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March 2014 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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With meteorological winter coming to a close this week, Spring is around the corner.  Will March come in roaring like a Lion like it did last year???  Sure looks like it.  00z GFS says yes to widespread snow as we welcome in the new month and more cold to follow.  How long will this pattern last???  Discuss....

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Looks like it sends a light wave Fri/Sat and then another on Sunday.  The main system develops in southern Plains but having trouble phasing and shearing out.  Wouldn't take much to have this storm phase and hook NE into Lower Lakes.

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Looks like it sends a light wave Fri/Sat and then another on Sunday.  The main system develops in southern Plains but having trouble phasing and shearing out.  Wouldn't take much to have this storm phase and hook NE into Lower Lakes.

Okay, yup you're right, WxBell just loaded. Interesting. I truly expected that big system to be suppressed and not phase into a big storm for us. The DVN did mention the models could have some trouble with a potential changing pattern, but last time they said that, the storm still got suppressed. That may actually be the same storm from the LRC pattern.

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Who thinks we will see another visit of the Polar Vortex this month???  I think there is a good possibility following the expected storm system to hit around the 3/8-3/10 timeframe.  The pattern we endured in week 2-4 in January could very well repeat that brought the central/eastern CONUS frigid temps during that period.  This would bring a period of non stop Clippers and a NW Flow.

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I think this is the last time the PV comes down into the continental US. If it does get displaced I don't think it will come any further south than Hudson Bay. There's indications that the flow will start to change on the 7th about. The coldest air might end up being in the Northeast and Quebec with developing low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. Time is quickly running out for these frigid air masses.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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We are still 7 days away from the main event and I think it is premature to say this storm will be suppressed.  GFS has had back to back runs of the storm very close to our region and with ample moisture supply.  Be patient and lets see how the models handle the High to the north.

 

 

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00z Euro ensembles agree with the overall pattern I think that will evolve week 2-4 in March (repeating pattern in January).  A deep trough will develop over the central/eastern CONUS and a NW Flow is present.  I'm sure there will be very cold High Pressures swinging through our region in March.  Snow cover may persist well into March if this holds true.

 

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Difference between that geopotential height map in January is that the lowest heights are further north. Would expect a blend of western Canadian air in that scenario. East Coast would likely get all the good storms too. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Flood Outlook #1 from the DVN is out..I will share a part of it in quote below and the link to the whole thing above it. 

 

In general, most rivers around here are not expected to be too bad. Rock River and Pecatonica River have an elevated risk, but the Mississippi River just has a slight risk and the tributaries are near to slightly below normal risk. As they will point out, the snowfall amounts this year are above normal, but the actual liquid content in that snowfall is below normal, so the risk of flooding is really not raised that much. Good to hear, flooding in some areas around East Dubuque can get really nasty.

 

Anyway, here is the link: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/?n=floodoutlook

 

And some text:

 

 

...Spring Flood and Hydrologic Outlook - Issued Thursday, February 20, 2014...

 

Highlights for eastern Iowa, northwestern Illinois, and far northeastern Missouri:

  

  • There is an elevated risk of spring flooding for the Rock River and Pecatonica River in northwest Illinois.
  • The spring flood risk for the Mississippi River is near normal to slightly elevated from near Dubuque, Iowa downstream to Gregory Landing, Missouri.
  • The spring flood potential is near to slightly below normal for the tributary rivers across eastern Iowa and northeastern Missouri.
  • Current conditions as of February 20, 2014:
    • Above to well above normal snowfall has been experienced this winter, however the liquid water content of the snow cover has not been above normal.
      • Water equivalent of the snow cover ranges from a trace to around 2 inches across eastern and southeastern Iowa, and 1 to 3 inches across northeastern Iowa and north central Illinois. Slightly higher amounts remain to the north generally in the 2 to 5 inch range across the Upper Mississippi River basin in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
    • Below normal soil moisture conditions were in place entering the winter season and remain below normal.
    • Near to below normal stream levels entering the winter season have generally continued through the winter.
    • Significant frost depths of 2 to 3 feet have resulted from below normal temperatures this winter. The deeply frozen soils will be a factor to watch as snowmelt and rainfall on frozen ground will runoff quickly.

 Important factors to watch as the spring season approaches:

  • Significant frost depth that may interfere with the absorption of snowmelt and rainfall
  • Future precipitation (snowfall and rainfall)
  • Potential for ice jam flooding during the melt period

The 2nd Spring Flood and Hydrologic Outlook will be issued on Thursday, March 6, 2014.

 
 
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12z Euro actually looks fairly similar to the GFS in terms of where it takes the snowfall. The high pressure up north doesn't look all that impressive, but this thing really starts to explode once it gets into Indiana and produces some big snowfalls from eastern Indiana to the East Coast. Some potential for a big storm over here, but I think we're going to see another storm that stays suppressed around here and has more of a west-east orientation and hammers the eastern part of the U.S.

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I'm going to have to disagree with you Geo's in terms of the overall pattern as we head into the 2nd week of March and beyond.  Ridging in western N.A/Alaska is forecasted to develop again and that screams the overall pattern we have seen so persistently and consistently this winter.  Late season COLD is on the table and highs in the 10's/low 20's are certainly possible.  I said it before and I will say it again, this winter will go down as one of the most "extreme" winters we have seen in Decades.

 

 

BTW, as ED said, 12z Euro coming north and starting to correct the storm track according to the LRC.   Remember, these are 10:1 snow ratios and will probably be closer to 14:1 with 850's near -8C.

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I'm going to have to disagree with you Geo's in terms of the overall pattern as we head into the 2nd week of March and beyond.  Ridging in western N.A/Alaska is forecasted to develop again and that screams the overall pattern we have seen so persistently and consistently this winter.  Late season COLD is on the table and highs in the 10's/low 20's are certainly possible.  I said it before and I will say it again, this winter will go down as one of the most "extreme" winters we have seen in Decades.

 

 

BTW, as ED said, 12z Euro coming north and starting to correct the storm track according to the LRC.   Remember, these are 10:1 snow ratios and will probably be closer to 14:1 with 850's near -8C.

What was the first storm that correlates with this one?

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I'm not sure I understand your question...are you asking, what storm does the 3/2-3/3 storm correlate to? If so, it would be the Jan 4-5th storm.

Alright, I don't really know how my area did with that one. 6" max, I know that, because that's the largest I've had this year. I really should start keeping track of the storms and when they happen, it'll help with the LRC stuff.

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I'm going to have to disagree with you Geo's in terms of the overall pattern as we head into the 2nd week of March and beyond.  Ridging in western N.A/Alaska is forecasted to develop again and that screams the overall pattern we have seen so persistently and consistently this winter.  Late season COLD is on the table and highs in the 10's/low 20's are certainly possible.  I said it before and I will say it again, this winter will go down as one of the most "extreme" winters we have seen in Decades.

 

 

BTW, as ED said, 12z Euro coming north and starting to correct the storm track according to the LRC.   Remember, these are 10:1 snow ratios and will probably be closer to 14:1 with 850's near -8C.

 

Is this all with this upcoming storm?

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I respect everyone's take on it. 

My take on the next 2 weeks.

 

I don't see any big storms cutting into the Great Lakes until that ridging on the west coast and Alaska relaxes. Maybe a 3-5" event for here on south, but as far as Wisconsin as a whole, it will be mostly dry.

I still think that around the 7th we are going to see a shift of the coldest anomalies into eastern Canada and the Northeast/Eastern Lakes. The effect of the SSW will wane by then and the teleconnections will likely start a shift, starting with a more neutral PNA.

In terms of highs in the teens, I would expect they will run out in the next 14 days. Probably only 10 more days until the risk of sub zero overnight lows disappear for south of 43°N. 

 

Overall it is just weather, and who really knows what it will be likely in 2 weeks.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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My take on the next 2 weeks.

 

I don't see any big storms cutting into the Great Lakes until that ridging on the west coast and Alaska relaxes. Maybe a 3-5" event for here on south, but as far as Wisconsin as a whole, it will be mostly dry.

I still think that around the 7th we are going to see a shift of the coldest anomalies into eastern Canada and the Northeast/Eastern Lakes. The effect of the SSW will wane by then and the teleconnections will likely start a shift, starting with a more neutral PNA.

In terms of highs in the teens, I would expect they will run out in the next 14 days. Probably only 10 more days until the risk of sub zero overnight lows disappear for south of 43°N. 

 

I seriously, seriously miss the old Geos. The cold is having an enormous affect on you.

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Snowstorms of this magnitude are not a surprise to blow up in the OV region, in fact, some of the biggest snow storms have hit in early March.  If it trends stronger, it will trend farther NW like the last system did last week.

 

Money, here are the 24-hour totals...and yes, most of it falls from the 3/2-3/3 system.

 

 

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I seriously, seriously miss the old Geos. The cold is having an enormous affect on you.

 

If you want to know the truth, I extremely dislike it at this point. Of course that shouldn't be surprising, since the extreme cold got to me a month ago.

 

But my take on the next two weeks is based on at least some model support. More so the GFS than anything.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The models have always trended warmer in the long range and then once it gets closer to the event it goes back to a cold look. This isn't anything new. Obviously it has to change at some point, but who knows.

 

12z GFS still has highs of 0 degrees on March 10th which is like 15-16 days out. 

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I don't believe the extended GFS on temperatures. Just look at this morning, widespread predicted lows that were up to 8° too warm. For the record I have never seen sub zero in March, so next week should prove interesting to say the least.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I don't believe the extended GFS on temperatures. Just look at this morning, widespread predicted lows that were up to 8° too warm. For the record I have never seen sub zero in March, so next week should prove interesting to say the least.

 

You just said you looked at the GFS which shows what you think is going to happen, yet you don't look at the "temperatures" it shows it being colder than normal all the way through its run with colder air rushing in again on the 9th-11th then finally reaching about 30 by the end of its run. 

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Here is a post from JB regarding the Brazilian meteograms for Chicago out till April.  Brazilian model did a great job picking out the general trend for our winter here.  Use this as guidance, rather than a forecast.  Many models indicating March will be pretty brutal around these parts.  1st 3 weeks of this month may not even get above freezing, maybe 1 or 2x but the trend is very cold and snowy.

 

 

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A lot of wish casting for warmth may be the precursor to the WINTER BLUES...we may have to start getting used to these type of winters over the next 10-20 years.

 

On another note, for you snow lovers out there....get ready for an exciting month.

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A lot of wish casting for warmth may be the precursor to the WINTER BLUES...we may have to start getting used to these type of winters over the next 10-20 years.

 

On another note, for you snow lovers out there....get ready for an exciting month.

 

Yup. 18z GFS showing less suppression this time around. Maybe it can move a tad north just a bit to help us out?

 

18-24 for W/C IA. 6-8 up towards DBQ towards Chicago (with 12+ not far off) and then 2-4 for most of C/S. WI. Just need a tad less suppression and a bit more phasing to help us out. 100+ hours out yet.

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I'm sure the IA snow weenies will start to wake up and see the pattern and not hug each model run like its the last....having said that, I would suggest paying attention to the overall wx pattern.  Like I said, many of us on this forum by the end of this month will be breaking all-time snow records.  So don't put away your shovels, snow blowers just yet...your going to use them a lot more this month.

 

Feast your eyes on this snowfall map....ummm, Yes!  Suppression????  I think not!

 

 

 

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12+ for Chicago by HR 189.

 

Big thing is we need to get that system to phase and lift farther north. The one for the Feb 28th timeframe. If we can get that and delay the high coming in a bit it could allow the next system to follow the same type of path.

 

18z GFS shows just that. We'll see if the 0z can continue the trend or if its just a blip in the 18z run.

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Nice run. But, just like you said Tom, can't hug the models. We'll see what happens, but is nice to see the GFS backed off the suppression and the Euro was showing signs of it as well. I don't have a problem with more snow, just the sub-zero nights. And I think Geos is the same; I don't think it's a sin to want some warmer temps, because it is possible to still see snow with the temps averaging out in the 30s!

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BTW, FWIW...Lake Michigan's ice cover has lessened from the warmth last week and GFS is picking up on a long duration LehS snow fall.  I'm sure a lot of the area will refreeze with the cold coming in this week though.

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We have seen today's 06/12z GFS show better signs of a northward trend and now the 18z GFS is becoming juicier and better organized.  12z Euro backed that up by taking a big leap northward as well.  If tonight's 00z runs follow suit, we may have a very nice situation evolving over the coming week.

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