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2017 Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread


Tom

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Storms look like they will pass to my north again. So many near misses here. I could really use a couple inches.

 

All week it appeared southeast Iowa would be the big winner from this event.  The WPC consistently had a band of 3-5 inches of rain between Cedar Rapids and Burlington.  The inverse happened.  The heaviest has fallen in northern Iowa and down in Missouri.  Southeast Iowa has barely received any rain.  It's very difficult to forecast these highly convective events.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wow! Where the hell did that come from?! Almost all of the Omaha metro just got nailed with a huge hailstorm! Had a line of storms that were warned northwest of town, but weakened as they were approaching. Then just as the first cell moved into northwest Omaha, it exploded in strength. We had ping pong to golf ball sized hail at my house and then about 30-45 seconds of 60 mph winds. Just east of here and right through the heart of town it grew to tennis to baseball sized hail! Then it moved into Council Bluffs.

A second storm formed just west of town and it also dropped hail up to tennis ball sized as it moved through south Omaha and suburbs. This is going to be a very expensive storm!

The smaller hail in the hand is the hail at my house, and the other pic is the hail at my friend's house.

 

I've got more to tell about my chasing experiences the last couple of days but will save that for probably tomorrow.

 

19575332_10209727149444361_1711324056465335486_o.jpg19598593_10154921514294403_4659119252122373482_n.jpg

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@ NEJeremy

 

I'm guessing a ton of cars were dimpled (or worse) around that area. My garage holds only one of my 2 rides, so I hope to never see such a surprise hail storm - yikes! Hope you didn't have costly damage. Congrats if you're into the severe stuff, it seems to be making up for your lackluster winters. I'd even donate some SMI severe if we had any that is.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Special Weather Statement they said,

 

 

Nickle Sized Hail they said,

 

 

 

Your car will probably be fine they said (yeah uhh, no. My car looks like a golf ball now)

 

 

 

There were a lot more than these 2 by the way, and I waited about 30 minutes to go out and grab these monstrosities. Can't say I've ever heard a sound as loud as baseball sized hailstones pelting your windshield.

hail.JPG

hail2.JPG

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Boy, Omaha and Lincoln have really taken a beating the last week or two, with each receiving severe wind and hail, as well as very heavy rain.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Special Weather Statement they said,

 

 

Nickle Sized Hail they said,

 

 

 

Your car will probably be fine they said (yeah uhh, no. My car looks like a golf ball now)

D**n bro!  That's gonna leave a "mark"...I think the wx God's have been listening to your prayers of getting some severe wx.  Maybe a bit too much!

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d**n bro!  That's gonna leave a "mark"...I think the wx God's have been listening to your prayers of getting some severe wx.  Maybe a bit too much!

Dude right? This was ridiculous. Some of these stones were bouncing like 15 feet in the air after impact. It was incredible.

 

 

Here's a picture I got of the storm coming in:

strm1.JPG

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S MI may get some sort of watch issued soon...

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1197.gif

Lets hope so....but, it just aint happening. They usually fizzle out. I'll probably end up with a rainshower at best. :unsure:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Dude right? This was ridiculous. Some of these stones were bouncing like 15 feet in the air after impact. It was incredible.

 

 

Here's a picture I got of the storm coming in:

Nice!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Wow! Where the hell did that come from?! Almost all of the Omaha metro just got nailed with a huge hailstorm! Had a line of storms that were warned northwest of town, but weakened as they were approaching. Then just as the first cell moved into northwest Omaha, it exploded in strength. We had ping pong to golf ball sized hail at my house and then about 30-45 seconds of 60 mph winds. Just east of here and right through the heart of town it grew to tennis to baseball sized hail! Then it moved into Council Bluffs.

A second storm formed just west of town and it also dropped hail up to tennis ball sized as it moved through south Omaha and suburbs. This is going to be a very expensive storm!

The smaller hail in the hand is the hail at my house, and the other pic is the hail at my friend's house.

 

I've got more to tell about my chasing experiences the last couple of days but will save that for probably tomorrow.

 

attachicon.gif19575332_10209727149444361_1711324056465335486_o.jpgattachicon.gif19598593_10154921514294403_4659119252122373482_n.jpg

Dang....that is some big hailstones ya got there.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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S MI may get some sort of watch issued soon...

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1197.gif

Lets hope so....but, it just aint happening. They usually fizzle out. I'll probably end up with a rainshower at best. :unsure:

 

 What he said!  LOL @ my 2 lightning strikes and ONE, yes ONE decent rumble of thunder from a multi-day severe wx threat. Scored the much desired rain though, so all was not lost over the past two days, but this was a mega-bust any way you slice it! This streak of severe wx fails is just about like Chicago (and SWMI's) total lack of synoptic snowstorms this past winter. If you look at the "named storms" track map, we officially had one (in December), and that turned into a sloppy mix as cold air was marginal. :huh: :rolleyes:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I wanted to share my chasing experiences from 6/28-29. Had a couple of disappointing chases, but any day chasing is better than a day at work!

Wed 6/28- watching this day, it was consistently looking like eastern Iowa would be the place to go. The models did show southwest/south central as a possibility but STP parameters were really maxed in eastern Iowa(where there were tornadoes). My chase partner and I headed east with an initial target of eastern Iowa and arrived in Des Moines about 1 and stopped for a bite to eat. I noticed southwest Iowa was really looking good and other chasers were talking about that target, so back southwest we headed. Here we made one mistake that probably cost us later. We could have backtracked a few miles and hopped on I-35 which would have been quicker of course, but instead we chose the highway that went from Altoona(where we ate) down to Osceola thinking we had plenty of time to get into position. This definitely cost us time.

Storms formed near the NE/IA border and one rapidly became severe and then tornadic. As we raced back west from Osceola, it sucked to see the confirmed reports near Sidney and Shenandoah as we were still about 30 minutes away. Here's where we made one other "fatal" decision. A new cell was rapidly forming very near us and was starting to look good visually. We had the conversation of staying with that one versus trying to get down to the other storm, but since the first one was already tornado confirmed we drove on. This second storm went on to produce either the Corning or Stuart tornado, that we most certainly would have seen.

There was one more confirmed tornado report with the first storm about 5 minutes before we made it to the storm, but when we got into view, all that was left was impressive structure but no tornado.

Thereafter we hopped on a storm to the southeast that produced a funnel 1/2 way to the ground and was headed to Bedford Iowa. We had to wind our way through backwoods Missouri roads just across the border so were behind the storm. There was a confirmed tornado south of Bedford that we couldn't see through the rain, but at one point had to stop and get out of the car to observe the insane motion in the skies above us as we were only a couple of miles behind it to the west and were getting blasted by the RFD.

Thereafter we made our back into Missouri and saw a mean HP cell that was tornado warned but didn't see anything. We then made our way home thinking about the few minutes and decisions we made that cost us.

The next day, morning crapvection really minimized what looked to be a big day in southeast Nebraska so we went to northeast Nebraska near Sioux City.

We were right on the monster storm that formed west of S. City from the time it was a small green blip on the radar. It didn't look like it was in a real great environment for tornado chances though and we were going to head up towards Yankton which looked to be in a better area on the mesoanalysis.

However, a tornado warning was put out for the S. City storm and since we were right on it we stayed with it. It produced 4" hail in Sioux City and would produce some brief, very slowly or even non rotating wall clouds. The storm slowly moved into Iowa. We stayed with it until the tornado warning was dropped about 20-30 miles southeast of S. City.

At this point we looked back to the northwest towards Yankton and saw there was a severe warned cell west of town that appeared to be in a better environment so we tried to race back that way. Sure enough a confirmed tornado report came out as we were still about 30 miles away. South Dakota is so flat in this area that we could see a long ways to the west and when were about 20 miles away on I-29 we could see the base of the storm, the wall cloud, and the tornado underneath!

The tornado lasted a few more minutes and lifted though as we were now racing west towards Vermillion. Just east of Vermillion looking west we could see it make another attempt with a bowl funnel underneath and a large dust swirl being kicked up. However that soon fell apart as we were only 6-8 miles away and once were finally in position, it was rapidly dying. Another close miss!

We then headed home and on the way I got pulled over for doing 75 in a 60. Honestly I didn't even know I was going that fast as my chase partner and I were discussing what just happened. However, the cop was VERY nice and dropped the ticket to a 65 in a 60.

The last excitement of the day ended with the large hailstorm that moved through town about 45 minutes after I got home.

Sorry so long! I feel it's "therapeutic" for me to tell my stories especially on frustrating misses. :P  :D

I haven't had a chance to edit any pics yet, but will have something in the coming days.

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 What he said!  LOL @ my 2 lightning strikes and ONE, yes ONE decent rumble of thunder from a multi-day severe wx threat. Scored the much desired rain though, so all was not lost over the past two days, but this was a mega-bust any way you slice it! This streak of severe wx fails is just about like Chicago (and SWMI's) total lack of synoptic snowstorms this past winter. If you look at the "named storms" track map, we officially had one (in December), and that turned into a sloppy mix as cold air was marginal. :huh: :rolleyes:

Nightmare Winter! :wacko: :rolleyes:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Cant even remember when the last time I had a thunderstorm was. Its been a warm and dry summer thus far. Not too hot or humid, bearable to say the least.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Maybe some boomers on Friday! Lets hope so...we need to get some action here in SEMI. It has been abnormally dry so far. :blink:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Fridays thunderstorms were a doozy. Torrential needed rainfall with ova 2inches IMBY. :D :o

 

Next potential arrives next week.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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`The power is now back on here at my house. There are a lot of trees down in the Grand Rapids area and that brought down a lot of power lines. The damage is kind of hit and miss with the worst on the south side of town. In my area not a lot of whole trees down just many large branches. But on the south side whole trees are down either broken in half or uprooted. There were reports of wind gust of maybe up to 100 MPH. I only had winds of 35 MPH so that too was hit and miss. And here I recorded .073” of rain.

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Here is the write up from the NWS office on Fridays AM storms

Damage and Wind Summary

Numerous trees and power lines fell between 2:45 and 4:45 AM Friday, July 7, in a 100-mile long and 30-mile wide swath from Grand Haven to northwest of Jackson. Evidence from damage patterns, storm evolution, and radar data point toward a straight-line wind event, with mainly EF-0 level wind speeds (up to 85 mph).

Wind Speeds:

  • Grand Haven (Ottawa County): Hard-hit by very strong winds coming off Lake Michigan. A man was killed when a large tree fell through his house in Grand Haven. A wind gust of 91 mph was recorded on the north Grand Haven breakwater. An unverified gust of at least 88 mph and possibly as high as 103 mph was recorded by a home weather station in the South Highland area, north of Rosy Mound. Wind gusts can be locally stronger over the near-frictionless surface of Lake Michigan and where winds are channeled through gaps in the dunes.
  • Ottawa and Kent Counties: Based on damage, radar data, and anemometer readings, wind gusts likely ranged between 60 and 80 mph across much of the area. A gust to 88 mph was recorded on a rooftop at Grand Valley State University in Allendale (wind speeds can be higher well above the ground). Gerald R. Ford International Airport recorded a wind gust of 59 mph, and a gust to 60 mph was recorded at Memorial Field in East Grand Rapids.
  • Barry and Eaton Counties, (Hastings, Charlotte, and surrounding areas): Wind speeds likely ranged between 50 and 70 mph across a majority of the counties, but a couple isolated swaths of wind over 70 mph may have occurred. Wind speeds gradually diminished below severe levels (less than 60 mph) in Calhoun, Ingham, and Jackson counties, but some tree damage and power outages did occur in those areas.
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12z High Rez NAM shifted the MCS a bit more east and now has a beeline towards S WI/N IL overnight...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017070912/nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_18.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017070912/nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_20.png

 

 

 

S MI may get clipped around 7:00am...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017070912/nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_24.png

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These storms are going to produce prolific downpours...just by looking at the qpf totals the model is spitting out...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017070912/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

 

 

 

What a muggy day tomorrow...DP's in the upper 70's!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017070912/nam3km_Td2m_ncus_32.png

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Wow, latest HRRR showing a Midnight Thrasher of a MCS hitting IA/WI and then into IL...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017070914/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_15.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017070914/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_18.png

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Here is the write up from the NWS office on Fridays AM storms

Damage and Wind Summary

Numerous trees and power lines fell between 2:45 and 4:45 AM Friday, July 7, in a 100-mile long and 30-mile wide swath from Grand Haven to northwest of Jackson. Evidence from damage patterns, storm evolution, and radar data point toward a straight-line wind event, with mainly EF-0 level wind speeds (up to 85 mph).

Wind Speeds:

  • Grand Haven (Ottawa County): Hard-hit by very strong winds coming off Lake Michigan. A man was killed when a large tree fell through his house in Grand Haven. A wind gust of 91 mph was recorded on the north Grand Haven breakwater. An unverified gust of at least 88 mph and possibly as high as 103 mph was recorded by a home weather station in the South Highland area, north of Rosy Mound. Wind gusts can be locally stronger over the near-frictionless surface of Lake Michigan and where winds are channeled through gaps in the dunes.
  • Ottawa and Kent Counties: Based on damage, radar data, and anemometer readings, wind gusts likely ranged between 60 and 80 mph across much of the area. A gust to 88 mph was recorded on a rooftop at Grand Valley State University in Allendale (wind speeds can be higher well above the ground). Gerald R. Ford International Airport recorded a wind gust of 59 mph, and a gust to 60 mph was recorded at Memorial Field in East Grand Rapids.
  • Barry and Eaton Counties, (Hastings, Charlotte, and surrounding areas): Wind speeds likely ranged between 50 and 70 mph across a majority of the counties, but a couple isolated swaths of wind over 70 mph may have occurred. Wind speeds gradually diminished below severe levels (less than 60 mph) in Calhoun, Ingham, and Jackson counties, but some tree damage and power outages did occur in those areas.

 

 

Not 100% certain, but I don't remember any outlooks calling for possible deadly wx across SWMI. It just shows that expecting the unexpected is the way to roll. The NWS does a good job most times, but they're peeps and no system if fail-proof anyways. GRR's been played by Ma Nature this spring/summer. Every time (3 or 4) that they've called for severe (often in conjunction with the SPC outlooks), it's busted. Then this event (over-night no less) pretty much comes outta nowhere!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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These storms are going to produce prolific downpours...just by looking at the qpf totals the model is spitting out...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017070912/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

 

 

 

What a muggy day tomorrow...DP's in the upper 70's!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017070912/nam3km_Td2m_ncus_32.png

 

NAM 3km was money on this morning's event. Drove through the heaviest deluge in years. 94 westbound was closed right after I passed through. State police were helping with an upside-down car off in the ditch; presumably due to hydro-planing conditions. The median ditch was literally a pond 2 foot deep at one point. Much needed moisture for this region if it spreads the wealth around a little bit.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Some thunderstorms possible today, especially in the afternoon. Some, locally severe. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Not 100% certain, but I don't remember any outlooks calling for possible deadly wx across SWMI. It just shows that expecting the unexpected is the way to roll. The NWS does a good job most times, but they're peeps and no system if fail-proof anyways. GRR's been played by Ma Nature this spring/summer. Every time (3 or 4) that they've called for severe (often in conjunction with the SPC outlooks), it's busted. Then this event (over-night no less) pretty much comes outta nowhere!

 

Just WOW! @ these reports into GRR last Friday early morning. I had no idea it was that bad :o GRR's been majorly trolled by Ma Nature this severe season.

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here we go again. GRR's honking about tomorrow (Wed pm) across the middle of the Mitt. Let's see if they continue to get trolled..

 

 

GRR sounds very enthused 

Wednesday afternoon will be a time for all of us to watch the sky
carefully. It would seem to this forecast the set up for severe
storms it the best I have seen this year for this area. There is
just about all the one would typically look for. The deep layer
shear rises to near 40 knots north of I-96 late in the day, there
is a 35 to 45 knot low level jet across central lower Michigan in
the afternoon, we get into the jet entrance region late in the
day. Since there is a cold front trailing the surface low we have
good surface convergence. There is good 700 to 300 mb QVECT
convergence, the sounding show a "loaded gun" type sounding
during the afternoon too. If that is not enough the the SPC SREF
calibrated probability of severe storms reaches a 13 late in the
day Wednesday, that is the highest number I have seen in Michigan
this entire year. The SREF conditional Severe gets to 40 percent
(which for Michigan is high). The CravenBrooks Significant Severe
gets to 40,000, which is the highest I have seen all year too.
The significant tornado parameter reaches "2" near route 10 by
late in the afternoon. I could go on but by now you should get the
picture. I see the threat of very heavy rain, very strong and
possibly damaging winds, and tornadoes are not out of the
question Wed afternoon into the early evening.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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From SPC's d2 write-up. Could this be SMI's time to catch-up? Will they upgrade to Enhanced?? :unsure:

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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From SPC's d2 write-up. Could this be SMI's time to catch-up? Will they upgrade to Enhanced?? :unsure:

 

attachicon.gif20170711 SPC d2 outlook.PNG

That would be a shocker!!! :o :rolleyes:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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60,000 ft+ cloud tops with these storms hitting my back yard...

 

DEgbUz7XsAI_pME.jpg

 

Can confirm it's like night here at noon!! :o

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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/\ UGGH! to flooding :(

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Even though there are Flood Watches hoisted for N IL, I have my doubts that any torrential rains form over the areas that got socked last night.  It looks like last nights storms rang out all the instability for tonight's event.  High rez models backing off any torrential rain situation.  Maybe the farther south you go the better chances you have.

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