December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

42 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Todays 12z Euro and Euro Control really caught my eye with the 2 systems close together 1 weak and 1 strong with the stronger one tracking up through the Ohio Valley very similar to cycle 1.  The Euro didn't quite go out far enough to capture it all but the Control was with it step for step on this run.  I'm sure there will be a lot of bobbles and wobbles over the next few days but when it's over I wonder how close this run will be.

 

Sorry to "No Spam" your post amigo. Just had to use that latest icon lol. Obviously a nice eye-candy run. That SLP location is indeed almost the same as the one at the end of Oct (and the 11/26 Cut-off for that matter). So we have the GFS burying S LA, and the Euro almost too far north for mby. Not much track differences to work out. The cut-off of the heavy streak of snow thru the region is absolutely classic for a S Stream storm here, where Wayne Cnty is a bit too close to the SLP to get the better snows. Just like in my post above wrt the Dec '00 Bliz. Same result with DTW barely hitting the 6" mark.  

[Clinton]

33 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Sorry to "No Spam" your post amigo. Just had to use that latest icon lol. Obviously a nice eye-candy run. That SLP location is indeed almost the same as the one at the end of Oct (and the 11/26 Cut-off for that matter). So we have the GFS burying S LA, and the Euro almost too far north for mby. Not much track differences to work out. The cut-off of the heavy streak of snow thru the region is absolutely classic for a S Stream storm here, where Wayne Cnty is a bit too close to the SLP to get the better snows. Just like in my post above wrt the Dec '00 Bliz. Same result with DTW barely hitting the 6" mark.  

The similarities were hard to miss, so I thought I'd share.  Lets hope it works out better than the Dec '00 Blitz for you.

[jaster220]

Yikes! This would suck. Christmas '09 nightmare on my street redux

[jaster220]

@Tom

Mountain snows:  Train plows snow in Sierra Nevada mountains | Latest Weather Clips | FOX Weather

[Clinton]

18 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yikes! This would suck. Christmas '09 nightmare on my street redux

KC got a Christmas Eve blizzard a few years back.  I got sleet, talk about a lump of coal in your stocking.

[Niko]

This type of weather here in S MI is perfect for shoppers and for decorating lights. Great opportunity. Dry and seasonably cold, although, it seems like I haven't seen the sun in such a long time. Some vitamin D is certainly needed.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Woof woof. It's still there...

[GDR]

[OmahaSnowFan]

A clown map I can get behind!!

[Clinton]

0z GEFS showing a stronger signal for a Christmas week storm or storms.

 

[westMJim]

With a lot of clouds there was not much of a temperature spread yesterday. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 35/33. There was no rain or snow fall and no sunshine. There remains no snow on the ground. The overnight low for today so far is 31. For today the average H/L is 37/25. The record high of 61 was set in 2015 and the record low of -6 was set in 1958.

Today will be yet another cloudy day with highs mostly in the 30’s with dry conditions once again. East winds of 10 to 20 mph will make it feel a bit colder.

With quiet, before a mix of precipitation comes in for Wednesday and Thursday. Some freezing rain will be possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning to the NE of GR across Central Lower. Colder weather with a chance of some snow showers can be expected for the end of the week and the weekend. Still not sure how much if any snow will accumulate.

So far December 2022 has been mild and dry with very little in the snow fall department. At Grand Rapids the mean for the 1^st 12 days of this month is 34.6 that is a departure of +1.8. there has only been 0.25” of total precipitation and of that just 0.8” of snow fall. At Lansing the mean is 35.3 for a departure of +3.5 and they have recorded 0.27” of total precipitation and lead the way with 1.5” of snow fall. At Muskegon they have a mean of 36.9 that is a departure of +2.8 they only have had 0.10’ of precipitation and just 0.3” of snow fall. At Holland the mean there is 36.1 and they have recorded 0.25” of precipitation. They do not record snow fall at Holland.

[Andie]

Counties in North Texas and Oklahoma  are under a tornado and severe thunderstorm warning early this morning.   
Not a great way to wake up and morning traffic will be complicated by storms. 

A warm 68* Wind gusts at 32 mph. 
Not what you want to hear at 5:30 am

Storms just west of the DFW area.  
 

[Tom]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@Tom

Mountain snows:  Train plows snow in Sierra Nevada mountains | Latest Weather Clips | FOX Weather

#Buried....The Banner Winter Season continues...this has been a monumental start to the snow season...don't you just love to see Mother Nature deliver the goods?

[Tom]

8 hours ago, Niko said:

This type of weather here in S MI is perfect for shoppers and for decorating lights. Great opportunity. Dry and seasonably cold, although, it seems like I haven't seen the sun in such a long time. Some vitamin D is certainly needed.

 

 

All I've been reading is how miserable, damp and cloudy it is back home...Not my cup of tea!  I enjoyed some natural Vitamin D over the weekend.  I'm ready for Winter and planning a day of when to come back soon!  This storm has gotten my Winter vibes turned on Big time...even while I've been out here in AZ.  I've gotten to experience what a cold Autumn this was for the state of AZ, esp NOV, which was the coldest in 20 years.   DEC is starting off quite active with PHX already up to an impressive 1.33" of RN (.28" is normal to date).  The mountains are seeing SN and more SN is in the forecast today.  Not to shabby I'd say.

 

[Black Hole]

Tornado activity is just south of me this morning, but I am getting some rain and thunder right now in Tulsa. 

[chescowxman]

Dry the next 2 days with slightly below normal temps in the upper 30's for highs across the County. Clouds will increase with snow arriving Thursday AM...we should see a quick turn over to rain from southeast to northwest during the mid-morning hours. Up to an inch of snow is the current early NWS forecast. Some models have up to 3" for NW sections of Chester County but we don't shovel models.

The record high for today is 69.7 set in 2015. The record low is 2 above zero from 1988. Record rainfall is the 4.21" that fell back in 1909. Daily snow record is 6.8" from 1915.

[Black Hole]

Bring on the clown maps! GFS dropping the best run I've seen so far this morning.

[Andie]

Currently awaiting the big slam of our morning extreme weather.  

Currently 69* so the temperature variance should bring us heavy weather.  
It’s just on my back door step in next county and the thunder should wake the rest of the neighborhood.   
 

 

[Tom]

0z Euro Control seeing the cutter around the 21st...

[Andie]

Tornado warning sirens are wailing. The thunder/lightning  on the west horizon sounds like something out of the American Civil War/ maybe Gettysburg.  A constant stream of booms.  Eerily quiet.  
Tornado on the ground about 15 miles north of me.  

[Andie]

The NWS has dropped the tornado warning. Spares Ft Worth.
Texas has possible tornados 12 months a year. This is old hat for us.  

Super heavy rain blasting. NWS stating the area just north of me is under a tornado warning. Circulation spotted close to the ground.  18 wheelers blown over on highway SW of me. 
The course just behind me is a lake in minutes. This thing is so tightly wound.

[tStacsh]

Rain incoming Wed-Thurs.  Models look pretty in the medium range, but I'm not holding my breath next week.  Still banking on lake effect this weekend, but even that doesn't look very impressive.  It's all up to luck for a system snow at this point as the models meander a potential storm or two the week before Kwanzaa.  

[Andie]

Aaaaaaaanndd …….it’s over.

Storm has continued to move east. Some circulation in areas but nothing on the ground. Boatloads of water dropped in under a minute.  

But I can’t get over the rolling big guns of thunder.  Truly.  I’ve been to Gettysburg and heard cannons. This was a good imitation of the constant cannons of that battle.  Impressive sudden cohesion of elements coming together all at once.  Great rare Christmas storm!

[Niko]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

All I've been reading is how miserable, damp and cloudy it is back home...Not my cup of tea!  I enjoyed some natural Vitamin D over the weekend.  I'm ready for Winter and planning a day of when to come back soon!  This storm has gotten my Winter vibes turned on Big time...even while I've been out here in AZ.  I've gotten to experience what a cold Autumn this was for the state of AZ, esp NOV, which was the coldest in 20 years.   DEC is starting off quite active with PHX already up to an impressive 1.33" of RN (.28" is normal to date).  The mountains are seeing SN and more SN is in the forecast today.  Not to shabby I'd say.

 

I am glad you are having a splendid time out west. Speaking of the mountains, I cannot believe the amount of snows they have picked up ( feet and feet of snowfall), just amazing. I saw pics and vid's that were astonishing. This is where you need to be, why come back. All the snow is where you are. Here its been just cloudy everywhere, w no snow (well, at least where I am).

Have you gone a mini trip up the mountains where they have been inundated w/ snow?

[Tom]

25 minutes ago, Niko said:

I am glad you are having a splendid time out west. Speaking of the mountains, I cannot believe the amount of snows they have picked up ( feet and feet of snowfall), just amazing. I saw pics and vid's that were astonishing. This is where you need to be, why come back. All the snow is where you are. Here its been just cloudy everywhere, w no snow (well, at least where I am).

Have you gone a mini trip up the mountains where they have been inundated w/ snow?

Have not gone up to Flagstaff area bc they just got snow yesterday.  The Rockies, Wasatch Mtn/ are a bit of a drive so no plans there.  Maybe a ski trip in Jan or Feb is what I may do instead.

[tStacsh]

2 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

I'm afraid to look at the latest model runs.  Last night's GFS was fantasy land, but it was indescribably beautiful (to quote "A Christmas Story").  I'm choosing to hang on to that feeling for a while.

I would find it almost easier to live in a place that doesn't see a lot of snow and get lucky every once in a while, instead of living in a "snow belt" and get shut out over and over again for decent system snows.  

[tStacsh]

4 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

I just took a look at Grand Rapids snowfall history.  Trust me, you're way better off there (if you like snow).  In a very down year, you have get as much snow as we do in a good year.  I get that everything is relative.  I've lived in Dallas and Minneapolis, and several places in between.  So I'm sure things can be frustrating no matter where you live.  But if you like snow, KC is an extremely frustrating place to live because of the number of near misses. 

The problem that I find here is, when it's not snowing,  its just cold.  It's always cloudy because of the lake.  No sun, no real warm ups when snow is lacking.  It's just blah from December through March.  Hardly any good days or sun.  It really affects people.  At least in KC you get sun and warmer temps when it's not snowing.  If it's NOT snowing here, the weather is just downright terrible.  

[james1976]

That Kuchera map @hawkstwelveshowed is brutal compared to 10:1. Tells me there is some incredibly cold air on the table.

[Andie]

52 minutes ago, Tom said:

Have not gone up to Flagstaff area bc they just got snow yesterday.  The Rockies, Wasatch Mtn/ are a bit of a drive so no plans there.  Maybe a ski trip in Jan or Feb is what I may do instead.

That should be nice. I’ve been to Flagstaff in winter. Not to ski but to close up a cabin and get a truck out of a 2’ snowfall.  That was fun!  But it’s gorgeous in winter   
 

 

[Up_north_MI]

1 minute ago, Andie said:

That should be nice. I’ve been to Flagstaff in winter. Not to ski but to close up a cabin and get a truck out of a 2’ snowfall.  That was fun!  But it’s gorgeous in winter   
 

 

I’ve only been to Flagstaff once and that was in July. That area reminds me a lot of northern Michigan with its pine trees, very pretty area.

[bud2380]

GFS - i really wish this wasn't so far down the road, because this hits just about everyone on here with a White Christmas. Storm really starts taking shape late Wednesday but is still snowing hard in some parts into Friday.  So much will change, but I wish it wouldn't, LOL.  

 

 

 

[winterfreak]

12z GFS is back to reality. We’re talking 9-10 days out so…yeah. The dream is still alive.

[tStacsh]

I suggest @jaster220 to not look at the latest GFS model run...

[Clinton]

12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Just a -26 reading at midnight on Christmas. No big deal.

Widespread snow cover making it brutally cold.

[Niko]

Another cloudy day today w/ temps at 29F.

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z GEFS showing a stronger signal for a Christmas week storm or storms.

 

 

4 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro Control seeing the cutter around the 21st...

Just hoping the GFS and its hard cut runs are out to lunch and will correct as we go along.

[bud2380]

Yeah, not a great run for this area of the country on the Euro.  But a pretty huge change from yesterday.  The Euro dropped the Monday system altogether and as mentioned shifted well north with a large warm nose out in front of the system, so brings rain instead of snow to most of IL, eastern IA and southern WI.  However, it does hold back some energy and you can see that ejecting out at hour 240 which appears would be a heavy snow producer for many of the areas that miss out on the lead wave.  Lots of possibilities yet. 

[Hawkeye]

[Tom]

0z GEFS jumping on the idea of a big Snow from KS/MO up through the Lower Lakes region....

Through Christmas...

[Hoosier]

21 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Yeah, not a great run for this area of the country on the Euro.  But a pretty huge change from yesterday.  The Euro dropped the Monday system altogether and as mentioned shifted well north with a large warm nose out in front of the system, so brings rain instead of snow to most of IL, eastern IA and southern WI.  However, it does hold back some energy and you can see that ejecting out at hour 240 which appears would be a heavy snow producer for many of the areas that miss out on the lead wave.  Lots of possibilities yet. 

I really wish the Euro ran out another day in this case.  Would love to see what happens with that storm after 240 hours.

Things can go wrong, but there is definitely potential for something big leading up to Christmas.