December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Hope all this snow on the maps comes to fruition. I just am really worried with how dry the fall was, and how everything up here forecast wise has underperformed to date. Very different from last year where at this point everything that was forecasted ended up over achieving or increasing totals as events neared. We shall see, but I am on the pessimistic side at this point this year. Don't like the feel of it.

Aside from clippers, LES and your occasional cutter or PAC Hybrid, the N tier of our Sun will have the bank on this months bigger snows bc as we get deeper in the season, Canadian HP will be suppressing systems up your way and keep you cold, but lessor on the synoptic side of bigger storms.  Just My 2 cents.  Hope you build up a good base bud!

[Tom]

CFSv2 Weeklies and Euro Weeklies trying to suggest the MJO won't be much of a component to the wx pattern in the month ahead....this is always one of the bigger signals you look for as a forecaster so its actually a good thing bc it can throw a wrench into any snow lovers dream.  #NullPhase

 

 

[Niko]

Feels really pleasant outside, considering temps are averaging at or slightly above N. No real arctic air intrusions for the time being, so any storms we do get, we will have to have our fingers crossed for getting some snow outta of it.

[Niko]

Just saw my forecast for next week and it shows temps flirting w/ 50F (early in the week). Wow! Break out the shorts. Talk about balmy weather in December. Great weather for decorating outdoors. We should be thanking Ma Nature for this.

[Andie]

4 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Me and @Andie are currently expecting severe storms Next Monday, December 12th. 

I’ll get ready!   Got any details yet?  
So-far it’s spring-like. Warmer than I care for in December.  
I’m ready for winter.

[tStacsh]

32 minutes ago, Niko said:

Just saw my forecast for next week and it shows temps flirting w/ 50F (early in the week). Wow! Break out the shorts. Talk about balmy weather in December. Great weather for decorating outdoors. We should be thanking Ma Nature for this.

GFS would have near record temps ahead of the big storm in the Plains.  Outside of Friday's wet snow potential, It looks warmer than normal for a while.  The cold air just can't win right now.    Major fail by all the long range modeling the cold.   

Our forecasters a week ago were saying this week was almost a lock for a very cold pattern. None of that came true.  Not even close.  It's tough to be a forecaster.   These models get worse every year.  

[Niko]

5 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

GFS would have near record temps ahead of the big storm in the Plains.  Outside of Friday's wet snow potential, It looks warmer than normal for a while.  The cold air just can't win right now.    Major fail by all the long range modeling the cold.   

Our forecasters a week ago were saying this week was almost a lock for a very cold pattern. None of that came true.  Not even close.  It's tough to be a forecaster.   These models get worse every year.  

Its unfortunate, especially this time of the year, where you really want it to be cold and snowy. But yes, it looks darn balmy for at least all of next week. When I say balmy, its just near to slightly above average, nothing majorly above, but that stills feels awesome considering this time of the year.

Mind you, my highs were projected to be in the 20s this week. Look at it now. Major fail as you say. I think I need to find an old timer from the past and have them tell me the long range weather forecast, instead of relying on weather models. I think my chances are higher from being more accurate.

[bud2380]

The GFS says - not so fast on any winter/snow plans.  Looks like those 384 hour snow maps are gonna be wrong. LOL. 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Might go storm chasing next week vs using a snowblower as we get dry slotted in Omaha 

[GDR]

I’d ride with the new king GFS until further notice

[bud2380]

I'm no expert on teleconnections.  It seems like more teleconnections are created every day, and how they all interact seems like anyone's guess.  But what I have heard repeatedly over the years is we want a negative AO and negative NAO.  And with this storm coming up on roughly the 13th, we have a negative NAO forecast, and a deeply negative AO, so why is this storm cutting so far west and so far north and bringing in record heat in front of it?  If someone who understands teleconnections better than me has a good explanation please let me know.  

 

GFS NAO forecast

GFS AO forecast

 

And yet we have the GFS riding this thing into far western MN.  Just curious what element from the teleconnections we are either missing here, or is over riding the seemingly good deeply negative AO forecast we have.  

 

I know nothing is absolute in weather, but this one just doesn't add up to me. 

 

[GDR]

Looks like will have to wait another two weeks after the gfs run to get things going. Not the Dec 2000 I was hoping for.

[tStacsh]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I'm no expert on teleconnections.  It seems like more teleconnections are created every day, and how they all interact seems like anyone's guess.  But what I have heard repeatedly over the years is we want a negative AO and negative NAO.  And with this storm coming up on roughly the 13th, we have a negative NAO forecast, and a deeply negative AO, so why is this storm cutting so far west and so far north and bringing in record heat in front of it?  If someone who understands teleconnections better than me has a good explanation please let me know.  

 

GFS NAO forecast

GFS AO forecast

 

And yet we have the GFS riding this thing into far western MN.  Just curious what element from the teleconnections we are either missing here, or is over riding the seemingly good deeply negative AO forecast we have.  

 

I know nothing is absolute in weather, but this one just doesn't add up to me. 

 

Still a ways out, but man all the models are pretty much the same.  Pretty decent blizzard for the Dakotas as we stand right now.  

[Clinton]

Noticeable shift SE on the GEFS from the 6z for the 12th - 14th.  Better for Nebraska and Iowa. 

[bud2380]

2 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Still a ways out, but man all the models are pretty much the same.  Pretty decent blizzard for the Dakotas as we stand right now.  

No doubt, I've seen enough of these to know, I'm out of the game on this one, but just trying to understand it scientifically.  Maybe this is just one of those ones that defies what we know and understand about teleconnections.  Or maybe models are still playing catch up, who knows.  I'm at least encouraged by an active pattern, but anymore in east central Iowa, we just rarely see all the elements come together just right here.  

[Grizzcoat]

As for the potential heat, it's one run. 

But the major storm cutting way W and bringing rain to US/Canadian border I think may be the result of too much blocking. It's the only thing that makes sense to me.

[GDR]

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, GDR said:

I’d ride with the new king GFS until further notice

If I remember it did pretty good last winter compared to the Euro.

[OmahaSnowFan]

If it isn’t going to snow, let’s have it storm.

 

[bud2380]

Euro doesn't even get to MN with the SLP, cuts up through SD.  

 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Euro doesn't even get to MN with the SLP, cuts up through SD.  

 

Wish I had a $1 for every time I've seen this map in our history.  Storms goes over my house and we're dry slotted.  Wash, rinse, repeat.  Not even asking for snow at this point, just some type of precipitation.  

[Iceresistance]

3 hours ago, Andie said:

I’ll get ready!   Got any details yet?  
So-far it’s spring-like. Warmer than I care for in December.  
I’m ready for winter.

I'd rather have a wet winter if we can't have snow. 

[Andie]

54 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I'd rather have a wet winter if we can't have snow. 

Yeah.  It's fine.  I'll take all the moisture we can get. 

I little snow on a weekend maybe, if I can order it!

[tStacsh]

4 hours ago, bud2380 said:

The GFS says - not so fast on any winter/snow plans.  Looks like those 384 hour snow maps are gonna be wrong. LOL. 

 

This is the new normal for sure.  I just looked back at the last 7 years and we've pushed 60 degrees almost every december.   10+ days with highs well in to the 50's.  

[jaster220]

SN*W happens!  Oops, pretty sure this was a miss:

.UPDATE...
Issued at 453 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2022

Moderate snow coming down under a mesoscale band just north of Big
Rapids with radar trends showing potential for this band to
persist as snow extends back into Wisconsin. Thermal profiles
indicate aggregates with some riming potential. With air temps of
32F currently at Big Rapids and Cadillac suggesting the ground in
Osceola County will be able to accumulate snow without much
melting on contact so 1 to 3 inches can be expected there along
with some light accums on untreated roads.

[Clinton]

Nice write up today by Jeff Penner who has worked with Gary Lezak for years.  He discusses the active pattern and the storms that have been discussed here recently.  He seems optimistic about a possibility of a white Christmas for KC.  

https://www.kshb.com/weather/weather-blog-a-series-of-storm-systems-chance-of-a-white-christmas

[OmahaSnowFan]

Hellooooo dry slot!!

[The Snowman]

Using the latest ECMWF ENS 500mb anomaly Hovmoller as a guide, it's likely we see a shift in the NH pattern after 12/15 or so, as the Pacific jet stream changes from its current significantly retracted phase to a modestly more extended state (i.e. the Pac. jet extends into the same longitudes as the central Aleutian Islands rather than its current position in longitudes west of the islands). This means a change in the northeast Pacific basin from ridging around the Aleutian Islands - provoking the negative PNA pattern we're seeing thru mid-month - to ridging in the Gulf of Alaska and western U.S. This should create a blend of a -EPO/+PNA pattern, though in both cases the result is a delivery of cold Canadian air into the Central U.S.

 

Whereas the current -PNA pattern favors Central U.S. storm tracks to be shifted north, the post-12/15 pattern likely favors a reversal whereby cold Canadian air will have a much easier time pressing southwards and suppressing storm tracks. It's worth watching to see if models struggle to latch on to this change in regime and potentially take on a northern storm track bias for a bit, simply because this otherwise-subtle change in the Pacific has significant downstream impacts in the CONUS.

 

Unless the MJO returns to a coherent state at some point before the new year (looking unlikely), and unless global angular momentum jumps back towards positive territory (even more unlikely, especially as we maintain Equatorial t-storm activity in the western Indian Ocean thru early-January), the Central is likely to end the year on a cold note. Don't be surprised if the first half of Dec. favors snow in the northern Plains / Upper MW while the back half shifts the snow focus to the Central Plains / broad I-80 corridor.

[Clinton]

5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

This ain't half bad.

Looks like the GEFS is zeroing in on you.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Looks like the GEFS is zeroing in on you.

The Blocking across Canada is growing and quite impressive!   This is going to end up being a monster CO Low...maybe a west/east occluding Blizzard???  This looks to be a multi-faceted storm with severe wx and a raging blizzard.   Looking interesting to say the least.

[Tom]

It all starts way up in the STRAT....0z Euro showcasing what will be the seasons first legit SSW event of the season.  BTW, every global model now is significantly colder post 15th after the Blizzard departs mid next week.  Buckle up!

D 5....

 

D 10...

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

It all starts way up in the STRAT....0z Euro showcasing what will be the seasons first legit SSW event of the season.  BTW, every global model now is significantly colder post 15th after the Blizzard departs mid next week.  Buckle up!

D 5....

 

D 10...

Awesome pattern about to start with several storms before Christmas.  EPO will be heading back negative soon.  

[westMJim]

Good morning. Yesterday was yet another warmer than average day with an official H/L of 42/36, there was a trace of rain fall but no snow fall and there is no snow on the ground. There was also no sunshine as well. The overnight low both here and at GRR was 31 and the current temperature here in MBY is 32. For today the average H/L is 39/27. The record high was 62 in 1946 and the record low was -4 in 1972 the record snow fall of 7.7” fell in 1909.

The rest of the week into the weekend will see a chance for precipitation Thursday evening through Friday. There will be another chance for precipitation Monday. Temperatures will stay fairly steady through this week with highs consistently staying in the upper 30s to low 40s with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

While it looks get much much colder just beyond this period, most of next week looks warm and wet. Currently a fairly strong storm is expected to move through the Great Lakes midweek and we could see well above normal temperatures just ahead of that system. Highs in the 50s are in play. Much colder weather follows this system, and there could be an extended period of lake snows

 

[chescowxman]

We have picked up 1.12" of rain since yesterday morning. With 0.11" since midnight. Some additional showers are possible and continued mild today. The main change to the longer term forecast is a prolonged period of normal to slightly below temperatures for mid to late December with even some wet snow chances toward Saturday morning.

Our record high for today is 78 degrees set in 1998. The record low is 1 above zero set in 1926. The daily rain mark is the 2.04" that fell in 1914. Daily snow record is the 8.0" that fell today in 1959.

[westMJim]

Grand Rapids (along with many other locations) has already see a high of 50 or better. There is a chance that we could get into the 50's once again next week. While very mild for December it is not at all unusual. In the past 30 years it had not reached at least 50 in December only 5 times. The last time was in 2009 with the highest reading that December of 49. The coldest maximum for any December in the last 30 years was in 2000 when the highest for the month was just 37.

[MIKEKC]

Arctic air, where are you? We need you in this pattern very soon, I know its still fall, but, come on, lets get going. Give me hope. Even tomorrow's snow for you lucky folks up north of KC will fall in 30-33 air temperatures. 

How do we have a -AO and -NAO and storm cutting so hard to the NW??? MAYBE we get that storm to dig a bit more in future model runs. 

Lezak used that excuse all the time when a predicted storm didn't materialize in one cycle or another, he would say, the storm missed KC because the AO and NAO were so positive. I would argue with him all the time on this...SO, what gives?  

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Arctic air, where are you? We need you in this pattern very soon, I know its still fall, but, come on, lets get going. Give me hope. Even tomorrow's snow for you lucky folks up north of KC will fall in 30-33 air temperatures. 

How do we have a -AO and -NAO and storm cutting so hard to the NW??? MAYBE we get that storm to dig a bit more in future model runs. 

Lezak used that excuse all the time when a predicted storm didn't materialize in one cycle or another, he would say, the storm missed KC because the AO and NAO were so positive. I would argue with him all the time on this...SO, what gives?  

The spike in the EPO going + which creates a zonal flow and brings in Pacific Air.  It is forecast to reverse in a week and then we will see the cold bleed back down south from the Upper MW.  I’m still very optimistic that we will track 2 or maybe 3 big storms by Christmas.

[Grizzcoat]

1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

Arctic air, where are you? We need you in this pattern very soon, I know its still fall, but, come on, lets get going. Give me hope. Even tomorrow's snow for you lucky folks up north of KC will fall in 30-33 air temperatures. 

How do we have a -AO and -NAO and storm cutting so hard to the NW??? MAYBE we get that storm to dig a bit more in future model runs. 

Lezak used that excuse all the time when a predicted storm didn't materialize in one cycle or another, he would say, the storm missed KC because the AO and NAO were so positive. I would argue with him all the time on this...SO, what gives?  

Just a few hours ago in ND. Certified Arctic blast even by JAN standards. Several locations near/broke records this AM.  Devils Lake for example- old record was -19F in 1958.

[tStacsh]

On 11/29/2022 at 9:20 AM, tStacsh said:

You already know what's going to happen.  There is going to be a big snowstorm just north of us, then it's just going to get very cold and dry for 7-10 days.  Then another mini-storm is going to go south.  Then the next storm will bring in a warmer pattern as it misses just north again while we get rain.  Then boom, Green Christmas.  

Missed on the very cold prediction.  Otherwise...

[Beltrami Island]

16 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Just a few hours ago in ND. Certified Arctic blast even by JAN standards. Several locations near/broke records this AM.  Devils Lake for example- old record was -19F in 1958.

50f temp swing to near or above freezing starting this morning to Friday.

Not the point of your post, but those record highs for DVL just highlight some terrible years for winter weather enthusiasts in the north central US:

97-98, 98-99, 99-00, 02-03, 11-12, 15-16,