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11/28 - 11/30 Plains/GL's System


Tom
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14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

00Z-20221127_GFSUS_500_avort-72-96-100-100.gif.9427ff24eef6411a27fde6b8c2c89b3e.gif

Ufortunately for us here in MI, the GFS seems to be on its own island with that scenario. Nevertheless, reading APX's am dialogue, I could see some LES belt counties getting a Watch for the Wed into Thursday am blast post-CF

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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59 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If this is the environment in the Arklamiss area on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, then there's likely going to be a problem.  Not much directional shear above 1 km, but you can find a lot of tornado outbreaks that didn't have much directional shear above 1 km.

256788289_2022112712_NAM_066_34.13-90.05_severe_ml.thumb.png.e51c2f391a3fdeb4241436027487a845.png

Just re-watched this last night. At 0:32 into the vid is the soundtrack from dude's (Eddie something later credited in the production) home video. The roaring and TOR sirens combined with the lightning flashes of that monster is one of the eeriest wx events ever captured. Stuff of nightmares if you're at all fearful of twisters in general. To know that Peeps had an hour's "heads-up" and chose to just stay put and perish instead of getting in their car and driving to anywhere out of the path is just nuts to my way of thinking. Saying they had "nowhere to go". What?? How about just anywhere a few miles outside the path for starters. Unless you're disabled, cannot drive, and are left totally alone you've just gotta get out of the way.  

 

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18z 3km NAM was a nice improvement over 12z, which NWS FSD mentions in their afternoon AFD. 18z RGEM 10km also increased amounts a bit.

This mid level frontogenesis will lower through the morning hours
Tuesday, and thus refocus itself further south. Latest guidance has
shown a southward trend over previous guidance, and with an influx
of dry air on the north side, tend to think the northern gradient in
snow amounts will be rather sharp once initial frontogenetic band
diminishes. In coordination with WPC and surrounding offices, have
pushed axis of healthiest snow amounts south and trimmed QPF values
somewhat. It`s worth noting that a brief examination of the
currently arriving 18z HRRR/NAM guidance shows some hint of a
trend back north however.

25AFC737-10A0-43FC-B376-53C7B0230586.png

1FCA2D41-1C02-437C-B713-AB58965146FE.png

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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^^

that's a weenie band - but a good start.   Still think this shifts E and slightly S. Good luck to ALL!!!  The reason the Twin Cities has not done anything --means something is up. MPX is ansy between WWA and WSW no doubt.  My .02-- wash. Not a big deal as they say in AFD.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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20 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Winter Weather Advisory posted for my county. NWS calling for 2-4 inches. Looks like most of the 06z suite (NAM, NBM, RGEM, HRDPS, and Euro) either moved the band slightly NNW and/or upped totals again.

Good luck bud!  Hope you finally get to see it snow at a good clip and whiten up the brown ground and make it feel like Winter.

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And then we have the Canadian model, which is a full fledged winter storm warning for a huge swath.  Quite the model discrepancy at this point for so close to the system.  They all agree on the general idea at least, but strength and placement (as always) differ significantly.  

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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Season Snowfall: ~ 6.00"

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12z GEM coming in with easily it's snowiest run yet. Can't wait till we can start ignoring models and just focus on radar/real time analysis. Almost to that time!

Edit: Woops, Bud already posted this. Always a day late and a dollar short!

gem-all-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-9788000.png

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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Though it can't compare to what looks to transpire farther south, there is a narrow tongue of SBCAPE that develops northward toward southern Lake Michigan late Tuesday.  I don't know whether it will be enough to result in some isolated severe weather, but it's one of those 'don't be surprised if it happens' kind of things.

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Trend gif of the past few NAM runs. Latest run made a decent jog SSE with the heaviest amounts. Also upped amounts within the band of the band... Now showing almost a foot in S Central MN.

Not feeling too confident for tomorrow as I'm thinking I might be just a bit too far NW but even 1-2 inches would be nice and would easily be the most we've gotten so far this season. 

trend-nam4km-2022112818-f030.snku_acc.us_nc.gif

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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Latest RAP has over 6 inches falling in FSD by 11AM tomorrow.

Kind of odd to have such a wide range of possible snow totals (anywhere from 0.5-6+ inches for FSD) less than 24 hours out. Disagreements on placement of the snow band, sure that makes sense, but even models that show the band in the same spot vary wildly on total amounts.

snku_acc.us_nc.png

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Trend gif of the past few NAM runs. Latest run made a decent jog SSE with the heaviest amounts. Also upped amounts within the band of the band... Now showing almost a foot in S Central MN.

Not feeling too confident for tomorrow as I'm thinking I might be just a bit too far NW but even 1-2 inches would be nice and would easily be the most we've gotten so far this season. 

trend-nam4km-2022112818-f030.snku_acc.us_nc.gif

Kind of upped me a little.  We'll see.  Was just put in a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing drizzle first then potentially 1-2" with wind.  I'd guess closer to 1/2-1".  Not expecting much, so I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

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RAP is taking a page out of the RGEM playbook and just keeps up up upping totals.

I don't follow this model too much so I'm not sure how accurate it is but it definitely seems to be smoking too much of that good good, if you know what I mean... 😉

snku_acc.us_nc (1).png

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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30 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

RAP is taking a page out of the RGEM playbook and just keeps up up upping totals.

I don't follow this model too much so I'm not sure how accurate it is but it definitely seems to be smoking too much of that good good, if you know what I mean... 😉

snku_acc.us_nc (1).png

It’s good at predicting mesoscale banding but don’t get sucked into the higher totals so much.  I use it a guidance to show where the heaviest band will likely lay out.

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19 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Something not touched on as much so far - the nice little shot of cold air accompanying this system. Big 24hr temperature changes for many folks.

gfs-deterministic-conus-temp_change_24hr-9809600.png

gfs-deterministic-conus-temp_change_24hr-9881600.png

I live for 24hr temp drops! 

Seriously tho, nice to see a classic late autumn CF bringin a punch! Should be a blast next time around. 

So, where are all the NEB Peeps that are usually on here when something worth following is finally in their region??

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Though it can't compare to what looks to transpire farther south, there is a narrow tongue of SBCAPE that develops northward toward southern Lake Michigan late Tuesday.  I don't know whether it will be enough to result in some isolated severe weather, but it's one of those 'don't be surprised if it happens' kind of things.

The HRRR is explicitly showing some enhanced gusts with the squall line that gets going along the front

00Z-20221129_HRRRNIL_prec_radar-25-31-100-100.gif.9aeef2e719d8866bd3781bd94e8d45b3.gif

 

00Z-20221129_HRRRNIL_sfc_gust-25-31-100-100.gif.d1d45f18e054011d29d5c6946172cc44.gif

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