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March 2014 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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Long way to go, but I like our chances as this fits the pattern in Cycle 2 and I wouldn't be surprised if this system ( along with last week's system) turns out to be an over performer.

 

BTW, anybody going to the Soldier Field Hockey Game this Saturday????  Hawks vs Pittsburg...that should be a wintry scene with possible light snow in the air and cold temps near 20F.  It should bring back memories to a lot of Canadian hockey players playing in their homemade hockey rinks in their back yards and/or frozen ponds. 

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On another note, for those who don't want brutal cold, 00z GFS indicating at least 2 more subzero nights following the storm especially with a deep snow cover.  Gosh, this pattern just has "extreme" written all over it.

 

 

Edit: Money, I'll post when they are available

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00z GGEM a step in the right direction compared to its previous runs.  However, it tends to over power High Pressures and in this case its no different which shears the wave.

 

Yeah, tbh it's not far off from the GFS through HR 144. GFS had .6 to -.7 QPF. GGEM at HR 144 has .5 to .6 or so.

 

And with good ratios that should still be a very nice snowfall. 

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Not a bad run, there will be shifts in the overall track.  Euro does show a 2-4" snow fall for the Fri/Sat wave for IA/IL/S WI then the main system snow starts 06z Sunday.  The way I remember this system evolving in Cycle 2 is very similar with a long duration event and there wasn't a wound up SLP.

 

FWIW, on the Euro it does show a wind off the lake for more than 24+ hours and 850's are below -12C to -14C in N IL on Sunday.

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Not a bad run, there will be shifts in the overall track.  Euro does show a 2-4" snow fall for the Fri/Sat wave for IA/IL/S WI then the main system snow starts 06z Sunday.  The way I remember this system evolving in Cycle 2 is very similar with a long duration event and there wasn't a wound up SLP.

 

FWIW, on the Euro it does show a wind off the lake for more than 24+ hours and 850's are below -12C to -14C in N IL on Sunday.

 

Seems like the models are trending wetter on the Friday wave. GFS/GGEM/ECMWF all with 3+ with GGEM reaching warning type snows. 

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Major winter storm is becoming increasing likely from NEB to the Northeast late this weekend and early next week. WAA out ahead of it looks quite impressive and duration looks very long.. GFS has been quite constant now and we are only 120hrs away from 2nd wave. 1st wave looks to give IA and MO some quick snows Friday.

gfs_namer_147_500_vort_ht.gif

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