11/28 - 11/30 Plains/GL's System

[Tom]

This may not be your quintessential CO Low, but nevertheless, it'll deliver a decent swath of Snow from the Rockies into the W GL's.  Looks like @hawkstwelve @james1976 @Madtown @St Paul Stormare in line for a nice storm to lay down some white gold.

0z Euro...

 

 

06z GEFS...

 

 

0z UKIE...

 

[hawkstwelve]

19 minutes ago, Tom said:

This may not be your quintessential CO Low, but nevertheless, it'll deliver a decent swath of Snow from the Rockies into the W GL's.  Looks like @hawkstwelve @james1976 @Madtown @St Paul Stormare in line for a nice storm to lay down some white gold.

0z Euro...

 

 

06z GEFS...

 

 

0z UKIE...

 

That's the best looking GEFS mean yet. Pair that with the 06z GFS and the 06z Euro and it could be getting interesting in the 4th quarter of the game.

Still thinking 2-3 inches for SE SD is a good call though... For now. 

[jaster220]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

That's the best looking GEFS mean yet. Pair that with the 06z GFS and the 06z Euro and it could be getting interesting in the 4th quarter of the game.

Still thinking 2-3 inches for SE SD is a good call though... For now. 

Should be a nice WWA event for yby. Wonder why Uncle Ukie's the only model excited about LES in SWMI? 

[Clinton]

46 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Should be a nice WWA event for yby. Wonder why Uncle Ukie's the only model excited about LES in SWMI? 

Check out the 6z GFS, it looks similar to last nights Canadian that got my attention but develops a new center over eastern Michigan and brings some snow to a lot of the state.  @westMJim may do well here.

Hopefully we can bump totals for @CentralNebWeather and other Nebraska folks over the next few days.  Parts of Nebraska did well precip wise in October 11th and 12th.   Centralnebweather reported a .25 but some on the east side of the state got near an inch.

Here are some other rain totals that were reported here on Oct 11th and 12th.

BMT- .75

FV Mike- .65

Hawkeye .23 but noted 1 inch amounts very close to his home

WestMJim- 1.04

[jaster220]

18 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Check out the 6z GFS, it looks similar to last nights Canadian that got my attention but develops a new center over eastern Michigan and brings some snow to a lot of the state.

Hopefully we can bump totals for @CentralNebWeather and other Nebraska folks over the next few days.  Parts of Nebraska did well precip wise in October 11th and 12th.   Centralnebweather reported a .25 but some on the east side of the state got near an inch.

Here are some other rain totals that were reported here on Oct 11th and 12th.

BMT- .75

FV Mike- .65

Hawkeye .23 but noted 1 inch amounts very close to his home

WestMJim- 1.04

Thx, was just about to review models just on behalf of LES potentials alone. Now this development would be more like what the GFS was flashing about idk? 4-5 days ago at very LR. Nice to have TWO systems of interest on the board at once! That's an active pattern in my book. 

[jaster220]

Sure enough @Niko's place getting slammed early Thurs morning:

 

Wouldn't this be a "plot twist"!

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Sure enough @Niko's place getting slammed early Thurs morning:

 

Wouldn't this be a "plot twist"!

I had been waiting for the models to show this and had just about given up on it.  The AO and NAO are dipping hard at this time and should deliver for the Lakes.  I won't even pretend to understand the thermals that your area gets but where it gets cold enough it should snow a lot lol.

[jaster220]

15 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I had been waiting for the models to show this and had just about given up on it.  The AO and NAO are dipping hard at this time and should deliver for the Lakes.  I won't even pretend to understand the thermals that your area gets but where it gets cold enough it should snow a lot lol.

Well, I'm in the "crap corner" of The Mitten when it comes to thermal odds stacked-up against me. Wayne Cnty metro is like a land all alone. Anywhere else N and/or W should have a much better shot of seeing snow from these trends.  

[Iceresistance]

Has anyone noticed that the SPC has a D4 enhanced for that in the Southern Plains and into Dixie Alley?

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Check out the 6z GFS, it looks similar to last nights Canadian that got my attention but develops a new center over eastern Michigan and brings some snow to a lot of the state.  @westMJim may do well here.

Hopefully we can bump totals for @CentralNebWeather and other Nebraska folks over the next few days.  Parts of Nebraska did well precip wise in October 11th and 12th.   Centralnebweather reported a .25 but some on the east side of the state got near an inch.

Here are some other rain totals that were reported here on Oct 11th and 12th.

BMT- .75

FV Mike- .65

Hawkeye .23 but noted 1 inch amounts very close to his home

WestMJim- 1.04

That might have been one of the last times we’ve seen moisture. How sad is that?  

[james1976]

Looking good for the TC. And I'll be up here during that time frame so I'm happy about that. I'll prolly head down to the IA home Wed pm for a couple days.

I see the 12z GFS OP still wants to stay a bit south and weaker. Seems like it's still the outlier. Ensemble mean is still in the north camp. Looks like a high end advisory.....maybe Warning level??? Time will tell!

[westMJim]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

new center over eastern Michigan and brings some snow to a lot of the stat

If that snow fall map were to come true that would be more of a east side of the state event. But the low looks too close to were the highest snow fall amounts are.

[jaster220]

35 minutes ago, westMJim said:

If that snow fall map were to come true that would be more of a east side of the state event. But the low looks too close to were the highest snow fall amounts are.

Yes. Models really struggling to sort this out. But after months of non-stop boring wx, getting 2 systems this week is like winning the Lotto!

[Tom]

12z UKIE...

 

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro not looking too shabby. A pretty nice improvement over 00z for SD/IA/MN/WI.

[jaster220]

GRR

-- Tuesday night into Wednesday night --

A more coherent Rossby wave trough propagating through the CONUS
midweek will feature sharper baroclinicity and consequently more
intense mid to upper level jet kinematics over the Great Lakes.
This will be a rain changing to light or moderate lake-enhanced
snow kind of event, though there is still quite a spread in QPF
among ensemble members. Some models within the ensembles point
toward a potential wind advisory especially for the lakeshore,
behind the cold front on Wednesday.

[Tom]

12z EURO...

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

GRR

-- Tuesday night into Wednesday night --

A more coherent Rossby wave trough propagating through the CONUS
midweek will feature sharper baroclinicity and consequently more
intense mid to upper level jet kinematics over the Great Lakes.
This will be a rain changing to light or moderate lake-enhanced
snow kind of event, though there is still quite a spread in QPF
among ensemble members. Some models within the ensembles point
toward a potential wind advisory especially for the lakeshore,
behind the cold front on Wednesday.

I'd actually say that the wind aspect is probably one of the higher confidence aspects of this.  Really just about no matter how it evolves, it's gonna get windy in the area.

[james1976]

MPX only going with 2-3" for the heaviest band and less around that. Definitely don't seem to be buying the higher totals the models are putting out.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

12z EURO...

Euro sticking to a one-n-done SLP deepening into CON. Curious to see if the CMC and GFS are out to lunch developing a secondary

[jaster220]

12z GFS continues its theme of lagging the CF advancement and popping a 2ndry SLP. Now flashing a 980's SLP over the Georgian Bay area. This could be pretty dynamic. Have not had a RN-->SN event work out here in quite a while. 

[hawkstwelve]

FSD is finally taking a nibble at the snow potential on Tuesday, saying that accumulating snow now looks likely with travel impacts possible. They also mention that 1-4 inches seems possible based on ensembles, although "some members are a bit higher than that". Sounds like a reasonable forecast this far out.

18z GFS is easily the snowiest GFS run yet, now showing a little over 6 inches IMBY. FSD did mention that dry air in the lower levels may inhibit snowfall for a little while at the onset of the event so thinking that 5-7 inches being modeled is a bit high. Feeling sturdy with my 2-3 inch call still, although the likelihood of receiving more than that has grown a fair amount since my initial forecast.

[hawkstwelve]

GEFS continuing to up the snow totals.

[hawkstwelve]

 

[james1976]

00Z GFS looking solid for the TC!

[Clinton]

0z GFS developing a secondary low pressure a little sooner and further south.  Looks more blocked up and somewhat similar to the Oct 11th and 12th version.

 

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, james1976 said:

00Z GFS looking solid for the TC!

Warning level snow for you bud!

[hawkstwelve]

Geez Louise... GFS was (not too long ago) once the model continuously showing the least amounts. Now it's the model showing the most, by quite a bit. Up into TC looks quite snowy too.

I mean I'd take 7 inches IMBY any day of the week but I'm not feeling like that's a likely outcome.

Edit: Woops, didn't realize Clinton already posted this. That's what I get for not refreshing the page.

[hawkstwelve]

GEM goes bust for FSD and TC. Brings the system further south with lesser amounts.

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

GEM goes bust for FSD and TC. Brings the system further south with lesser amounts.

The GFS has trended stronger and more dynamic today, the CMC has trended weaker and faster.  I would bet on the GFS.

[james1976]

Local met here in the TC said an inch or 2 on the 10pm news tonight. Hmm

[hawkstwelve]

12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The GFS has trended stronger and more dynamic today, the CMC has trended weaker and faster.  I would bet on the GFS.

The Euro has been the goldilocks model, seemingly threading the needle on the difference between the two model camps. Thinking it'll probably end up fairly close. Although I'm very curious to see what it says tonight given the two opposite trends today.

[Hoosier]

The trailing upper level energy looks pretty robust.  I could totally imagine the models trending toward a quicker developing secondary surface low on future runs, but we'll see how it goes.  The faster that this secondary develops, the better that prospects would be for a second swath of accumulating snow.

[Hoosier]

[Grizzcoat]

Fairly significant shift S ( at least at this range) on the Euro,, maybe the CMC is on to something. - caa quicker and system not as deep this run.

12Z Euro (10:1)

00Z Euro (most recent)- 10:1

[Grizzcoat]

Weaker and  S-SE trend also on 06ZGFS. My .02 is many on NW-N end get dry aired to death. Much thinner band WWA snows -- which makes sense after reading the local AWD's and current Winter Storm Watch is placed.... pretty much turning out to be maybe? WWA for the Twin Cities but bullseye for NW WI??  Mood flakes maybe here in C.IA- but it's late NOV. KDSM all ready over avg for snowfall for NOV-- A few more tenths or so will not hurt when it looked NIL just 24-36 hours ago.

06Z GFS-

[hawkstwelve]

Yeah definitely not crazy about this last minute shift to the SSE with the snow band. Overnight Euro, Canadian, GFS, and even the ensembles are all showing this. Not terribly surprised with the weakening side of things as I expected the higher amounts being modeled were overblown. But I really hope I don't end up being too far N for this one after looking like I was in practically the sweet spot for a while now.

[hawkstwelve]

 

[hawkstwelve]

Current thinking on totals from FSD. The previous map issued yesterday had T-3 inches for Sioux Falls so they have upped totals a bit.

[hawkstwelve]

GEFS probabilities of 3+ inches of snowfall for FSD went from 50-60% on the 00z run to 10-20% on the 06z run with it's pretty good shift SSE. Ouch.

Glad I stuck with 2-3 inches for my prediction. Depending on how things continue to trend down the homestretch, even that might be a little high. New 06z EPS mean has dropped down to 1.6 for MBY. Although at this range, probably better to stick with mesoscale and deterministic guidance instead of ensemble as they start to miss little details that become more important as we near the event. We shall see!

[Tom]

12z FV3...

[hawkstwelve]

12z 3km NAM looking kind of weak and sporadic but it's been playing catch up with the placement (it has been quite north for a while) so not sure how well it's handling things at this point.

[jaster220]

21 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z FV3...

CO & WY both go big! Why so lame in The Plains? Nice if Nebraska finally sees action tho.

[hawkstwelve]

Quite the change since the 00z run on the GFS. It's almost circled all the way back to it's original solution.

[Hoosier]

On the severe side, there's a sizable risk area for Tuesday with mention of a possible upgrade on future outlooks.  The forecaster who issued the outlook can be, well, a bit overzealous sometimes, but the potential is there for some notable severe weather, especially down south. 

[Clinton]

17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

On the severe side, there's a sizable risk area for Tuesday with mention of a possible upgrade on future outlooks.  The forecaster who issued the outlook can be, well, a bit overzealous sometimes, but the potential is there for some notable severe weather, especially down south. 

Seems like this area has had more than its fair share of severe weather the last few years.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Seems like this area has had more than its fair share of severe weather the last few years.

Indeed, and they are climo favored for it at this time of year.

[Clinton]

@Tom some more good evidence on that cycle length. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro continues the paring back of snow totals for some areas. Perhaps after all the hubub the initial GFS solution it showed a few days ago with the much weaker system will end up closer to being right.

I would imagine now that the system has entered the PNW that the models will be more accurate with the increase in data so these renewed weaker solutions might be closer to reality than those of a couple days ago. Although some mesoscale models are still disagreeing and keeping things snowier (also a few of them further north, even moreso than Sioux Falls).

It's such a narrow band setting up across the Plains that we might not know for sure which areas will score a couple inches until 24-36 hours before the event. Keeps things interesting I guess!

 

[Hoosier]

If this is the environment in the Arklamiss area on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, then there's likely going to be a problem.  Not much directional shear above 1 km, but you can find a lot of tornado outbreaks that didn't have much directional shear above 1 km.