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April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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I had the same feeling on both days this past weekend.   Although I knew it was going to happen... it was still very annoying.    

My wife and I were certain it was following us:

-Wednesday did a half day at work and took the family up to La Conner and of course a conv zone set up all evening and then dropped south as we drove south all the way home and parked at home just north of downtown Seattle. 

- Thurs & Friday stayed home and convergence stayed in place over north Seattle. 

- Saturday visited family in Bellevue and convergence set up just south of I90 most of the day. 

- Sunday visited in laws in Renton/Maple Valley and conv set up most of the day down there.

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60deg Seattle mark in jeopardy! Currently 59. Rain is about to happen which should cool the air down a bit but it might be too late.

60 here now with filtered sun.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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One of those few times in my life I actually find myself rooting for an El Nino.

I'm hoping for a west-based warm-neutral. Haven't seen vodka cold around here since 2014/15.

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Significant warming in the Indian Ocean over the last week...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

Cold anomalies there are disappearing...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Phil... does this change anything in your forecast?   You said a cold IO was significant.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Significant warming in the Indian Ocean over the last week...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

Cold anomalies there are disappearing...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Phil... does this change anything in your forecast? You said a cold IO was significant.

No, because the IO/ATL is still the coldest tropical domain and remains the focus for subsidence. The recent warming is a reflection of the seasonal cycle as it relates to the monsoonal cell primers.

 

Take the difference from the global mean anomaly..this is how the climate system "sees" things.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

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No, because the IO/ATL is still the coldest tropical domain and remains the focus for subsidence. The recent warming is a reflection of the seasonal cycle as it relates to the monsoonal cell primers.

 

Take the difference from the global mean anomaly..this is how the climate system "sees" things.

 

 

Thanks... good information.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Its been raining almost every day for 2.5 months down here.   I will be vigilant for any sign of drought.   Could be tomorrow... we just don't know.   

 

I was in the office today and drought was the main topic of conversation with the sun breaking out for a couple hours this afternoon.  People are getting nervous.   But it looks like relief is on the way tomorrow evening and Wednesday.

 

Wish I could send the rain shadow your way, I can see a patch of menacing clear sky to the south east of here.

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Just light showers and drizzle now, but the winds have really picked up. That low shown to roll up the coast on Friday morning is pretty impressive looking for an April system. It bottoms out around 974mb on the GFS.

I'll be working in Victoria on Friday. That trajectory looks like a windy, hopefully mostly rain shadowed day.
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Warm day today in Klamath Falls. Low of only 45 and been in the 50's since 8am..

 

I see a risk of convection Thursday/Friday in the region but I wonder if I'll have anything. ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Warm day today in Klamath Falls. Low of only 45 and been in the 50's since 8am..

 

I see a risk of convection Thursday/Friday in the region but I wonder if I'll have anything. ;)

Supercells and a 100kt low level jet moving in here tonight. :P

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Next week is looking more benign and pleasant per the ECMWF.

 

I notice that Sunday is looking dry and pleasant as well on the 12Z ECMWF... lets see if we can actually hold on to that.   I would love a decent weekend day.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Next week is looking more benign and pleasant per the ECMWF.

 

I notice that Sunday is looking dry and pleasant as well on the 12Z ECMWF... lets see if we can actually hold on to that.   I would love a decent weekend day.

Yea I really like our chances for the weekend after this one. Good storm here this weekend and then we should have a nice and sunny week. If it holds we could probably string 5 days of melt-freeze by next Saturday if it doesn't get warmer/cloudier and some really good spring snow conditions would be in store.

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High Wind Warnings/Advisories in April in southern Oregon. Can't say I've seen that too many times. ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The US is on a near record pace with tornado frequency so far.

 

This storm system in the south certainly won't put a damper on those numbers, either. It's not often you see 100kt low level jets anywhere, let alone a warm, tornado-friendly one with excellent deep layer shear and low-level veering, through a warm sector, in an occluding low, in April, in the most tornado-friendly climate on earth. Wouldn't surprise me if there are a few big ones tonight.

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Next week is looking more benign and pleasant per the ECMWF.

 

I notice that Sunday is looking dry and pleasant as well on the 12Z ECMWF... lets see if we can actually hold on to that. I would love a decent weekend day.

I wouldn't get my hopes up too much about next week. The Euro seems to be consistently digging things too far west lately, when in reality the trough ends up much closer to us. Like what happened this week.

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I wouldn't get my hopes up too much about next week. The Euro seems to be consistently digging things too far west lately, when in reality the trough ends up much closer to us. Like what happened this week.

 

I know.   But historically there is almost always a relaxing of the pattern at some point in April... particularly in years when February and March were very wet.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Next week is looking more benign and pleasant per the ECMWF.

 

I notice that Sunday is looking dry and pleasant as well on the 12Z ECMWF... lets see if we can actually hold on to that. I would love a decent weekend day.

Saw a bunch of Seattle photos on FB from this past weekend that looked pretty decent.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Saw a bunch of Seattle photos on FB from this past weekend that looked pretty decent.

 

Yeah... that might have been good timing.   It definitely rained both days in Seattle as well.  I was there on Saturday.   It rained out here most of the weekend of course. 

 

A nice weekend day is not unrealistic to expect even here after rain almost every day since late January.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah... that might have been good timing. It definitely rained both days in Seattle as well. I was there on Saturday. It rained out here most of the weekend of course.

 

A nice weekend day is not unrealistic to expect even here after rain almost every day since late January.

Tim, almost every one of your posts sounds like you are a little butt hurt. Like everyone else has said in one way or another, if you don't like your weather then move to somewhere where you will.

 

We all know it will eventually get sunny and this has been a wet period for the ages, but it's not unheard of so no need to repeat it. Just sayin bro

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Tim, almost every one of your posts sounds like you are a little butt hurt. Like everyone else has said in one way or another, if you don't like your weather then move to somewhere where you will.

 

We all know it will eventually get sunny and this has been a wet period for the ages, but it's not unheard of so no need to repeat it. Just sayin bro

 

I should move for being hopeful about a single dry day on a weekend after an extremely wet period?    :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Majority of people on weather forums seem to enjoy cool/cold and rainy weather. I like to watch a good downpour too, but those are hard to come by here in Southern California and I don't understand why so many people prefer a 60-ish overcast day over a sunny day in the low 70s. I know endless sunshine can be boring, but so is cloudy weather with no rain.

 

I've seen many people who would enjoy a Northwest Coast like summer where the highs are in the 50s on the days the marine layer does not burn off and low to mid 60s when the sun does come out except for those rare offshore flow episodes where it can reach 80s or 90s for 1-3 days.

A cool summer (mid 70s) is nice, but upper 50s to low 60s is freezing by my standards, and I know many people would prefer it over a hot summer. I love to swim and I need my Vitamin D. San Francisco is often colder in July than January. Unacceptable summer weather to me.

 

My dog loves the sun also and does not want to go outside on cool, overcast days. All people are different, however. To some, 74 degrees means time to turn on the AC. To me it feels quite cool.

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I should move for being hopeful about a single dry day on a weekend after an extremely wet period?    :lol:

I'm with you.  This has been the crappiest winter/early spring I can ever remember and I'm not that young.  it has been a bit better down here than western Washington, however.  We deserve a week or two of mild, dryish weather.  The snowfall we had this winter was great, but the lasting memory for me of this wet season will be the doom and gloom and lack of dry, mild weather, basically since early November.  As a fair weather cyclist, I've only been on my bike once this year.

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