December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd love the big storm, but just want some snow on the ground.  Even if the storm doesn't do much, Chi area should have a window courtesy of the lake.  Really the only way the lake wouldn't produce something on the western shores would be if there's no storm anywhere, because the low level flow would quickly go w/nw in that case.

Hoping for a at least 3” to cover the grass and enough to whiten the Landscape and roof tops making the Christmas lights and decor look and feel festive.  It’s been way to long since we’ve enjoyed a classic cold and wintry scene on Christmas.

[Niko]

3 hours ago, Bellona said:

I don't trust most of what GFS says past 3 days, nice to look at, my opinion is its performance sucks since the 'upgrades'.

I used to trust the GFS, but now I think those upgrades made it smarter and act more extreme than other models, which make me cautious about it because you never know w/ the GFS.

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

As some of you probably know I work at the NWS Tulsa office now. We are definitely talking about the upcoming potential but there is so much spread nobody knows which outcome to believe. Latest 18z GFS was pretty intensely cold again. Not as insane as some runs a few days ago but its getting there. It's reintroduced some snow as well for me too.

My feeling is that some intense cold is a done deal, but will it end up historic or just unusual is the question. Also, further west tracks of the upper low are better for snow here so I hope that continues. 

I didn't know that. Pretty cool! We have a pretty neat collection of Okies piling up on here now. Awesome!

[OKwx2k4]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

A good amount of members showing a wound up cutter...I couldn't capture all of them in one frame bc some were a little later which is to be expected in an ensemble run 5+ days out...

 

 

I'd like to order a number 3 with a number 7 and 9 please. Thanks!

[Clinton]

18z GEFS breakdown of at least 2 storms next week.

Monday and Tuesday a weak but trending stronger system looks to target the Central Plains.

Dec 21st - 23rd a stronger storm will drop into the Plains it gets murkey from there but I'm still looking for it to cut into the Ohio Valley.  I very well could be wrong.  Like Tom said earlier lots of timing issues still.

 

[Niko]

5 hours ago, tStacsh said:

something in between.  I'd favor neither lol

This will be fun next week. Wonder how all this will end up.

[Clinton]

EAX discusses 3 potential storms next week.

A bit of a change in the pattern is anticipated for the week leading
up to Christmas weekend. The first event to watch will come early in
the week, perhaps Monday. A decent shortwave trough embedded within
the quasi-zonal flow over the CONUS will eject into the plains and
affect the local area early in the week. An associated surface
trough will cut off for a brief time the dry/cool continental air
and provide some southerly warm/moist low level air, which will feed
into the cool air aloft. There should be enough moisture and lift to
provide some accumulating precipitation, the question is exactly how
supporting the thermal profile will be for consistent snow
production. Using mostly planar surfaces it does look like there
should be some snow production Monday into Tuesday as this system
moves through, but the thermal profile does look pretty marginal,
which may limit the accumulation. These details can be looked into
and refined as the event approaches.

The second event to watch come mid to late week, once another shot
of cold air reinforcement arrives. A broad mid level trough will be
in place over the northern Plains, putting W/NW flow aloft over the
area. This will help keep the cold air reinforced for the late part
of next week, which will keep the air mass good and chilly. A series
of shortwave troughs will drop into the CONUS from Canada, with the
most promising of these waves coming in the Thursday/Friday time
frame. The big question with this system will be the moisture
quality, as the cold air will not be much of a problem with respect
to snow production. Currently the GFS is the most aggressive with
this system on Thursday, producing a couple inches of snow. The EC
does also show the potential for some snow production, so confidence
is increasing for at least some snow production in this time frame,
but confidence is still pretty low in how much snow will come, as
well as just how far south the accumulation will extend.

The final event before Christmas that bears some watching comes
Saturday night into Sunday. There is still plenty of disagreement
and uncertainty regarding this time period, but the GFS is being a
bit more aggressive in another fast moving open wave diving south
out of Canada over the weekend. Once again, moisture quality will be
at issue. The EC is virtually dry for this system, although it does
depict the system itself.

[Grizzcoat]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EAX discusses 3 potential storms next week.

A bit of a change in the pattern is anticipated for the week leading
up to Christmas weekend. The first event to watch will come early in
the week, perhaps Monday. A decent shortwave trough embedded within
the quasi-zonal flow over the CONUS will eject into the plains and
affect the local area early in the week. An associated surface
trough will cut off for a brief time the dry/cool continental air
and provide some southerly warm/moist low level air, which will feed
into the cool air aloft. There should be enough moisture and lift to
provide some accumulating precipitation, the question is exactly how
supporting the thermal profile will be for consistent snow
production. Using mostly planar surfaces it does look like there
should be some snow production Monday into Tuesday as this system
moves through, but the thermal profile does look pretty marginal,
which may limit the accumulation. These details can be looked into
and refined as the event approaches.

The second event to watch come mid to late week, once another shot
of cold air reinforcement arrives. A broad mid level trough will be
in place over the northern Plains, putting W/NW flow aloft over the
area. This will help keep the cold air reinforced for the late part
of next week, which will keep the air mass good and chilly. A series
of shortwave troughs will drop into the CONUS from Canada, with the
most promising of these waves coming in the Thursday/Friday time
frame. The big question with this system will be the moisture
quality, as the cold air will not be much of a problem with respect
to snow production. Currently the GFS is the most aggressive with
this system on Thursday, producing a couple inches of snow. The EC
does also show the potential for some snow production, so confidence
is increasing for at least some snow production in this time frame,
but confidence is still pretty low in how much snow will come, as
well as just how far south the accumulation will extend.

The final event before Christmas that bears some watching comes
Saturday night into Sunday. There is still plenty of disagreement
and uncertainty regarding this time period, but the GFS is being a
bit more aggressive in another fast moving open wave diving south
out of Canada over the weekend. Once again, moisture quality will be
at issue. The EC is virtually dry for this system, although it does
depict the system itself.

That's a nice write up.

Here is DMX's take from their AFD this afternoon. Pathetic.

Models are hinting at a few different chances for
precipitation next week but some differences remain so will
continue to provide updates in future forecast issuances.

[Clinton]

Just now, Grizzcoat said:

That's a nice write up.

Here is DMX's take from their AFD this afternoon. Pathetic.

Models are hinting at a few different chances for
precipitation next week but some differences remain so will
continue to provide updates in future forecast issuances.

Very fortunate to have a good office in KC.  They are very interactive with people on social media and are not afraid to adjust their forecast if it's needed.

[winterfreak]

EAX does a good job. Love reading their afd’s leading up to a potential storm be it of the wintry variety or just rain.

[Bellona]

38 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

That's a nice write up.

Here is DMX's take from their AFD this afternoon. Pathetic.

Models are hinting at a few different chances for
precipitation next week but some differences remain so will
continue to provide updates in future forecast issuances.

Dmx can be awful, I'm sitting on the eastern edge of their cwa, one county to the east is DVN, and one county northeast is ARX. I normally read all three when a storm is coming.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Wild tornadoes over Louisiana 

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This is just an unusual evolution.  Doesn't mean it can't happen.

We start out with distinct lows, then we eventually see the main system "catch up" and have a Fujiwhara effect with the surface lows off of the east coast around 192-204 hours.

Hoping at this range, that model is being too progressive and the western SLP will hang back in IN/OH a bit more.

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Can you imagine if the trough phases farther west up the OHV?  Prob won’t but I could see the possibility.  The EPS mean is showing something like that bombing out near OH/PA.

What run exactly, and can you flash a map by any chance?

[Hoosier]

In the "bust out any and every model" philosophy, I only have the 00z ICON to 120 hours but the upper level pattern at that time looks like it would make things interesting later in the run.  Guess we'll know soon enough.

[Hoosier]

Well, got a little fooled.  Certainly can't say the ICON is suppressed though.  Lol

[Grizzcoat]

monday system- 00z GFS-

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

monday system- 00z GFS-

Great way to start Christmas week.  Do you want to fire us up a thread?

[Grizzcoat]

^^ I will later if the Euro comes around. So far it's nada. But I may anyway later tonight.

[jaster220]

Slight consolidation trends via the EPS last 4 runs

If I have to comment I will. I feel like the bitter cold won't be over whelming so early in the season pushing this all the way to the EC. More like the SLP may get drawn back towards the cold and that SLP along the EC acts as a "moisture feeder". Gets drawn into the arctic air in similar fashion as the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950. Occasionally we'll get a boost from the Atlantic all the way back to SMI and I can picture GRR's graphic showing the dual conveyor belts of moisture (GOMEX and Atlantic) but can't remember what storm that was attm.

[winterfreak]

GFS basically on its own for the Monday system around here. CMC came in dry and EURO has been as well.

[james1976]

10 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

1 year ago today. The craziest December weather event I’ve ever experienced. It outperformed any expectations I had.

Was able to document one tornado as it raced away at 70-80 mph.

It made it to 73 degrees here in Omaha and we had a high wind warning all day for gusts to 75 mph.

Over 100 confirmed tornadoes with a couple dozen rated EF-2.

There was a very large grass fire in Kansas with the smell of smoke in the air carried several states away. When it rained briefly here, there was so much dirt and dust in the atmosphere that most objects were covered in dirt AFTER the rainfall.

When I took out my outside Christmas tree decorations a few weeks ago to set up, there was still dust that was falling off the trees!

https://www.weather.gov/oax/dec1521

I remember this. So crazy watching this roll through down at the IA home. The fact it was December put it into a whole other world. Historic for sure.

[jaster220]

@Tom

"Did I just see peak wind gusts up to 70+mph just off shore of NE IL??  #GDH-1  #Flashbacks"

Actually, there's a small dot of what appears to be 83 mph gust. Jan '78 did that in Cleveland and NWOH

[Clinton]

0z GFS snowfall total up to hr 186

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian has nothing early in the week, then just a strong front with snow showers late week.  The way this is setting up, the energy won't be able to close off and wrap up until it nears the east coast.

[Grizzcoat]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

The Canadian has nothing early in the week, then just a strong front with snow showers late week.  The way this is setting up, the energy won't be able to close off and wrap up until it nears the east coast.

True. But its a vast improvement over it's 12Z run.....

[Grizzcoat]

We post clown maps all the time for mainly where we live.

Here's one for the Big Easy. I wonder when is the last time NO got 4" of snow that falls mostly during the day?-- and on Christmas? Probably never for the later...

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS snowfall total up to hr 186

That lake enhanced signal is nuts imby, considering it's the lower res GFS.

[Hawkeye]

I would be very skeptical of the early-week snow event on the GFS.  No other model has anything.

[Grizzcoat]

I agree. But the UKIE has it but way weak. SREF just getting into range also...

[Hoosier]

Tonight's 00z Euro isn't as sexy as last night's run, but still not bad.

[Hoosier]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Tonight's 00z Euro isn't as sexy as last night's run, but still not bad.

Nuclear deepening near the east coast... surface low drops 16 mb in 6 hours at one point.  

[Hoosier]

Coastal low just gets yanked well inland by the very deep negatively tilted trough.

[Phil]

Wow, yeah that’s a nuke. Verbatim it would be the strongest windstorm here since March 2/3, 2018, which produced a 71mph gust at Dulles Airport (and even 90-100mph on some of the ridge tops.

Long way to go, but I’m cautiously optimistic about the possibility of a nice storm and arctic shot just before Christmas. Hopefully we can score some snow out of it.  

[Grizzcoat]

GFS "update" either needs to get a clue or start a coup d'etat-- I'am somewhat shocked it's still holding on to this when most other guidance is not. Monday "event"... from 06ZGFS

[westMJim]

Good morning! Well, yes there is a light coating of 0.2” of snow on the ground here this morning. As for yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 40/32. There was a reported 0.44” of precipitation of that 0.5” was reported as snow fall There was a reported 1% of possible sunshine as the sun did indeed come out for a couple of minutes. As reported I have 0.2” of snow on the ground here, the road and driveway are just wet. The current temperature here in MBY is 32. For today the average H/L is 36/25 the record high of 62 was set last year(2021) and the record low of -2 was set in 1901 and 1989. The record snow fall amount of 5.7” was set in 1911.

For today, tonight, and tomorrow in their discussion the NWS goes into some detail on the good conditions for lake effect for that period but for some reasons their forecast don’t really have the same idea. So the bottom line is we shall see.

[Grizzcoat]

As someone pointed out y-day ( I think Hoosier) you can see the potential late next week storm just S of the Aleutians --- ( I have no clue if this is said storm potential -- but take your word for it) --- when you look at this time frame , it's nuts that guidance even comes close to getting stuff even in the same ballpark 7+ days out. And we complain about "sudden" shifts at the end.  Imagine that when you look at this-- it boggles my mind the guidance is able to do what it does ---

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-npacwestlarge-14-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Clinton]

This morning GFS is doing a little more with the Christmas Eve and Christmas Day storm.

[Clinton]

Clown map maybe but this mornings GFS has 3 storms Christmas week.  I wish it was easier to split them up with Kuchera Ratios but here is the run through Christmas Day.

GEFS Mean:

 

[Tom]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Hoping at this range, that model is being too progressive and the western SLP will hang back in IN/OH a bit more.

What run exactly, and can you flash a map by any chance?

I'll post tonights 0z EPS suite bc it is still showing a strong signal for a powerful trough to max out right over this region and not far from YBY.

 

 

0z Euro Kuchera snowfall totals...pretty much a carbon copy of last nights 0z run but not as widespread and juiced...still though, I'd gladly take this.

 

0z EPS Snow mean through Christmas Day...btw, it's picking up a wave on Christmas Eve ejecting out of the Rockies along the belly of the tough right through SD/NE region...similar to what the last 06z GFS run was showing.  Gotta watch out for this developing wave bc I think it fits the pattern perfectly.  As mentioned before, this pattern is very Lucrative to produce Snow for a lot of us next week.

 

[Tom]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Clown map maybe but this mornings GFS has 3 storms Christmas week.  I wish it was easier to split them up with Kuchera Ratios but here is the run through Christmas Day.

GEFS Mean:

 

Trends are looking very good my friend!  Look how many ensemble members are showing a wound up storm just like the Euro/Euro Control are showing?  I will dig into the EPS members shortly...