11/28 - 11/30 Plains/GL's System

[jaster220]

14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Ufortunately for us here in MI, the GFS seems to be on its own island with that scenario. Nevertheless, reading APX's am dialogue, I could see some LES belt counties getting a Watch for the Wed into Thursday am blast post-CF

[jaster220]

59 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If this is the environment in the Arklamiss area on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, then there's likely going to be a problem.  Not much directional shear above 1 km, but you can find a lot of tornado outbreaks that didn't have much directional shear above 1 km.

Just re-watched this last night. At 0:32 into the vid is the soundtrack from dude's (Eddie something later credited in the production) home video. The roaring and TOR sirens combined with the lightning flashes of that monster is one of the eeriest wx events ever captured. Stuff of nightmares if you're at all fearful of twisters in general. To know that Peeps had an hour's "heads-up" and chose to just stay put and perish instead of getting in their car and driving to anywhere out of the path is just nuts to my way of thinking. Saying they had "nowhere to go". What?? How about just anywhere a few miles outside the path for starters. Unless you're disabled, cannot drive, and are left totally alone you've just gotta get out of the way.  

 

[hawkstwelve]

18z 3km NAM was a nice improvement over 12z, which NWS FSD mentions in their afternoon AFD. 18z RGEM 10km also increased amounts a bit.

This mid level frontogenesis will lower through the morning hours
Tuesday, and thus refocus itself further south. Latest guidance has
shown a southward trend over previous guidance, and with an influx
of dry air on the north side, tend to think the northern gradient in
snow amounts will be rather sharp once initial frontogenetic band
diminishes. In coordination with WPC and surrounding offices, have
pushed axis of healthiest snow amounts south and trimmed QPF values
somewhat. It`s worth noting that a brief examination of the
currently arriving 18z HRRR/NAM guidance shows some hint of a
trend back north however.

[hawkstwelve]

18z Euro moved back north a bit and upped totals in a lot of spots.

[gabel23]

Gonna get screwed out of this one too. Kiss my you know what drought. This pattern is setting up to be so close but yet so far away….

[jaster220]

 

[Grizzcoat]

00Z 3Km Nam is way S o the W end. Brings accumulating snow well into C.IA / S.IA -

[Hoosier]

Even with shallow mixing heights, think that winds may be knocking on the door of advisory criteria in MO/IL/IN during the day on Tuesday.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS continues a slight shift S with most of  00Z guidance. A white ground would be nice again. -

[hawkstwelve]

00z GEM upped totals for pretty much everyone within the band.

 

[hawkstwelve]

 

[hawkstwelve]

Something not touched on as much so far - the nice little shot of cold air accompanying this system. Big 24hr temperature changes for many folks.

[james1976]

Yikes...TC is riding the north edge on the GFS and NAM. That cold dry air may win out. Never good being on the north side of these type of systems.

[hawkstwelve]

Winter Weather Advisory posted for my county. NWS calling for 2-4 inches. Looks like most of the 06z suite (NAM, NBM, RGEM, HRDPS, and Euro) either moved the band slightly NNW and/or upped totals again.

[Grizzcoat]

^^

that's a weenie band - but a good start.   Still think this shifts E and slightly S. Good luck to ALL!!!  The reason the Twin Cities has not done anything --means something is up. MPX is ansy between WWA and WSW no doubt.  My .02-- wash. Not a big deal as they say in AFD.

[Tom]

20 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Winter Weather Advisory posted for my county. NWS calling for 2-4 inches. Looks like most of the 06z suite (NAM, NBM, RGEM, HRDPS, and Euro) either moved the band slightly NNW and/or upped totals again.

Good luck bud!  Hope you finally get to see it snow at a good clip and whiten up the brown ground and make it feel like Winter.

[hawkstwelve]

The mean of the NCEP SREF plumes jumped from under 3 to a little over 4 inches overnight.

[hawkstwelve]

Although I'm not a huge fan of using it for 24hr+ forecasts, the 12z HRRRRRRR was a nice jump up in totals vs it's 06z run.

[hawkstwelve]

 

[Madtown]

See what happens, but looks promising up this way.

[hawkstwelve]

Latest RGEM continues to increase snow totals. It's now on the higher end of guidance.

[james1976]

Where that fronto band sets up might be a nowcast. Should be a band of 6+. Someone will score nicely!

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS continues to be among the more southerly models with where the band sets up.

Definitely agree with James in that this will mostly boil down to a nowcast as the event starts tomorrow morning.

[bud2380]

NAM is north of the GFS, what else is new.  

 

[bud2380]

 

6z Euro heavier on QPF and further north than the 12z GFS

 

[bud2380]

And then we have the Canadian model, which is a full fledged winter storm warning for a huge swath.  Quite the model discrepancy at this point for so close to the system.  They all agree on the general idea at least, but strength and placement (as always) differ significantly.  

 

[hawkstwelve]

12z GEM coming in with easily it's snowiest run yet. Can't wait till we can start ignoring models and just focus on radar/real time analysis. Almost to that time!

Edit: Woops, Bud already posted this. Always a day late and a dollar short!

[james1976]

Curious to see what MPX does after the full 12z suite. Should hoist a watch or advisory for the TC metro.

[hawkstwelve]

15z RAP shows a slight lessening of amounts vs it's 09z run and a slight shift south, which was expected as it remained among the more northerly solutions.

[Hoosier]

On the severe side, there's a moderate risk down south.

Pretty much your classic multi-faceted late fall storm system.

[Hoosier]

Though it can't compare to what looks to transpire farther south, there is a narrow tongue of SBCAPE that develops northward toward southern Lake Michigan late Tuesday.  I don't know whether it will be enough to result in some isolated severe weather, but it's one of those 'don't be surprised if it happens' kind of things.

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 00z Euro...

[bud2380]

Pretty decent jog south on the Euro, especially over by the TC's.  

[james1976]

Yeah that kinda sucks. Should be at least advisory criteria here in the TC yet

[hawkstwelve]

Trend gif of the past few NAM runs. Latest run made a decent jog SSE with the heaviest amounts. Also upped amounts within the band of the band... Now showing almost a foot in S Central MN.

Not feeling too confident for tomorrow as I'm thinking I might be just a bit too far NW but even 1-2 inches would be nice and would easily be the most we've gotten so far this season. 

[james1976]

MPX just hoisted an advisory for 3-6" and said upgrade to warning is possible if confidence increases for 6+

[Madtown]

WSW let's get it on the ground now...trails open soon!

[hawkstwelve]

I guess the RGEM is just going to keep upping totals.

To hell with the other models, we're having a snowstorm baby!  

[hawkstwelve]

Latest RAP has over 6 inches falling in FSD by 11AM tomorrow.

Kind of odd to have such a wide range of possible snow totals (anywhere from 0.5-6+ inches for FSD) less than 24 hours out. Disagreements on placement of the snow band, sure that makes sense, but even models that show the band in the same spot vary wildly on total amounts.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Trend gif of the past few NAM runs. Latest run made a decent jog SSE with the heaviest amounts. Also upped amounts within the band of the band... Now showing almost a foot in S Central MN.

Not feeling too confident for tomorrow as I'm thinking I might be just a bit too far NW but even 1-2 inches would be nice and would easily be the most we've gotten so far this season. 

Kind of upped me a little.  We'll see.  Was just put in a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing drizzle first then potentially 1-2" with wind.  I'd guess closer to 1/2-1".  Not expecting much, so I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

[hawkstwelve]

RAP is taking a page out of the RGEM playbook and just keeps up up upping totals.

I don't follow this model too much so I'm not sure how accurate it is but it definitely seems to be smoking too much of that good good, if you know what I mean... 

[Tom]

30 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

RAP is taking a page out of the RGEM playbook and just keeps up up upping totals.

I don't follow this model too much so I'm not sure how accurate it is but it definitely seems to be smoking too much of that good good, if you know what I mean... 

It’s good at predicting mesoscale banding but don’t get sucked into the higher totals so much.  I use it a guidance to show where the heaviest band will likely lay out.

[Hoosier]

I like the RAP at less than 18 hours.  18-24 hours can be good sometimes.  Beyond 24 hours and especially out at 36-48 hours, well, beware lol

[hawkstwelve]

18z Euro with a very slight adjustment of the band to the NW vs it's 12z run. Also upped totals a little bit.

[jaster220]

19 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Something not touched on as much so far - the nice little shot of cold air accompanying this system. Big 24hr temperature changes for many folks.

I live for 24hr temp drops! 

Seriously tho, nice to see a classic late autumn CF bringin a punch! Should be a blast next time around. 

So, where are all the NEB Peeps that are usually on here when something worth following is finally in their region??

[Hawkeye]

00z HRRR

[Hoosier]

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Though it can't compare to what looks to transpire farther south, there is a narrow tongue of SBCAPE that develops northward toward southern Lake Michigan late Tuesday.  I don't know whether it will be enough to result in some isolated severe weather, but it's one of those 'don't be surprised if it happens' kind of things.

The HRRR is explicitly showing some enhanced gusts with the squall line that gets going along the front

 

[Clinton]

The 0z NAMs

[Hawkeye]

This has definitely trended back north.  A day ago a few models were mostly missing MSP to the south.

 

[hawkstwelve]

Went from 1.5 inches on the 18z NAM to 5.3 on the 00z. Noice.