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December 2022 Observations and Discussion


Iceresistance

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Happy Monday!  I'm waking up to a Dense Fog Advisory where it is quite rare to see in the dry desert regions.  While it may not be as rare during the Winter season, I think this is a "First" for me to witness Dense Fog in the Valley of the Sun!  Kinda cool to see Fog on the hwy cams.  The air has that moist, desert smell to it...I'm sure your asking yourself what I mean by the desert "smell".  You gotta experience it to be able to understand what I mean by it.

Interestingly, we are not alone on the Foggy start to the 1st full week of DEC....the Gulf Coast is sharing in that dept.

Dec 5th NWS Alert Map.png

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A frosty start to the day with teens in the lower spots below 450ft. A sunny Monday - but after that a pretty unsettled week ahead. Mild but wet weather through Thursday then chilling down to normal weather for what looks like an extended stretch. By the time we get to the weekend and into next week we may have some chances of some wintry precipitation.
The record high for today is 75 degrees from 2001. Our record low is 10 degrees set back in 1926. The daily rain mark is 3.27" from 1993. The daily snow record was the 8.5" that fell today back in 2003.
image.png.7a819f4fc9ae7c307f4f826048d19aae.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Yesterday was a sunny day with 88% of possible sunshine. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 38/21 and there was no rain or snow fall. The overnight low here in MBY so far for today is the current reading of 25. The official low at the airport so far is a warmer 28. For today the average H/L is 39/27 the record high of 69 was set in 2001. That 69 is the record high for December at Grand Rapids. The record low of +4 was set in 1964 and the record snow fall amount of 7.7” was set in 1991. We'll see a few low chances for precipitation (rain to the south, wintry mix to the north) Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evening. Slightly better chances for precipitation arrive Thursday into Thursday night as a stronger system moves though the region. Temperatures will stay fairly steady through this week with highs consistently staying in the 30s to low 40s.

 

 

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54 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Can someone much more knowledgeable than me explain why the -AO and -NAO aren't delivering nice shots of truly cold air right now and why they're aren't forecast to do so (at least by the GFS)?  Is it that MoFo in the Gulf of Mexico?  The entire first half of December --at least -- is going to be above normal for KC again this year.  

I think the GOM ridge is keeping it bottled up.  When it moves out the artic air should spill down.

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1 hour ago, sumweatherdude said:

Can someone much more knowledgeable than me explain why the -AO and -NAO aren't delivering nice shots of truly cold air right now and why they're aren't forecast to do so (at least by the GFS)?  Is it that MoFo in the Gulf of Mexico?  The entire first half of December --at least -- is going to be above normal for KC again this year.  

It's a shifting culprit; in the short-term it's a function of a Rex Block type of pattern off the West Coast that encourages zonal flow downstream, acting to keep the tropospheric polar vortex from pushing too far south. An emergent -PNA (which forms the southern component of the Rex Block type feature) doesn't help matters either.

 

Moving towards mid-month, the -NAO ridge retrogrades a bit west, paradoxically allowing the Northeast to be milder than the rest of the country and displacing the best chances for colder weather further to the west, in the heart of the Central. A modest eastward extension of the Pacific jet will help turn the PNA positive, which should present the Plains/MW with the best opportunity for cold weather in the back half of the month.

 

Annotated 500mb anomaly images for hour 0 and Hour 354 from the 0z Euro ENS attached to show each component.

hour 0.png

hour 354.png

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7 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z Euro is starting to show a colder storm on 12th and 13th.  For some this could mean snow on top of snow.

1671019200-MJcJoEx1Flg.png

The EPS for that time period:

1671062400-QgIHjqGTwM8.png

The system that the CPC was high-lighting

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

EPS control run shows almost two feet here at 10:1 ratios, which we normally seem to be in the 14-15:1 ratio so that's like.... A whole lotta snow!!!

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-ncentus-total_snow_10to1-1148800.png

Don't fall for these maps😉 They look great, but even up in these parts where lake effect can pile up quick these don't verify often if ever, but I sure hope it does!

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The latest CPC long range outlook is calling for wetter but warmer than average for a good chuck of the rest of December. Here is the latest 6 to 10 day outlook
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
And the latest 8 to 14 day outlook.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

If this plays out it will not be good for all of the snow lovers for a good part of December.

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15 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The latest CPC long range outlook is calling for wetter but warmer than average for a good chuck of the rest of December. Here is the latest 6 to 10 day outlook
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
And the latest 8 to 14 day outlook.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

If this plays out it will not be good for all of the snow lovers for a good part of December.

Sounds like the new normal December around the midwest.  

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6 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Sounds like the new normal December around the midwest.  

It's now "see you in Feb" again. Trying to remember the last time a hyped pattern actually delivered here but drawing a blank. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Got to give a shout out to good ole Jim Flowers. He mentioned in one of his videos about storms in three. That storm next week is showing up very well on all major models! I'm excited for next week. It also matches up very well with the negative tilted trough back in Nov. 3rd-5th. This storm I believe will be the signature storm of this years LRC. 

 

https://fb.watch/hew6a05r08/

 

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

First three images are precip totals from 10/25, 10/26, 10/29, and 10/30 respectively. Also included the 00z GFS at the end which so far seems to have caved at least partially to the snowier solutions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That would mean the big dog comes a week after; right around the winter solstice. Here is what I have saved for that Nov. 3rd-5th storm that dropped 2-4" of rain in KC!

327266309_nov.32022.gif

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Ugh.  The Canadian is now on its own next week.  All other models (ICON/GFS/Euro) are well north and have all rain for Iowa.  For Cedar Rapids, none of them have a flake of snow from either of the next two systems.  🤦‍♂️

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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^^ GFS (it took some heat on here with system for late week, but seems like it did the best with ALL rain for IA) -- is now even further N sending rain all the way to the Canadian border for next weeks system.  Not good trends-- such a waste of a dynamic system(s)... Too much blocking??

prateptype_cat.conus.png

 

 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I don't know... The skeptic in me always says 'it'll find a way to not work out' but there is fairly widespread agreement, even among ensemble suites, on substantial snowfall for quite a few people on here. Pair that with the LRC and that period of 10/25-10/30 where there was 1-3 inch qpf that fell across a good chunk of the eastern CONUS a couple times. Assuming it's around a 49 day cycle that puts these series of storms smack dab in the middle of next week, which I think the models are now picking up on.

I think any place that has the ability to get cold enough should score some serious snowfall. I am cautiously optimistic. 

First three images are precip totals from 10/25, 10/26, 10/29, and 10/30 respectively. Also included the 00z GFS at the end which so far seems to have caved at least partially to the snowier solutions.

10-25 precip.png

10-26 precip.png

10-29 precip.png

10-30 precip.png

00z gem.png

00z eps.png

00z geps.png

00z gfs.png

 

5 hours ago, gabel23 said:

That would mean the big dog comes a week after; right around the winter solstice. Here is what I have saved for that Nov. 3rd-5th storm that dropped 2-4" of rain in KC!

327266309_nov.32022.gif

On top of the snow chances you guys are right on top of check out how far south the 0z Euro Control is taking the cold air by the 19th.  All the way into the GOM!

1671451200-inpGhqxCId0.png

CMC Mean lines up well also:

1671451200-LJibl2gUXBw.png

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

^^ GFS (it took some heat on here with system for late week, but seems like it did the best with ALL rain for IA) -- is now even further N sending rain all the way to the Canadian border for next weeks system.  Not good trends-- such a waste of a dynamic system(s)... Too much blocking??

prateptype_cat.conus.png

 

 

Koodo's to the GFS/GEFS as it appears it "saw" the rise in the EPO much better than the other globals, however, it is now playing "catch up" towards the reversal in the EPO and PNA.  Unfortunately, as a snow lover, we all want to see snow on snow scenarios but how often does that work out early in the season??  It is an ugly and ill-timed spike in the +EPO which is NO BUENO for most of our Sub!  I know it sucks, but this is going to pay big dividends as the northern US fills up with Snow. 

Think about this scenario, if the 0z GEFS/GEPS are right by DEC 15th most of the northern U.S. will have a snow pack...

sn10_acc-mean-imp.conus.png

 

0z GEPS...signing the same tune through DEC 15th...

sn10_acc-mean-imp.conus.png

 

Then, here comes the Arctic Attack as the EPO/PNA both flip into more favorable cold to infiltrate the U.S...

image.png

 

image.png

 

0z EPS agrees...Fill up the northern U.S. with white gold and then the foundation is laid for the Return  of Ol' Man Winter farther south...

 

image.png

 

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Good morning. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 42/26 there was no rain or snow fall, and of course there is no snow on the ground. There was 17% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was 35 and the official low was 36. At the current time it is cloudy and 38 degrees here at my house. At the airport there is drizzle being reported. For today the average H/L is 39/27, The record high of 63 was set in 1951 and the record low of 2 was set in 1964. The record snow fall amount of 7.0” was set in 1919.

Over the next several days we'll see low chances for precipitation (mostly rain but possible wintry mix to the north) Tuesday afternoon/evening, then slightly better chances for precipitation will present itself Thursday night into Friday as a stronger system moves though the region. Temperatures will stay fairly steady throughout this week with highs consistently staying in the 30s to low 40s.

At this time water level of Lake Michigan and Huron (hydrologically a single lake) has fallen 9” from one year ago. This level now stands at 5” above the Dec average (since 1918). Seasonally, water levels typically drop during the autumn and early winter, when relatively cold air blowing over relatively warm water leads to strong evaporation. Lowest water, on average, occurs in February.

 

 

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A stretch of unsettled weather starts today with rain and wet snow chances every day through Saturday. Temps start mild but trend colder by Thursday night when we could see some mixing with snow. We should dry out by Saturday afternoon.
The record high for today is 73 degrees from 1998. The record low is 8 degrees above zero from 1902. Record rain is the 1.47" in 2013. Record daily snow is the 6.7" that fell today in 1910.
image.png.7deaf99998b89791f985396fcd707951.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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For all the LRC followers, I've had my eyes set on the pattern post 15th when the last in a series of storms hits the Texarkana Region...#STJ

The 1st, of what may be 2 (maybe more), CO LOW's that I've been waiting for the models to "see" are showing up.  Fortunately, for precip reasons, the 1st CO Low will become a hard cutter towards the W GL's. @CentralNebWeatherand NE peeps will see moisture outta this one.  Maybe some back side snow??  Time will tell.

0z EPS is showing this pattern evolution quite nicely and its been consistent...is there an OHV Cutter, or maybe one of those Big Dogs lurking Pre-Winter Solstice???

 

image.gif

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Hope all this snow on the maps comes to fruition. I just am really worried with how dry the fall was, and how everything up here forecast wise has underperformed to date. Very different from last year where at this point everything that was forecasted ended up over achieving or increasing totals as events neared. We shall see, but I am on the pessimistic side at this point this year. Don't like the feel of it.

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