March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[Tony]

12+ for Chicago by HR 189.

 

Big thing is we need to get that system to phase and lift farther north. The one for the Feb 28th timeframe. If we can get that and delay the high coming in a bit it could allow the next system to follow the same type of path.

 

18z GFS shows just that. We'll see if the 0z can continue the trend or if its just a blip in the 18z run.

I will not get excited as this is the mid range GFS and only one run but if other models follow suit then it will be something to watch.

[Tom]

+1 Tony, it is the GFS, however, Euro was also showing showing signs of the potential this system can become. 

 

Here is the full run thru 204 HR...

[Tony]

+1 Tony, it is the GFS, however, Euro was also showing showing signs of the potential this system can become. 

 

Here is the full run thru 204 HR...

^You are right, I forgot about the Euro looking fairly decent as well so hope this is a trend in the right direction

[DominicR]

This one has big potential.

[Tom]

If the snow cover builds back up in early March to widespread 12"+ snow depths in IA/N MO/IL etc...there will be more subzero cold in March if the pattern continues.  In fact, I find it rather interesting that some of the record lows this week that are in jeopardy are over 100+ years old dating back into the late 1880's!  The latest subzero record low temp for Chicago was March 22nd 1888 -1F.  Can you see the pattern???  If we can break records over 100+ years old this week, I don't see why we can't set new all time records for snow and cold.

[Tony]

Is this part of the system that hits California as it does have a ton of moisture to work with. Also looking like a lot of WAA snow for a long duration event.

[Tom]

Yes, this is the storm that hits Cali late this week.  Huge storm that will dump FEET of snow in the mountains.  I have a good feeling this storm is going to over perform from its previous cycle in the LRC and produce much more widespread significant snowfall.

[Tony]

Its really amazing how only a couple model runs ago nothing substantial was in the works then all of a sudden.....BOOM. Just goes to show you have to have patience as the weather will turn in a hurry. But saying this, the models can also take it away as they have done in the past numerous times.

[Tom]

Patience builds character, which builds into making wiser decisions...I agree with you Tony, we shouldn't jump the gun just yet...but having the knowledge to make an educated forecast is better than watching 1 model run and saying that will be what happens.  I've been paying attention to this storm for about 2 weeks now and said that March will roar in like a Lion.  It's fascinating to see the evolution of the LRC in the model runs today.  Nonetheless, it will be an exciting week to see how this system evolves.

[Tom]

Just looked at the Euro weeklies and its confirming the cold to continue for the next 3 weeks.  It's also showing a lower lakes cutter 3/8-3/9 period, which BTW, is the same period I said our next storm system would start to appear.

[james1976]

How high would these ratios be? Wow.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[james1976]

everyone here keeps talking about a "storm". the GFS is showing several waves or systems. So which one is the "storm"? lol

[East Dubzz]

everyone here keeps talking about a "storm". the GFS is showing several waves or systems. So which one is the "storm"? lol

I believe the storm with the most potential is next Monday and like next Tuesday. Looks like two separate waves, though. Really tricky to figure out, something I'll have to read an AFD on to get a better understanding of. 

[Money]

18z GFS ensembles are a mix bag as one would expect 150+ hours out.

 

Out of the 12 members:

 

4 have 1.00+ QPF for Chicago. 

4 have .1-.25 QPF for Chicago.

4 have .25-.5 QPF for Chicago.

 

This is a big increase over the 6z and 12z GFS ensembles though. 

[MarcusBeier]

+1 Tony, it is the GFS, however, Euro was also showing showing signs of the potential this system can become. 

 

Here is the full run thru 204 HR...

DTX donut hole, not liking that run..if everyone else gets a foot, SEMI wants a foot =)

[Geos]

You just said you looked at the GFS which shows what you think is going to happen, yet you don't look at the "temperatures" it shows it being colder than normal all the way through its run with colder air rushing in again on the 9th-11th then finally reaching about 30 by the end of its run. 

 

GFS is cold biased - last week during the WAA proved that. Actually every model busted on that.

Those low 30s would translate to low 40s given it being March, especially if it was sunny.

[Geos]

I'm done with winter till next season...

 

Something I've been looking for to be mentioned in the AFD's was brought up by LOT today. The under cutting of the Alaska Ridge.

 

 

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IN ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE ALASKA RIDGE LEADING TO A LOWER
AMPLITUDE MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS
THERE MAY BE SOME PHASING OF EXISTING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH
ENERGY FROM THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERN STREAM. THE DEGREE WITH WHICH
THIS OCCURS IS UP IN THE AIR BUT DO HAVE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER TROUGH COMING DOWN THE NORTHERN STREAM. HOWEVER...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM CONNECTION MAY BE KEY IN GETTING ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE PRECIP LATER FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
SHOULD PHASING OCCUR THEN IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ANOTHER HYBRID
PACIFIC/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH WE HAVE SEEN A FEW TIMES THIS
WINTER. MANY VARIABLES NEED TO PLAY OUT FIRST BUT A SHIFT TO THE
MORE ZONAL PATTERN IS REASONABLE SUPPORTING SOME MODERATING OF TEMPS
BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

MDB

 

 

If that happens, then the unseasonably cold air air supply will be cut off. The EPO would actually probably remain somewhat negative, but it would be a pseudo -EPO as it wouldn't have the same effect as it has. 

Basically this would be an inverse of a cut off low. Same principal with the main jet stream by-passing the high to the south.

 

EDIT: It would still be cold, but more seasonable cold for awhile due to expansive snow cover that would likely hang around a bit longer. Maybe something like March of 2008.

[East Dubzz]

I'm done with winter till next season...

 

Something I've been looking for to be mentioned in the AFD's was brought up by LOT today. The under cutting of the Alaska Ridge.

 

 

 

If that happens, then the unseasonably cold air air supply will be cut off. The EPO would actually probably remain somewhat negative, but it would be a pseudo -EPO as it wouldn't have the same effect as it has. 

Basically this would be an inverse of a cut off low. Same principal with the main stream by-passing the high to the south.

And for those who may not like this Geos, or my attitude towards the warmer weather, give us a break, this has been a brutal, brutal winter as far as cold goes.

[Geos]

And for those who may not like this Geos, or my attitude towards the warmer weather, give us a break, this has been a brutal, brutal winter as far as cold goes.

 

We still have our record breaking winter in the books. And will still see some snow, but will get a break on our heating bills finally. lol

It should be an interesting thing to monitor in the next 10 days, besides the early week snow threat next week.

[Money]

I don't mind people who want warmer weather but like every post is talking about how things are going to trend warmer etc all based on what he wants and not what the models are showing.

[Tom]

I'm rooting for a big west/east swath of significant snowfall from the Plains to the Great Lakes.  The 500mb pattern would support this idea as the Pacific storm train hits California for a time before the west coast ridge amplifies once again.  First 10 days of March would be the most likely timeframe to see the biggest snow storms to hit the region before the NW Flow kicks in around week 2.

[Geos]

I guess LOT has been watching this trend for several run cycles now, so will see what this brings after the first 7 days of the month. ...Maybe that's what DVN was trying to get at 2 weeks ago.

(You can see the jet stream breaking through on the 500hPA geopotential height maps off the GFS starting around March 6th).

 

I'm still rooting for one last hooray snow wise though actually. Enough to hit the average March snowfall, which is about 7" I believe.

[East Dubzz]

And when a storm is coming, you guys post all the things that may supper a good storm and not necessarily what the models are showing. It's weather, wish-casting happens, don't blame anyone who wants out of this ice age.

[Geos]

Anyways...

 

First thing is first, an real early week snowstorm threat. That high to the north will have to back off in order to give the low room to go negative tilt. FYI: I'd give it till another day to 36 hours before starting a thread, just in case it ends up being a weak frontal wave.

[DominicR]

Anyways...

 

First thing is first, an real early week snowstorm threat. That high to the north will have to back off in order to give the low room to go negative tilt. FYI: I'd give it till another day to 36 hours before starting a thread, just in case it ends up being a weak frontal wave.

 

Even if it  does intial WAA could give us several inches across large chunk of Plains and into parts of Lakes.

[Geos]

Even if it  does intial WAA could give us several inches across large chunk of Plains and into parts of Lakes.

 

I was just reading that a flat wave is better. Otherwise a strong system could muscle its way too far NW.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I was just reading that a flat wave is better. Otherwise a strong system could muscle its way too far NW.

 

I'm all for a strong system, and based on recent posts, you probably are too lol.

[East Dubzz]

Tonight's runs are going to be very interesting!

[Money]

Yup. GFS up and running. Just hoping to see a continued look as the 18z gfs. 

[East Dubzz]

Yup. GFS up and running. Just hoping to see a continued look as the 18z gfs. 

Yeah, even if the storm doesn't come too much further north, would just like to see the same or a little weaker high pressure. I like our chances as long as that high pressure isn't too strong, or otherwise I've seen that win out way too many times this year.

[Money]

GFS continuing the trend of a farther north wave on the 28th.

[East Dubzz]

GFS continuing the trend of a farther north wave on the 28th.

No doubt. Nice hit on that wave.

[NEJeremy]

No doubt. Nice hit on that wave.

what site are you guys using that is already out that far? the site I use(mag.ncep.noaa.gov) is behind that

[East Dubzz]

what site are you guys using that is already out that far? the site I use(mag.ncep.noaa.gov) is behind that

I don't like using it because it can be hard to look at sometimes and not always show accurate amounts, but Instant Weather Maps updates faster than all other sites I've used.

[East Dubzz]

00z GFS showing a solid 3-6" event for most of Iowa on that run.

[Money]

00z GFS showing a solid 3-6" event for most of Iowa on that run.

 

Yup. And precip is breaking out a lot more and north from 18z out in the west.

[Money]

Gonna be a nice run for all of us again by the look of it at hr 108

[Iowawx]

Even if these runs come in good, don't hug them just yet. Still 100+ hours out. But I am hoping for a big hit here in Iowa. 

[Money]

Even if these runs come in good, don't hug them just yet. Still 100+ hours out. But I am hoping for a big hit here in Iowa. 

 

Yeah, we know, but it's the general trend. Weaker HP, farther north trend. 

[Money]

6-8+ from IA into Chicago and north into central WI through hr 126.