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2017 Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread


Tom

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HRRR has a MASSIVE supercell developing over LNK around rush hour. The hail core on that thing would rival what we saw last year with the infamous rainbow lightning storm that dropped softball sized hail throughout the city. NAM is less aggressive and shows more action in Iowa. This is a good day for chasing though, be sure to take pics Jeremy!!!

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Every single short range model is making seem like the primary severe threat is here and not Iowa, where they are saying the Enhanced Risk will bust.

 

I noticed this as well.  Everyone is talking up the severe chance in Iowa, but the HRRR and 3k NAM show nothing developing in much of the "enhanced" area in central/eastern Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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SPC update has shifted the enhanced area west out of eastern Iowa.

 

Not surprising. The main LP is further west it looks like. HRRR continuing to show some monster development out here. Thinking OMA/LNK are in a prime spot for some big time storms.

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HRRR has a MASSIVE supercell developing over LNK around rush hour. The hail core on that thing would rival what we saw last year with the infamous rainbow lightning storm that dropped softball sized hail throughout the city. NAM is less aggressive and shows more action in Iowa. This is a good day for chasing though, be sure to take pics Jeremy!!!

 

Got any links to videos of that storm?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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DVN has a new update stating what we're seeing on the models.  They have low confidence regarding storm formation over in this area.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Recent runs of the HRRR have become much more enthusiastic about a good line of storms making it into eastern Iowa late this evening.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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that cell looks kinda meh TBH

It was for us on the North side of town, my house supposedly got some golf ball sized hail in the yard according to my roommates. I'm gunna head north in hopes Omaha gets something, looks like the bulk of it is south though. Surprised none of these have had any spinups yet.

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#LincolnDome looks like it's gonna work in full force. If we're lucky, maybe things will keep developing to our SW and work NE.

Hey! I was wrong!  :D Got some nice sized hail here. Glad things filled in before they got here.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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It was for us on the North side of town, my house supposedly got some golf ball sized hail in the yard according to my roommates. I'm gunna head north in hopes Omaha gets something, looks like the bulk of it is south though. Surprised none of these have had any spinups yet.

I remember driving through LNK last November and I'm trying to envision what it looks like out there right now with those nasty storms.  To see the bubbling cloud tops at a distance with all that flat land is a sight to see I'm sure.

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I remember driving through LNK last November and I'm trying to envision what it looks like out there right now with those nasty storms.  To see the bubbling cloud tops at a distance with all that flat land is a sight to see I'm sure.

I live in a highrise with a view to the West. I can tell you that is 100% true, especially when shelf clouds roll in. Sunsets are also quite pleasant.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I'm already home. What a waste of a decent setup. Here's why none of the storms dropped tornadoes. They were all on or slightly behind the pneumonia cold front that blasted through. I went to Lincoln and then drifted north to be closer to the warm front. Watched the storms form from Ceresco to southwest of Lincoln. Could tell they were elevated but had hopes the Lincoln storm would be able to move off the front when it turned east after moving northeast. No luck and by the time I got back down to the storm it was weakening. Didn't even take any pics! Oh well, still early in the season!

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Huge bust for everyone including SPC

No tornado does not equal a bust. The hail here at UNL city campus was quite impressive. Not to mention the one moment where warnings stretched from Waverly, NE to Concordia, KS. Plus, weren't you in a warning at one point in Hickman?

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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1 tornado in Carroll  Cty , IA--- and really not that many hail/wind reports from  an enhanced threat. BUST big time. Probably because I got on for this summer stuff....

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Might become the largest out break of the season next Thu-Sat as models are showing a pretty strong system coming out of the Rockies.

 

C98OfUpXUAAHOIj.jpg

 

 

Some pretty strong wording from the SPC for their Day 8 outlook. I'll be in Vancouver this week on a work trip and will be returning on Friday, so hopefully it holds off until the afternoon so I can get out there and chase!

 

 

   ...Friday/Day 8...

   The ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement in the western U.S.,

   developing a vigorous upper-level trough in the Four Corners region.

   This coincides with strong moisture advection across the Great

   Plains. The synoptic setup which the medium-range models have been

   forecasting for a couple days, could result in a significant severe

   weather event on Friday into Friday night across parts of the

   southern and central Plains with tornadoes, large hail and wind

   damage possible. Due to the potential for a higher-end event on

   Friday, have added a 15 percent contour where model consensus places

   the greatest chance of severe weather.

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I am getting pretty excited/optimistic for storm chances next week. Yeah it's a ways away, but models have been consistent in showing something big the last 1/2 of next week. Also looks like multiple chances as pieces of energy eject out ahead of the main trough, so could be chances from Wednesday all the way through Saturday. Usually though by the time you get to the end of a multiple day outbreak, the atmosphere gets too worked over and the wind fields aren't as favorable especially with a closed off 500mb low. At any rate I'm looking to Thursday/Friday as the possible big days. However, these things tend to slow down as well.

Looking out even longer, it looks to remain very active and also gets much warmer for a lot of areas. The GFS had highs in the upper 90s in the southeast and also had lots of 70+ dewpoints east of the Rockies and even up into the southern Great Lakes. What a quick switch to summer that would be! Lastly it showed rainfall amounts of 5-8" for lots of places over the next couple of weeks.

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I am getting pretty excited/optimistic for storm chances next week. Yeah it's a ways away, but models have been consistent in showing something big the last 1/2 of next week. Also looks like multiple chances as pieces of energy eject out ahead of the main trough, so could be chances from Wednesday all the way through Saturday. Usually though by the time you get to the end of a multiple day outbreak, the atmosphere gets too worked over and the wind fields aren't as favorable especially with a closed off 500mb low. At any rate I'm looking to Thursday/Friday as the possible big days. However, these things tend to slow down as well.

Looking out even longer, it looks to remain very active and also gets much warmer for a lot of areas. The GFS had highs in the upper 90s in the southeast and also had lots of 70+ dewpoints east of the Rockies and even up into the southern Great Lakes. What a quick switch to summer that would be! Lastly it showed rainfall amounts of 5-8" for lots of places over the next couple of weeks.

This system is correlating with the last significant mult-day severe wx outbreak on Feb 28th/March 1st...I remember all the Tornado's we saw in IL that day in late Feb.  Given the time of year now, I'd imagine the atmosphere will be juiced up to produce some pretty good chances for ya'll storm chasers!

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12z Euro looks mighty strong and favorable for a huge severe wx threat next Friday into Saturday...the system on Friday may hit the same areas that were targeted back on Feb 28th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017042112/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_8.png

 

 

Next Sat system will need to slow down a bit and head farther west in order for NE folks to get in on the action...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017042112/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_9.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017042112/ecmwf_T850_us_9.png

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the 06z was shades of this week. A surface low develops out ahead of the potential big day friday(GFS shows thursday, but it tends to have a progressive bias, and I believe that it will slow down towards friday with time) However, unlike previous runs, the early wave on tue/wed amplifies and this causes CAA to really interfere with lee cyclogenesis of the next wave. The product of this is now the friday wave is shoved further much south and 5mb weaker. This results in a much less impressive setup overall, but still a relatively decent one, if introduced capping concerns are alleviated. 12z GFS looks more or less like the 06z run. Regardless, potential is 100% there for one of the bigger days this season has seen so far, perhaps the biggest if cards are played right.

 

EDIT: After the 12z run came in, it is still certainly suppressed, but still gets the job done. The setup is still significantly further south, but the axis of backed winds out ahead of the surface low is much wider and is deeper with a 990-992mb surface low over west texas. Still not 00z weenie material but better than the 06z.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Based on what I'm seeing, both GFS/EURO pushing the severe wx threat farther S/SE.  Today's 12z GFS has shunted it down towards the southern Midwest/Plains which is similar to last nights Euro run.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

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