before convection weakens by late Saturday night.  Correspondingly, severe probabilities may be increased considerably further in subsequent outlooks closer to the event.  However, at this time, the forecast remains complicated by potential convective development in the preceding days, which remains unclear, and could provide negative feedback with regard to convective potential by Saturday. 

 

 

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uh-oh we've got a Derecho Watch for Saturday...  

 

From DVN NWS

 

Saturday/Saturday evening: A potent severe weather situation
appears to be shaping up for the afternoon and early evening
hours. SPC has an enhanced risk for much of the dvn cwa as a
deepening upper level trough/stronger cold front arrives. There
is the potential for a derecho or at least bowing segments forming
into a mature bowing squall line, along with possible spin-up
tornadoes (mesovortices). With the strong heating/instability and
mid level winds of 70-75 knots, there is the potential for 70-80+
mph very damaging winds. Highs will be in the 80s to lower 90s,
with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s, mainly south of

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uh-oh we've got a Derecho Watch for Saturday...  

 

From DVN NWS

 

Saturday/Saturday evening: A potent severe weather situation

appears to be shaping up for the afternoon and early evening

hours. SPC has an enhanced risk for much of the dvn cwa as a

deepening upper level trough/stronger cold front arrives. There

is the potential for a derecho or at least bowing segments forming

into a mature bowing squall line, along with possible spin-up

tornadoes (mesovortices). With the strong heating/instability and

mid level winds of 70-75 knots, there is the potential for 70-80+

mph very damaging winds. Highs will be in the 80s to lower 90s,

with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s, mainly south of

06z NAM-3km highlighting the above...could be a nasty night for you guys in IA...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061606/nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_21.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061606/nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_25.png

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I only picked up 0.25" as well.  I'm glad the large hail missed, though.

 

Tom, the NAM maps you posted are showing the Friday evening convection, not the Saturday event DVN is hyping in their discussion.  Most models are keeping the Saturday event south and east of Cedar Rapids.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I only picked up 0.25" as well.  I'm glad the large hail missed, though.

 

Tom, the NAM maps you posted are showing the Friday evening convection, not the Saturday event DVN is hyping in their discussion.  Most models are keeping the Saturday event south and east of Cedar Rapids.

Ah, yes...nice catch...sorry about that...

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Today's HRRR runs are showing this evening's event playing out similarly to last evening's, with strong storms in northeast Iowa and southwest Iowa, with not much in between.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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