December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

12z GEFS through Christmas...

[Hoosier]

29 minutes ago, Tony said:

Yep, have to agree. The chances of anything BIG happening around Christmas time for our area is slim (but not impossible) and if it were January, I would feel better. I'm sure the EC is loving the run of the GFS. 

It's almost unreal how much of a dead zone for snow that Dec 21 and 22 have been for Chicago over the years.  The record calendar day snow for each day is 3.6", which is the lowest value for any day of the month.  And those happened decades ago.

[bud2380]

Euro coming into range now.  

[bud2380]

Euro at 156 definitely still has the storm.

 

[Hawkeye]

3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro coming into range now.  

The Euro is beginning to strengthen the early-week wave more, which should at least dial back the late-week superstorm.

[bud2380]

Not terribly dissimilar to last night, just much more toned down with the qpf (and probably more realistic).

 

[bud2380]

For those further east.

 

[Bellona]

Just now, bud2380 said:

For those further east.

 

I'd seriously be okay with this.

[Hawkeye]

I have to think the UK's scenario of a significant trough digging southward into the western US is wrong.  No other model has anything like that.

[Tom]

As @bud2380 said, the storm potential is still there just not as amped...I'd be stoked to see this for our 1st real storm of the season.  The winds, cold and snow all combined would make a very wintry scene gearing up for Christmas.  How nice would it be not getting a slop storm and then a quick warm up right afterwards that would melt the snow away?  I think that's happened to us farther south many times over the past few years.  

[winterfreak]

EURO is not inspiring. Looking bleak around here. Congrats Boston! Two days ago feels like forever ago…

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, winterfreak said:

EURO is not inspiring. Looking bleak around here. Congrats Boston! Two days ago feels like forever ago…

Just another horrible model run around here.  Sure looks like everything is heading east of us.  Have to hope for a shift back west, but not overly optimistic.  

[gabel23]

6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Just another horrible model run around here.  Sure looks like everything is heading east of us.  Have to hope for a shift back west, but not overly optimistic.  

Yeah south central nebraska might continue with the snow curse. This run looks more realistic than last night's run. Still got a week to go so just got to keep hope. I just want the ground to be covered before the arctic air rolls through next week. 

[Hoosier]

Excuse the crappy artwork, but the area I circled in black out in the Pacific to the south/west of the Aleutians is what becomes our potential storm.

 

[tStacsh]

Trending the wrong direction for many on here.  My initial thoughts of a weaker wave, strong cold front becoming an EC storm is creeping up in potential.  

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

A good amount of members showing a wound up cutter...I couldn't capture all of them in one frame bc some were a little later which is to be expected in an ensemble run 5+ days out...

 

 

That fits.  Do you agree?

[Niko]

Euro Vs GFS. Which do you think will win out. Still a week away from the potential event. There is huge potential w/ this storm for someone and whoever is lucky enough to be in its path will get crushed.

[Hoosier]

Anyone notice that energy just kind of hanging around off the east coast even well before our system approaches?

Kind of an oddball setup.  That preceding EC low may help the areas out that way though by keeping the baroclinic zone closer to the coast... unless our trough just goes bonkers negative tilt and pulls everything back westward.

[tStacsh]

Just now, Niko said:

Euro Vs GFS. Which do you think will win out. Still a week away from the potential event. 

something in between.  I'd favor neither lol

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

That fits.  Do you agree?

Yes it does but that sneaky energy off the SE coast may plague us and steal the energy unless the energy coming off the Rockies is stronger.

 

12z EPS showing a good area of SNOW through Christmas Day...

[Tom]

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Anyone notice that energy just kind of hanging around off the east coast even well before our system approaches?

Kind of an oddball setup.  That preceding EC low may help the areas out that way though by keeping the baroclinic zone closer to the coast... unless our trough just goes bonkers negative tilt and pulls everything back westward.

I was replying to Clinton and thinking about this about 30 min ago but had to take a business call.  I hope its not one of those situations where the energy gets transfered to the EC.  

[Bellona]

24 minutes ago, Niko said:

Euro Vs GFS. Which do you think will win out. Still a week away from the potential event. There is huge potential w/ this storm for someone and whoever is lucky enough to be in its path will get crushed.

I don't trust most of what GFS says past 3 days, nice to look at, my opinion is its performance sucks since the 'upgrades'.

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, Tom said:

I was replying to Clinton and thinking about this about 30 min ago but had to take a business call.  I hope its not one of those situations where the energy gets transfered to the EC.  

I mean, that kind of happened on the 00z Euro run and yet it still produced 2 feet in Chicago.  

In a more classic transfer situation, usually that initial low will at least make it to about the longitude of OH before it occludes and transfers.  In this case we have a low off the east coast just sort of waiting.

[tStacsh]

Just now, Hoosier said:

I mean, that kind of happened on the 00z Euro run and yet it still produced 2 feet in Chicago.  

In a more classic transfer situation, usually that initial low will at least make it to about the longitude of OH before it occludes and transfers.  In this case we have a low off the east coast just sort of waiting.

timing is everything.  Until the timing and speed of these energies get sorted out, anything is possible.  

[Grizzcoat]

Monday's system-- someone should start a thread -

18Z GFS

[bud2380]

The mid to late week system on the 18z GFS.

 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Trending the wrong direction for many on here.  My initial thoughts of a weaker wave, strong cold front becoming an EC storm is creeping up in potential.  

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Euro Vs GFS. Which do you think will win out. Still a week away from the potential event. There is huge potential w/ this storm for someone and whoever is lucky enough to be in its path will get crushed.

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

something in between.  I'd favor neither lol

Way too early to call this either way. Could even look lame and trend better late-game as often is the case. GFS's wild wild swings are no help. Then we've got this lead wave to sort through first. Wouldn't get too up or down at this range tbh.

[winterfreak]

GFS is bleak as well. East coast is about to have a memorable Xmas storm.

[jaster220]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Nice improvement.

Yeah, that's quite a nice improvement for sure. Will be gone next run ofc

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, winterfreak said:

GFS is bleak as well. East coast is about to have a memorable Xmas storm.

Don't they ALWAYS tho!

[Hoosier]

This doesn't have to be an either/or.  There's a scenario where the whole area from the Midwest to the east coast or thereabouts gets a big one.

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This doesn't have to be an either/or.  There's a scenario where the whole area from the Midwest to the east coast or thereabouts gets a big one.

CPC's pm release keeps hopes alive. Bumped a day later tho since yesterday:

[Hoosier]

Currently getting dusted.

[jaster220]

Nice to know my drought's scheduled to end next Thur

[GDR]

East coast gets hammered

[gabel23]

I’m that I can receive just a little bit of what that’s showing!

[Hoosier]

This is just an unusual evolution.  Doesn't mean it can't happen.

We start out with distinct lows, then we eventually see the main system "catch up" and have a Fujiwhara effect with the surface lows off of the east coast around 192-204 hours.

[Black Hole]

As some of you probably know I work at the NWS Tulsa office now. We are definitely talking about the upcoming potential but there is so much spread nobody knows which outcome to believe. Latest 18z GFS was pretty intensely cold again. Not as insane as some runs a few days ago but its getting there. It's reintroduced some snow as well for me too.

My feeling is that some intense cold is a done deal, but will it end up historic or just unusual is the question. Also, further west tracks of the upper low are better for snow here so I hope that continues. 

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is just an unusual evolution.  Doesn't mean it can't happen.

We start out with distinct lows, then we eventually see the main system "catch up" and have a Fujiwhara effect with the surface lows off of the east coast around 192-204 hours.

Can you imagine if the trough phases farther west up the OHV?  Prob won’t but I could see the possibility.  The EPS mean is showing something like that bombing out near OH/PA.

[Hoosier]

25 minutes ago, Tom said:

Can you imagine if the trough phases farther west up the OHV?  Prob won’t but I could see the possibility.  The EPS mean is showing something like that bombing out near OH/PA.

I'd love the big storm, but just want some snow on the ground.  Even if the storm doesn't do much, Chi area should have a window courtesy of the lake.  Really the only way the lake wouldn't produce something on the western shores would be if there's no storm anywhere, because the low level flow would quickly go w/nw in that case.