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11/28 - 11/30 Plains/GL's System


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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The HRRR is explicitly showing some enhanced gusts with the squall line that gets going along the front

00Z-20221129_HRRRNIL_prec_radar-25-31-100-100.gif.9aeef2e719d8866bd3781bd94e8d45b3.gif

 

00Z-20221129_HRRRNIL_sfc_gust-25-31-100-100.gif.d1d45f18e054011d29d5c6946172cc44.gif

Looks like they fall apart for SEMI, though your map doesn't show fully. 

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah it does start weakening then.

DTX pretty much "meh" on even advisory level winds due to a couple factors mitigating mixing potential. That's fine, we got the windstorm a month early with the mid-October spinner. Looks like best chances for higher wind gusts will be with the two shower set-ups:

Forecast
soundings and hires data supports some beefy low topped convective
shower potential between 09-12Z along the front. The potential will
exist for briefly heavy rainfall rates both Tue evening and early
Wed morning, but a strong consensus exist for 0.25 to 0.33 of an inch.

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like MSP has been upgraded to a WSW. "Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches, with locally higher amounts possible." 

Sounds like @james1976might score the jackpot!

Yep, takes on a nice angle/path orientation for MSP:

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_18.png

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

DTX pretty much "meh" on even advisory level winds due to a couple factors mitigating mixing potential. That's fine, we got the windstorm a month early with the mid-October spinner. Looks like best chances for higher wind gusts will be with the two shower set-ups:

Forecast
soundings and hires data supports some beefy low topped convective
shower potential between 09-12Z along the front. The potential will
exist for briefly heavy rainfall rates both Tue evening and early
Wed morning, but a strong consensus exist for 0.25 to 0.33 of an inch.

Yeah I'd agree on the synoptic winds mostly staying under advisory criteria.  I think the IL/IN area may flirt with it tomorrow with some gusts around 45 mph, but it's borderline and the duration of that looks somewhat limited and none of the offices have issued an advisory.  

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23 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like MSP has been upgraded to a WSW. "Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches, with locally higher amounts possible." 

Sounds like @james1976might score the jackpot!

Yup! Was just coming in here to mention this. Surprised they upgraded this soon but definitely stoked. And it's a daytime event!

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah I'd agree on the synoptic winds mostly staying under advisory criteria.  I think the IL/IN area may flirt with it tomorrow with some gusts around 45 mph, but it's borderline and the duration of that looks somewhat limited and none of the offices have issued an advisory.  

What looked like a real blasting in of BN temps has become nothing more than a brief interlude, and a wash-rinse-repeat pattern which we are on the boring side of. 

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I grabbed every major model's 00z kuchera snowfall forecast for three nearby sites. Just for fun, going to record them here and compare after the event to see which model(s) get the crown.

GFS

  •   FSD: 1.0
  •   MSP: 5.7
  •   OMA: 1.4

ECMWF

  •   FSD: 2.6
  •   MSP: 7.5
  •   OMA: 1.2

GEM

  •   FSD: 4.0
  •   MSP: 8.3
  •   OMA: 1.5

NAM

  •   FSD: 5.2
  •   MSP: 5.1
  •   OMA: 0.5

NBM

  •   FSD: 4.3 
  •   MSP: 6.3
  •   OMA: 0.34

HRRR

  •   FSD: 3.8
  •   MSP: 9.1
  •   OMA: 0.2

HRDPS

  •   FSD: 2.9
  •   MSP: 6.9
  •   OMA: 0.7

WRF FV3

  •   FSD: 1.4
  •   MSP: 6.44
  •   OMA: 0.98

ICON

  •   FSD: 3.22
  •   MSP: 8.82
  •   OMA: 1.12

 

Overall Average

  FSD: 3.23

  MSP: 7.1

  OMA: 0.84

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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FSD was at an inch as of 6am. 

It has that super socked-in feel with snow and wind causing very reduced visibility. Temp at 22. Hope the the band holds overhead long enough to get another inch or two. NWS seems to think 2 inches is our ceiling as the heaviest band stays off just to our SE where they expect 3-6.

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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Narrow, heavier band mentioned below moved through and brought some decent snowfall rates with it. Up to 2.75 inches which is enough to cover the grass so I'm pretty happy! It's also right in-between my original call last Thursday for 2-3 inches of snow. Not too shabby.

Snow is lightening up now as the heavier band sets up to the SE. Might have enough oomph to get us to 3 inches before it wraps up.

 

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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This storm fits perfectly well with the storm back on Oct. 11th when we had a cold front move through. My area got missed out but Lincoln, Omaha, KC and areas east was hit by severe weather. That would put this years cycle around 49 days. Currently 23 degrees and had a freezing rain mix earlier this morning but that has since changed over to snow. The snow is blowing around pretty good and has a nice winter feel out there! 

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6 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

This storm fits perfectly well with the storm back on Oct. 11th when we had a cold front move through. My area got missed out but Lincoln, Omaha, KC and areas east was hit by severe weather. That would put this years cycle around 49 days. Currently 23 degrees and had a freezing rain mix earlier this morning but that has since changed over to snow. The snow is blowing around pretty good and has a nice winter feel out there! 

We have a 10:00 AM late start this morning.  Very slick in town when I came to school at 9:15 AM with snow blowing sideways, but no visibility issues.  We aren't sending out busses today.  Going to be many absences I'd assume.

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20 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

We have a 10:00 AM late start this morning.  Very slick in town when I came to school at 9:15 AM with snow blowing sideways, but no visibility issues.  We aren't sending out busses today.  Going to be many absences I'd assume.

Very slick around here too. We started with a late start but we have since called off school. A lot of the area schools around ended up closing. We haven't received a ton of precip but man it looks like winter out there at least! We have a decent band of snow that will be moving through the area that might drop an inch of snow if we are lucky. 

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On 11/26/2022 at 9:14 AM, jaster220 said:

Sure enough @Niko's place getting slammed early Thurs morning:

gfs_ref_frzn_ncus_20.png

 

Wouldn't this be a "plot twist"!

That sure looks veryyyyy nice to me amigo!!!!! Make it happen, will ya!! 😎

Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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8 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Very slick around here too. We started with a late start but we have since called off school. A lot of the area schools around ended up closing. We haven't received a ton of precip but man it looks like winter out there at least! We have a decent band of snow that will be moving through the area that might drop an inch of snow if we are lucky. 

We should have called off.  Most schools around us also decided to close.  My absence list this morning is massive.  

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

That sure looks veryyyyy nice to me amigo!!!!! Make it happen, will ya!! 😎

It sure does(did). Too bad it was another GFS model fake-out. N Stream dominance ended up being the outcome, as is the case about 95% of the time. Oh well, its early and our region is known for late starting snow seasons. Those to our west getting hit now is actually perfect climo and I'm fine with it. I'd be more fine with it if we had a guarantee that our turn was coming later this month instead of February like it has been for years now. Ofc, you and others in SEMI got to enjoy that perfectly timed mini storm on Christmas two years ago while I got the shaft in between that and the LES to my west. Keep positive vibes for our turn amigo! 😉

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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14 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Getting a bit breezy so hard to measure but at least 6" down now. Awesome daytime storm.

Getting 6" of snow during daylight is about a once-per-year thing here in Cedar Rapids, if we're lucky.

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season snowfall: 16.6"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Sounds like stratus and light snow tomorrow after this storm moves out. Gonna be another very winter like day!

Today`s winter storm will wind down quickly this evening. Visible
satellite imagery has shown convective rolls feeding into our
snowband, indicating the instability present for this strongly
forced fgen band. This fgen band is already starting to push east
and we`ve seen places go from heavy snow to nothing within the
course of about 2 hours. Upstream of us temperatures are in the
teens and this is what is coming in for us tonight. That and another
batch of stratus. The one thing we may need to add to the forecast
for this stratus coming in tonight and lingering through much of the
day on Wednesday is some flurries/light snow. This stratus deck will
be located completely within the dendritic growth zone, with steep
low level lapse rates in the boundary layer from the differential
CAA. We`re not expecting any accumulations, but this looks like one
of the setups where there`s almost a continuous light snow falling
given how easy it is for the atmosphere to develop snow flakes.
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Solid totals.  The models that were further north (NAM if I recall) definitely won out.  The Euro tried to make a decent shift south yesterday, but that ended up not panning out.  Great hit for the Twin Cities area.  It was a direct hit for them.  

 

 

image.thumb.png.08f171c249cbee7dbfed1a473776820d.png

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Season Snowfall: ~ 6.00"

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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

Solid totals.  The models that were further north (NAM if I recall) definitely won out.  The Euro tried to make a decent shift south yesterday, but that ended up not panning out.  Great hit for the Twin Cities area.  It was a direct hit for them.  

 

 

image.thumb.png.08f171c249cbee7dbfed1a473776820d.png

I was guessing 6-7 here. Oakdale got 6.2 and I'm a few miles NW of there so thats about right.

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Congrats to @james1976 and anyone else who got in on today's snow action. Great to see the last-minute trends go from WWA to Warnings for quite a few counties in the jack-zone. This is also noteworthy that one of the blown-up GFS runs is actually going to happen!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_4.png

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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From APX. LOL. Imagine the wording in an AFD if they knew ahead of time an EF3 TOR would rip through their quaint community later that day.. 

Gusts of this magnitude, which will be relatively frequent, can
easily lead to downed limbs and powerlines, along with unsecured
objects flowing freely across the landscape.
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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Zzzzzzz. We were raked with .1" of snow, a light coat of ice, and my grill cover blew away in the 51 mph wind gust I had this morning about 6am.

Looking forward to the 60 on Friday, before it gets cold and dry and windy again.

Well at least we got a dusting of snow to cover up some of the brown and dry ground. It won’t last long but at least it looks a bit more like Winter out there… just hoping that we can somehow score a bigger snowfall/ storm at some point in the next few weeks, however I am remaining pessimistic at best. This pattern still sucks here!

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10pm St Paul News had a lot of 7-9 inch reports across the metro today. Just an awesome daytime snowstorm. I'm going with 6-7" here. Cleared the driveway and patio this evening. The sounds and sights of snowblowers and shovels in the neighborhood was awesome. And it's only the end of November. Let's keep it going.

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