2017 Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread

[Tom]

I'm currently out in Rapid City SD. It looks like we might get some action tomorrow.

Just after dinner time is when the atmosphere looks to ignite!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061206/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_20.png

[Tom]

These lines look like they will produce some long lasting "derecho's" in IA and maybe Wisco...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061206/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_25.png

[Tom]

It's funny, all of a sudden OMA/LNK getting in on some morning storms...hearing reports of very large hail in excess of 1.5" near LNK...

[Jaycee]

It's funny, all of a sudden OMA/LNK getting in on some morning storms...hearing reports of very large hail in excess of 1.5" near LNK...

We got smoked. 4.5" of rain at my house. So unexpected. Didn't get the huge hail but some decent sized stuff came down. Reports of egg sized hail on the southwest side of town. Pretty awesome!

[VMB443]

You're missing some action back home tonight! Dark enough for streetlights to go on - heaviest storms are north of my location but we have some nasty looking clouds and wind just started.

 

I'm currently out in Rapid City SD. It looks like we might get some action tomorrow.

[jaster220]

This heat wave will certainly dry out the region and I'd imagine the grass will start to turn brown in spots???

 

X-way medians are already bad and some very open grass is all brown. Drought-like feel to it. Since I just re-landscaped my garden and invested in some upgrades I'm watering every evening during this heatwave. With the electricity for the central a/c and water both coming from city of Marshall's over-priced utility dept, I'm sure I'll hate the bill I get next month!

[Niko]

X-way medians are already bad and some very open grass is all brown. Drought-like feel to it. Since I just re-landscaped my garden and invested in some upgrades I'm watering every evening during this heatwave. With the electricity for the central a/c and water both coming from city of Marshall's over-priced utility dept, I'm sure I'll hate the bill I get next month!

I know whatcha mean....hopefully, mother nature can provide some water.

[Tom]

Some storm action around dinner time in E NE moving east into IA later this evening...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061306/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_19.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061306/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_21.png

 

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif?1497360955452

[jaster220]

See my post in the June thd for what I think of mby's chances, but I'd love to get lucky with that marginal stripe across SMI

 

Future-cast says it's possible, but I've had 80% likely in my NWS local and not a drop already once this spring, so zero holding of breath, lol

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

The MPX office is usually pretty ho hum and rarely shows excitement, which makes this interesting:

We`ll start with this afternoon. First, when looking at forecast

shear/instability parameters along with forecast soundings for

today, the first reaction we have been hearing around the office

is wow. The type of environment forecast to be over MN today is

something that we only see maybe a couple of times a decade up

here. 3000-5000 j/kg of MLCAPE, 40-50 kts of deep shear, h85 jet

increasing to between 40 and 50 kts, and effective storm relative

helicity north of the warm front forecast to get up between 300

and 600 m2/s2. That warm front shows up well on the 0.5 degree

reflectivity from MPX just into the far southern Twin Cities metro

area and by most accounts, it is forecast to get up to or a little north of I-94

[gabel23]

Had an interesting night tonight. We had a gust front/dust front move through around 8:30 tonight. The dust dropped visibility down to a couple hundred feet. Reports show 65-70 mph winds at this time. It was insane! Lots of damage around town including this picture that I took on the east side of town. Here is Hastings write up from the other day. My picture made their page! 

[St Paul Storm]

Nice pics Gabel!

 

Had a severe line of storms roll through around 1am this morning. Hearing reports of gusts of 70mph in the Twin Cities. I believe that. The whole house was shaking. Power was out for about 4 hours.

[clintbeed1993]

Had golf ball sized hail and heavy rain in GI yesterday.  Some vivid cloud to ground lightning as well.  The 1 exciting storm day of the entire season so far!  What a tease, it reeled me right back in.

[bud2380]

Had a nice downpour this morning, which we sorely needed.  We hadn't had any precip the entire month.  But it was short lived and nothing else in store.  We'll see if more storms materialize later this week.  We could use a couple good 1-2" type storms here.  

[Jaycee]

Chicago people-- I expect pictures coming in soon! Those storms have clocked 74 mph winds and they are rolling right over you guys right now. Looks intense!!!

[Tom]

Chicago people-- I expect pictures coming in soon! Those storms have clocked 74 mph winds and they are rolling right over you guys right now. Looks intense!!!

I saw a video live feed on FB and it was pouring buckets! Crazy.

[Madtown]

Guessing winds of 60+ here this afternoon. Many trees 15"diameter and bigger down. Power was out for 3 hours.

[Tom]

Guessing winds of 60+ here this afternoon. Many trees 15"diameter and bigger down. Power was out for 3 hours.

The rolling hills of Madison...I love driving up to Wisco on the 90 and seeing the rolling hills and green lush forests/farmland.

[Tom]

Activity is going to pick up this weekend into next week...get ready for some chasing...

 

 

[Jaycee]

Interesting wording coming from the SPC on their Day 3 outlook. It is just a slight risk right now for Eastern Nebraska, Iowa, and Northern Missouri, but towards the end, sounds like they know they're going to increase it. I'm speculating, but from the sounds of this, if it does in fact pan out, someone is going to get an enhanced/moderate risk here in the next couple days:

 

It is possible that activity could consolidate and grow further upscale into one large forward (eastward/southeastward) propagating convective system capable of producing one or more broad swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts before convection weakens by late Saturday night.  Correspondingly, severe probabilities may be increased considerably further in subsequent outlooks closer to the event.  However, at this time, the forecast remains complicated by potential convective development in the preceding days, which remains unclear, and could provide negative feedback with regard to convective potential by Saturday. 

 

 

[Tom]

SPC latest update...

 

 

 

 

Friday looks prime for IA...

 

[bud2380]

uh-oh we've got a Derecho Watch for Saturday...  

 

From DVN NWS

 

Saturday/Saturday evening: A potent severe weather situation
appears to be shaping up for the afternoon and early evening
hours. SPC has an enhanced risk for much of the dvn cwa as a
deepening upper level trough/stronger cold front arrives. There
is the potential for a derecho or at least bowing segments forming
into a mature bowing squall line, along with possible spin-up
tornadoes (mesovortices). With the strong heating/instability and
mid level winds of 70-75 knots, there is the potential for 70-80+
mph very damaging winds. Highs will be in the 80s to lower 90s,
with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s, mainly south of

[Tom]

uh-oh we've got a Derecho Watch for Saturday...  

 

From DVN NWS

 

Saturday/Saturday evening: A potent severe weather situation

appears to be shaping up for the afternoon and early evening

hours. SPC has an enhanced risk for much of the dvn cwa as a

deepening upper level trough/stronger cold front arrives. There

is the potential for a derecho or at least bowing segments forming

into a mature bowing squall line, along with possible spin-up

tornadoes (mesovortices). With the strong heating/instability and

mid level winds of 70-75 knots, there is the potential for 70-80+

mph very damaging winds. Highs will be in the 80s to lower 90s,

with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s, mainly south of

06z NAM-3km highlighting the above...could be a nasty night for you guys in IA...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061606/nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_21.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061606/nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_25.png

[bud2380]

I could use the rain after last night's incredibly unlucky round of storms for me.  Areas surrounding me got hit pretty hard, I ended up with a 1/4" is all.  I could use a solid 1-2" soaker.  

[Hawkeye]

I only picked up 0.25" as well.  I'm glad the large hail missed, though.

 

Tom, the NAM maps you posted are showing the Friday evening convection, not the Saturday event DVN is hyping in their discussion.  Most models are keeping the Saturday event south and east of Cedar Rapids.

[Tom]

I only picked up 0.25" as well.  I'm glad the large hail missed, though.

 

Tom, the NAM maps you posted are showing the Friday evening convection, not the Saturday event DVN is hyping in their discussion.  Most models are keeping the Saturday event south and east of Cedar Rapids.

Ah, yes...nice catch...sorry about that...

[Hawkeye]

Today's HRRR runs are showing this evening's event playing out similarly to last evening's, with strong storms in northeast Iowa and southwest Iowa, with not much in between.

[bud2380]

Watch likely for Eastern NE

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1055.html

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1055.gif

[Jaycee]

Watch likely for Eastern NE

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1055.html

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1055.gif

 

 

HRRR drills us here in LNK run after run. Going to be an interesting night, looks like these suckers could be dropping some monster hail around here.

[bud2380]

Now a watch also likely for N IA & S MN.  Hopefully this area sags southeast tonight after they fire up.  A nice bow echo with heavy rain would be great.

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1057.gif

[bud2380]

Watches now issued for both E NE and N IA/S MN.  

[Tom]

I bet those towering cumulonimbus clouds to the NW of OMA posters looks amazing!  Big time storms firing up near Norfolk, NE...

[Tom]

Couple nasty Tornado warned cells heading SSE...beeline for OMA posters...

[Tom]

Rush hour is going to be impacted for those near OMA...and possibly LNK if there is development to the west as the line of storms sags south...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/OAX/N0Q/OAX.N0Q.20170616.2232.gif

[Jaycee]

Rush hour is going to be impacted for those near OMA...and possibly LNK if there is development to the west as the line of storms sags south...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/OAX/N0Q/OAX.N0Q.20170616.2232.gif

HRRR was showing us in Lincoln getting smacked but the development is further NE now and we are going to get shafted I think. Omaha is directly in the path of these storms. I'm heading up there shortly to watch it, those storms in Norfolk are intense!

[gabel23]

Two broad areas of circulation. I'm watching live storm chasing and there is tremendous amount of lighting! Seen a couple of positive strikes coming out of the anvil, you don't want to get hit by one of those! 

 

 

[Jaycee]

Two broad areas of circulation. I'm watching live storm chasing and there is tremendous amount of lighting! Seen a couple of positive strikes coming out of the anvil, you don't want to get hit by one of those! 

Hopefully we get some development near your area, if not both of us look like we'll get shafted.

[gabel23]

Hopefully we get some development near your area, if not both of us look like we'll get shafted.

No kidding, I'm watching and hoping for some back building! If that supercell just south of Norfolk stays together I might be heading east to chase! 

[Tom]

I'm excited for you guys in NE to finally see some legit severe wx!  Snap a lot of pics, I bet those clouds are photogenic.

[gabel23]

I'm excited for you guys in NE to finally see some legit severe wx!  Snap a lot of pics, I bet those clouds are photogenic.

Here is one for you Tom, I'm about 60-70 miles away from those supercells and the anvil has darken my sky. Also hearing some rumbling of thunder; again I can't say enough, I'm not sure I have ever seen this much lighting in a long time on radar! 

[gabel23]

The couplet is getting stronger; if there is a tornado the thing will be completely rain wrapped. 

[Tom]

Here is one for you Tom, I'm about 60-70 miles away from those supercells and the anvil has darken my sky. Also hearing some rumbling of thunder; again I can't say enough, I'm not sure I have ever seen this much lighting in a long time on radar! 

I'm jealous!  It's been too long since I've seen a good storm.  Last summer I had a couple good ones that crossed over my place.  But man, today's storms are insane!

[gabel23]

Now the storm one county to my north just went tornado warned! I'm for sure going out now! 

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
609 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

The National Weather Service in Omaha has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Madison County in northeastern Nebraska...
Northwestern Platte County in northeastern Nebraska...
East central Boone County in northeastern Nebraska...

* Until 645 PM CDT

* At 609 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 5 miles southwest of Newman Grove, or 32 miles
southwest of Norfolk, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Lindsay around 620 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Tarnov.

This includes Highway 81 in Nebraska near mile marker 126.

[Tom]

LNK is now in the game...line of storms is building back west and sagging south. They usually do in situations like these.

[Hawkeye]

88 mph wind gust at the OAX NWS office.... wow!

[Hawkeye]

Lincoln got clobbered as well.  There's a report of 87 mph just nw of town, plus several wind damage reports.

[gabel23]

Lincoln got clobbered as well.  There's a report of 87 mph just nw of town, plus several wind damage reports.

Yes they did, reports of 80-95 mph winds around Lincoln and at the NWS office in Valley. I captured the approaching shelf cloud coming into my town, thank goodness wind and hail wasn't that bad. I was able to capture blowing dust with the approaching gust front; that was pretty sweet! Got nickel sized hail in town and about .50" of rain, thank goodness the wind wasn't as bad as Tuesday night. 

[gabel23]

Here  is some video I shot as the gust front approached me. I wish I would have stayed just a little bit longer! Can't believe how much dust got kicked up after the rain that we got on Tuesday. 

[NEJeremy]

74k without power in Omaha metro. Tornado also touched down in Bellevue on southern end of town. Worst storm since 2008 and I am out of town! Mad I missed it but glad I don't have to deal with no power

[Jaycee]

Jeremy wtf man, where were you at?! This storm was insane. Hands down the best storm I've seen in Omaha. I'll post better videos but this is all my phone would allow, that gust in that first video actually toppled a tree over by where I was at. This storm was truly unreal.

trim.2D09C6C0-1A9A-42DB-B35B-5329F71E78C6.MOV

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