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11/28 - 11/30 Plains/GL's System


Tom

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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

That's the best looking GEFS mean yet. Pair that with the 06z GFS and the 06z Euro and it could be getting interesting in the 4th quarter of the game.

Still thinking 2-3 inches for SE SD is a good call though... For now. 

Should be a nice WWA event for yby. Wonder why Uncle Ukie's the only model excited about LES in SWMI? 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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46 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Should be a nice WWA event for yby. Wonder why Uncle Ukie's the only model excited about LES in SWMI? 

Check out the 6z GFS, it looks similar to last nights Canadian that got my attention but develops a new center over eastern Michigan and brings some snow to a lot of the state.  @westMJim may do well here.

1669917600-eJPyjDxNmvQ.png

Hopefully we can bump totals for @CentralNebWeather and other Nebraska folks over the next few days.  Parts of Nebraska did well precip wise in October 11th and 12th.   Centralnebweather reported a .25 but some on the east side of the state got near an inch.

1669917600-VVNdBDX5TZ0.png

Here are some other rain totals that were reported here on Oct 11th and 12th.

BMT- .75

FV Mike- .65

Hawkeye .23 but noted 1 inch amounts very close to his home

WestMJim- 1.04

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18 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Check out the 6z GFS, it looks similar to last nights Canadian that got my attention but develops a new center over eastern Michigan and brings some snow to a lot of the state.

1669917600-eJPyjDxNmvQ.png

Hopefully we can bump totals for @CentralNebWeather and other Nebraska folks over the next few days.  Parts of Nebraska did well precip wise in October 11th and 12th.   Centralnebweather reported a .25 but some on the east side of the state got near an inch.

1669917600-VVNdBDX5TZ0.png

Here are some other rain totals that were reported here on Oct 11th and 12th.

BMT- .75

FV Mike- .65

Hawkeye .23 but noted 1 inch amounts very close to his home

WestMJim- 1.04

Thx, was just about to review models just on behalf of LES potentials alone. Now this development would be more like what the GFS was flashing about idk? 4-5 days ago at very LR. Nice to have TWO systems of interest on the board at once! That's an active pattern in my book. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Sure enough @Niko's place getting slammed early Thurs morning:

gfs_ref_frzn_ncus_20.png

 

Wouldn't this be a "plot twist"!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Sure enough @Niko's place getting slammed early Thurs morning:

gfs_ref_frzn_ncus_20.png

 

Wouldn't this be a "plot twist"!

I had been waiting for the models to show this and had just about given up on it.  The AO and NAO are dipping hard at this time and should deliver for the Lakes.  I won't even pretend to understand the thermals that your area gets but where it gets cold enough it should snow a lot lol.

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15 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I had been waiting for the models to show this and had just about given up on it.  The AO and NAO are dipping hard at this time and should deliver for the Lakes.  I won't even pretend to understand the thermals that your area gets but where it gets cold enough it should snow a lot lol.

Well, I'm in the "crap corner" of The Mitten when it comes to thermal odds stacked-up against me. Wayne Cnty metro is like a land all alone. Anywhere else N and/or W should have a much better shot of seeing snow from these trends.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Check out the 6z GFS, it looks similar to last nights Canadian that got my attention but develops a new center over eastern Michigan and brings some snow to a lot of the state.  @westMJim may do well here.

1669917600-eJPyjDxNmvQ.png

Hopefully we can bump totals for @CentralNebWeather and other Nebraska folks over the next few days.  Parts of Nebraska did well precip wise in October 11th and 12th.   Centralnebweather reported a .25 but some on the east side of the state got near an inch.

1669917600-VVNdBDX5TZ0.png

Here are some other rain totals that were reported here on Oct 11th and 12th.

BMT- .75

FV Mike- .65

Hawkeye .23 but noted 1 inch amounts very close to his home

WestMJim- 1.04

That might have been one of the last times we’ve seen moisture. How sad is that?  

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Looking good for the TC. And I'll be up here during that time frame so I'm happy about that. I'll prolly head down to the IA home Wed pm for a couple days.

I see the 12z GFS OP still wants to stay a bit south and weaker. Seems like it's still the outlier. Ensemble mean is still in the north camp. Looks like a high end advisory.....maybe Warning level??? Time will tell!

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35 minutes ago, westMJim said:

If that snow fall map were to come true that would be more of a east side of the state event. But the low looks too close to were the highest snow fall amounts are.

Yes. Models really struggling to sort this out. But after months of non-stop boring wx, getting 2 systems this week is like winning the Lotto!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GRR

-- Tuesday night into Wednesday night --

A more coherent Rossby wave trough propagating through the CONUS
midweek will feature sharper baroclinicity and consequently more
intense mid to upper level jet kinematics over the Great Lakes.
This will be a rain changing to light or moderate lake-enhanced
snow kind of event, though there is still quite a spread in QPF
among ensemble members. Some models within the ensembles point
toward a potential wind advisory especially for the lakeshore,
behind the cold front on Wednesday.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

GRR

-- Tuesday night into Wednesday night --

A more coherent Rossby wave trough propagating through the CONUS
midweek will feature sharper baroclinicity and consequently more
intense mid to upper level jet kinematics over the Great Lakes.
This will be a rain changing to light or moderate lake-enhanced
snow kind of event, though there is still quite a spread in QPF
among ensemble members. Some models within the ensembles point
toward a potential wind advisory especially for the lakeshore,
behind the cold front on Wednesday.

I'd actually say that the wind aspect is probably one of the higher confidence aspects of this.  Really just about no matter how it evolves, it's gonna get windy in the area.

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

12z EURO...

image.png

Euro sticking to a one-n-done SLP deepening into CON. Curious to see if the CMC and GFS are out to lunch developing a secondary

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z GFS continues its theme of lagging the CF advancement and popping a 2ndry SLP. Now flashing a 980's SLP over the Georgian Bay area. This could be pretty dynamic. Have not had a RN-->SN event work out here in quite a while. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_18.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The trailing upper level energy looks pretty robust.  I could totally imagine the models trending toward a quicker developing secondary surface low on future runs, but we'll see how it goes.  The faster that this secondary develops, the better that prospects would be for a second swath of accumulating snow.

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Fairly significant shift S ( at least at this range) on the Euro,, maybe the CMC is on to something. - caa quicker and system not as deep this run.

12Z Euro (10:1)

sn10_acc.us_mw.png00Z Euro (most recent)- 10:1

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Weaker and  S-SE trend also on 06ZGFS. My .02 is many on NW-N end get dry aired to death. Much thinner band WWA snows -- which makes sense after reading the local AWD's and current Winter Storm Watch is placed.... pretty much turning out to be maybe? WWA for the Twin Cities but bullseye for NW WI??  Mood flakes maybe here in C.IA- but it's late NOV. KDSM all ready over avg for snowfall for NOV-- A few more tenths or so will not hurt when it looked NIL just 24-36 hours ago.

06Z GFS-

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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21 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z FV3...

snku_acc.us_nc.png

CO & WY both go big! Why so lame in The Plains? Nice if Nebraska finally sees action tho.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On the severe side, there's a sizable risk area for Tuesday with mention of a possible upgrade on future outlooks.  The forecaster who issued the outlook can be, well, a bit overzealous sometimes, but the potential is there for some notable severe weather, especially down south. 

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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

On the severe side, there's a sizable risk area for Tuesday with mention of a possible upgrade on future outlooks.  The forecaster who issued the outlook can be, well, a bit overzealous sometimes, but the potential is there for some notable severe weather, especially down south. 

Seems like this area has had more than its fair share of severe weather the last few years.

image.png.0893f084cec73fabb575527da26c7bde.png

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14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

00Z-20221127_GFSUS_500_avort-72-96-100-100.gif.9427ff24eef6411a27fde6b8c2c89b3e.gif

Ufortunately for us here in MI, the GFS seems to be on its own island with that scenario. Nevertheless, reading APX's am dialogue, I could see some LES belt counties getting a Watch for the Wed into Thursday am blast post-CF

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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59 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If this is the environment in the Arklamiss area on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, then there's likely going to be a problem.  Not much directional shear above 1 km, but you can find a lot of tornado outbreaks that didn't have much directional shear above 1 km.

256788289_2022112712_NAM_066_34.13-90.05_severe_ml.thumb.png.e51c2f391a3fdeb4241436027487a845.png

Just re-watched this last night. At 0:32 into the vid is the soundtrack from dude's (Eddie something later credited in the production) home video. The roaring and TOR sirens combined with the lightning flashes of that monster is one of the eeriest wx events ever captured. Stuff of nightmares if you're at all fearful of twisters in general. To know that Peeps had an hour's "heads-up" and chose to just stay put and perish instead of getting in their car and driving to anywhere out of the path is just nuts to my way of thinking. Saying they had "nowhere to go". What?? How about just anywhere a few miles outside the path for starters. Unless you're disabled, cannot drive, and are left totally alone you've just gotta get out of the way.  

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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