December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

So, where does it go...the million dollar question folks.

[tStacsh]

 First mention for this event from GRR.   I've settled on the most likely scenario of an arctic front with LEHS.  Nothing crazy. 

Not much LES this weekend either for my area.  stinks.  Another snowless first 15 days of December.  

 

"Model guidance has backed off on the light snow event early next week and is now ominously converging on a powerful arctic front passage and potential windy lake enhanced snow event late next week".

[bud2380]

GFS is back to showing the Monday system.  It's weak, but it's there again. 

 

[Grizzcoat]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

Anyone have the 12z Euro control for this time frame?

It's quite similar to the operational--

[bud2380]

18z GFS snow totals for the main system.  I wouldn't complain with this a couple days before Christmas.  

 

[Grizzcoat]

^^ I wouldn't complain about it a couple days before any day.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Anyone have the 12z Euro control for this time frame?

Here is a 6-10 day map which includes this only system...

 

[OKwx2k4]

I need enso to heat up before i get a s branch storm that matters. What a waste. -2 on .5 of snow is annoying for nothing.

[winterfreak]

42 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I need enso to heat up before i get a s branch storm that matters. What a waste. -2 on .5 of snow is annoying for nothing.

You and me both. What’s the point of bone chilling cold without the white stuff on the ground? Not appetizing.

[CentralNebWeather]

Many parts of Nebraska with little to no snow so far. 

 

[clintbeed1993]

9 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Many parts of Nebraska with little to no snow so far. 

 

 

And keep in mind this is coming off one of the least snowy winters of all time last year  Throughout history you rarely have back to back dud winters in a row in the books. This is pathetic and has to change soon

[CentralNebWeather]

34 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

 

And keep in mind this is coming off one of the least snowy winters of all time last year  Throughout history you rarely have back to back dud winters in a row in the books. This is pathetic and has to change soon

Was just mentioning this today with @gabel23. Even people I teach with who don’t like too much snow and cold weather are wondering where our snow storms have gone. 

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, Niko said:

How sweet is this.....and where can I sign for this!!

12Z GEM

Keep dreaming of a White Christmas amigo, but without a southern branch merger those kinds of totals just don't happen up here. A good hybrid clipper is 8"

[jaster220]

CPC map is quite busy in about a week here. Have (4) hazards. Cannot remember the last time I had that on the d8+

 

• Slight risk of heavy snow across portions of the Central Appalachians, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, Thu-Sat, Dec 22-24.

[ChiTownSnow]

8 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Keep dreaming of a White Christmas amigo, but without a southern branch merger those kinds of totals just don't happen up here. A good hybrid clipper is 8"

I think everyone on here would gladly take 8".  Also = white Christmas with room to spare

[bud2380]

46 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z NBM was a nice improvement for most folks over previous runs. Really picking up that system mid/late next week now and had a nice little shift south with the heavy snow line.

Keep in mind this is generally a fairly stingy model with snow and these are 10:1 ratios. With the kind of air we are dealing with next week we could see 20:1 or even 30:1 ratios.

The NBM stands for NWS Blend of Models. So it truly takes actual model output and blends it in an effort to put together a forecast using elements from each operational model.  So it’s sort of like an ensemble. In fact on Pivotal Weather you find the map under the ensembles section. Just a heads up in case you were not aware. 

[jaster220]

15 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

I think everyone on here would gladly take 8".  Also = white Christmas with room to spare

So would I ofc, just jabbing on my homey across town for a reaction, LOL. 8 would be Gr8

[bud2380]

GFS is slowing down compared to the last couple runs with the system next week.  My best guess is that would lead to a further south track, but I guess we'll find out shortly.  

[bud2380]

So far GFS is looking much weaker tonight compared to the 12z run in particular and the 18z as well.  

[bud2380]

Starting to organize a bit better by hour 180.  Shouldn't be too bad of a run when all said and done. 

[bud2380]

Temps in the single digits and teens for this system will make for a high ratio event.  

[bud2380]

 

 

 

[bud2380]

I really wish Pivotal had a 48 hour snow map.  

[Grizzcoat]

^^ system snows for longer than 24 hours- so difficult to pin totals. Here's everything, big improvement.

[Clinton]

1063mb High at the US/Canadian boarder at hr 186 good lord!

[Grizzcoat]

regardless of totals (or even if it's anything- but lets assume it is) it will be high ratios and likely blow pretty good

[Grizzcoat]

CMC- quite similar at this range-

 

[bud2380]

Canadian

 

[Grizzcoat]

This current system is going to really help suppress the storm track (nice thick snow cover over much of the ND/SD/MN/WI)  next week and likely for sometime.

[Clinton]

GFS 

10:! map

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

This current system is going to really help suppress the storm track (nice thick snow cover over much of the ND/SD/MN/WI)  next week and likely for sometime.

I don't think the models have fully digested that either.  I think that trough may deepen further west.

[Grizzcoat]

That's one heck of a cold lead up to Christmas. STONE COLD!

 

[Clinton]

Christmas Eve morning.

[OmahaSnowFan]

While a better run on the 0Z GFS, it’s pretty obvious that at least according to that model we’re heading towards a dominant northern branch/NW flow pattern which normally never performs that well around here. Not a single big system coming up from the southwest. Hoping for juiced clippers is a poor thing to rely on. Points north and east of Nebraska do better than we do in that type of pattern.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Not to mention, the bitter cold while better for ratios is going to probably be much drier than the models are picking up on.

[bud2380]

Euro.  

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, the Euro is farther sw and pretty hot, closing off the upper low as it passes just south.

[Hoosier]

I have 3 words for the Euro. 

Oh my God

Thing is, this isn't even the highest end outcome that this is capable of.

[Hawkeye]

9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I have 3 words for the Euro. 

Oh my God

Thing is, this isn't even the highest end outcome that this is capable of.

Yeah, that's quite the powerful storm being shown this run.  The snow through Iowa would be great, but it would be amazing to watch what happens farther east.

[Grizzcoat]

The Euro would certainly be Blizzard for all of IA-- 65mb of pressure difference from near Rapid City to near just W of Indy.

WOW