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December 2022 Observations and Discussion


Iceresistance

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0z EPS starting to sniff out a wave along the thermal gradient pattern that'll set up over the MW somehere later next week.  Boy, that -NAO is a thing of beauty... @Clintonand KC peeps may need to watch the 12/7-12/9 period and up into the OHV.  I am noticing the EPS is pressing the cold air farther south the past couple runs starting early next week.

My attn then focus's in on the 12/11 - 12/13 period and beyond as the North American 500mb pattern is ripe with storms and cold to deliver the goods....Giddy Up!  The active part of the LRC is showing up and I think its going to provide some noteworthy winter storms come mid month.  I have envisioned an opined that a CO Low or Two during this upcoming period from 12/13 - 12/20.  @CentralNebWeather I think your overdue and the rest of the NE crew...#ShareTheWealth

 

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40 minutes ago, Tom said:

Life is more than just work and paying bills and stuck in the Rat Race.  You have to enjoy the simple things in Life and being a wx enthusiast I love the different aspects of the weather that both states provide.  I'm a secret mountain man, deep down inside, I feel like I'll retire somewhere up in the mountains, grow my own food and raise some livestock and live off the land that Mother Earth has always provided.  Greece is def on my bucket list and I'm planning on a Euro Trip sometime next Summer.  Would be awesome to meet up on the islands somewhere!

Absolutely. Hit a couple of beach bars and talk about weather for a bit. Sounds like a plan to me.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Well this has certainly changed a bit over the last couple weeks....

image.png.a0fad22e161f71fe098816ae0c949ad5.png

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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

0z EPS starting to sniff out a wave along the thermal gradient pattern that'll set up over the MW somehere later next week.  Boy, that -NAO is a thing of beauty... @Clintonand KC peeps may need to watch the 12/7-12/9 period and up into the OHV.  I am noticing the EPS is pressing the cold air farther south the past couple runs starting early next week.

My attn then focus's in on the 12/11 - 12/13 period and beyond as the North American 500mb pattern is ripe with storms and cold to deliver the goods....Giddy Up!  The active part of the LRC is showing up and I think its going to provide some noteworthy winter storms come mid month.  I have envisioned an opined that a CO Low or Two during this upcoming period from 12/13 - 12/20.  @CentralNebWeather I think your overdue and the rest of the NE crew...#ShareTheWealth

 

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Let's GO!!! 

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2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

The trusty Icon has a snowstorm on the 5th/6th in Michigan   🤣

It's a butt sniffer model, but occasionally will put it's nose in the air and smell something on its own. Leading the way??

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

It's a butt sniffer model, but occasionally will put it's nose in the air and smell something on its own. Leading the way??

Most other models has this suppressed south of my area clipping yours.  My call yesterday might be correct lol.  

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23 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Here is the updated CPC long range outlook for December 2022.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

Looks on the cold but maybe dry side.

That kind of monthly look can work, IF the precip is timed well for when it's cold enough.  Can find plenty of months that were colder/drier than average that were ok, if not good in the snow department.

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@jaster220 will like this

- COLD TO RETURN FOR A LONGER TIME NEXT WEEK     SO REMEMBERING MY THEME OF THE PAST FEW AFDS, AND CONSIDERING THE   DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH OVER GREENLAND, I AM THINKING WE WILL SEE   THE MODELS ALL TREND COLDER FOR NEXT WEEK OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL   CYCLES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER DEEP SURFACE LOW   TRACKING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME   FRAME BUT CURRENTLY THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THAT.   WHAT I AM MORE SURE OF THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH   COLDER THEN THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. I FATHER BELIEVE WE WILL   HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND OVER MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF   NEXT WEEK AS MORE THAN 90 PCT OF THE TIME AT GRR (I HAVE THE DATA   FOR THIS) IF THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE AT GRR IS BELOW FREEZING   THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND THAT DAY. SO, IF WE GET A PROLONG   PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES, IT WILL SNOW, NO MATTER   WHAT THE MODELS SAY NOW.

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1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

@jaster220 will like this

- COLD TO RETURN FOR A LONGER TIME NEXT WEEK     SO REMEMBERING MY THEME OF THE PAST FEW AFDS, AND CONSIDERING THE   DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH OVER GREENLAND, I AM THINKING WE WILL SEE   THE MODELS ALL TREND COLDER FOR NEXT WEEK OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL   CYCLES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER DEEP SURFACE LOW   TRACKING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME   FRAME BUT CURRENTLY THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THAT.   WHAT I AM MORE SURE OF THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH   COLDER THEN THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. I FATHER BELIEVE WE WILL   HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND OVER MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF   NEXT WEEK AS MORE THAN 90 PCT OF THE TIME AT GRR (I HAVE THE DATA   FOR THIS) IF THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE AT GRR IS BELOW FREEZING   THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND THAT DAY. SO, IF WE GET A PROLONG   PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES, IT WILL SNOW, NO MATTER   WHAT THE MODELS SAY NOW.

Who said it?

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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4 hours ago, westMJim said:

Here is the updated CPC long range outlook for December 2022.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

Looks on the cold but maybe dry side.

For their seasonal outlook for DJF 2013-14 they failed miserably in every category. Not saying they'll be wrong, its just that there are times when they can be way off the mark. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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54 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Who said it?

WDM - William (Bill) a younger and most pro-winter MET on staff at GRR. Apologize to him and you for not remembering his last name attm.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

@jaster220 will like this

- COLD TO RETURN FOR A LONGER TIME NEXT WEEK     SO REMEMBERING MY THEME OF THE PAST FEW AFDS, AND CONSIDERING THE   DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH OVER GREENLAND, I AM THINKING WE WILL SEE   THE MODELS ALL TREND COLDER FOR NEXT WEEK OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL   CYCLES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER DEEP SURFACE LOW   TRACKING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME   FRAME BUT CURRENTLY THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THAT.   WHAT I AM MORE SURE OF THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH   COLDER THEN THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. I FATHER BELIEVE WE WILL   HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND OVER MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF   NEXT WEEK AS MORE THAN 90 PCT OF THE TIME AT GRR (I HAVE THE DATA   FOR THIS) IF THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE AT GRR IS BELOW FREEZING   THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND THAT DAY. SO, IF WE GET A PROLONG   PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES, IT WILL SNOW, NO MATTER   WHAT THE MODELS SAY NOW.

Thanks. I like the positive vibes. Just have to hope that it can be "just cold enough" to include my area in any snow event. Keep in mind I live in the "almost" region of The Mitt when it comes to SN. Hey, at least I was driving home this evening in -SHSN. Got a few flakes outta this event which is better than I thought would happen. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It already feels like we're about to punt to the second half of December, once again.  There's no torch this year, but chilly and dry is pretty zzzz.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Just have to have so many things come together to get a storm around here.  

Really, it comes and goes. I remember clearly your area getting raked with a 12-18" bliz and being so jealous of all your nice photos of drifting. 5 or 6 yrs back?? The Plains are notoriously feast or famine in most wx categories. Pretty sure OMA got that sweet 14" storm just a few years back tho not sure it reached west enough to include yby. I've had only (1) dbl digit snowstorm in the past six winters, and barely reached at 10". 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just now, gabel23 said:

KC peeps, wasn’t Gary supposed to release his winter forecast tonight? Did he do it at 6 or not doing it until 10?

He did a special where Gary and his weather team made a season total snowfall prediction.  Gary predicted 17 inches of snow for the season which is a tad below average for KC.  He did say we will have snow before Christmas. 

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1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

Also wasting a perfect negative AO and NAO combo. 

Just wait a few weeks and ask again!

 

Right now, the PNA is way too negative for us to get the snowfall action. 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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42 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Just wait a few weeks and ask again!

 

Right now, the PNA is way too negative for us to get the snowfall action. 

Correct me if I'm wrong; a neutral to positive PNA brings in the ridge to the west and brings us a NW flow? Coupled that with the blocking of the NAO and negative AO slows storms down with the arctic air? I understand the NAO and AO but get confused with the PNA. 

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Really, it comes and goes. I remember clearly your area getting raked with a 12-18" bliz and being so jealous of all your nice photos of drifting. 5 or 6 yrs back?? The Plains are notoriously feast or famine in most wx categories. Pretty sure OMA got that sweet 14" storm just a few years back tho not sure it reached west enough to include yby. I've had only (1) dbl digit snowstorm in the past six winters, and barely reached at 10". 

That's crazy b/c I figured you would average a 12"+ snowstorm at least twice a year. We have actually been very fortunate the past 10 years. I have seen 3 in that time span with one storm having thunder snow. We only average 30" for an entire season and most of the time they are nickel and dime type storms. The winter of 2009-10, which I believe was my first year on this website, was bar none the best I have ever experienced. The teleconnections was pretty much spot on with what's going on now; the only difference is that was an El Nino winter. My area received our seasonal total in the month of December alone! We had a 20"+ snow depth after the x-mas blizzard until Feb. that year. 

Dec_27_snow.png

Screen Shot 2022-11-30 at 9.19.10 PM.png

SnowDepth_20091227_1200.png

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41 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

That's crazy b/c I figured you would average a 12"+ snowstorm at least twice a year. We have actually been very fortunate the past 10 years. I have seen 3 in that time span with one storm having thunder snow. We only average 30" for an entire season and most of the time they are nickel and dime type storms. The winter of 2009-10, which I believe was my first year on this website, was bar none the best I have ever experienced. The teleconnections was pretty much spot on with what's going on now; the only difference is that was an El Nino winter. My area received our seasonal total in the month of December alone! We had a 20"+ snow depth after the x-mas blizzard until Feb. that year. 

 

December of 2009 was truly a "December to Remember" for almost everyone in the state of Nebraska. Omaha "officially" picked up 25" of snow that month, even though I am guessing areas out west were closer to 30". This mostly fell through two separate storm systems/ blizzards, one during the first part of the month that dropped 10" to 14" of snow across the metro, then the very memorable second Christmas storm that dropped another 12" to 15" of snow over 3 days (starting on Christmas Eve). If I remember right, we had three Blizzard Warnings issued within a month's time - counting a snowy/ windy storm in early January. 

It seems like it's been feast or famine the last 10-15 years around here... either we get smoked with lots of snow or we have a winter full of cold, dry, and windy days - with huge swings in temperatures (much like this year so far), with a few warm and wet winters mixed in. Guess that's part of living in the Great Plains.  

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Welcome to meteorological winter! Yesterday’s official high of 54 occurred just after midnight and the temperature dropped all day. The low of 26 occurred just before midnight. There was 0.06” of precipitation of that a trace was snow fall. There was no sunshine yesterday.  The temperature has held steady overnight and the current temperature here is 27. For today the average H/L is now at 41/28 the record high of 65 was in 1970 and the record low of +6 was in 1976. The record snow fall amount is 5.0” in 2010. This past November had a mean of 40.9 that was a departure of +0.9. the high for the month was 75 and the low was 18 there was 28.0” of snow fall and that is the 2nd most for any November.

A brief recap of meteorological autumn. At Grand Rapids the 3-month mean was 51.7. The 30 year mean is 51.6 so at Grand Rapids the temperature was very near average. Note that most other locations in lower Michigan had departures that were warmer than Grand Rapids. The highest reading in fall of 2022 was 85 on September 3rd and the lowest reading was 18 on November 19,20 and 22. There was a total of 7.37” of rain and melted snow fall that was well below the average of 10.55” There was 28.0: of snow fall and that was well above the average of 7.4”

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43 minutes ago, GDR said:

Bet the house that December will not be like 2000…

#STJ will be En Fuego post 12/10...not everyone will be benefit, but I can tell you, there will be a lot of happy winter wx fans on here.

I'm tracking a couple storms through the 2nd week of DEC alone coming out of the SW/TX PanHandle region....Storm target dates 12/10-12/12 and 12/15-12/17.  I expect a bit of lull following those storms but then things ramp up big time with a potential Christmas Eve (give or take a day) blockbuster.  I got my eyes on our southern friends with this storm potential that should cut somewhere up the OHV/App's given the relaxation of the PNA.  Sustained cold with plenty of high lat blocking should keep things winter-like for pretty much all of us on here.  I'm also seeing Hudson Bay HP's seeding cold over the GL's region during the Festive Christmas Holiday Week to close out DEC.  Could it be one that many will Remember???  Happy Meteorological Winter everyone!  

 

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Big snows out west in the mountains are expected.. Feet of snow. Travel is not recommended. Truckee, CA for i.e., is expecting to get inundated. This place is on my list. Will definitely have to visit soon.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yawner of an open to December.   Maybe the second week, but no big storms likely.  So colder, slightly BN, but no real snow.   Normalcy, unless you go back the last few years, and this will look like a real start to winter.  Just not a great one.  Good luck to everyone else.  

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13 hours ago, Clinton said:

He did a special where Gary and his weather team made a season total snowfall prediction.  Gary predicted 17 inches of snow for the season which is a tad below average for KC.  He did say we will have snow before Christmas. 

It's so crazy, he used to do a big winter special and post it on the blog. I'm wondering if he will do that maybe later in December? 

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