April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/gloomiest-vancouver-least-sunshine-1.4057649

 

IMG_0654.JPG

Interesting to see 1997 and 1972 on there, both being developing super niño regimes.

 

I guess it makes sense given the poleward effects from the anomalous EPAC convection.

[crf450ish]

[Front Ranger]

Majority of people on weather forums seem to enjoy cool/cold and rainy weather. I like to watch a good downpour too, but those are hard to come by here in Southern California and I don't understand why so many people prefer a 60-ish overcast day over a sunny day in the low 70s. I know endless sunshine can be boring, but so is cloudy weather with no rain.

 

I've seen many people who would enjoy a Northwest Coast like summer where the highs are in the 50s on the days the marine layer does not burn off and low to mid 60s when the sun does come out except for those rare offshore flow episodes where it can reach 80s or 90s for 1-3 days.

A cool summer (mid 70s) is nice, but upper 50s to low 60s is freezing by my standards, and I know many people would prefer it over a hot summer. I love to swim and I need my Vitamin D. San Francisco is often colder in July than January. Unacceptable summer weather to me.

 

My dog loves the sun also and does not want to go outside on cool, overcast days. All people are different, however. To some, 74 degrees means time to turn on the AC. To me it feels quite cool.

 

That's f*ucked up.

[Phil]

Pacific still holding onto the warm EPAC/cold dateline look.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.4.3.2017.gif

[Brennan]

The US is on a near record pace with tornado frequency so far.

 

This storm system in the south certainly won't put a damper on those numbers, either. It's not often you see 100kt low level jets anywhere, let alone a warm, tornado-friendly one with excellent deep layer shear and low-level veering, through a warm sector, in an occluding low, in April, in the most tornado-friendly climate on earth. Wouldn't surprise me if there are a few big ones tonight.

Climate change. Atmosphere is heating, oceans are dying.

[Jesse]

I'm with you. This has been the crappiest winter/early spring I can ever remember and I'm not that young. it has been a bit better down here than western Washington, however. We deserve a week or two of mild, dryish weather. The snowfall we had this winter was great, but the lasting memory for me of this wet season will be the doom and gloom and lack of dry, mild weather, basically since early November. As a fair weather cyclist, I've only been on my bike once this year.

I guess I'm missing the boat on this one. It really hasn't been that bad. We had an incredibly warm and dry first half of November, then a thoroughly enjoyable December/January with lots of cold sunny weather and snow at times. Sure February and March were wet but it's not like that is usually a stellar time of year anyway. We expect gloom then.

[Timmy Supercell]

Climate change. Atmosphere is heating, oceans are dying.

 

Even if the number of tornadoes are well ahead of time and reach a record; I'm still pretty sure certain dynamics that bring this together may have existed in the past at one point (or possibly a few points). There are clearly single events or a series of events almost 100 years ago we have yet to surpass. 

[Timmy Supercell]

I'm with you.  This has been the crappiest winter/early spring I can ever remember and I'm not that young.  it has been a bit better down here than western Washington, however.  We deserve a week or two of mild, dryish weather.  The snowfall we had this winter was great, but the lasting memory for me of this wet season will be the doom and gloom and lack of dry, mild weather, basically since early November.  As a fair weather cyclist, I've only been on my bike once this year.

 

In the majority of the Pacific Northwest this was a pretty dynamic and diverse winter, people with any range of preferences would rank this an A+ winter. Especially locally in certain spots would probably rank A+++.... (calling that rank for K-Falls right now) I'm not even a fan of winter either.

 

Almost reached top 5 warmest Novembers, then began a stretch of 4 consecutive above normal snowfall months in a row (it's been 10-15 years since that happened), really cold January leading into a slightly warmer than normal February. From Oct-March I had both lots of wet rains and snow. Lots of things from both ends. Still fit in some sunny days, which in the winter I wish they held off until May but that's just my preference. 

 

Also, Spring barely started. In most places in the PNW this is not the time to even call Spring. April 2016 was highly anomalous in my location, not surprised to see a mirror opposite of that one here in my location. It's to be expected. In May I will report back if it's a crappy Spring.

[BLI snowman]

I guess I'm missing the boat on this one. It really hasn't been that bad. We had an incredibly warm and dry first half of November, then a thoroughly enjoyable December/January with lots of cold sunny weather and snow at times. Sure February and March were wet but it's not like that is usually a stellar time of year anyway. We expect gloom then.

 

Battle Ground had 54.58" of precip between October 1 and March 31. Their annual average is 52". It's been really wet. Been a thoroughly rainforesty last six months.

[TT-SEA]

I guess I'm missing the boat on this one. It really hasn't been that bad. We had an incredibly warm and dry first half of November, then a thoroughly enjoyable December/January with lots of cold sunny weather and snow at times. Sure February and March were wet but it's not like that is usually a stellar time of year anyway. We expect gloom then.

 

SEA has received 41.44 inches of rain since October 1st... normal is 28.73 inches.   

 

October/November were 7 inches above normal.    

 

Then SEA set a record for the wettest February/March period ever (almost 10 inches above normal in 2 months).    And a record it appears for the most days with precipitation in February/March.

 

I don't have stats for SEA... but Vancouver BC had the cloudiest March in history and I am pretty sure it was even cloudier in the Seattle area.  

 

There have been 3 days without rain in Seattle since February 23rd.   

 

If temps had been well above normal this entire time... you would be posting about it daily.  Even though it would have felt wet/chilly either way to the average person.  Your tolerance for wet and gloom is much higher than the average person.  I understand its not normally nice in February/March... but this has been unusually bad.   And this has been pointed out very well by Cliff Mass and Scott Sistek with statistics.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/03/a-beautiful-day-on-friday-after-one-of.html

 

The complaints have been non-stop, with even Northwest natives mumbling about one of the most persistently wet, cool, cloudy winters they can remember.

 

But the real depressing aspect of this winter is the continuation of the clouds and rain into late February and March, when major improvement is normally observed.   Here are the number of days during the past 60 days with some rain.  OMG... large swaths have had 50-55 days of rain out of 60 days (83-92%).   This is way more than normal (typically in March in Seattle 55% days have some rain).  MUCH worse than typical.

 

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/guess-what-seattles-breaking-another-rainfall-record

 

And Mark Nelsen...

 

http://www.kptv.com/link/492613/fox-12-weather-blog

 

Try to stay dry and don’t get too down about the rain.  Even though the natives are getting restless, I’m hoping they don’t need to sacrifice a local meteorologist…

[Phil]

Tragic.

[TT-SEA]

Tragic.

 

No... there are much worse things in life.   But we discuss weather and weather stats on here and that is what has happened.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

March was pretty terrible, April has been okay so far, but today takes a much wetter turn.

[Kayla]

That's f*ucked up.

 

"The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco"

[Jesse]

Sorry Tim, TLDR.

[Jesse]

We had a pretty nice dry break up here yesterday afternoon. Same with the day before.

[stuffradio]

We had a pretty nice dry break up here yesterday afternoon. Same with the day before.

Not up here. I'm already at ~2 inches of rain now this month. I was close to 2 inches before 5 PM yesterday, so I may have surpassed that by now already.

[Phil]

[stuffradio]

It's been puking rain all day here. Spring ruined. Waaah.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7663EBB7-CE32-423E-96D4-298ED771CBD1_zps4rokpzks.png

I doubt you've had 18" of rain like I have since March 1.

[Phil]

I doubt you've had 18" of rain like I have since March 1.

True, but we're on track to get 20% of that in 6hrs as of now.

 

Mother Nature is mean.

[TT-SEA]

True, but we're on track to get 20% of that in 6hrs as of now.

 

Mother Nature is mean.

Getting tons of rain in short periods of time is fun and entertaining.

 

Getting .25 to .50 per day (with almost no convection) for 2.5 months is not as entertaining.

 

Apples and oranges.

[BLI snowman]

I haven't hit 70 since September 29. Gotta be approaching a record by the time all is said and done. Nothing even 65+ in sight.

[BLI snowman]

Friday also looks like the biggest wind event of the storm season for many places. Our first shot at 55+ gusts.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I had back to back 60 degree readings this week. First 60s of the season. First 70 at my place may wait until May this year...

[Kayla]

I haven't hit 70 since September 29. Gotta be approaching a record by the time all is said and done. Nothing even 65+ in sight.

 

That's actually pretty remarkable. Can't think of any other low land areas in the lower 48 that can even get close to matching that steak this year.

 

Even we've already hit 70 here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Friday also looks like the biggest wind event of the storm season for many places. Our first shot at 55+ gusts.

 

High wind watch posted for the coast. I don't remember an April wind event...

[Phil]

Getting tons of rain in short periods of time is fun and entertaining.

 

Getting .25 to .50 per day (with almost no convection) for 2.5 months is not as entertaining.

 

Apples and oranges.

What's the difference? It's just more water.

[TT-SEA]

What's the difference? It's just more water.

Time is the difference... obviously.

 

And that is everything.

[BLI snowman]

That's actually pretty remarkable. Can't think of any other low land areas in the lower 48 that can even get close to matching that steak this year.

 

Even we've already hit 70 here.

 

Yeah, it feels like we've been living in the Aleutians this year.

[BLI snowman]

High wind watch posted for the coast. I don't remember an April wind event...

 

40-50mph events aren't super rare. April 2010 (Tim's favorite year) had two of them and the most recent one was on 4/7/2013.

 

1957 was the last really significant south windstorm in April, PDX hit 73mph.

[ShawniganLake]

40-50mph events aren't super rare. April 2010 (Tim's favorite year) had two of them and the most recent one was on 4/7/2013.

 

1957 was the last really significant south windstorm in April, PDX hit 73mph.

April 2, 2010 was a big one up here. 60+ mph gusts destroyed a local marina.

[epiceast]

That's actually pretty remarkable. Can't think of any other low land areas in the lower 48 that can even get close to matching that steak this year.

 

Even we've already hit 70 here.

We haven't! we finally got a 60 reading yesterday, longest time with no 60 reading. It was only 61, if we kept going we would be in the running for latest 60 ever.

[Kayla]

We haven't! we finally got a 60 reading yesterday, longest time with no 60 reading. It was only 61, if we kept going we would be in the running for latest 60 ever.

 

BLI still has even you beat! Missoula's last 70º day was Oct 1st and your at ~3,200'. Nowhere near the lowlands. 

[epiceast]

http://atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/timeindep/images_d3/id_snow24.72.0000.gif

Would be a really great way to end the snow season with once in a 50 year storm!

[epiceast]

Anybody with euro access wants to tell me if Euro is on board for the pretty map storm?

[BLI snowman]

BLI still has even you beat! Missoula's last 70º day was Oct 1st and your at ~3,200'. Nowhere near the lowlands. 

 

Yeah, SW WA might be one of the few low-lying interior locales in the country that can say it. Spokane also hasn't done it since September 30, although they are higher up of course. 

 

Even the Puget Sound region largely scored a 70+ day on November 8, while I only topped out at 68 with that and 67 in October.

[seattleweatherguy]

Nws going with a high wind watch

[Deweydog]

I doubt you've had 18" of rain like I have since March 1.

Pfft...

 

He had 18 inches on Inauguration Day alone.

[Phil]

A tornado tracked across the White House lawn today.

 

Thanks, Trump.

[Jesse]

12z Euro looks fairly cool and benign in the long range.