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March 2014 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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Can't imagine that 2nd wave intensifying up the Lakes..Looks like it looses steam and tracks well east of area up east coast. WAA might be overdone though.

Yeah sorry, but I just don't see a large area getting over 12" from this weekend. I think the models are overdoing things. Our AFD talks about light snow off and on all weekend. There's going to be breaks, so at most I see is maybe some 6" amounts through Monday, at least around these parts...

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EURO has been good on qpf this winter. Probably side with that model for now. The widespread nature of the highest amounts is a little off setting. Usually with WAA there is a favored narrower corridor of heaviest snows. (i.e. not 200 miles wide)

 

fyi... this site is really slow today!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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We all know how the media can overreact but I thought the headline on the Chicago Tribune website was a little aggressive. " Potentially Significant" snowstorm may hit Chicago area.

 

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-chicago-weather-forecast-20140225,0,4310461.story

 

Little premature. The system hasn't even been sampled yet. 

 

---

 

JB now acknowledging changes coming for March as the jet stream looks to change its flow. Mentions the MJO reactivating.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The Euro is showing the MJO entering phase 8,1,2,3 which are cold signals for March....I think the changes you are talking about are now for the colder forecast he has for his clients out for March.

 

Actually 8 is warm in March.

 

 

Thing of it is, the MJO loses amplitude through 1,2, and 3, which points to a lesser of a correlation to this graphic above.

 

 

JMA has it hanging out in 8 a while.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I won't be surprised to see even colder temps next week with a deep snow cover re-established.  Next week Tue & Wed nights may get down to -10's/20's subzero!  You can thank the Stratospheric Warming & Polar Vortex for that.

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Brett Anderson and the EURO weeklies have winter ending by the week of 16-22nd of March, expect maybe the Northeast. Things are going to start flattening out and be replaced by smaller waves in the flow. Split flow at that. Dry the week of the 9-15th (for this region). http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson

 

I don't think there's enough darkness (beyond this week) anymore to reach under -10°F in the lower Lakes. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Geo's, you said subzero temps were unlikely to be reached this week and we will probably tack on 3 more subzero nights with roughly 6" of snow cover on average at ORD.  Your only adding about maybe 20  minutes of sunlight tops by then and there will be more than 12" snow depth by then.  If you had money to bet, would you bet there wouldn't be -10F temps next week???

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Brett Anderson and the EURO weeklies have winter ending by the week of 16-22nd of March, expect maybe the Northeast. Things are going to start flattening out and be replaced by smaller waves in the flow. Split flow at that. Dry the week of the 9-15th (for this region). http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson

 

I don't think there's enough darkness (beyond this week) anymore to reach under -10°F in the lower Lakes. 

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_02250353_feb25c.png

 

That brings you into almost end of March which it obv. should start to warm up by then. 

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Geo's, you said subzero temps were unlikely to be reached this week and we will probably tack on 3 more subzero nights with roughly 6" of snow cover on average at ORD.  Your only adding about maybe 20  minutes of sunlight tops by then and there will be more than 12" snow depth by then.  If you had money to bet, would you bet there wouldn't be -10F temps next week???

 

Not this far south. I've seen 12" of snow depth in March before and it yielded lows around +5°. Maybe -5° one night next week, but -10° no way outside of typical radiational cooling spots like Aurora and Rochelle. Not near the UHI or nearer to the lake. (I think any met would agree with that) I think I said I have never seen sub zero in March before. You have to remember that the days are gaining even more minutes as you go north compared to here. Solar radiance is on the sharpest increase in March.

 

Enough said tonight. I'm checkin out.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I understand your points your trying to make.  However, that would justify some validity if this was a "normal" winter, but this is NOT a "normal" winter and the chances of having another arctic blast following the snowstorm coming this weekend holds some validity this pattern will repeat maybe one last time this winter to the extremes we are experiencing now.  In fact, the pattern that followed the Jan 4-5th storm had severe cold in our region and so I believe it holds some ground to see temps dip -10F or below at ORD. 

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It's too much a stretch to get really frigid cold any more. I know it's not a typical winter, but the conditions are changing as our days get longer and everything starts its retreat northward. Single digit lows in early March is nothing to sneeze at. lol

 

This morning it doesn't look like ORD managed to get below 0°, even under light winds.  Maybe some locations could have managed a few degrees lower with fresh snow. I would be dumbfounded if ORD managed anything lower than -5° in the next week, even with 6"+ of new snow.

 

...Even Aurora was only about 0°.

 

On a side note, CFS supports the EURO weeklies beyond the week 2 of March. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Looks like the GFS tries to warm it up for about 3 days next week, before another, but brief cold shot afterwards.

 

The CFS is about as predictable as the ground hog lately. I think it's better during the summer and winter, but not the transition seasons.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Now that the SSW event over eastern Asia/Siberia is over, I noticed there is some warming developing in the stratosphere to the west of Greenland into N Canada.  We'll see if that continues to build over the coming days.

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Now that the SSW event over eastern Asia/Siberia is over, I noticed there is some warming developing in the stratosphere to the west of Greenland into N Canada.  We'll see if that continues to build over the coming days.

does that mean blocking or what?

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My area is for a 2-4inch snowfall tomorrow night into early Sunday morning. Brings my season totals in the low to mid 80s. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'm noticing in the long range that there is more blocking showing up near Greenland towards week 3-4.  We may be seeing a -NAO evolving alongside a -AO.  CFS is now showing a late March surge in cold but before then the cold eases a bit.

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Tell me about it James, although over here we have the Urban Heat Island effect and melted more snow than over in IA and temps weren't as frigid.  I just can't fathom how persistent this pattern has been and if the -NAO develops and the -AO stays put, where in for a cold Spring.  Not what warm weather fans are looking for.  This winter may drag on into April!  JB mentioned that the Brazilian model is showing snow events into mid April for Chicago and the Midwest.

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is it bad that i want more? i think im so used to the bitter cold that i dont even care anymore and part of me wants to see how long this can go. lets make this a record breaking winter. and we are getting closer and closer to snowfall records. keep it coming!

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Tell me about it James, although over here we have the Urban Heat Island effect and melted more snow than over in IA and temps weren't as frigid.  I just can't fathom how persistent this pattern has been and if the -NAO develops and the -AO stays put, where in for a cold Spring.  Not what warm weather fans are looking for.  This winter may drag on into April!  JB mentioned that the Brazilian model is showing snow events into mid April for Chicago and the Midwest.

 

Could be a repeat of last spring I'm thinking.

 

Sun is actually coming out today. Wasn't expecting that.

 

Up to 18°.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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So...snow season pretty much done here? The way today's thing eventually evolved, from what was being shown 7-10 days ago, has given me severe reservations towards any model showing anything a week out.

...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

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So...snow season pretty much done here? The way today's thing eventually evolved, from what was being shown 7-10 days ago, has given me severe reservations towards any model showing anything a week out.

I've always had that feeling. Models even suck within 24 hours

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