Hawkeye Posted June 30, 2017 Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 Storms look like they will pass to my north again. So many near misses here. I could really use a couple inches. All week it appeared southeast Iowa would be the big winner from this event. The WPC consistently had a band of 3-5 inches of rain between Cedar Rapids and Burlington. The inverse happened. The heaviest has fallen in northern Iowa and down in Missouri. Southeast Iowa has barely received any rain. It's very difficult to forecast these highly convective events. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted June 30, 2017 Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 Wow! Where the hell did that come from?! Almost all of the Omaha metro just got nailed with a huge hailstorm! Had a line of storms that were warned northwest of town, but weakened as they were approaching. Then just as the first cell moved into northwest Omaha, it exploded in strength. We had ping pong to golf ball sized hail at my house and then about 30-45 seconds of 60 mph winds. Just east of here and right through the heart of town it grew to tennis to baseball sized hail! Then it moved into Council Bluffs.A second storm formed just west of town and it also dropped hail up to tennis ball sized as it moved through south Omaha and suburbs. This is going to be a very expensive storm!The smaller hail in the hand is the hail at my house, and the other pic is the hail at my friend's house. I've got more to tell about my chasing experiences the last couple of days but will save that for probably tomorrow. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 30, 2017 Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 @ NEJeremy I'm guessing a ton of cars were dimpled (or worse) around that area. My garage holds only one of my 2 rides, so I hope to never see such a surprise hail storm - yikes! Hope you didn't have costly damage. Congrats if you're into the severe stuff, it seems to be making up for your lackluster winters. I'd even donate some SMI severe if we had any that is. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted June 30, 2017 Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 Special Weather Statement they said, Nickle Sized Hail they said, Your car will probably be fine they said (yeah uhh, no. My car looks like a golf ball now) There were a lot more than these 2 by the way, and I waited about 30 minutes to go out and grab these monstrosities. Can't say I've ever heard a sound as loud as baseball sized hailstones pelting your windshield. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 30, 2017 Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 Boy, Omaha and Lincoln have really taken a beating the last week or two, with each receiving severe wind and hail, as well as very heavy rain. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 Special Weather Statement they said, Nickle Sized Hail they said, Your car will probably be fine they said (yeah uhh, no. My car looks like a golf ball now)D**n bro! That's gonna leave a "mark"...I think the wx God's have been listening to your prayers of getting some severe wx. Maybe a bit too much! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted June 30, 2017 Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 d**n bro! That's gonna leave a "mark"...I think the wx God's have been listening to your prayers of getting some severe wx. Maybe a bit too much!Dude right? This was ridiculous. Some of these stones were bouncing like 15 feet in the air after impact. It was incredible. Here's a picture I got of the storm coming in: 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 S MI may get some sort of watch issued soon... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1197.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 30, 2017 Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 S MI may get some sort of watch issued soon... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1197.gifLets hope so....but, it just aint happening. They usually fizzle out. I'll probably end up with a rainshower at best. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 30, 2017 Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 Dude right? This was ridiculous. Some of these stones were bouncing like 15 feet in the air after impact. It was incredible. Here's a picture I got of the storm coming in:Nice! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 30, 2017 Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 Wow! Where the hell did that come from?! Almost all of the Omaha metro just got nailed with a huge hailstorm! Had a line of storms that were warned northwest of town, but weakened as they were approaching. Then just as the first cell moved into northwest Omaha, it exploded in strength. We had ping pong to golf ball sized hail at my house and then about 30-45 seconds of 60 mph winds. Just east of here and right through the heart of town it grew to tennis to baseball sized hail! Then it moved into Council Bluffs.A second storm formed just west of town and it also dropped hail up to tennis ball sized as it moved through south Omaha and suburbs. This is going to be a very expensive storm!The smaller hail in the hand is the hail at my house, and the other pic is the hail at my friend's house. I've got more to tell about my chasing experiences the last couple of days but will save that for probably tomorrow. 19575332_10209727149444361_1711324056465335486_o.jpg19598593_10154921514294403_4659119252122373482_n.jpgDang....that is some big hailstones ya got there. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 S MI may get some sort of watch issued soon... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1197.gifLets hope so....but, it just aint happening. They usually fizzle out. I'll probably end up with a rainshower at best. What he said! LOL @ my 2 lightning strikes and ONE, yes ONE decent rumble of thunder from a multi-day severe wx threat. Scored the much desired rain though, so all was not lost over the past two days, but this was a mega-bust any way you slice it! This streak of severe wx fails is just about like Chicago (and SWMI's) total lack of synoptic snowstorms this past winter. If you look at the "named storms" track map, we officially had one (in December), and that turned into a sloppy mix as cold air was marginal. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 I wanted to share my chasing experiences from 6/28-29. Had a couple of disappointing chases, but any day chasing is better than a day at work!Wed 6/28- watching this day, it was consistently looking like eastern Iowa would be the place to go. The models did show southwest/south central as a possibility but STP parameters were really maxed in eastern Iowa(where there were tornadoes). My chase partner and I headed east with an initial target of eastern Iowa and arrived in Des Moines about 1 and stopped for a bite to eat. I noticed southwest Iowa was really looking good and other chasers were talking about that target, so back southwest we headed. Here we made one mistake that probably cost us later. We could have backtracked a few miles and hopped on I-35 which would have been quicker of course, but instead we chose the highway that went from Altoona(where we ate) down to Osceola thinking we had plenty of time to get into position. This definitely cost us time.Storms formed near the NE/IA border and one rapidly became severe and then tornadic. As we raced back west from Osceola, it sucked to see the confirmed reports near Sidney and Shenandoah as we were still about 30 minutes away. Here's where we made one other "fatal" decision. A new cell was rapidly forming very near us and was starting to look good visually. We had the conversation of staying with that one versus trying to get down to the other storm, but since the first one was already tornado confirmed we drove on. This second storm went on to produce either the Corning or Stuart tornado, that we most certainly would have seen.There was one more confirmed tornado report with the first storm about 5 minutes before we made it to the storm, but when we got into view, all that was left was impressive structure but no tornado.Thereafter we hopped on a storm to the southeast that produced a funnel 1/2 way to the ground and was headed to Bedford Iowa. We had to wind our way through backwoods Missouri roads just across the border so were behind the storm. There was a confirmed tornado south of Bedford that we couldn't see through the rain, but at one point had to stop and get out of the car to observe the insane motion in the skies above us as we were only a couple of miles behind it to the west and were getting blasted by the RFD.Thereafter we made our back into Missouri and saw a mean HP cell that was tornado warned but didn't see anything. We then made our way home thinking about the few minutes and decisions we made that cost us.The next day, morning crapvection really minimized what looked to be a big day in southeast Nebraska so we went to northeast Nebraska near Sioux City.We were right on the monster storm that formed west of S. City from the time it was a small green blip on the radar. It didn't look like it was in a real great environment for tornado chances though and we were going to head up towards Yankton which looked to be in a better area on the mesoanalysis.However, a tornado warning was put out for the S. City storm and since we were right on it we stayed with it. It produced 4" hail in Sioux City and would produce some brief, very slowly or even non rotating wall clouds. The storm slowly moved into Iowa. We stayed with it until the tornado warning was dropped about 20-30 miles southeast of S. City.At this point we looked back to the northwest towards Yankton and saw there was a severe warned cell west of town that appeared to be in a better environment so we tried to race back that way. Sure enough a confirmed tornado report came out as we were still about 30 miles away. South Dakota is so flat in this area that we could see a long ways to the west and when were about 20 miles away on I-29 we could see the base of the storm, the wall cloud, and the tornado underneath!The tornado lasted a few more minutes and lifted though as we were now racing west towards Vermillion. Just east of Vermillion looking west we could see it make another attempt with a bowl funnel underneath and a large dust swirl being kicked up. However that soon fell apart as we were only 6-8 miles away and once were finally in position, it was rapidly dying. Another close miss!We then headed home and on the way I got pulled over for doing 75 in a 60. Honestly I didn't even know I was going that fast as my chase partner and I were discussing what just happened. However, the cop was VERY nice and dropped the ticket to a 65 in a 60.The last excitement of the day ended with the large hailstorm that moved through town about 45 minutes after I got home.Sorry so long! I feel it's "therapeutic" for me to tell my stories especially on frustrating misses. I haven't had a chance to edit any pics yet, but will have something in the coming days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 What he said! LOL @ my 2 lightning strikes and ONE, yes ONE decent rumble of thunder from a multi-day severe wx threat. Scored the much desired rain though, so all was not lost over the past two days, but this was a mega-bust any way you slice it! This streak of severe wx fails is just about like Chicago (and SWMI's) total lack of synoptic snowstorms this past winter. If you look at the "named storms" track map, we officially had one (in December), and that turned into a sloppy mix as cold air was marginal. Nightmare Winter! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 4, 2017 Report Share Posted July 4, 2017 Cant even remember when the last time I had a thunderstorm was. Its been a warm and dry summer thus far. Not too hot or humid, bearable to say the least. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted July 5, 2017 Report Share Posted July 5, 2017 some severe chances tomorrow especially for Wisconsin. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif?1499262031877 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 6, 2017 Report Share Posted July 6, 2017 Maybe some boomers on Friday! Lets hope so...we need to get some action here in SEMI. It has been abnormally dry so far. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 Fridays thunderstorms were a doozy. Torrential needed rainfall with ova 2inches IMBY. Next potential arrives next week. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 "Ring of Fire" pattern looks to ignite starting late Sunday into Monday. SPC just issued this outlook... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1499539377079 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 `The power is now back on here at my house. There are a lot of trees down in the Grand Rapids area and that brought down a lot of power lines. The damage is kind of hit and miss with the worst on the south side of town. In my area not a lot of whole trees down just many large branches. But on the south side whole trees are down either broken in half or uprooted. There were reports of wind gust of maybe up to 100 MPH. I only had winds of 35 MPH so that too was hit and miss. And here I recorded .073” of rain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted July 8, 2017 Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 Here is the write up from the NWS office on Fridays AM storms Damage and Wind SummaryNumerous trees and power lines fell between 2:45 and 4:45 AM Friday, July 7, in a 100-mile long and 30-mile wide swath from Grand Haven to northwest of Jackson. Evidence from damage patterns, storm evolution, and radar data point toward a straight-line wind event, with mainly EF-0 level wind speeds (up to 85 mph).Wind Speeds:Grand Haven (Ottawa County): Hard-hit by very strong winds coming off Lake Michigan. A man was killed when a large tree fell through his house in Grand Haven. A wind gust of 91 mph was recorded on the north Grand Haven breakwater. An unverified gust of at least 88 mph and possibly as high as 103 mph was recorded by a home weather station in the South Highland area, north of Rosy Mound. Wind gusts can be locally stronger over the near-frictionless surface of Lake Michigan and where winds are channeled through gaps in the dunes.Ottawa and Kent Counties: Based on damage, radar data, and anemometer readings, wind gusts likely ranged between 60 and 80 mph across much of the area. A gust to 88 mph was recorded on a rooftop at Grand Valley State University in Allendale (wind speeds can be higher well above the ground). Gerald R. Ford International Airport recorded a wind gust of 59 mph, and a gust to 60 mph was recorded at Memorial Field in East Grand Rapids.Barry and Eaton Counties, (Hastings, Charlotte, and surrounding areas): Wind speeds likely ranged between 50 and 70 mph across a majority of the counties, but a couple isolated swaths of wind over 70 mph may have occurred. Wind speeds gradually diminished below severe levels (less than 60 mph) in Calhoun, Ingham, and Jackson counties, but some tree damage and power outages did occur in those areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 8, 2017 High Rez NAM showing a strong MCS around rush hour Mon am for NE/E IA and W IL...similar to the GFS...looking interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 9, 2017 12z High Rez NAM shifted the MCS a bit more east and now has a beeline towards S WI/N IL overnight... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017070912/nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_18.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017070912/nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_20.png S MI may get clipped around 7:00am... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017070912/nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 9, 2017 These storms are going to produce prolific downpours...just by looking at the qpf totals the model is spitting out... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017070912/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png What a muggy day tomorrow...DP's in the upper 70's! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017070912/nam3km_Td2m_ncus_32.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 9, 2017 Wow, latest HRRR showing a Midnight Thrasher of a MCS hitting IA/WI and then into IL... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017070914/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_15.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017070914/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 9, 2017 Had a feeling they would upgrade...Enhanced Risk for portions of SE MN/E IA/W IL/SW WI... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 10, 2017 Report Share Posted July 10, 2017 Here is the write up from the NWS office on Fridays AM stormsDamage and Wind SummaryNumerous trees and power lines fell between 2:45 and 4:45 AM Friday, July 7, in a 100-mile long and 30-mile wide swath from Grand Haven to northwest of Jackson. Evidence from damage patterns, storm evolution, and radar data point toward a straight-line wind event, with mainly EF-0 level wind speeds (up to 85 mph).Wind Speeds:Grand Haven (Ottawa County): Hard-hit by very strong winds coming off Lake Michigan. A man was killed when a large tree fell through his house in Grand Haven. A wind gust of 91 mph was recorded on the north Grand Haven breakwater. An unverified gust of at least 88 mph and possibly as high as 103 mph was recorded by a home weather station in the South Highland area, north of Rosy Mound. Wind gusts can be locally stronger over the near-frictionless surface of Lake Michigan and where winds are channeled through gaps in the dunes.Ottawa and Kent Counties: Based on damage, radar data, and anemometer readings, wind gusts likely ranged between 60 and 80 mph across much of the area. A gust to 88 mph was recorded on a rooftop at Grand Valley State University in Allendale (wind speeds can be higher well above the ground). Gerald R. Ford International Airport recorded a wind gust of 59 mph, and a gust to 60 mph was recorded at Memorial Field in East Grand Rapids.Barry and Eaton Counties, (Hastings, Charlotte, and surrounding areas): Wind speeds likely ranged between 50 and 70 mph across a majority of the counties, but a couple isolated swaths of wind over 70 mph may have occurred. Wind speeds gradually diminished below severe levels (less than 60 mph) in Calhoun, Ingham, and Jackson counties, but some tree damage and power outages did occur in those areas. Not 100% certain, but I don't remember any outlooks calling for possible deadly wx across SWMI. It just shows that expecting the unexpected is the way to roll. The NWS does a good job most times, but they're peeps and no system if fail-proof anyways. GRR's been played by Ma Nature this spring/summer. Every time (3 or 4) that they've called for severe (often in conjunction with the SPC outlooks), it's busted. Then this event (over-night no less) pretty much comes outta nowhere! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 10, 2017 Report Share Posted July 10, 2017 These storms are going to produce prolific downpours...just by looking at the qpf totals the model is spitting out... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017070912/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png What a muggy day tomorrow...DP's in the upper 70's! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017070912/nam3km_Td2m_ncus_32.png NAM 3km was money on this morning's event. Drove through the heaviest deluge in years. 94 westbound was closed right after I passed through. State police were helping with an upside-down car off in the ditch; presumably due to hydro-planing conditions. The median ditch was literally a pond 2 foot deep at one point. Much needed moisture for this region if it spreads the wealth around a little bit. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 10, 2017 Report Share Posted July 10, 2017 Some thunderstorms possible today, especially in the afternoon. Some, locally severe. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 10, 2017 Report Share Posted July 10, 2017 Not 100% certain, but I don't remember any outlooks calling for possible deadly wx across SWMI. It just shows that expecting the unexpected is the way to roll. The NWS does a good job most times, but they're peeps and no system if fail-proof anyways. GRR's been played by Ma Nature this spring/summer. Every time (3 or 4) that they've called for severe (often in conjunction with the SPC outlooks), it's busted. Then this event (over-night no less) pretty much comes outta nowhere! Just WOW! @ these reports into GRR last Friday early morning. I had no idea it was that bad GRR's been majorly trolled by Ma Nature this severe season. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted July 10, 2017 Report Share Posted July 10, 2017 Just WOW! @ these reports into GRR last Friday early morning. I had no idea it was that bad GRR's been majorly trolled by Ma Nature this severe season. 20170707 GRR Severe T-storm reports.PNGholy hell. That is unreal, those storms must've been incredible. Wow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 11, 2017 Report Share Posted July 11, 2017 Here we go again. GRR's honking about tomorrow (Wed pm) across the middle of the Mitt. Let's see if they continue to get trolled.. GRR sounds very enthused Wednesday afternoon will be a time for all of us to watch the skycarefully. It would seem to this forecast the set up for severestorms it the best I have seen this year for this area. There isjust about all the one would typically look for. The deep layershear rises to near 40 knots north of I-96 late in the day, thereis a 35 to 45 knot low level jet across central lower Michigan inthe afternoon, we get into the jet entrance region late in theday. Since there is a cold front trailing the surface low we havegood surface convergence. There is good 700 to 300 mb QVECTconvergence, the sounding show a "loaded gun" type soundingduring the afternoon too. If that is not enough the the SPC SREFcalibrated probability of severe storms reaches a 13 late in theday Wednesday, that is the highest number I have seen in Michiganthis entire year. The SREF conditional Severe gets to 40 percent(which for Michigan is high). The CravenBrooks Significant Severegets to 40,000, which is the highest I have seen all year too.The significant tornado parameter reaches "2" near route 10 bylate in the afternoon. I could go on but by now you should get thepicture. I see the threat of very heavy rain, very strong andpossibly damaging winds, and tornadoes are not out of thequestion Wed afternoon into the early evening. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 11, 2017 Report Share Posted July 11, 2017 From SPC's d2 write-up. Could this be SMI's time to catch-up? Will they upgrade to Enhanced?? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 From SPC's d2 write-up. Could this be SMI's time to catch-up? Will they upgrade to Enhanced?? 20170711 SPC d2 outlook.PNGThat would be a shocker!!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 60,000 ft+ cloud tops with these storms hitting my back yard... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 60,000 ft+ cloud tops with these storms hitting my back yard... Can confirm it's like night here at noon!! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 It's going to be a busy day tracking storms and more flooding potential in the Midwest... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 /\ UGGH! to flooding Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 Even though there are Flood Watches hoisted for N IL, I have my doubts that any torrential rains form over the areas that got socked last night. It looks like last nights storms rang out all the instability for tonight's event. High rez models backing off any torrential rain situation. Maybe the farther south you go the better chances you have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 IA Folks need to look out for heavy rains... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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