Hoosier Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Even with shallow mixing heights, think that winds may be knocking on the door of advisory criteria in MO/IL/IN during the day on Tuesday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 GFS continues a slight shift S with most of 00Z guidance. A white ground would be nice again. - 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Yikes...TC is riding the north edge on the GFS and NAM. That cold dry air may win out. Never good being on the north side of these type of systems. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 ^^ that's a weenie band - but a good start. Still think this shifts E and slightly S. Good luck to ALL!!! The reason the Twin Cities has not done anything --means something is up. MPX is ansy between WWA and WSW no doubt. My .02-- wash. Not a big deal as they say in AFD. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 20 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Winter Weather Advisory posted for my county. NWS calling for 2-4 inches. Looks like most of the 06z suite (NAM, NBM, RGEM, HRDPS, and Euro) either moved the band slightly NNW and/or upped totals again. Good luck bud! Hope you finally get to see it snow at a good clip and whiten up the brown ground and make it feel like Winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 See what happens, but looks promising up this way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Where that fronto band sets up might be a nowcast. Should be a band of 6+. Someone will score nicely! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 NAM is north of the GFS, what else is new. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 6z Euro heavier on QPF and further north than the 12z GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 And then we have the Canadian model, which is a full fledged winter storm warning for a huge swath. Quite the model discrepancy at this point for so close to the system. They all agree on the general idea at least, but strength and placement (as always) differ significantly. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Curious to see what MPX does after the full 12z suite. Should hoist a watch or advisory for the TC metro. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 On the severe side, there's a moderate risk down south. Pretty much your classic multi-faceted late fall storm system. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Though it can't compare to what looks to transpire farther south, there is a narrow tongue of SBCAPE that develops northward toward southern Lake Michigan late Tuesday. I don't know whether it will be enough to result in some isolated severe weather, but it's one of those 'don't be surprised if it happens' kind of things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Pretty decent jog south on the Euro, especially over by the TC's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Yeah that kinda sucks. Should be at least advisory criteria here in the TC yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 MPX just hoisted an advisory for 3-6" and said upgrade to warning is possible if confidence increases for 6+ 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 WSW let's get it on the ground now...trails open soon! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: Trend gif of the past few NAM runs. Latest run made a decent jog SSE with the heaviest amounts. Also upped amounts within the band of the band... Now showing almost a foot in S Central MN. Not feeling too confident for tomorrow as I'm thinking I might be just a bit too far NW but even 1-2 inches would be nice and would easily be the most we've gotten so far this season. Kind of upped me a little. We'll see. Was just put in a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing drizzle first then potentially 1-2" with wind. I'd guess closer to 1/2-1". Not expecting much, so I hope to be pleasantly surprised. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 30 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: RAP is taking a page out of the RGEM playbook and just keeps up up upping totals. I don't follow this model too much so I'm not sure how accurate it is but it definitely seems to be smoking too much of that good good, if you know what I mean... It’s good at predicting mesoscale banding but don’t get sucked into the higher totals so much. I use it a guidance to show where the heaviest band will likely lay out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 I like the RAP at less than 18 hours. 18-24 hours can be good sometimes. Beyond 24 hours and especially out at 36-48 hours, well, beware lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 19 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Something not touched on as much so far - the nice little shot of cold air accompanying this system. Big 24hr temperature changes for many folks. I live for 24hr temp drops! Seriously tho, nice to see a classic late autumn CF bringin a punch! Should be a blast next time around. So, where are all the NEB Peeps that are usually on here when something worth following is finally in their region?? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 00z HRRR 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 8 hours ago, Hoosier said: Though it can't compare to what looks to transpire farther south, there is a narrow tongue of SBCAPE that develops northward toward southern Lake Michigan late Tuesday. I don't know whether it will be enough to result in some isolated severe weather, but it's one of those 'don't be surprised if it happens' kind of things. The HRRR is explicitly showing some enhanced gusts with the squall line that gets going along the front 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 The 0z NAMs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 This has definitely trended back north. A day ago a few models were mostly missing MSP to the south. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The HRRR is explicitly showing some enhanced gusts with the squall line that gets going along the front Looks like they fall apart for SEMI, though your map doesn't show fully. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Looks like they fall apart for SEMI, though your map doesn't show fully. Yeah it does start weakening then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah it does start weakening then. DTX pretty much "meh" on even advisory level winds due to a couple factors mitigating mixing potential. That's fine, we got the windstorm a month early with the mid-October spinner. Looks like best chances for higher wind gusts will be with the two shower set-ups: Forecast soundings and hires data supports some beefy low topped convective shower potential between 09-12Z along the front. The potential will exist for briefly heavy rainfall rates both Tue evening and early Wed morning, but a strong consensus exist for 0.25 to 0.33 of an inch. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Looks like MSP has been upgraded to a WSW. "Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches, with locally higher amounts possible." Sounds like @james1976might score the jackpot! Yep, takes on a nice angle/path orientation for MSP: 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 10 minutes ago, jaster220 said: DTX pretty much "meh" on even advisory level winds due to a couple factors mitigating mixing potential. That's fine, we got the windstorm a month early with the mid-October spinner. Looks like best chances for higher wind gusts will be with the two shower set-ups: Forecast soundings and hires data supports some beefy low topped convective shower potential between 09-12Z along the front. The potential will exist for briefly heavy rainfall rates both Tue evening and early Wed morning, but a strong consensus exist for 0.25 to 0.33 of an inch. Yeah I'd agree on the synoptic winds mostly staying under advisory criteria. I think the IL/IN area may flirt with it tomorrow with some gusts around 45 mph, but it's borderline and the duration of that looks somewhat limited and none of the offices have issued an advisory. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 23 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Looks like MSP has been upgraded to a WSW. "Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches, with locally higher amounts possible." Sounds like @james1976might score the jackpot! Yup! Was just coming in here to mention this. Surprised they upgraded this soon but definitely stoked. And it's a daytime event! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah I'd agree on the synoptic winds mostly staying under advisory criteria. I think the IL/IN area may flirt with it tomorrow with some gusts around 45 mph, but it's borderline and the duration of that looks somewhat limited and none of the offices have issued an advisory. What looked like a real blasting in of BN temps has become nothing more than a brief interlude, and a wash-rinse-repeat pattern which we are on the boring side of. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 @hawkstwelve, its showtime...I'm sure you like the Heavy Snow wording in your Grid! Hope you score at least 3" from this one. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 gonna be riding the edge here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Coming down good here in the TC. Forecast was bumped up to 5-8" 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 This storm fits perfectly well with the storm back on Oct. 11th when we had a cold front move through. My area got missed out but Lincoln, Omaha, KC and areas east was hit by severe weather. That would put this years cycle around 49 days. Currently 23 degrees and had a freezing rain mix earlier this morning but that has since changed over to snow. The snow is blowing around pretty good and has a nice winter feel out there! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, gabel23 said: This storm fits perfectly well with the storm back on Oct. 11th when we had a cold front move through. My area got missed out but Lincoln, Omaha, KC and areas east was hit by severe weather. That would put this years cycle around 49 days. Currently 23 degrees and had a freezing rain mix earlier this morning but that has since changed over to snow. The snow is blowing around pretty good and has a nice winter feel out there! We have a 10:00 AM late start this morning. Very slick in town when I came to school at 9:15 AM with snow blowing sideways, but no visibility issues. We aren't sending out busses today. Going to be many absences I'd assume. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Starting here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 20 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: We have a 10:00 AM late start this morning. Very slick in town when I came to school at 9:15 AM with snow blowing sideways, but no visibility issues. We aren't sending out busses today. Going to be many absences I'd assume. Very slick around here too. We started with a late start but we have since called off school. A lot of the area schools around ended up closing. We haven't received a ton of precip but man it looks like winter out there at least! We have a decent band of snow that will be moving through the area that might drop an inch of snow if we are lucky. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 On 11/26/2022 at 9:14 AM, jaster220 said: Sure enough @Niko's place getting slammed early Thurs morning: Wouldn't this be a "plot twist"! That sure looks veryyyyy nice to me amigo!!!!! Make it happen, will ya!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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