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December 2022 Observations and Discussion


Iceresistance

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37 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not crazy about this trend to hook next week's storm to the NW. GFS gives me scraps even up here. GEM still shows 6 inches but that's a far drop from previous runs and I am right on the line between high amounts and rain. Hope this trend reverses a bit and we see a SE trend over the next few days. Still plenty of time for things to iron out better.

That GFS run was crazy with storm after storm.  Who gets the snow is still a crap shoot at this point.  

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16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I sort of view the system around the 15th as a transition system with a transition period from the 15th-20th.  Then after about the 20th, things should become more favorable for wintry wx south of I-80.  

Yup, its the storm the breaks the pattern...I'm digging the amount of Snow being shown for the mtn's of AZ and 4 corners.  This is just the beginning of a fun DEC for this region.

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1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

The models went insane for my area, the GFS dumps me with snow, even @Andie gets some in DFW on the week before Christmas. 

That would be an uncommon event.  I recall a decent ice storm on Thanksgiving in the mid 90's in North Texas but snow on Christmas or near it is not anything we expect at all. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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33 minutes ago, Andie said:

That would be an uncommon event.  I recall a decent ice storm on Thanksgiving in the mid 90's in North Texas but snow on Christmas or near it is not anything we expect at all. 

18z GFS is even crazier! I get down to Below Zero before Christmas!

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Quite the train of storm systems coming this week for OK. Also, the extended is suddenly looking interesting. A very good signal on all global models for a lot of cold air coming south with snow chances.

ecmwf-ensemble-KTUL-indiv_qpf_24-0414400.pngecmwf-ensemble-KTUL-indiv_snow_24-0414400.pnggfs-deterministic-conus-thickness_mslp_prcp6hr-1624000.png

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Oh. My. Goodness! This winter has the serious potential when this shows up on the models!

 

 

We certainly need a -EPO like never before it seems. +EPO is trash for exciting wx

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

We certainly need a -EPO like never before it seems. +EPO is trash for exciting wx

The EPO has a significant mid latitude influence for North America as it either Opens or Closes the Door to the warmer PAC ocean air.  Our region can deal with a neutral EPO, but not a +EPO as it voids of any arctic air intrusion unless you live in the Upper MW or over the U.S./Canadian border.  With that being said, get read for a very cold finish to DEC, esp when nature lays down some Snow before Christmas around the Lower Lakes.  I got my eyes on 2 systems for the S MW/OHV/GL's prior to the Christmas Holiday.

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Good morning. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 46/31 for yet another well above average temperature day at Grand Rapids. There was a reported trace of rain fall and there was no snow fall, and of course there remains no snow on the ground. There was 42% of possible sunshine. The overnight low and current temperature both here and at GRR so far is 33. For today the average H/L is 38/27 the record high of 64 was set in 1966 the record low of +2 was set in 2005, the record snow fall for the day is 4.5”set in 1937.

Today we should have mostly cloudy skies are with highs in the 30s. Snow is expected to spread across our area by midafternoon Friday and continue into mid evening before ending. Snowfall will range from a half inch to 2 inches. Temperatures will be near to just above freezing as the snow begins to fall. Since it has been above freezing lately, the snow is expected to stick mostly on grassy surfaces but not too much on area roads. Even so the afternoon and evening commute Friday will likely be slower.

While it could get much colder just beyond this period, most of next week looks warm and wet. Currently a fairly strong storm is expected to move through the Great Lakes midweek and we could be well above normal temperatures just ahead of that system. Highs in the 50s are in play. Much colder weather could follow this system, there could be some lake effect snow.

 

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0z EPS and the rest of the globals are finally in agreement that the North American 500mb pattern will be much more favorable for winter wx in the mid lat's, esp when it begins to count during the holiday season.  The talk about the EPO and its influence is notable with the Blizzard next week cutting NW, however, post Blitz the upper level pattern will begin to "press" the Arctic Air (it will be Brutal for some on here) south and "marry" with the #STJ.  

 

Take a gander at the EPO that is forecast to be off the charts mid month...

 

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The modeling is beginning to lay down more Snow across the Plains/S MW/OHV as we approach the Winter Solstice period and beyond.  

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I'm really diggin' what I'm seeing for our members across the south and west into So Cal...The STJ is going to Play....get'r ready!

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I got heat for this a while back prior to the LRC setting up, but I'd like to remind a special someone on here that the Signs where clear from the "get go".  

CFSv2 DEC precip forecast....look closely and there is a "divine sign"...

CFSv2 DEC Precip_Sign of The Cross.gif

 

0z EPS precip anomaly is almost a carbon copy, heck, by the time we finish off DEC, I would imagine more of the nation will end up with AN precip, esp down south compared to the CFSv2 map above. 

image.png

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Today looks to be our last above normal temp day for quite a while. Our temperatures looks to average near to below normal for most days between now and Christmas Day. There will also be multiple chances of some wintry weather. The first chance will be some snow mixing in with rain on Sunday into Sunday night and again on Wednesday. Mainly higher spots in the county over 550 ft will have chances to see some minor small accumulations on non-paved surfaces.
The record high for today is 70 degrees from 1980. Our record low is 12 degrees from 1959. Daily rain record is the 1.94" from 1978. The daily snow record is 4.7" from 1917.
image.png.cad42c0767d413bdc592489a78c828a0.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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The GFS is really clinging on to the cold air in Minnesota in particular on this run as opposed to previous runs that brought warm air way up north.  The result a lot more snow.  Interesting development, especially from the GFS which seems to have trouble with thermals in these borderline situations.  

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

The EPO has a significant mid latitude influence for North America as it either Opens or Closes the Door to the warmer PAC ocean air.  Our region can deal with a neutral EPO, but not a +EPO as it voids of any arctic air intrusion unless you live in the Upper MW or over the U.S./Canadian border.  With that being said, get read for a very cold finish to DEC, esp when nature lays down some Snow before Christmas around the Lower Lakes.  I got my eyes on 2 systems for the S MW/OHV/GL's prior to the Christmas Holiday.

EPO is even more a deal maker/breaker in our warm earth era imho. On the bolded part, I hope you're right bro. I've heard '83 bantered about by somebody (JB??). Looking at that list of Dec Record temps that @Grizzcoat posted, I noticed how the decade of the 80's  held (12) of the dates. A very impressive 39% of the days! '89 was the other multi-day record cold Dec. For SMI, both of those were too cold, i.e. suppressed storm track. Dec 2000 ('51 too?) is the gold standard for combined cold and snow. Two years before my move to Marshall, but I have estimated that locale scored 42-43" in Dec of 2000. Pretty much identical to Jan of 2014's total.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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29 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

That little peach spot over KC is literally over my neighborhood.  If we got half of this, I'd be beyond thrilled.  Heck, even a third.  Given the range, I expect the next run of the GFS to show nothing.  

snku_acc.us_c.png

The 18th,19th and 23rd,24th give or take a day should be our next opportunities for snow.  Doesn't look like there will be a +spike with the EPO to mess it up this time.  All teleconnections look good as of today.  Lezak on the radio this morning gave KC a 75% chance of a white Christmas, it certainly looks possible this year.

 

 

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38 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

That little peach spot over KC is literally over my neighborhood.  If we got half of this, I'd be beyond thrilled.  Heck, even a third.  Given the range, I expect the next run of the GFS to show nothing.  

snku_acc.us_c.png

@CentralNebWeather gets 20 inches from the entire run. 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Today snow is likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. East wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tonight
Snow likely before 1am, then patchy snow and freezing drizzle. Cloudy, with a low around 29. East wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.  Most of the snow today and tonight of 1 to 2 inches near and south of I-96. Expect slippery roads by this evening. Highs will be in the lower to mid-30s.  Roads may become slippery once the sunsets just after 5:05 pm tonight. 

 

Yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 37/29 there was no rain or snow and no sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY so far for today is 27 with clear skies currently. For Today the average H/L is 38/26 the record high of 59 was set in 1946 and the record low of -2 was set in 1964. The record snow fall amount is 4.6” in 1995.

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We are starting a pattern today of seasonably cold temperatures that should last through much of the holiday season. In addition there will be multiple chances of rain and snow every few days during this stretch. The first such chance will be with some snow possibly arriving by Sunday AM changing to rain. More mixed wintry precipitation could arrive Wednesday night. The latest US Model (GFS) hints at a major snowstorm by next weekend....but we don't shovel models!
The record high for today is the 71 degrees from 1966 (during the following 3 weeks almost 3 feet of snow would fall including over 20" with lightning on Christmas Eve 1966) The record low for today is 6 degrees from 1989. Record rain is the 1.80" from 2009. Our record snow was the 7.8" that fell today in 2005.
image.png.12ae92352130cb34f8fe3a37e6ef16e2.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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2 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

I feel like it's been a long time since Chicago had a chance at a white Christmas.

Over on this side of the lake here is a fun fact the percentage of years with a white Christmas has steadily gone down in the last 50 years. In the last 50 years the chance of a white Christmas was 63%. In the last 30 years it was 61% in the last 20 years it was down to 57%. In the last 15 years it was down to 50% in the last 10 years it was down to 36%

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Snow is on the way. Temps are held down a bit than what anticipated. Currently at 34F. Hopefully I get enough snow to have the grassy surfaces at least whiten up.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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