NEJeremy Posted June 10, 2017 Report Share Posted June 10, 2017 Here's a site that shows all the reports so far this year. You can see that GA(126), LA(73), MS(63) in the deep south/southeast make up nearly 1/3 of all the tornado reports. Kind of like I figured with the early season severe weather they had.Nebraska has had 5. SD hasn't even had a tornado report this year and only 28 reports total!Illinois has had almost as many reports as KS so far this year.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2017_annual_summary.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted June 11, 2017 Report Share Posted June 11, 2017 Might have an interesting little situation develop in my neck of the woods tomorrow. Looking forward to it, the grass is getting fried with the lack of precip over the last little while. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted June 11, 2017 Report Share Posted June 11, 2017 Enhanced risk of severe weather here today. New mesoscale discussion states a new watch will be issued shortly. Cloud tops on the bow echo out in W MN are approaching 50-55k feet. Gusts up to 70mph possible. If this morning activity gets out of the way quickly enough we have a decent shot at some good redevelopment later today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted June 11, 2017 Report Share Posted June 11, 2017 Enhanced risk of severe weather here today. New mesoscale discussion states a new watch will be issued shortly. Cloud tops on the bow echo out in W MN are approaching 50-55k feet. Gusts up to 70mph possible. If this morning activity gets out of the way quickly enough we have a decent shot at some good redevelopment later today.I was thinking the same thing. These storms are coming in a bit ahead of what the models were hitting at. Looks the the first direct hit to MSP of a large storm in quite a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 11, 2017 Glad to see you guys up north getting in on some storms.  Been a very long time as much of May all the storms were south of your area.  The real warmth/instability never made it up that far north during met Spring. Longer range forecasts look like our seasons first "ring of fire" pattern may set up as a huge ridge blossoms over the Rockies and West. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted June 11, 2017 Report Share Posted June 11, 2017 Here's a pic from my dock when the storm rolled in. Lightning struck a few hundred yards to my right when I was taking the panaramic shot, so thats why the right side of the pic is so much brighter. Picked up an inch of rain in about 20 minutes. Still steady rain now with vivid lightning. Total guess but I'd say the gusts were around 45 mph. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 11, 2017 Here's a pic from my dock when the storm rolled in. Lightning struck a few hundred yards to my right when I was taking the panaramic shot, so thats why the right side of the pic is so much brighter. Picked up an inch of rain in about 20 minutes. Still steady rain now with vivid lightning. Total guess but I'd say the gusts were around 45 mph.The land of 10,000 Lakes! Â Love having a place on the water. Â Great shot! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted June 11, 2017 Report Share Posted June 11, 2017 The land of 10,000 Lakes! Â Love having a place on the water. Â Great shot!Thanks Tom! Lots of photo opportunities living on the water for sure. Â Let's see if the atmosphere can recharge this afternoon and do it all over again. Looking like south of here is in a better spot for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 11, 2017 Report Share Posted June 11, 2017 Maybe some boomers by Tuesday and Wednesday in my neck of the woods. Hopefully, severe t'stms. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted June 12, 2017 Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 I'm currently out in Rapid City SD. It looks like we might get some action tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 I'm currently out in Rapid City SD. It looks like we might get some action tomorrow.Just after dinner time is when the atmosphere looks to ignite! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061206/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_20.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 These lines look like they will produce some long lasting "derecho's" in IA and maybe Wisco... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061206/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_25.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 It's funny, all of a sudden OMA/LNK getting in on some morning storms...hearing reports of very large hail in excess of 1.5" near LNK... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted June 12, 2017 Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 It's funny, all of a sudden OMA/LNK getting in on some morning storms...hearing reports of very large hail in excess of 1.5" near LNK...We got smoked. 4.5" of rain at my house. So unexpected. Didn't get the huge hail but some decent sized stuff came down. Reports of egg sized hail on the southwest side of town. Pretty awesome! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 You're missing some action back home tonight! Dark enough for streetlights to go on - heaviest storms are north of my location but we have some nasty looking clouds and wind just started. I'm currently out in Rapid City SD. It looks like we might get some action tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 This heat wave will certainly dry out the region and I'd imagine the grass will start to turn brown in spots??? X-way medians are already bad and some very open grass is all brown. Drought-like feel to it. Since I just re-landscaped my garden and invested in some upgrades I'm watering every evening during this heatwave. With the electricity for the central a/c and water both coming from city of Marshall's over-priced utility dept, I'm sure I'll hate the bill I get next month! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 X-way medians are already bad and some very open grass is all brown. Drought-like feel to it. Since I just re-landscaped my garden and invested in some upgrades I'm watering every evening during this heatwave. With the electricity for the central a/c and water both coming from city of Marshall's over-priced utility dept, I'm sure I'll hate the bill I get next month! I know whatcha mean....hopefully, mother nature can provide some water. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Some storm action around dinner time in E NE moving east into IA later this evening... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061306/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_19.png  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061306/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_21.png   http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif?1497360955452 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 See my post in the June thd for what I think of mby's chances, but I'd love to get lucky with that marginal stripe across SMI Future-cast says it's possible, but I've had 80% likely in my NWS local and not a drop already once this spring, so zero holding of breath, lol  Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 The MPX office is usually pretty ho hum and rarely shows excitement, which makes this interesting:We`ll start with this afternoon. First, when looking at forecastshear/instability parameters along with forecast soundings fortoday, the first reaction we have been hearing around the officeis wow. The type of environment forecast to be over MN today issomething that we only see maybe a couple of times a decade uphere. 3000-5000 j/kg of MLCAPE, 40-50 kts of deep shear, h85 jetincreasing to between 40 and 50 kts, and effective storm relativehelicity north of the warm front forecast to get up between 300and 600 m2/s2. That warm front shows up well on the 0.5 degreereflectivity from MPX just into the far southern Twin Cities metroarea and by most accounts, it is forecast to get up to or a little north of I-94 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Had an interesting night tonight. We had a gust front/dust front move through around 8:30 tonight. The dust dropped visibility down to a couple hundred feet. Reports show 65-70 mph winds at this time. It was insane! Lots of damage around town including this picture that I took on the east side of town. Here is Hastings write up from the other day. My picture made their page! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Nice pics Gabel! Â Had a severe line of storms roll through around 1am this morning. Hearing reports of gusts of 70mph in the Twin Cities. I believe that. The whole house was shaking. Power was out for about 4 hours. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Had golf ball sized hail and heavy rain in GI yesterday. Some vivid cloud to ground lightning as well. The 1 exciting storm day of the entire season so far! What a tease, it reeled me right back in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Had a nice downpour this morning, which we sorely needed. Â We hadn't had any precip the entire month. Â But it was short lived and nothing else in store. Â We'll see if more storms materialize later this week. Â We could use a couple good 1-2" type storms here. Â 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Chicago people-- I expect pictures coming in soon! Those storms have clocked 74 mph winds and they are rolling right over you guys right now. Looks intense!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Chicago people-- I expect pictures coming in soon! Those storms have clocked 74 mph winds and they are rolling right over you guys right now. Looks intense!!!I saw a video live feed on FB and it was pouring buckets! Crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted June 15, 2017 Report Share Posted June 15, 2017 Guessing winds of 60+ here this afternoon. Many trees 15"diameter and bigger down. Power was out for 3 hours. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 15, 2017 Guessing winds of 60+ here this afternoon. Many trees 15"diameter and bigger down. Power was out for 3 hours.The rolling hills of Madison...I love driving up to Wisco on the 90 and seeing the rolling hills and green lush forests/farmland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 15, 2017 Activity is going to pick up this weekend into next week...get ready for some chasing...  1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted June 15, 2017 Report Share Posted June 15, 2017 Interesting wording coming from the SPC on their Day 3 outlook. It is just a slight risk right now for Eastern Nebraska, Iowa, and Northern Missouri, but towards the end, sounds like they know they're going to increase it. I'm speculating, but from the sounds of this, if it does in fact pan out, someone is going to get an enhanced/moderate risk here in the next couple days: It is possible that activity could consolidate and grow further upscale into one large forward (eastward/southeastward) propagating convective system capable of producing one or more broad swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts before convection weakens by late Saturday night. Correspondingly, severe probabilities may be increased considerably further in subsequent outlooks closer to the event. However, at this time, the forecast remains complicated by potential convective development in the preceding days, which remains unclear, and could provide negative feedback with regard to convective potential by Saturday.   Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 15, 2017 SPC latest update...    Friday looks prime for IA... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 uh-oh we've got a Derecho Watch for Saturday... Â Â From DVN NWSÂ Saturday/Saturday evening: A potent severe weather situationappears to be shaping up for the afternoon and early eveninghours. SPC has an enhanced risk for much of the dvn cwa as adeepening upper level trough/stronger cold front arrives. Thereis the potential for a derecho or at least bowing segments forminginto a mature bowing squall line, along with possible spin-uptornadoes (mesovortices). With the strong heating/instability andmid level winds of 70-75 knots, there is the potential for 70-80+mph very damaging winds. Highs will be in the 80s to lower 90s,with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s, mainly south of Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 uh-oh we've got a Derecho Watch for Saturday...   From DVN NWS Saturday/Saturday evening: A potent severe weather situationappears to be shaping up for the afternoon and early eveninghours. SPC has an enhanced risk for much of the dvn cwa as adeepening upper level trough/stronger cold front arrives. Thereis the potential for a derecho or at least bowing segments forminginto a mature bowing squall line, along with possible spin-uptornadoes (mesovortices). With the strong heating/instability andmid level winds of 70-75 knots, there is the potential for 70-80+mph very damaging winds. Highs will be in the 80s to lower 90s,with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s, mainly south of06z NAM-3km highlighting the above...could be a nasty night for you guys in IA... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061606/nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_21.png   http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061606/nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_25.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 I could use the rain after last night's incredibly unlucky round of storms for me. Â Areas surrounding me got hit pretty hard, I ended up with a 1/4" is all. Â I could use a solid 1-2" soaker. Â 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 I only picked up 0.25" as well.  I'm glad the large hail missed, though. Tom, the NAM maps you posted are showing the Friday evening convection, not the Saturday event DVN is hyping in their discussion.  Most models are keeping the Saturday event south and east of Cedar Rapids. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"   '21-22: 27.1"   '20-21: 52.5"   '19-20: 36.2"    '18-19: 50.2"    '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 I only picked up 0.25" as well.  I'm glad the large hail missed, though. Tom, the NAM maps you posted are showing the Friday evening convection, not the Saturday event DVN is hyping in their discussion.  Most models are keeping the Saturday event south and east of Cedar Rapids.Ah, yes...nice catch...sorry about that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Today's HRRR runs are showing this evening's event playing out similarly to last evening's, with strong storms in northeast Iowa and southwest Iowa, with not much in between. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Â Â Â '21-22: 27.1"Â Â Â '20-21: 52.5"Â Â Â '19-20: 36.2"Â Â Â Â '18-19: 50.2"Â Â Â Â '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Watch likely for Eastern NE  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1055.html  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1055.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Watch likely for Eastern NE  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1055.html  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1055.gif  HRRR drills us here in LNK run after run. Going to be an interesting night, looks like these suckers could be dropping some monster hail around here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted June 16, 2017 Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Now a watch also likely for N IA & S MN.  Hopefully this area sags southeast tonight after they fire up.  A nice bow echo with heavy rain would be great.  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1057.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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