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April 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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I have flowers blooming in my front garden (under the snow blanket this morning ofc). Going to Chicago this weekend, only in this April will it not be colder there due to the lake. Can't wait for the light at the end of this useless winter tunnel I stepped out to this morning. Feels like temp currently @ 24F in Marshall. This is the kind of rebound I can deal with, lol

 

Chicago 2-day. Tom left a bit too soon for all the fun - ha!

I couldn't tell ya how much I don't miss that gloomy weather! Been sunny and in the upper 70s'/80's here everyday. Today may top out near 90F. I'm burnt up and was thinking of going to hike Camelback mountain near Scottsdale. We'll see if we do or not.

 

Signs of real warmth around the 15th or so building in the Plains and heading towards the Lakes. As has been the case this season, where the storm track sets up will determine who see's the Spring warmth.

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After a brief break in the active weather pattern, it looks like the wet pattern reloads and it is possible that it translates into May.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017040600/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017040600/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_10.png

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Might hit very close to 80 here tomorrow with the SW winds pushing warm air through the Buffalo Ridge. MPX hitting the fire danger threat pretty hard. Warm temps, RH under 25% and gusty winds. We are major dry right now. Most places around here have only seen about 0.25" of precip in the last 30 days.

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75 in the point today, severe storms tomorrow, followed by a blast of cold air on Monday that should produce some snow. Most models hitting C MN with anywhere from 6-12". Not rooting for that, but would be cool to see.

12z NAM 3km showing some snows falling during the day tomorrow...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017040912/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_32.png

 

 

Meanwhile, back home...a line of severe storms may be firing up???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017040912/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_33.png

 

 

That has a solid look to a line of storms.  Potential hail/high wind producing storms???  MI/IN posters should be on the lookout...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017040912/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_36.png

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Just had the initial line of storms roll through. Not much lightning or wind, but SPC thinking a few surface based storms may fire this evening and become severe. Mesoscale discussion says a watch is possible. Winter weather advisory north of the TC metro. Dynamic cooling tomorrow afternoon may produce a few inches of snow here. We'll see.

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I believe the record depth for MI is 117" (iirc)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Mby's gotten all the rain that's missed MN peeps. Folks in my hood are dealing with flooded basements, including your's truly. First water in my basement since 2 wks of training T-storms in July of 2010 did the deed. I've had worse (remnants of Ike?), but it's never any fun tbh.

 

KRMY hit 26º Saturday morning about 7 am, and Sunday's high was 74º  Roller-coaster ride had been the theme all cold-season. Was nice to feel warm again! :D

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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75F yesterday is a distant memory. Currently 33 and sleeting so heavily that the driveway and deck have a coating of ice on them. Shock to the system.

Watching the Cubs home opener is giving me the chillzzz! Seeing their breath on TV makes tonight's warm evening here in AZ that much more enjoyable!

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Watching the Cubs home opener is giving me the chillzzz! Seeing their breath on TV makes tonight's warm evening here in AZ that much more enjoyable!

Yeah they said the temp dropped around 20F in an hour or so? Not sure if that's accurate. Either way the weather here and there is not pretty. My mom lives in Surprize. She says it's still 80 at this hour. Enjoy that!

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Yeah they said the temp dropped around 20F in an hour or so? Not sure if that's accurate. Either way the weather here and there is not pretty. My mom lives in Surprize. She says it's still 80 at this hour. Enjoy that!

The elusive pneumonia front...had that experience a few days before I left out here.  We hit a record high of 82F and crashed to 42F by the evening.  LOT had a write-up on that temp drop and I believe it was the 2nd or 3rd largest temp drop in the span of 2 hours (31F or so).  No bueno!

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Marquette Mntns upgraded to a Storm Warning - up to 8"  But this is the place that can see snowstorms on Memorial Day, so no big deal, just another spring snow for them. April 7th, 1997 I had to blow out my drive of 7" in Traverse and there was still a "base" on which that fell so that snowmobilers were crossing the highways in groups that were up for weekend riding. This is by no means "late" for snow in NMI. Hopefully though, we're done (beyond a flurry) downstate.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It finally feels like Spring outside as temps behave and trees are starting to slowly blossom. Still, bare trees.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Marquette Mntns upgraded to a Storm Warning - up to 8"  But this is the place that can see snowstorms on Memorial Day, so no big deal, just another spring snow for them. April 7th, 1997 I had to blow out my drive of 7" in Traverse and there was still a "base" on which that fell so that snowmobilers were crossing the highways in groups that were up for weekend riding. This is by no means "late" for snow in NMI. Hopefully though, we're done (beyond a flurry) downstate.

The U.P. cashed in on the snow!  Up to a Foot in some parts...

 

C9JfAowWsAAeK11.jpg

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The latest JAMSTEC just teasing all of us for next winter...need the Nino to cool a bit more and we are in business!

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2018.1apr2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2018.1apr2017.gif

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I picked up 0.42" of rain last night.  With a dew in the 40s, the temp quickly dropped when the rain moved in.  There was a bit of light thunder, but mostly just cool spring rain.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It looks like we're going back to a wet pattern the next week. Only have 2 days out of the next 7 with no rain chances. Temps look to stay nice though in the 60s and 70s, so at least it's not going to be cold.

Yup, the wet pattern seems to be the theme this Spring.  Wonder if this will continue as we head into May.

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CFSv2 jiving with the LRC's cooler phase to close out April and open into May.  Wet and cool may be the theme to close out the month.

 

C9OUySJXYAASlx4.jpg

 

Last May was cold 1st half. Everything else (except the March temp flip) has been similar this winter to last, so this would follow along, sadly.. :( 

 

Basement's finally drying out, so I guess I better enjoy that summer tease as you called it on Saturday!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Haven't seen the SOI crash so hard in a long time...it was just +15.28 a couple days ago!

 

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 14 Apr 2017

Average for last 30 days 2.08

Average for last 90 days -1.53

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -34.68
 

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We reached the low 70s this afternoon with dews in the low 60s.  A line of thundershowers passed through this evening, dropping a half inch of rain.  Nearly all of our rain this spring has been long-duration light, so this was the heaviest downpour I've seen in a while.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like some big boomers will fire up later this afternoon in the region...Hawkeye might finally get his strong storms!

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017041512/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_15.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017041512/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_17.png

 

 

 

SPC has IA in the Slight Risk Category...

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/activity_loop.gif

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We never fell below the mid 60s overnight, easliy our warmest low temp of the year.  We are already in the low 70s despite a lot of clouds.  Regarding the storms later, we'll just have to wait and see what pops and where.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yeah, there has been a lot of rain and small hail this evening.  The first flash flood warning of the season was issued for my local area.  It has been thundering for hours.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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