December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Yeah, that's quite the powerful storm being shown this run.  The snow through Iowa would be great, but it would be amazing to watch what happens farther east.

Can't wait to see the Kuchera map for the entire storm 

[Grizzcoat]

Though a lot of the City  (DSM) would be off work because of the Christmas long weekend, technically still a workday. If the following were to happen= -18 air temp and -44 wci - the city of DSM would freeze shut. Infrastructure here is not like Minny-- 4" frame in houses compared to 6" - the list is endless.  And it's the first "real" cold of the season. People would (will) be really shell shocked as this is not late Jan/ early FEB when this is more common to come.

[Hoosier]

Really no other way to say it.  The 00z Euro would be a very dangerous blizzard.  Winds just off the deck at 925 mb are very impressive and very cold air pours in on the backside.

[Grizzcoat]

[Hawkeye]

Models are trying to work out how much of a storm there may be, but the cold is there every run.  The wind and cold behind a storm like this would be brutal.

[Grizzcoat]

Duluth all ready with 20" of snow on the ground.  (first graphic)-- fyi- SNINCR 1/20 in a Metar/speci report indicates 1" of new snow over the last hour / with 20 on the ground.   Certainly higher amounts NE in the snow belts around Finland and Isabella. This might be the year that the  all time snow depth record for MN is challenged (2nd graphic). I'd bet on it with leverage odds at this point so early in the year.

[Stacsh]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Really no other way to say it.  The 00z Euro would be a very dangerous blizzard.  Winds just off the deck at 925 mb are very impressive and very cold air pours in on the backside.

My office isn’t impressed.  In fact they think the real cold air won’t even make it here.  

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS is over washed with brutal Arctic air. Hardly a storm at all. Note to reader- it's 06ZGFS and no upper air soundings which is ALWAYS crucial. But a 12Z and 00Z run similar would be no bueno....

Anything is possible at this range. I put no stock in a single model-- just trends at this range.

 

[Grizzcoat]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Duluth all ready with 20" of snow on the ground.  (first graphic)-- fyi- SNINCR 1/20 in a Metar/speci report indicates 1" of new snow over the last hour / with 20 on the ground.   Certainly higher amounts NE in the snow belts around Finland and Isabella. This might be the year that the  all time snow depth record for MN is challenged (2nd graphic). I'd bet on it with leverage odds at this point so early in the year.

Now 23"---

METAR: KDLH [Duluth Intl Arpt]

METAR: KDLH 151055Z COR 07022G33KT 1/2SM R09/4500V5000FT SN BLSN VV007 M01/M02 A2942 RMK AO2 PK WND 08042/1007 TWR VIS 1 SLP979 SNINCR 1/23 P0007 T10061022

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 39/30 there was just a trace of precipitation recorded before midnight there was no snow fall and there was no snow on the ground. The overnight low here in MBY was 32 and there was some ice before the temperature went up. At the current time it is 37 here. There was 0.35” of rain fall overnight. For today the average H/L is 36/25 the record high of 62 was set in 2021 and the record low of -7 was set in 1917 the record snow fall amount of 6.2” was set in 1987.

Conditions should dry out this morning as precip exits north. Conditions will by mostly dry this afternoon, then lake effect snow will begin tonight for lakeshore. Temperatures will be on the decline the rest of this week and into the start of next. Meanwhile multiple days of lake effect snowfall will lead to snow accumulations of up to 6” or more near the lakeshore. Otherwise expect cloudy conditions to persist.

Now with a expected extended period of cold weather with lake effect snowfall and possibly system snowfall is expected to bring a White Christmas to all of Southwest Michigan. Grand Rapids, in the past 10 years has had a White Christmas in 2013, 2016, 2017 and 2020. It is looking more and more like we will be able to add 2022 to that list. For Lansing it would be 2012, 2013, 2016, and 2017. For Muskegon 2013, 2016, 2017 and 2020.

[Niko]

Beast!!

 

Look at the transfer this low does off the mid-Atlantic states. Big cities (NYC, Philly, Boston - Look out!!)

[Stacsh]

22 minutes ago, Niko said:

Beast!!

 

Look at the transfer this low does off the mid-Atlantic states. Big cities (NYC, Philly, Boston - Look out!!)

I’m not buying this at all.  But one could hope 

[Tom]

Alright, alright, alright...I think we have a Pre-Christmas storm to track this year!  Where shall we begin??   Umm, ya....the 0z Euro run was likely the best Pre-Christmas Blitz run that I've personally ever seen.  I'm sure many on here would gladly welcome this solution with open arms.  My goodness, that was an incredible run...here is a snow map for your perusal...it will likely change next run so don't get used to it!  

 

Here is why I am getting a bit more optimistic that both the Euro & GGEM are onto something as they both show a similar pattern downstream and up near Baffin Bay.  Take a look at the gif animation below and you'll see why the Euro is tracking the main energy farther south compared to the GFS model.  Our current GL's storm system is forecast to track into NewFoundland/Labrador providence of Canada and get blocked up just S of Greenland that will pump the ridge even farther.  This will pave the way for the main energy that is waiting upstream over the B.C. area to track into the N Rockies and follow the "corridor" where it tracks thru IA/MO/S IL into the Apps, literally, a perfect track for Chicago and the Lower Lakes region.  It's like a textbook Heavy SN event that also includes the Lake component.  Did I just see peak wind gusts up to 70+mph just off shore of NE IL??  #GDH-1  #Flashbacks 

 

 

Peak Wind gusts....

 

Now, digging into this a bit more, I find it really encouraging that both the EPS 500mb mean and Euro Control are in pretty similar agreement.

0z Euro Control 6-10 snow map that has the full storm...10:1 snow ratios

 

0z Euro Op total precip...very juicy...

 

0z EPS 500mb...

[Tom]

All I gotta say, the JMA Weeklies are a thing of beauty for literally everyone on here....Ol' Man Winter is here to stay my friends!  Active and Cold...haven't seen a pattern lock like this through the holidays and into Mid-JAN since maybe the '13-'14 season, at least for MBY in the GL's.

Week 2-4 500mb pattern...Lock the "Greenland Block"...sign me up!

 

30-day Temp mean...

 

Week 2 precip...

 

Week 3-4 precip...

 

[chescowxman]

We picked up 0.3" of snow and sleet so far with it now falling as mainly ZR with some IP mixed in here in the NW burbs of Philly in East Nantmeal Township.

This is our first measurable snow of the season, ZR now temp at 30.3

[bud2380]

GFS is back to a Monday storm again.  

 

[Hoosier]

For the pre-Christmas storm, 12z GFS should be improved over 6z run.  Not saying much.

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian has now lost the big storm potential late week (still no early week snow, either).  The GFS and Canadian are both strengthening the early-week dip in the northern jet stream, which then takes away from the late week storm.  At least up through last night, the Euro is much flatter with the early week dip.

[Tony]

GFS taking the Christmas storm up the coast...worst case scenario for us.

[james1976]

7 minutes ago, Tony said:

GFS taking the Christmas storm up the coast...worst case scenario for us.

960mb Nor'Easter 

[tStacsh]

Focusing on the Lake effect snow this weekend  4-8".  To hell with whatever happens next week.  Every solution is on the table.  It certainly won't be the 12Z GFS though.  No way that happens.  

[winterfreak]

CMC is ugly. GFS a mixed bag. Models seem to be latching on to an east coast threat. Would be hilarious after all the talk in this sub the last week.

[bud2380]

GFS looks decent for awhile and then just completely weakens and dies off as it heads east.  Really solid hit for the eastern NE posters we have here.  

 

[tStacsh]

4 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

CMC is ugly. GFS a mixed bag. Models seem to be latching on to an east coast threat. Would be hilarious after all the talk in this sub the last week.

  On 12/14/2022 at 8:53 AM, tStacsh said:

yeah, but that had model consistency from run to run from every model.  This arctic surge is modeled all over the place, but the most consistent thing is a strong cold front followed by a storm in the east.   Don't think there will be any major storm in our areas.  

[tStacsh]

I still think the GFS is playing catch up from it's speedy bias, but how strong and how far north will this potential storm go?  Euro will be interesting later.   I still favor the east coast though.  

[Hoosier]

14 minutes ago, Tony said:

GFS taking the Christmas storm up the coast...worst case scenario for us.

Nice lake enhancement on the western side of Lake Michigan. 

There will certainly be a lake response in this timeframe.  Location and duration are impossible to say until we can nail down some details in the synoptic evolution.

[bud2380]

We're going to see so many more changes over the next few days.  This storm is still 6-7 days away, so hard to say what will happen.  Seems every option is still on the table from full fledged blizzard to suppressed and weak.  The guarantee at this point is the cold behind the system. 

[ChiTownSnow]

3 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I still think the GFS is playing catch up from it's speedy bias, but how strong and how far north will this potential storm go?  Euro will be interesting later.   I still favor the east coast though.  

Correct.. This is my thought too.  

[bud2380]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I could imagine a worse snow map heading into Christmas morning...

On the surface this looks disappointing for my area since so much heavy snow just barely misses my backyard, but if I got 5.1" between now and Christmas, I'll take it.  

[bud2380]

Hard to post maps that you can easily translate on the UK, but here is the 6 hour qpf for the last frame the model goes out to 144 hours.  It's further north than the GFS and appears slower with the cold air intrusion.  I would assume this implies a further north solution.

 

[Hawkeye]

23 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Hard to post maps that you can easily translate on the UK, but here is the 6 hour qpf for the last frame the model goes out to 144 hours.  It's further north than the GFS and appears slower with the cold air intrusion.  I would assume this implies a further north solution.

 

The UK is MUCH different than the GFS/GDPS(Canadian).  The latter two are emphasizing the early-week wave and de-emphasizing the late-week wave.  The Euro, and now the UK, are the opposite.  In fact, the latest UK is flat and north with the first wave and is strongly digging the big late-week wave into the Rockies at the end of its run.

UK

GFS

[OKwx2k4]

16 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Many parts of Nebraska with little to no snow so far. 

 

Its getting bad when okies and texans are feeling sorry for snowless Nebraska. 

I stand corrected. No complaints here!

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 year ago today. The craziest December weather event I’ve ever experienced. It outperformed any expectations I had.

Was able to document one tornado as it raced away at 70-80 mph.

It made it to 73 degrees here in Omaha and we had a high wind warning all day for gusts to 75 mph.

Over 100 confirmed tornadoes with a couple dozen rated EF-2.

There was a very large grass fire in Kansas with the smell of smoke in the air carried several states away. When it rained briefly here, there was so much dirt and dust in the atmosphere that most objects were covered in dirt AFTER the rainfall.

When I took out my outside Christmas tree decorations a few weeks ago to set up, there was still dust that was falling off the trees!

https://www.weather.gov/oax/dec1521

[Tony]

17 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The UK is MUCH different than the GFS/GDPS(Canadian).  The latter two are emphasizing the early-week wave and de-emphasizing the late-week wave.  The Euro, and now the UK, are the opposite.  In fact, the latest UK is flat and north with the first wave and is strongly digging the big late-week wave into the Rockies at the end of its run.

UK

GFS

Europe vs USA/Canada. If this was a soccer match, I would bet European all the way

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Though a lot of the City  (DSM) would be off work because of the Christmas long weekend, technically still a workday. If the following were to happen= -18 air temp and -44 wci - the city of DSM would freeze shut. Infrastructure here is not like Minny-- 4" frame in houses compared to 6" - the list is endless.  And it's the first "real" cold of the season. People would (will) be really shell shocked as this is not late Jan/ early FEB when this is more common to come.

A long stretch of those temps could certainly spell stress and problems, but 1-6-14 during the PV Bliz I had -16F/-41WC in Marshall and my pre-Civil War home was fine. No freezing of pipes in the Crawl space and rather old furnace kept us toasty. I suppose it helped we had 20" snow depth that was insulating a bit around the old stone foundation. Bare ground and those temps might have been another story.

[Hoosier]

22 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The UK is MUCH different than the GFS/GDPS(Canadian).  The latter two are emphasizing the early-week wave and de-emphasizing the late-week wave.  The Euro, and now the UK, are the opposite.  In fact, the latest UK is flat and north with the first wave and is strongly digging the big late-week wave into the Rockies at the end of its run.

UK

GFS

Yikes.  Striking differences across the board.  One model with a big trough in the Lakes and another with ridging.  And not like this is out at 10 days and beyond.

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Alright, alright, alright...I think we have a Pre-Christmas storm to track this year!  Where shall we begin??   Umm, ya....the 0z Euro run was likely the best Pre-Christmas Blitz run that I've personally ever seen.  I'm sure many on here would gladly welcome this solution with open arms.  My goodness, that was an incredible run...here is a snow map for your perusal...it will likely change next run so don't get used to it!  

 

Here is why I am getting a bit more optimistic that both the Euro & GGEM are onto something as they both show a similar pattern downstream and up near Baffin Bay.  Take a look at the gif animation below and you'll see why the Euro is tracking the main energy farther south compared to the GFS model.  Our current GL's storm system is forecast to track into NewFoundland/Labrador providence of Canada and get blocked up just S of Greenland that will pump the ridge even farther.  This will pave the way for the main energy that is waiting upstream over the B.C. area to track into the N Rockies and follow the "corridor" where it tracks thru IA/MO/S IL into the Apps, literally, a perfect track for Chicago and the Lower Lakes region.  It's like a textbook Heavy SN event that also includes the Lake component.  Did I just see peak wind gusts up to 70+mph just off shore of NE IL??  #GDH-1  #Flashbacks 

 

 

Peak Wind gusts....

 

Now, digging into this a bit more, I find it really encouraging that both the EPS 500mb mean and Euro Control are in pretty similar agreement.

0z Euro Control 6-10 snow map that has the full storm...10:1 snow ratios

 

0z Euro Op total precip...very juicy...

 

0z EPS 500mb...

That was a model run for the ages right there. Dude! If you end up nailing this (referring to your post days ago citing the W->E monster storms) from that range, that will be one yuge win for your LR prognostication skills. I'd never EVER be able to say "Tom's just exaggerating" again.  

[Tony]

10 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

It's funny.  Most people on here choose to believe models that benefit them with more interesting weather.  I typically assume the model that least benefits me will verify.  Hence my wink gif on my last post mocking the GFS.

Yep, have to agree. The chances of anything BIG happening around Christmas time for our area is slim (but not impossible) and if it were January, I would feel better. I'm sure the EC is loving the run of the GFS. 

[Tom]

30 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GEFS looks to be picking up the southern storm a bit more than previous runs.

Still suspiciously low on snow amounts for next week.

A good amount of members showing a wound up cutter...I couldn't capture all of them in one frame bc some were a little later which is to be expected in an ensemble run 5+ days out...

 

 

[Tom]

26 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

That was a model run for the ages right there. Dude! If you end up nailing this (referring to your post days ago citing the W->E monster storms) from that range, that will be one yuge win for your LR prognostication skills. I'd never EVER be able to say "Tom's just exaggerating" again.  

I remember the Euro teasing our region many many times before and last nights 0z run was one that I'll remember bc it has implications for the chances of a White Christmas!  I still believe there is going to be a formidable storm next week.  I like what the UKIE is showing at HR 144 bc it looked similar to last nights 0z Euro Op run.  Lots to iron over the next few days.  Hoping we get some consistency by the weekend.