Jump to content

December 2022 Observations and Discussion


Iceresistance

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GEFS showing multiple waves much like the 10/23-10-30 series of storms.  Here is a view of the ensembles to the best of my ability to split them up.  Still lots of spread on precip amounts, type and timing.  Not sure if this will loop but I'll give it a try.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-central-precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel-1670068800-1670868000-1671148800-80.gif

12z GEFS

1671386400-4gDrDvgoxqg.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GEFS

1671386400-4gDrDvgoxqg.png

Thinking I'll end up with my normal inch now that models (I see you POS GFS) have done their usual tease with "max possible outcome" and pulled that rug immediately. Thought we were 3rd and goal for minute..more like 4th and long requiring yet another PUNT!

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thinking I'll end up with my normal inch now that models (I see you POS GFS) have done their usual tease with "max possible outcome" and pulled that rug immediately. Thought we were 3rd and goal for minute..more like 4th and long requiring yet another PUNT!

The GEFS seems to like KC around the 15th, as for Detroit and the rest of the waves, I just don't know right now.

  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The GEFS seems to like KC around the 15th, as for Detroit and the rest of the waves, I just don't know right now.

Climo gonna win this one here in the hot corner of The Mitt. GHD-3 is going rock it in Feb, lol

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Climo gonna win this one here in the hot corner of The Mitt. GHD-3 is going rock it in Feb, lol

To be honest I think the Canadian may be doing the best job compared to the other 12z models with the storm on the 12th and the pattern over all as I think it will play out.  Take it one state further east and I would be all in.
 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

To be honest I think the Canadian may be doing the best job compared to the other 12z models with the storm on the 12th and the pattern over all as I think it will play out.  Take it one state further east and I would be all in.
 

Sheesh, that looks to take an OCT path. What progress in 2 months time??

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Front blasted through early evening up here at the MN home. Pretty intense snow and strong winds made for quite the wintry scene! Half inch maybe 1' of snow. Blew around a lot. Nice little refresher!

Also coldest temp of the season so far as we got down to 4° for a low.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Thinking I'll end up with my normal inch now that models (I see you POS GFS) have done their usual tease with "max possible outcome" and pulled that rug immediately. Thought we were 3rd and goal for minute..more like 4th and long requiring yet another PUNT!

Bring back some of that optimism from last night lol

  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was looking up some December snowfall stats for Chicago.  The 4 Decembers from 2018-2021 produced the lowest cumulative snowfall total on record, just barely beating out 1936-1939.  

Dec 1936:  0.8"

Dec 1937:  3.4"

Dec 1938:  3.5"

Dec 1939:  0.5"

Total:  8.2"

 

Dec 2018:  1.4"

Dec 2019:  2.0"

Dec 2020:  2.8"

Dec 2021:  1.9"

Total:  8.1"

 

December snowfall average for Chicago is ~ 8"

  • Like 2
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bastardi with a good wright up on why the models have been so inconsistent as of late.  Here is his write up today.

If you are going to sway with the models your heart is going to be troubled. I can't remember when I saw a set up like this for multiple weeks in December. I have seen it with overpowering cold, but the upper pattern, as I showed yesterday, is going to be something we see in mid and late winter, not around the holiday season. To be clear we are talking the threat of multiple far-reaching events, not just one and done. Large Holiday season storms the past 10 years ( after Dec 15). Have been wiped out by warming. But I think many of you have a chance for snow on snow ( perhaps even more snow). before Christmas

At least there is a chance, right?

But you have to ask yourself, how are we seeing model runs that are so crazy. I mean you should not have runs like the 0Z GFS ( which wasnt bad to me)

gfs_ensemble_all_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_136

 

followed by this 6 hours later

gfs_ensemble_all_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_136

 

 

7 day means should not go from this

gfs_ensemble_all_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_7da

 

to this

gfs_ensemble_all_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_7da

 

. That is indicating that there are real problems in the general sense with the entire situation. I suspect it has to do with the fact that no model can handle what appears to be a record-breaking standard deviation from the average cold over the tropics and the warmth we are seeing in the form of the block coming back in the high latitudes

gfs_ensemble_all_avg_globe_z500_norm_ano

 

 

The standard deviation chart reveals much.

If you are not involved in the climate fight and debunking the absurdity of the trapping hotspot idea. ( its abusrd because it is not happening and if its no happening its a gut punch to the runaway warming idea) you’re probably not even looking at the west-east distribution of negative anomalies in the entire equatorial regions of the world! Its wild

 

And its likely way overdone as its absurd looking. The euro has cool spots (no above normal) and is impressive in itself as far as the counter-climate argument, but for our situation it means there has to be massive problems with the US models if they are going so crazy on the cool over the tropics.

ecmwf_ensemble_avg_globe_z500_norm_anom_

 

This is been going on now for a year and a half and it’s really pronounced. ( again the euro is impressive but the GEFS is crazy) So this is one of these cases where Little Joey boy being involved in his Neanderthal-denying ways is looking at something and saying, "wait a minute how the heck is a model going to handle that? Its not. And by the way, it does have implications as to this whole catastrophic warming theory because remember that was based on trapping hotspots over the tropics. Think about it. ff you’re trapping “heat“ in the Arctic it’s actually a response to force cool underneath. So it would be in line with what you would look for if there was a response from nature. If you were trapping heat over the tropics, then you would have a huge problem with runaway warming. All you have to do is understand the basic nature of what temperature actually means. Trapping and accumulating the energy where wet-bulb is 80 is far far different from where they are near below. In any case, it is because I am looking at this aspect that I’m able to share with you the idea that perhaps if you look at that aspect, and it likely had a big effect on the hurricane season and the fact that these tropical cyclones in the Pacific and the Atlantic are shifting north and are not as long tracked and large as they used to be, you would then say how are they hack are models supposed to handle this? The Euro with the more reasonable look is more consistent in its run-to-run ensemble 7-day DNS.

For instance, do you think the MJO response would be similar if let’s say the heights over the tropics we’re near or above normal, then what I’m showing you here.with the GEFS runaway cooling? So you have these models and they’re trying desperately to figure things out. These inputs that come in are like someone that is asleep and keeps having a mosquito land on them so they slap themselves in the face. That’s what the models keep doing as far as individual events. So what I’ve been doing is painstakingly looking over map after map of situations I think are similar for this mid and late December and there are not may. We don’t have 10 below normal in New York City for December for instance. We have it colder than normal and we’ve had it colder than normal but we understand the variance that is taking place. The big key is that when I look at those hurricane analogs where the pattern is set up they look very very similar to the blend of the analogs. So what I’m doing is I’m trying to determine which analogs are closest during what time period Yes, I’m using the models but I’m understanding that both methods due to the extremity of the situation over the tropics are going to be limited, and Akin to walking in a meteorologist minefield. Seriously have you pulled out the equatorial background at 500 mbar like I showed above and looked at the standard deviations as much as you look at let’s say, run after run of this model or that model? Because I’m sitting here looking at this, going on holy cow this is amazing. Seriously meteorologically speaking it is amazing as I say a 2-foot snowstorm. We all gawk at that It’s rare but if you love the entire picture and also again involve the whole climate situation you have to look at this it and think: What is going on here and how is this affecting what we are seeing? Because of observations and yes modeling and everything else, this is the golden age of Weather. I would not cut myself short becoming emotionally invested in a model run whether it looks good or bad or whatever but instead stand back and look at the total picture. There are some things going on that truly are amazing. And while a lot of you get uncomfortable when I start talking climate, if I wasn’t so addicted to the past and climate ( blame my dad) and also encounter some of the things that I hear from people who I don’t believe are forecasting the weather but researching it, I would not be picking the stuff up! A classic case of an adversarial position helping with a potential advantage. By the way, I am thankful for the critics, and for the disagreement. If I have to go look and I’m wrong, then adapting the right idea makes me stronger. If in looking I find I'm right, I’m still stronger. When focused on the right things it’s a win-win situation. As long as the freedom to debate these things be at Weather or whatever, is allowed to be out there.

 

I may not have the answer, but I darn sure am looking at the questions

I’ll close with this: pray for snow.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Bring back some of that optimism from last night lol

Ikr. For now, it is back to watching re-runs of former glory years until this one can make up its mind what it wants to do down here. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models are certainly having a hard time as of lately. What concerns me is that the ensemble means have been quite off as well.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Bastardi with a good wright up on why the models have been so inconsistent as of late.  Here is his write up today.

If you are going to sway with the models your heart is going to be troubled. I can't remember when I saw a set up like this for multiple weeks in December. I have seen it with overpowering cold, but the upper pattern, as I showed yesterday, is going to be something we see in mid and late winter, not around the holiday season. To be clear we are talking the threat of multiple far-reaching events, not just one and done. Large Holiday season storms the past 10 years ( after Dec 15). Have been wiped out by warming. But I think many of you have a chance for snow on snow ( perhaps even more snow). before Christmas

At least there is a chance, right?

But you have to ask yourself, how are we seeing model runs that are so crazy. I mean you should not have runs like the 0Z GFS ( which wasnt bad to me)

gfs_ensemble_all_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_136

 

followed by this 6 hours later

gfs_ensemble_all_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_136

 

 

7 day means should not go from this

gfs_ensemble_all_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_7da

 

to this

gfs_ensemble_all_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_7da

 

. That is indicating that there are real problems in the general sense with the entire situation. I suspect it has to do with the fact that no model can handle what appears to be a record-breaking standard deviation from the average cold over the tropics and the warmth we are seeing in the form of the block coming back in the high latitudes

gfs_ensemble_all_avg_globe_z500_norm_ano

 

 

The standard deviation chart reveals much.

If you are not involved in the climate fight and debunking the absurdity of the trapping hotspot idea. ( its abusrd because it is not happening and if its no happening its a gut punch to the runaway warming idea) you’re probably not even looking at the west-east distribution of negative anomalies in the entire equatorial regions of the world! Its wild

 

And its likely way overdone as its absurd looking. The euro has cool spots (no above normal) and is impressive in itself as far as the counter-climate argument, but for our situation it means there has to be massive problems with the US models if they are going so crazy on the cool over the tropics.

ecmwf_ensemble_avg_globe_z500_norm_anom_

 

This is been going on now for a year and a half and it’s really pronounced. ( again the euro is impressive but the GEFS is crazy) So this is one of these cases where Little Joey boy being involved in his Neanderthal-denying ways is looking at something and saying, "wait a minute how the heck is a model going to handle that? Its not. And by the way, it does have implications as to this whole catastrophic warming theory because remember that was based on trapping hotspots over the tropics. Think about it. ff you’re trapping “heat“ in the Arctic it’s actually a response to force cool underneath. So it would be in line with what you would look for if there was a response from nature. If you were trapping heat over the tropics, then you would have a huge problem with runaway warming. All you have to do is understand the basic nature of what temperature actually means. Trapping and accumulating the energy where wet-bulb is 80 is far far different from where they are near below. In any case, it is because I am looking at this aspect that I’m able to share with you the idea that perhaps if you look at that aspect, and it likely had a big effect on the hurricane season and the fact that these tropical cyclones in the Pacific and the Atlantic are shifting north and are not as long tracked and large as they used to be, you would then say how are they hack are models supposed to handle this? The Euro with the more reasonable look is more consistent in its run-to-run ensemble 7-day DNS.

For instance, do you think the MJO response would be similar if let’s say the heights over the tropics we’re near or above normal, then what I’m showing you here.with the GEFS runaway cooling? So you have these models and they’re trying desperately to figure things out. These inputs that come in are like someone that is asleep and keeps having a mosquito land on them so they slap themselves in the face. That’s what the models keep doing as far as individual events. So what I’ve been doing is painstakingly looking over map after map of situations I think are similar for this mid and late December and there are not may. We don’t have 10 below normal in New York City for December for instance. We have it colder than normal and we’ve had it colder than normal but we understand the variance that is taking place. The big key is that when I look at those hurricane analogs where the pattern is set up they look very very similar to the blend of the analogs. So what I’m doing is I’m trying to determine which analogs are closest during what time period Yes, I’m using the models but I’m understanding that both methods due to the extremity of the situation over the tropics are going to be limited, and Akin to walking in a meteorologist minefield. Seriously have you pulled out the equatorial background at 500 mbar like I showed above and looked at the standard deviations as much as you look at let’s say, run after run of this model or that model? Because I’m sitting here looking at this, going on holy cow this is amazing. Seriously meteorologically speaking it is amazing as I say a 2-foot snowstorm. We all gawk at that It’s rare but if you love the entire picture and also again involve the whole climate situation you have to look at this it and think: What is going on here and how is this affecting what we are seeing? Because of observations and yes modeling and everything else, this is the golden age of Weather. I would not cut myself short becoming emotionally invested in a model run whether it looks good or bad or whatever but instead stand back and look at the total picture. There are some things going on that truly are amazing. And while a lot of you get uncomfortable when I start talking climate, if I wasn’t so addicted to the past and climate ( blame my dad) and also encounter some of the things that I hear from people who I don’t believe are forecasting the weather but researching it, I would not be picking the stuff up! A classic case of an adversarial position helping with a potential advantage. By the way, I am thankful for the critics, and for the disagreement. If I have to go look and I’m wrong, then adapting the right idea makes me stronger. If in looking I find I'm right, I’m still stronger. When focused on the right things it’s a win-win situation. As long as the freedom to debate these things be at Weather or whatever, is allowed to be out there.

 

I may not have the answer, but I darn sure am looking at the questions

I’ll close with this: pray for snow.

Someone’s biased beliefs should not belong  in science.  All the evidence is against him.  But he can’t handle it.  Sounds familiar.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's literally been raining here off and on since Noon yesterday and it continues this morning.  Local reporting station is showing 1.62" of rain so far and we will add a bit more to that when all sudden done.  Very impressed and pleased to see a nice stratiform rain that is soaking up the Valley.  No runoff whatsoever and everything is soaking up in the ground.  The vegetation is loving this!

PHX Sky Harbor Airport received a record daily rainfall of 0.76" yesterday surpassing the old 1908 record of 0.69".

  • Like 1
  • Rain 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Congrats to Michigan in their win over Purdue 43/22. As has been the case several times this year the high yesterday was before sunrise when the high of 50 was reached at 4 AM the temperatures fell most of the day and the low of 22 was reached at 11:30 PM. The overnight low here in MBY reached 17 but is now up to 20. For today the average H/L is 40/28 the record high of 65 was recorded in 2012 and the record low of +6 was recorded way back in 1893. The largest snow fall of 5.9” was in 2009. The rest of the week looks ho-hum with temperatures near average and not much rain and very little if any snow.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Clinton, I give Bastardi credit to his work and the amount dedication he has to look at past weather events or patterns that line up with this year's DEC pattern.  I know that he can be stubborn, but what Wx enthusiast isn't?  Especially a guy like him who loves the weather and has to run a business and make accurate forecasts.  Outside of his known cold/snow bias during the Winter season, he does a very good job and explains his reasonings.  For this reason alone, his write up makes complete sense when you look up in the STRAT and the 500mb pattern.  Inside 5 days, the models can be wildly different and with storms showing up later in the week, it's going to be fascinating watching the evolution of this blocked up wx pattern.

Having said that, I always pay attn to what is happening up in the 10mb STRAT.  Low and Behold, we have ourselves what should be the seasons 1st SSW event over Siberia.

Day 1...cold strat

image.png

 

Day 5...So it begins...

image.png

 

Day 10...Boom!

image.png

 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/30/2022 at 6:08 AM, Tom said:

0z EPS starting to sniff out a wave along the thermal gradient pattern that'll set up over the MW somehere later next week.  Boy, that -NAO is a thing of beauty... @Clintonand KC peeps may need to watch the 12/7-12/9 period and up into the OHV.  I am noticing the EPS is pressing the cold air farther south the past couple runs starting early next week.

My attn then focus's in on the 12/11 - 12/13 period and beyond as the North American 500mb pattern is ripe with storms and cold to deliver the goods....Giddy Up!  The active part of the LRC is showing up and I think its going to provide some noteworthy winter storms come mid month.  I have envisioned an opined that a CO Low or Two during this upcoming period from 12/13 - 12/20.  @CentralNebWeather I think your overdue and the rest of the NE crew...#ShareTheWealth

 

image.gif

 

 

 

 

The lead wave 12/7 - 12/9  that I had in mind a few days ago is showing up for those across the I-80 corridor...

 

image.png

 

Then the storm train ramps up...glad to see this pattern fire up in the snow dept for many on here.  Let's do this!

image.gif

 

  • Like 3
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Tom said:

 

The lead wave 12/7 - 12/9  that I had in mind a few days ago is showing up for those across the I-80 corridor...

 

image.png

 

Then the storm train ramps up...glad to see this pattern fire up in the snow dept for many on here.  Let's do this!

image.gif

 

Look at what that lead wave is producing on the 6z Euro Control.

1670652000-EHBjYQDxnUs.png

Very nice job sniffing this one out and boy have the models struggled and are still struggling with this one.  I think we will see major changes with the other week 2 storms on the models in the next 2 to 3 days.  Last nights Euro was significantly different than it's previous runs.  The GFS just seems completely lost to me, (maybe they should quit upgrading it).  I think when it's all said and done we will look at the CMC and dang it did well.

@jaster220and @Niko looks like this one wants to ride the edge of the GOM ridge right into your yard.

  • Like 1
  • Excited 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Look at what that lead wave is producing on the 6z Euro Control.

1670652000-EHBjYQDxnUs.png

Very nice job sniffing this one out and boy have the models struggled and are still struggling with this one.  I think we will see major changes with the other week 2 storms on the models in the next 2 to 3 days.  Last nights Euro was significantly different than it's previous runs.  The GFS just seems completely lost to me, (maybe they should quit upgrading it).  I think when it's all said and done we will look at the CMC and dang it did well.

Yes...indeed!  The GFS is throwing out some bazaar runs and its ensembles are WAY to warm over the Eastern CONUS Week 1-2.  I expect them to correct and pick up on the blocking pattern and the reversal in the +EPO spike.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Yes...indeed!  The GFS is throwing out some bazaar runs and its ensembles are WAY to warm over the Eastern CONUS Week 1-2.  I expect them to correct and pick up on the blocking pattern and the reversal in the +EPO spike.

I appreciate the fact that they are trying to make the GFS better, they clearly see they have a problem with it but they have made it almost unusable in the long range. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The system later this week is something to watch for Iowa.  Models are struggling to pin it down, though.  The GFS has trended toward a rainer here, but I don't trust it.  Other models are more suppressed.  If we get end up with snow, it will likely be wet and sloppy.  I'm more than ready for something interesting to track.

  • Like 6

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After yesterday's balmy temps and rain we are back to below normal temps but sunny skies for both today and tomorrow. We then warm back up to above normal before potentially cooling down and even a model shows some significant snow in Chester County by week's end. That said there is only one model "The European" that shows any such event. No one should take that as a forecast...just a period to keep an eye on. As I mentioned earlier with the change to more consistent colder weather expect to hear of snow or rumor of snows between now and the end of the month.
Our record high for today is 71 degrees from 1998. The record low is 6 above zero from 1940. The daily rain record is 1.54" from 1900. The daily snow record is 10.0" from today in 1957.image.png.a7060285ca1ba6ba33d2b163308dbfaa.png
  • Like 1

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Look at what that lead wave is producing on the 6z Euro Control.

1670652000-EHBjYQDxnUs.png

Very nice job sniffing this one out and boy have the models struggled and are still struggling with this one.  I think we will see major changes with the other week 2 storms on the models in the next 2 to 3 days.  Last nights Euro was significantly different than it's previous runs.  The GFS just seems completely lost to me, (maybe they should quit upgrading it).  I think when it's all said and done we will look at the CMC and dang it did well.

@jaster220and @Niko looks like this one wants to ride the edge of the GOM ridge right into your yard.

Euro says I may owe the GFS an apology, lol. Thx Clinton for sharing what JB was showing wrt models having a hard time in this situation.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Look at what that lead wave is producing on the 6z Euro Control.

1670652000-EHBjYQDxnUs.png

Very nice job sniffing this one out and boy have the models struggled and are still struggling with this one.  I think we will see major changes with the other week 2 storms on the models in the next 2 to 3 days.  Last nights Euro was significantly different than it's previous runs.  The GFS just seems completely lost to me, (maybe they should quit upgrading it).  I think when it's all said and done we will look at the CMC and dang it did well.

@jaster220and @Niko looks like this one wants to ride the edge of the GOM ridge right into your yard.

Make it happen Ma Nature!!!!  Luv it!! 😎

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

Look at what that lead wave is producing on the 6z Euro Control.

1670652000-EHBjYQDxnUs.png

Very nice job sniffing this one out and boy have the models struggled and are still struggling with this one.  I think we will see major changes with the other week 2 storms on the models in the next 2 to 3 days.  Last nights Euro was significantly different than it's previous runs.  The GFS just seems completely lost to me, (maybe they should quit upgrading it).  I think when it's all said and done we will look at the CMC and dang it did well.

@jaster220and @Niko looks like this one wants to ride the edge of the GOM ridge right into your yard.

That bullseye is right over my IA home and I'll be down there Wed-Sun.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/3/2022 at 5:01 PM, Tom said:

BAMWx's take on snowfall using their Top Analogs...

image.jpeg

 

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

Look at what that lead wave is producing on the 6z Euro Control.

1670652000-EHBjYQDxnUs.png

Very nice job sniffing this one out and boy have the models struggled and are still struggling with this one.  I think we will see major changes with the other week 2 storms on the models in the next 2 to 3 days.  Last nights Euro was significantly different than it's previous runs.  The GFS just seems completely lost to me, (maybe they should quit upgrading it).  I think when it's all said and done we will look at the CMC and dang it did well.

@jaster220and @Niko looks like this one wants to ride the edge of the GOM ridge right into your yard.

Thought about BAMwx's map when I saw that map. At least The Mitt part. Been out walking & shopping downtown Plymouth today and the below freezing windchills  making it feel like winter here. Frozen puddles struggling to melt is a good sign we're getting close to the time when snow could come and stick.

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

It does appear as though northern Iowa has the best shot at good snow from this system.

image.thumb.png.92b782025660c934e42faa37b43dda41.png

Trending in the right direction though. Colder air showing up and snowing further south than previous runs.  We always ride the line along Hwy 30 and I80 here between rain/snow. Why should this one be different? Lol. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...